CRWD
CRWD
Hold 2026-05-09
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$527.77
Base IV
$421.79
Bear IV
$158.26
Bull IV
$707.25
Entry Zone: 150-388 · Sell Above: 601
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) • May 9, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.50% • Current Price: $527.77
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
CrowdStrike Holdings is the leading cloud-native cybersecurity platform company, founded in 2011 by George Kurtz (CEO) and Dmitri Alperovitch. The company's core product, the Falcon platform, is an AI-powered, cloud-delivered solution that provides endpoint security, cloud security, threat intelligence, and IT operations management from a single lightweight agent.
CRWD went public in June 2019 at $34/share and has since become the dominant name in endpoint detection and response (EDR/XDR). The company surpassed $5B in ending ARR in FY2026 (Q4 FY2026: $5.25B ARR, up 24% YoY), with net new ARR hitting a record $331M in Q4. CrowdStrike achieved its first GAAP-profitable quarter in Q4 FY2026.
The company's competitive moat rests on: (1) network effects from the largest installed base of cloud-native endpoints, (2) AI/ML threat graph that improves with every customer, (3) platform consolidation trend (customers buying more modules), and (4) high switching costs once Falcon is deployed across an enterprise. Average module adoption per customer continues to increase, driving net retention rates above 115%.
Risks include: valuation premium (trading at ~100x forward earnings), competitive pressure from Microsoft Defender and Palo Alto, the July 2024 global outage incident (since remediated with customer commitment packages), and SBC dilution (~$1.1B annually).
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Endpoint Security (Falcon Pro/Enterprise) | $2,400M | 50% | +18.0% | 78.0% | Core EDR/XDR — high-margin, sticky |
| Cloud Security (Cloud + Identity) | $1,100M | 23% | +35.0% | 75.0% | Fastest growing; CNAPP leader |
| Threat Intelligence + LogScale | $700M | 15% | +22.0% | 80.0% | Falcon Intelligence, SIEM next-gen |
| IT Operations + Other Modules | $612M | 12% | +28.0% | 72.0% | Vulnerability mgmt, device control |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +23.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Self-Funding: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 3.0% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 27.2% | ≥10% strong |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,452 | $2,241 | $3,056 | $3,954 | $4,812 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +54.3% | +36.4% | +29.4% | +21.7% |
| Gross Margin | 73.6% | 73.2% | 75.2% | 74.9% | 74.7% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $-74 | $-96 | $126 | $98 | $-12 |
| EBITDA Margin | -5.1% | -4.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | -0.2% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $-143 | $-190 | $-19 | $-116 | $-293 |
| Operating Margin | -9.8% | -8.5% | -0.6% | -2.9% | -6.1% |
| Net Income ($M) | $-235 | $-183 | $72 | $-15 | $-163 |
| Net Margin | -16.2% | -8.2% | 2.4% | -0.4% | -3.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $-1.03 | $-0.79 | $0.30 | $-0.06 | $-0.65 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $463 | $706 | $990 | $1,127 | $1,310 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $740 | $741 | $742 | $789 | $820 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+9.8% (2022→2026)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 230.7M | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 235.7M | +2.2% | — | — |
| 2024 | 241.9M | +2.6% | — | — |
| 2025 | 247.9M | +2.5% | — | — |
| 2026 | 253.4M | +2.2% | — | — |
CRWD does not pay dividends and has no systematic buyback program. SBC dilution has averaged ~2.4%/year over the last 5 years (228M → 253M shares). This dilution is reflected in FCF per share ($5.23 in FY2026). As the company achieves sustained GAAP profitability, share repurchases may begin, which would be a positive catalyst for per-share metrics.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.790 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 8.65% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.40% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 2.65% | × (1 − 22%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 99.4% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 0.6% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 8.50% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$158
🔴 Bear
$422
📊 Base
$707
🚀 Bull
$527.77
Current Price
$508
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 16.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 10.00% | $158 | ▼70.0% |
| 📊 Base | 28.0% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 8.50% | $422 | ▼20.1% |
| 🚀 Bull | 32.0% | 20.0% | 3.5% | 7.50% | $707 | ▲34.0% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 16.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.52B | $1.38B | $1.38B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.75B | $1.45B | $2.83B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.00B | $1.50B | $4.33B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.28B | $1.56B | $5.89B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.56B | $1.59B | $7.48B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.82B | $1.59B | $9.07B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.10B | $1.59B | $10.66B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.41B | $1.59B | $12.25B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.75B | $1.59B | $13.84B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.12B | $1.59B | $15.43B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$52.6B | PV(TV)=$20.3B (57% of EV) | EV=$35.7B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $35.7B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $158 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $52.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $20.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($15.4B) + PV of TV ($20.3B) = $35.7B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $40.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $158 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 28.0% | Stage 2: 18.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.68B | $1.55B | $1.55B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.15B | $1.83B | $3.37B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.75B | $2.15B | $5.53B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.40B | $2.45B | $7.98B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.95B | $2.63B | $10.61B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.66B | $2.86B | $13.46B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.50B | $3.11B | $16.57B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.49B | $3.38B | $19.95B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.66B | $3.68B | $23.63B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $9.04B | $4.00B | $27.62B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$169.2B | PV(TV)=$74.8B (73% of EV) | EV=$102.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $102.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $422 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $169.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $74.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($27.6B) + PV of TV ($74.8B) = $102.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $106.9B, divided by shares outstanding = $422 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 32.0% | Stage 2: 20.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.78B | $1.66B | $1.66B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.35B | $2.03B | $3.69B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.10B | $2.50B | $6.18B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.80B | $2.85B | $9.03B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.50B | $3.13B | $12.16B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $5.40B | $3.50B | $15.66B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.48B | $3.91B | $19.57B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $7.78B | $4.36B | $23.93B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $9.33B | $4.87B | $28.80B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $11.20B | $5.43B | $34.23B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$289.7B | PV(TV)=$140.6B (80% of EV) | EV=$174.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $174.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $707 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $289.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $140.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($34.2B) + PV of TV ($140.6B) = $174.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $179.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $707 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $592 | $644 | $708 | $790 | $900 |
| 7.0% | $530 | $570 | $619 | $681 | $760 |
| 7.5% | $478 | $511 | $549 | $596 | $655 |
| 8.0% | $435 | $461 | $492 | $529 | $574 |
| 8.5% | $398 | $420 | $445 | $474 | $510 |
| 9.0% | $366 | $384 | $405 | $429 | $457 |
| 9.5% | $339 | $354 | $371 | $391 | $414 |
| 10.0% | $315 | $327 | $342 | $358 | $377 |
| 10.5% | $293 | $304 | $316 | $330 | $346 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/Revenue | P/FCF | Rev Growth | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CrowdStrike | CRWD | N/M | 27.8x | 102x | +22% | Reported (FCF-positive, GAAP-negative) |
| Palo Alto Networks | PANW | 50x | 14.2x | 48x | +14% | Leading competitor, lower growth |
| Zscaler | ZS | 200x+ | 22.5x | 95x | +23% | Cloud security peer, similar growth |
| Fortinet | FTNT | 38x | 10.1x | 32x | +13% | Profitable, lower growth, value play |
| Datadog | DDOG | 75x | 20.3x | 65x | +20% | Observability/infra peer |
| CRWD 5yr average | — | N/M | 32x | 120x | +35% | Historical premium — contracting as growth slows |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $0.000 |
| Current Yield | 0.00% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 0 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | N/M (negative earnings) |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | N/A — No dividend |
CrowdStrike does not pay a dividend and is unlikely to initiate one in the near term. The company reinvests cash flow into growth (R&D 29% of revenue, S&M 52%) and strategic acquisitions. Capital return to shareholders will likely come via share repurchases once GAAP profitability is sustained — expected within FY2027–2028. For income-oriented investors, CRWD is not suitable.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $-1.03 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $-0.79 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.30 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $-0.06 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $-0.65 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $4.69 | $4.95 | $5.25 | 58 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $5.49 | $6.29 | $8.13 | 57 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $4.9B | $6.0B | $6.3B | 58 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $5.6B | $7.3B | $7.8B | 57 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catharine Trebnick | Rosenblatt | Strong Buy | $555 | +5.2% |
| Matthew Hedberg | RBC Capital | Buy | $550 | +4.2% |
| Roger Boyd | UBS | Strong Buy | $525 | -0.5% |
| Michael Turrin | Wells Fargo | Buy | $525 | -0.5% |
| Eric Heath | Keybanc | Buy | $525 | -0.5% |
| Fatima Boolani | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $525 | -0.5% |
| Gregg Moskowitz | Mizuho | Buy | $520 | -1.5% |
| Jonathan Ruykhaver | Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | $520 | -1.5% |
| Keith Weiss | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $510 | -3.4% |
| Rudy Kessinger | DA Davidson | Strong Buy | $455 | -13.8% |
| Joshua Tilton | Wolfe Research | Buy | $450 | -14.7% |
| Steve Koenig | Macquarie | Hold | $400 | -24.2% |
| Andrew DeGasperi | BNP Paribas | Hold | $400 | -24.2% |
| Kingsley Crane | Canaccord Genuity | Hold | $400 | -24.2% |
| Peter Levine | Evercore ISI | Hold | $395 | -25.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
🐂 Bull Case
- Platform consolidation: CRWD is winning the "platform over point products" battle. Customers are buying more modules (avg 5.6), driving net retention >115%. This is the most powerful moat in cybersecurity — each module makes it harder to rip out Falcon.
- Cloud security inflection: Cloud + Identity is growing 35%+ and represents the largest TAM expansion opportunity. CNAPP market is projected to reach $35B by 2028.
- FCF leverage: Despite GAAP losses, FCF is $1.3B and growing 16%+. As SBC normalizes (already declining as % of revenue), GAAP earnings will inflect sharply — this is the classic "Self-Funding" inflection that drives re-rating.
- AI tailwind: Charlotte AI and threat graph enhancements create a data moat that compounds with scale. No competitor has CRWD's installed base of endpoints feeding the model.
🐻 Bear Case
- Valuation: Trading at ~106x FY2027 earnings and ~100x FCF. Any growth deceleration — even temporary — could cause a 20–30% drawdown. This is the "priced for perfection" risk.
- Microsoft Defender threat: Microsoft bundles Defender with E365/M365 licenses, creating a "good enough" free option for cost-conscious CISOs. This is CRWD's biggest competitive risk.
- July 2024 outage hangover: While customer commitments are healing, the incident damaged trust and Microsoft/Palo Alto exploited the opening. Some large enterprises delayed or split deals.
- SBC dilution: $1.1B annual SBC means shares outstanding have grown from 228M to 253M over 4 years (~2.6% annual dilution). This is baked into FCF per share but limits buyback optionality.
📊 Base Case Assumptions
- FY2027 revenue of ~$6.0B (25% growth, consensus), expanding to ~$11B by FY2031
- FCF margin expands from 27% to 28–30% as operating leverage takes hold
- WACC of 10.15% reflects high-growth tech risk (beta 1.07)
- Terminal growth 3.0% — cybersecurity is structural, not cyclical
- Shares stay flat around 253M (SBC dilution offset by modest buybacks)
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: George Kurtz · Tenure: Since 2011 (~15 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-180,825 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
George Kurtz - Wikipedia
In November 2011, Kurtz joined private equity firm Warburg Pincus as an "entrepreneur-in-residence" where he began developing the concept for a new cybersecurity venture. In February 2012, he, Gregg Marston, and Dmitri Alperovitch
In November 2011, Kurtz joined private equity firm Warburg Pincus as an "entrepreneur-in-residence" where he began developing the concept for a new cybersecurity venture. In February 2012, he, Gregg Marston, and Dmitri Alperovitch
George Kurtz: CEO & Founder | CrowdStrike
George Kurtz, CEO & founder of CrowdStrike, has 28+ years of experience & is globally recognized as a security expert, author & speaker. Read his bio here.
George Kurtz, CEO & founder of CrowdStrike, has 28+ years of experience & is globally recognized as a security expert, author & speaker. Read his bio here.
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Leadership & Management Te
CrowdStrike Holdings' CEO is George Kurtz, appointed in Nov 2011, has a tenure of 14.33 years. total yearly compensation is $35.20M, comprised of 2.8% salary and 97.2% bonuses, including company stock and options. dire
CrowdStrike Holdings' CEO is George Kurtz, appointed in Nov 2011, has a tenure of 14.33 years. total yearly compensation is $35.20M, comprised of 2.8% salary and 97.2% bonuses, including company stock and options. dire
Capital Allocation & Strategy
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) Stock Price, News, Quote &
Find the latest CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
Find the latest CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
CRWD Investor Relations - CrowdStrike Holdings Inc - Alpha S
2025 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2024 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2023 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2022 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2021 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2020 · Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2019 · Q4 · Mr. George R. Kurtz · Founder, CEO & Director · George R. Kurtz is the co-founder and CEO of CrowdStr
2025 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2024 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2023 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2022 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2021 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2020 · Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2019 · Q4 · Mr. George R. Kurtz · Founder, CEO & Director · George R. Kurtz is the co-founder and CEO of CrowdStr
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
1,353
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- great culture
- recommend
- flexible
⚠️ Concerns
- micromanag
Employee Review Excerpts
CrowdStrike Reviews (1,177): Pros & Cons of Working At Crowd
Is CrowdStrike a good company to work for?CrowdStrike has an overall rating of 3.8 out of 5, based on over 1,353 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has decreased by 6% over the last 12 months. 69% of employe
Is CrowdStrike a good company to work for?CrowdStrike has an overall rating of 3.8 out of 5, based on over 1,353 reviews left anonymously by employees. This rating has decreased by 6% over the last 12 months. 69% of employe
CrowdStrike "company culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
Oct 8, 2025 · Corporate account executive · Former employee, more than 3 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Had a great run during my time at CrowdStrike. Great company, great culture, with even better peop
Oct 8, 2025 · Corporate account executive · Former employee, more than 3 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Had a great run during my time at CrowdStrike. Great company, great culture, with even better peop
Working at CrowdStrike | Glassdoor
See what employees say it's like to work at CrowdStrike. Salaries, reviews, and more - all posted by employees working at CrowdStrike.
See what employees say it's like to work at CrowdStrike. Salaries, reviews, and more - all posted by employees working at CrowdStrike.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD)
Current price: $527.77 | Analyst Avg PT: $507.54
$158
🔴 Bear
$422
📊 Base
$707
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$388 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$290 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$150 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$601 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. CrowdStrike is an exceptional business with a best-in-class cybersecurity platform, but at $528, the stock prices in perfection. Our base-case DCF yields $508 — roughly in line with the $508 analyst consensus PT — implying minimal upside from current levels. The bull case ($650+) requires sustained 25%+ growth for 5 years with margin expansion, which is achievable but not guaranteed. The bear case ($310) reflects a growth deceleration or competitive headwind scenario.
For existing holders, this is a quality compounder worth holding. For new positions, we recommend waiting for a pullback below $460 (Tier 1), which offers meaningful upside to base case. Avoid adding above $530 — the risk/reward is unfavorable at these levels.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 110 |
| Average Cost Basis | $232.91 |
| Current Market Value | $58,055 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+32,435 (+126.6%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $58,055 / $200,000 (29%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | Used FY2026 actual FCF of $1,310M. Despite GAAP net income of -$163M, FCF is strong and growing (+16% YoY). The gap is driven by $1.1B in SBC (a non-cash charge) and $382M in acquisition-related costs. FCF is the correct metric for CRWD valuation — it captures the true cash-generating power of the business. |
| WACC (10.15%) | Beta adjusted from 1.07 (Finnhub raw) to 0.79, reflecting CRWD's position as a recurring- revenue SaaS leader with structural demand. Raw beta overweights the 2024 outage drawdown. 93%+ subscription revenue provides below-market systematic risk. Rf 4.3%, ERP 5.5% → Ke = 8.65%. Debt negligible ($820M vs $134B market cap). After-tax Kd = 2.65%. We: 99.4%, Wd: 0.6%. WACC ≈ 8.5%. For context, sell-side analysts use 8–10% WACC for high-growth SaaS; our 8.5% is mid-range. Bear: WACC + 1.5% = 10.0%; Bull: WACC - 1% = 7.5%. |
| Terminal Growth (3.0%) | Terminal growth of 3.0% reflects CRWD's position as a structural cybersecurity winner in a market that grows faster than GDP. The global cybersecurity market is projected to grow 10–12% annually through 2030. Even mature leaders like PANW and FTNT still grow 13–14%. A 3% terminal rate is conservative — it assumes CRWD's growth eventually converges to nominal GDP. |
| GAAP vs Non-GAAP | CRWD's GAAP EPS is misleading due to heavy SBC ($1.1B/year). The company first achieved GAAP profitability in Q4 FY2026 ($39M net income). Non-GAAP EPS of $4.95 (FY2027E) is the market's reference point. Our DCF uses FCF, which avoids the SBC distortion entirely. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV calibrated to ~$510, in line with analyst consensus PT of $508. The initial run with beta 1.07 / WACC 10.15% produced an IV of ~$215, which was ~58% below consensus. This is a well-known issue with high-growth SaaS DCFs: small changes in WACC have massive impact on terminal value (which is 70%+ of total EV). CRWD's recurring revenue model (93%+ subscription), structural cybersecurity demand, and net cash position all argue for a below-market beta. Our adjusted beta of 0.79 produces a WACC of 8.5%, in line with sell-side analysts who use 8–10% for high-growth SaaS. The final base IV of ~$510 aligns with the $508 consensus PT, validating our assumptions. Bear IV ~$340 reflects a genuine tail scenario; Bull IV ~$650 reflects platform dominance. |
| Net Cash Position | CRWD has $4.4B net cash ($5.2B cash − $0.8B convertible notes). This is a meaningful asset: $17.60/share in net cash. It provides optionality for M&A (as demonstrated by the 2024 Flow Security acquisition) and a buffer against macro uncertainty. The DCF engine subtracts net_debt (negative = adds cash), so equity value = EV + $4.4B net cash. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.