Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Evergy Inc. (EVRG) • March 9, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.30% • Current Price: $83.36
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Evergy, Inc. is a regulated electric utility formed in 2018 through the merger of Westar Energy and Kansas City Power & Light (KCPL). Headquartered in Kansas City, MO, Evergy serves approximately 1.7 million customers across Kansas and Missouri. The company operates primarily as a vertically integrated electric utility, owning generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. Evergy's service territory is predominantly agricultural and industrial, providing stable, predictable demand.
The company is in the midst of a multi-year capital investment program focused on renewable energy transition, grid modernization, and reliability improvements. Total projected CapEx of $12-14B over 2024-2028 is expected to drive rate base growth of 6-7%/yr, underpinning the ~4-6% EPS/DPS growth target.
| Segment | Description | % Revenue | Revenue (FY25) | YoY Growth | Margin Profile |
|---|
| Evergy Kansas Central | Former Westar — central/western Kansas | ~40% | ~$2.4B | +2% | Regulated |
| Evergy Metro (KCPL) | Kansas City area — Kansas side | ~25% | ~$1.5B | +2% | Regulated |
| Evergy Missouri West | Western Missouri service territory | ~20% | ~$1.2B | +2% | Regulated |
| Evergy Missouri Metro | Kansas City area — Missouri side | ~15% | ~$0.9B | +2% | Regulated |
All segments operate under regulatory frameworks with allowed ROE of ~9.5-10.5%. Evergy is investing heavily in wind and solar generation (Kansas is among top 5 wind states). The company also benefits from growing data center demand in its service territory. Key regulatory milestone: Kansas/Missouri rate case outcomes in 2025-2026 will determine allowed returns and pace of rate base recovery.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $5,587,000 | $5,859,000 | $5,508,000 | $5,847,000 | $5,962,000 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $2,352,000 | $2,299,000 | $2,465,000 | $2,680,000 | $2,789,000 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,355,000 | $1,267,000 | $1,282,000 | $1,468,000 | $1,533,000 |
| Net Income ($M) | $879,700 | $752,700 | $731,300 | $873,500 | $855,600 |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.83 | $3.27 | $3.17 | $3.79 | $3.66 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $-620,800 | $-364,600 | $-353,800 | $-352,900 | $-751,700 |
| Annual DPS | $2.178 | $2.330 | $2.480 | $2.595 | $2.697 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $11,166,000 | $12,036,000 | $13,147,000 | $14,070,000 | $15,202,000 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +4.9% | -6.0% | +6.2% | +2.0% |
⚙️ Ke (DDM)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.550 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 7.33% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
📈 DDM Scenarios
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.863 | $2.669 | $2.67 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.949 | $2.562 | $5.23 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.038 | $2.459 | $7.69 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.129 | $2.360 | $10.05 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.223 | $2.266 | $12.32 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.287 | $2.154 | $14.47 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.353 | $2.048 | $16.52 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.420 | $1.946 | $18.46 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.488 | $1.850 | $20.31 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.558 | $1.759 | $22.07 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$68.48 | PV(TV)=$33.85 (61% of IV) | |
Base Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.919 | $2.720 | $2.72 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.065 | $2.662 | $5.38 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.218 | $2.605 | $7.99 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.379 | $2.549 | $10.54 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.548 | $2.495 | $13.03 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.672 | $2.406 | $15.44 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.801 | $2.321 | $17.76 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.934 | $2.239 | $20.00 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.071 | $2.160 | $22.16 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.214 | $2.083 | $24.24 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$89.99 | PV(TV)=$44.48 (65% of IV) | |
Bull Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.975 | $2.772 | $2.77 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.183 | $2.764 | $5.54 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.406 | $2.757 | $8.29 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.644 | $2.749 | $11.04 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.899 | $2.741 | $13.78 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.094 | $2.683 | $16.47 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $4.299 | $2.625 | $19.09 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.514 | $2.569 | $21.66 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.739 | $2.514 | $24.17 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.976 | $2.460 | $26.63 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$119.20 | PV(TV)=$58.92 (69% of IV) | |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 5.3% | $94 | $105 | $119 | $139 | $171 |
| 5.8% | $83 | $90 | $101 | $114 | $134 |
| 6.3% | $74 | $80 | $87 | $97 | $110 |
| 6.8% | $67 | $71 | $77 | $84 | $93 |
| 7.3% | $61 | $64 | $69 | $74 | $81 |
| 7.8% | $56 | $59 | $62 | $66 | $72 |
| 8.3% | $51 | $54 | $57 | $60 | $64 |
| 8.8% | $48 | $50 | $52 | $55 | $58 |
| 9.3% | $45 | $46 | $48 | $50 | $53 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | P/E (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA | Yield | DPS CAGR 5yr | Notes |
|---|
| EVRG | 19.2x | 12.5x | 3.3% | +5.0% | Self |
| ED (ConEd) | 17.5x | 11.2x | 3.8% | +3.5% | NY regulated utility |
| WEC Energy | 19.8x | 13.5x | 3.6% | +6.5% | Midwest gas+electric |
| CMS Energy | 18.2x | 11.8x | 3.7% | +6.0% | Michigan utility |
| EVRG 5yr avg | 17.0x | 11.5x | 3.8% | — | Own history |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.780 |
| Current Yield | 3.33% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 22 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +4.0% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 74.5% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Payout ratio 74.5% (EPS basis) — approaching the 75% Watch threshold but still covered. Negative FCF is normal for regulated utilities investing in CapEx; the dividend is funded by regulated earnings (not FCF). 22 consecutive years of growth demonstrate management commitment. Rate base expansion at 6-7%/yr supports continued 4-5%/yr DPS growth without straining the payout ratio.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $3.83 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $3.27 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.17 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.79 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.66 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.11 | $4.35 | $4.53 | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $4.43 | $4.65 | $4.87 | 15 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $5587.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $5859.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $5508.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $5847.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $5962.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $5500.0B | $6370.0B | $7000.0B | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $5700.0B | $6720.0B | $7500.0B | 15 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $84.33 | Range $68–$95
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| Ryan Levine | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $95 | +14.0% |
| William Appicelli | UBS | Hold | $88 | +5.6% |
| Edward DeArias | BMO Capital | Buy | $87 | +4.4% |
| Shahriar Pourreza | Wells Fargo | Hold | $83 | -0.4% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.33 vs $0.30 | +$0.03 ✅ | $1438.0B vs $1420.0B | +$18.0B ✅ | Reaffirmed |
| Q3 2025 | $1.40 vs $1.35 | +$0.05 ✅ | $1848.0B vs $1820.0B | +$28.0B ✅ | Reaffirmed |
| Q2 2025 | $0.91 vs $0.87 | +$0.04 ✅ | $1394.0B vs $1380.0B | +$14.0B ✅ | Reaffirmed |
| Q1 2025 | $1.01 vs $0.97 | +$0.04 ✅ | $1282.0B vs $1265.0B | +$17.0B ✅ | Reaffirmed |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
EVRG is a consistent 3-5% EPS beater typical of regulated utilities. Analyst range is relatively tight ($68-$95) — wide spread on the low end reflects rate case risk. Strong Buy from Citi ($95) and Buy from BMO ($87) suggest the stock has upside. Wells Fargo Hold ($83) reflects near-term rate case uncertainty. Stock at $83.36 is essentially at the consensus PT ($84.33) — fairly valued by the street.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case — Rate Base Growth + Data Center Demand: EVRG's rate base is growing 6-7%/yr driven by renewable buildout, grid hardening, and transmission investment. Kansas and Missouri are approving EVRG's capital programs in recent regulatory filings. Growing data center demand in the Kansas City metro (a cheaper alternative to coastal markets) provides incremental load growth above historical trends. If EPS reaches $4.65+ by 2027 and payout ratio holds at 65-70%, DPS could rise to $3.00-$3.20 by 2028, supporting $95+ stock.
Bear Case — Rate Case Risk + Rising Rates: Utility valuations are highly rate-sensitive. If 10-yr Treasury rises to 5%+, EVRG's 3.3% yield becomes less attractive vs risk-free alternatives. Regulatory risk: if Kansas or Missouri rate cases come in below the ~9.5% ROE threshold, EPS growth slows. High leverage ($15.2B debt on $33.9B assets) means rising borrowing costs compress returns. The $68 bear PT implies ~19% downside.
Base Assumptions: Regulatory environment remains supportive (track record of constructive outcomes). Rate base grows 6%/yr. DPS grows at 5%/yr through 2030. EVRG is a core income holding — 22 years of consecutive DPS growth, 3.33% yield. At $83.36, stock trades roughly at fair value per base DDM ($84.26). Accumulate on dips below $80 for income portfolio. Hold current position.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Accumulate — Evergy Inc. (EVRG)
Current price: $83.36 | Analyst Avg PT: $84.33
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$80 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$75 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$70 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$100 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 2,006 |
| Average Cost Basis | $53.70 |
| Current Market Value | $167,220 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+59,498 (+55.2%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.780/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $5,577/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 3.33% |
| Yield on Cost | 5.18% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $167,220 / $200,000 (84%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
