EVRG
EVRG
Strong Buy 2026-05-06
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$81.61
Base IV
$87.95
Bear IV
$84.77
Bull IV
$98.12
Entry Zone: 82-82 · Sell Above: 98
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Evergy Inc. (EVRG) • May 6, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.20% • Current Price: $81.61
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Evergy, Inc. (EVRG) is a regulated utility holding company serving approximately 1.6 million electric customers in Kansas and Missouri. The company operates a vertically integrated utility with generation, transmission, and distribution assets. EVRG has transitioned from a two-state structure to a single operating utility, streamlining regulatory oversight and capital allocation.
The company is executing a $21.6B capital plan through 2030 focused on grid modernization, renewable integration, and data center capacity expansion. Load growth is expected at 6% CAGR driven by new customer agreements with major data center developments in the service territory.
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Maturity/Stability: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+63.9% (2016→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 142.5M | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 142.6M | +0.1% | — | — |
| 2018 | 214.1M | +50.1% | — | — |
| 2019 | 239.9M | +12.1% | — | — |
| 2020 | 227.5M | -5.2% | — | — |
| 2021 | 229.6M | +0.9% | — | — |
| 2022 | 230.3M | +0.3% | — | — |
| 2023 | 230.5M | +0.1% | — | — |
| 2024 | 230.6M | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2025 | 233.6M | +1.3% | — | — |
EVRG maintains a pure dividend return policy with no share repurchases. Total shareholder return is achieved through dividend growth (22 consecutive years) and reinvestment at regulated ROE. Share count has remained flat to slightly increasing due to new share issuances for capital projects.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$85
🔴 Bear
$88
📊 Base
$98
🚀 Bull
$81.61
Current Price
$87
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 7.20% | $85 | ▲3.9% |
| 📊 Base | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 7.20% | $88 | ▲7.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 7.20% | $98 | ▲20.2% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.919 | $2.723 | $2.72 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.065 | $2.667 | $5.39 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.218 | $2.612 | $8.00 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.379 | $2.559 | $10.56 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.548 | $2.506 | $13.07 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.690 | $2.431 | $15.50 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.838 | $2.359 | $17.86 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.991 | $2.288 | $20.15 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.151 | $2.220 | $22.37 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.317 | $2.154 | $24.52 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$120.75 | PV(TV)=$60.25 (71% of IV) | $84.77 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $24.52 + PV(TV) $60.25 | $84.77 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $120.75. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $60.25). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($24.52) + PV of terminal value ($60.25) = $84.77 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.4% | Stage 2: 4.5% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.930 | $2.733 | $2.73 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.088 | $2.687 | $5.42 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.255 | $2.642 | $8.06 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.431 | $2.598 | $10.66 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.616 | $2.554 | $13.22 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.779 | $2.490 | $15.71 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.949 | $2.427 | $18.13 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.127 | $2.366 | $20.50 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.312 | $2.307 | $22.81 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.506 | $2.248 | $25.05 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$126.06 | PV(TV)=$62.90 (72% of IV) | $87.95 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $25.05 + PV(TV) $62.90 | $87.95 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $126.06. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $62.90). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($25.05) + PV of terminal value ($62.90) = $87.95 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.8%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.947 | $2.749 | $2.75 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.124 | $2.718 | $5.47 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.311 | $2.688 | $8.15 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.510 | $2.658 | $10.81 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.720 | $2.628 | $13.44 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.906 | $2.574 | $16.01 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $4.102 | $2.521 | $18.54 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.307 | $2.469 | $21.00 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.522 | $2.419 | $23.42 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.748 | $2.369 | $25.79 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$144.96 | PV(TV)=$72.33 (74% of IV) | $98.12 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $25.79 + PV(TV) $72.33 | $98.12 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $144.96. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $72.33). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($25.79) + PV of terminal value ($72.33) = $98.12 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $102 | $114 | $131 | $155 | $193 |
| 5.7% | $90 | $98 | $110 | $126 | $149 |
| 6.2% | $80 | $86 | $95 | $106 | $121 |
| 6.7% | $72 | $77 | $83 | $91 | $102 |
| 7.2% | $65 | $69 | $74 | $80 | $88 |
| 7.7% | $60 | $63 | $67 | $71 | $77 |
| 8.2% | $55 | $58 | $61 | $64 | $69 |
| 8.7% | $51 | $53 | $56 | $59 | $62 |
| 9.2% | $47 | $49 | $51 | $54 | $57 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
💡 Investment Thesis
- Regulated asset base strength: 8.5% expected rate base growth through 2029 with robust tariff protection and return on equity decisions aligned with capital deployment.
- Data center tailwinds: EVRG is a primary power supplier for the Kansas City data center corridor, with long-term service agreements providing stable demand visibility.
- Dividend growth durability: 22 consecutive years of dividend increases with a 74% payout ratio leaving room for growth while maintaining investment-grade balance sheet.
- Carbon-free transition: 2040 carbon-free goal with nuclear partnerships (TerraPower) positioning EVRG for long-term compliance and premium rate base treatment.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: David Campbell · Tenure: Since 2021 (~5 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+120,137 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Board of Directors | Evergy, Inc.
Previously, she was the Chief Financial Officer of Midwest Research Institute and also served as Director of its Center for Regional Development. Prior to that Ms. Lawrence spent twenty-six years in professional or manageme
Previously, she was the Chief Financial Officer of Midwest Research Institute and also served as Director of its Center for Regional Development. Prior to that Ms. Lawrence spent twenty-six years in professional or manageme
Leadership Team | Evergy, Inc.
David Campbell joined Evergy in January 2021 as President and CEO and was appointed Chairman in May 2024. Under Campbell’s leadership, Evergy focuses on providing safe, affordable, and reliable electric service to its 1.7 m
David Campbell joined Evergy in January 2021 as President and CEO and was appointed Chairman in May 2024. Under Campbell’s leadership, Evergy focuses on providing safe, affordable, and reliable electric service to its 1.7 m
Evergy Appoints David A. Campbell as President, Chief Execut
David Campbell is an experienced energy industry executive with more than twenty-five years of experience, including fifteen years of senior leadership roles in the electric power and utility sector. He has a proven track r
David Campbell is an experienced energy industry executive with more than twenty-five years of experience, including fifteen years of senior leadership roles in the electric power and utility sector. He has a proven track r
Capital Allocation & Strategy
May 8, 2025 First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call
differing views on environmental, social and governance concerns; the possibility that strategic initiatives, including mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, and long-term financial plans, may not create the value that they are expected t
differing views on environmental, social and governance concerns; the possibility that strategic initiatives, including mergers, acquisitions and divestitures, and long-term financial plans, may not create the value that they are expected t
Evergy Releases 2025 Results, Announces New Large Customers,
Evergy's strategic plan, financial results or operations; the impact of changing expectations and demands of the Evergy Companies' customers, regulators, investors and stakeholders, including differing views on environmental, soci
Evergy's strategic plan, financial results or operations; the impact of changing expectations and demands of the Evergy Companies' customers, regulators, investors and stakeholders, including differing views on environmental, soci
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
183
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Evergy Reviews (183): Pros & Cons of Working At Evergy | Gla
Oct 14, 2025 · Oracle database administrator · Former employee, more than 5 years · Topeka, KS · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Good place to work in the mid west · Cons · Culture started to shift once KCPL and Westar
Oct 14, 2025 · Oracle database administrator · Former employee, more than 5 years · Topeka, KS · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Good place to work in the mid west · Cons · Culture started to shift once KCPL and Westar
Working at Evergy: Employee Reviews | Indeed.com
Terrible culture. They lie to employees and the general public. They lie about their profits and losses due to terrible management. When you say anything you are a target and will pay the price. If you leave your...Show mor
Terrible culture. They lie to employees and the general public. They lie about their profits and losses due to terrible management. When you say anything you are a target and will pay the price. If you leave your...Show mor
Evergy Reviews in Kansas City, MO | Glassdoor
Employees in Kansas City have rated Evergy with 3.7 out of 5 for work-life-balance (8.5% higher than company-wide rating), 3.7 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (2.7% higher than company-wide rating), 3.5 out of 5 for cu
Employees in Kansas City have rated Evergy with 3.7 out of 5 for work-life-balance (8.5% higher than company-wide rating), 3.7 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (2.7% higher than company-wide rating), 3.5 out of 5 for cu
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Strong Buy — Evergy Inc. (EVRG)
Current price: $81.61 | Analyst Avg PT: $87.38
$85
🔴 Bear
$88
📊 Base
$98
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$82 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$82 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$82 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$98 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Strong Buy. The current price of $81.61 sits at or below the bear-case value of $85, implying an unusually favorable downside/upside setup. Tier 1 begins at or below $82, with full allocation reserved for $82 or better.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.