GM
GM
Accumulate 2026-05-07
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$78.70
Base IV
$82.87
Bear IV
$52.17
Bull IV
$90.15
Entry Zone: 53-88 · Sell Above: 106
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — General Motors Company (GM) • May 7, 2026
DCF w/ Exit Multiple (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.00% • Current Price: $78.70
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
General Motors is one of the world's largest automakers, producing Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac, and Buick vehicles across North America and international markets. The company is undergoing a major transition to electric vehicles with its Ultium platform, while simultaneously scaling its Cruise autonomous vehicle subsidiary and GM Financial lending arm. GM generated $185B in revenue in FY2025 and has aggressively retired shares, reducing the count from 1.45B (2021) to ~904M today — a 38% reduction in four years.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM North America | $130,000M | 70% | +2.0% | — | Full-size trucks & SUVs drive profitability; 10.1% EBIT adj margin in Q1 2026 |
| GM International | $27,000M | 15% | +3.0% | — | China JV equity income declining; focused on South America and Middle East |
| Cruise / Autonomous | $500M | 0% | -15.0% | — | Restructured; pivoting from robotaxi to personal AV; losses narrowing |
| GM Financial | $27,500M | 15% | +5.0% | — | Auto lending arm; $514M Q1 2026 net income; stable credit quality |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +2.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $122,485 | $127,004 | $156,735 | $171,842 | $187,442 | $185,019 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +3.7% | +23.4% | +9.6% | +9.1% | -1.3% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | $25,173 | $17,497 |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | 13.4% | 9.5% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $6,634 | $9,324 | $10,315 | $9,298 | $12,784 | $2,909 |
| Operating Margin | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 1.6% |
| Net Income ($M) | $6,427 | $10,019 | $9,934 | $10,127 | $6,008 | $3,180 |
| Net Margin | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.33 | $6.70 | $6.13 | $7.32 | $6.37 | $3.27 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $11,370 | $7,679 | $6,805 | $9,960 | $9,299 | $17,564 |
| Annual DPS | $0.380 | $0.000 | $0.180 | $0.360 | $0.480 | $0.570 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $114,699 | $109,379 | $114,699 | $121,741 | $129,732 | $130,277 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-38.0% (2016→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 1570.0M | — | $2,500 | 2.0% |
| 2017 | 1492.0M | -5.0% | $4,492 | 3.8% |
| 2018 | 1431.0M | -4.1% | $190 | 0.2% |
| 2019 | 1439.0M | +0.6% | — | — |
| 2020 | 1442.0M | +0.2% | $90 | 0.1% |
| 2021 | 1468.0M | +1.8% | — | — |
| 2022 | 1454.0M | -1.0% | $2,500 | 2.2% |
| 2023 | 1369.0M | -5.8% | $11,115 | 10.3% |
| 2024 | 1129.0M | -17.5% | $7,064 | 8.0% |
| 2025 | 973.0M | -13.8% | $6,012 | 7.9% |
GM has returned $34.2B via buybacks since 2016, with a dramatic acceleration in 2023-2025 ($24.2B in three years). Shares outstanding fell from 1,454M to ~904M — a 38% reduction. Current pace: ~$6B/year. Dividend: $0.72/share annually (0.91% yield), growing ~10-19% per year since reinstatement.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.35% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.300 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 4.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.20% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 6.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 4.74% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 56.9% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 43.1% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 8.00% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$52
🔴 Bear
$83
📊 Base
$90
🚀 Bull
$78.70
Current Price
$94
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Exit Mult (EV/EBITDA) | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 5.5× | 8.00% | $52 | ▼33.7% |
| 📊 Base | 3.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 6.0× | 8.00% | $83 | ▲5.3% |
| 🚀 Bull | 4.0% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 6.0× | 8.00% | $90 | ▲14.6% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 1.0% | Stage 2: 0.5% | Terminal: 1.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.00B | $7.41B | $7.41B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.00B | $6.86B | $14.27B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $8.08B | $6.41B | $20.68B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $8.16B | $6.00B | $26.68B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $8.24B | $5.61B | $32.29B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.28B | $5.22B | $37.51B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.33B | $4.86B | $42.37B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.37B | $4.52B | $46.89B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $8.41B | $4.21B | $51.09B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $8.45B | $3.91B | $55.01B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$99.0B | PV(TV)=$45.9B (45% of EV) | EV=$100.9B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $100.9B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $52 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, an exit multiple approach values the company at 5.5× EV/EBITDA (Year 10 EBITDA = $18.0B), giving a terminal value of $99.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $45.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($55.0B) + PV of TV ($45.9B) = $100.9B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $47.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $52 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 1.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.00B | $7.41B | $7.41B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.00B | $7.72B | $15.12B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $9.31B | $7.39B | $22.52B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $9.64B | $7.09B | $29.60B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $9.98B | $6.79B | $36.40B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $10.13B | $6.38B | $42.78B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $10.28B | $6.00B | $48.78B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.43B | $5.64B | $54.41B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $10.59B | $5.30B | $59.71B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.75B | $4.98B | $64.69B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$138.0B | PV(TV)=$63.9B (50% of EV) | EV=$128.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $128.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $83 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, an exit multiple approach values the company at 6.0× EV/EBITDA (Year 10 EBITDA = $23.0B), giving a terminal value of $138.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $63.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($64.7B) + PV of TV ($63.9B) = $128.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $74.9B, divided by shares outstanding = $83 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.00B | $7.41B | $7.41B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.00B | $7.72B | $15.12B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $9.36B | $7.43B | $22.55B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $9.73B | $7.16B | $29.71B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $10.12B | $6.89B | $36.60B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $10.33B | $6.51B | $43.11B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $10.53B | $6.15B | $49.25B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.74B | $5.80B | $55.06B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $10.96B | $5.48B | $60.54B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $11.18B | $5.18B | $65.72B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$150.0B | PV(TV)=$69.5B (51% of EV) | EV=$135.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $135.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $90 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, an exit multiple approach values the company at 6.0× EV/EBITDA (Year 10 EBITDA = $25.0B), giving a terminal value of $150.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $69.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($65.7B) + PV of TV ($69.5B) = $135.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $81.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $90 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $200 | $222 | $250 | $288 | $341 |
| 6.5% | $174 | $191 | $212 | $239 | $276 |
| 7.0% | $152 | $166 | $182 | $202 | $228 |
| 7.5% | $135 | $145 | $158 | $174 | $193 |
| 8.0% | $120 | $128 | $138 | $151 | $166 |
| 8.5% | $107 | $114 | $122 | $132 | $144 |
| 9.0% | $95 | $101 | $108 | $116 | $126 |
| 9.5% | $86 | $91 | $96 | $103 | $110 |
| 10.0% | $77 | $81 | $86 | $91 | $98 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis
Elliott Wave structure analysis based on 500 days of price history. Current position and wave progress help evaluate entry timing.
| Structure | Type | Span | Waves | Score | Rules |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impulse 1 (partial) | Impulse | $39.26 → $78.93 | 1→2→3→4→5 | 11.5 | R1:100 R2:100 R3:100 |
Current position: In Impulse 1, Wave 5 ~25% complete, target ~$98.05
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $4.33 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2021 | $6.70 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $6.13 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $7.32 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $6.37 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.27 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $10.98 | $13.20 | $14.54 | — | Estimate |
| 2027 | $10.73 | $14.56 | $16.68 | — | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $122.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2021 | $127.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $156.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $171.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $187.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $185.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $178.3B | $192.1B | $201.5B | — | Estimate |
| 2027 | $182.8B | $198.8B | $215.1B | — | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Itay Michaeli | TD Cowen | Strong Buy | $126 | +60.1% |
| George Galliers | Evercore ISI | Buy | $100 | +27.1% |
| Vijay Rakesh | Mizuho | Buy | $100 | +27.1% |
| Tom Narayan | RBC Capital | Buy | $95 | +20.7% |
| Dan Ives | Wedbush | Buy | $95 | +20.7% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Aggressive capital return: GM has retired 38% of shares since 2021 and continues $6B+/year in buybacks, creating significant per-share value accretion even with flat enterprise-level earnings.
- Margin inflection potential: Q1 2026 EBIT adjusted margin of 10.1% demonstrates GM can approach double-digit margins — well above historical 5-7% range — driven by pricing power in trucks/SUVs and digital services scaling.
- EV transition risk/reward: The Ultium ramp is costly but positions GM as a legacy automaker leader in EVs. Regulatory credits and lower warranty costs could provide upside if execution improves.
- Tariff/refund tailwind: The Supreme Court tariff refund (~$500M in Q1) and raised FY2026 EBIT guidance ($13.5-15.5B) provide near-term earnings support, though tariff policy remains fluid.
- Cyclical risk: Auto earnings are inherently cyclical. A recession could compress margins 50%+ from peak, and the current cycle is mature. This is the key bear case.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Mary Barra · Tenure: Since 2014 (~12 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-1,681,764 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Comp reference: $40M
CEO Background & Track Record
General Motors (GM) CEO History: From Sloan to Barra
Concise history of General Motors' CEO leadership from iconic Alfred Sloan to current trailblazer Mary Barra guiding the company's evolution.
Concise history of General Motors' CEO leadership from iconic Alfred Sloan to current trailblazer Mary Barra guiding the company's evolution.
Mary Barra | Life, Career, & Leadership | Britannica Money
Mary Barra, née Mary Teresa Makela (born December 24, 1961, Waterford, Michigan), is chief executive officer and chair of the board of General Motors Company (GM). When she was appointed CEO in 2014, Barra became the first
Mary Barra, née Mary Teresa Makela (born December 24, 1961, Waterford, Michigan), is chief executive officer and chair of the board of General Motors Company (GM). When she was appointed CEO in 2014, Barra became the first
» Mary Barra | Automotive Hall of Fame
Mary Barra made history in 2014 when she became the first female CEO of General Motors (GM), one of the biggest automakers in the world, and the first woman to hold this title in the historically male-dominated auto industr
Mary Barra made history in 2014 when she became the first female CEO of General Motors (GM), one of the biggest automakers in the world, and the first woman to hold this title in the historically male-dominated auto industr
Capital Allocation & Strategy
What is Growth Strategy and Future Prospects of General Moto
Capital allocation prioritizes growth capex for electrification and software while preserving investment‑grade metrics under a balanced capital framework. Shareholder returns remain elevated after a $10 billion ASR announce
Capital allocation prioritizes growth capex for electrification and software while preserving investment‑grade metrics under a balanced capital framework. Shareholder returns remain elevated after a $10 billion ASR announce
Who Owns General Motors Company? – PortersFiveForce.com
Market cap mid‑2025: roughly $50–70 billion, driven by ICE profits, EV launches, Cruise writedowns, and buybacks · For related analysis of business lines and capital allocation that influence ownership returns see Revenue Streams & Busi
Market cap mid‑2025: roughly $50–70 billion, driven by ICE profits, EV launches, Cruise writedowns, and buybacks · For related analysis of business lines and capital allocation that influence ownership returns see Revenue Streams & Busi
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- recommend
⚠️ Concerns
- toxic
- micromanag
Employee Review Excerpts
r/GeneralMotors on Reddit: GM Glassdoor ratings
I have a lot of respect for her since she's not a nepotism pick. She's worked her way up. It is exceedingly rare these days a CEO is remotly in touch with working class, let alone unheard of that they may hail fro
I have a lot of respect for her since she's not a nepotism pick. She's worked her way up. It is exceedingly rare these days a CEO is remotly in touch with working class, let alone unheard of that they may hail fro
General Motors (GM) Manager Reviews | Glassdoor
Nov 28, 2025 · Manager · Former employee · Warren, MI · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · No Pros. Engineering org is demoralized. Hard core employee ranking is driving firings and quiet termination. Cons · Since past 3 y
Nov 28, 2025 · Manager · Former employee · Warren, MI · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · No Pros. Engineering org is demoralized. Hard core employee ranking is driving firings and quiet termination. Cons · Since past 3 y
General Motors (GM) Reviews (11,568): Pros & Cons of Working
How satisfied are employees working at General Motors (GM)?59% of General Motors (GM) employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated General Motors (GM) 3.5 out of 5 for work life balanc
How satisfied are employees working at General Motors (GM)?59% of General Motors (GM) employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated General Motors (GM) 3.5 out of 5 for work life balanc
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — General Motors Company (GM)
Current price: $78.70 | Analyst Avg PT: $94.10
$52
🔴 Bear
$83
📊 Base
$90
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$88 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$73 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$53 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$106 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Accumulate. At $78.70, the shares trade meaningfully below the base-case value of $83, implying roughly 5% upside to fair value. Starter zone is $88 or below, with more aggressive adds on deeper weakness.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 1,183.26 |
| Average Cost Basis | $43.33 |
| Current Market Value | $93,123 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+41,852 (+81.6%) |
| Annual DPS | $0.720/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $852/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 0.91% |
| Yield on Cost | 1.66% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $93,123 / $200,000 (47%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.