INTC
INTC
Avoid 2026-04-23
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$66.78
Base IV
$35.90
Bear IV
$11.04
Bull IV
$72.00
Entry Zone: 30-40 · Sell Above: 70
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Intel Corporation (INTC) • April 23, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 9.92% • Current Price: $66.78
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Intel Corporation is the world's largest semiconductor manufacturer by revenue historically, though its position has eroded significantly since 2021. Founded in 1968 by Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, Intel pioneered the x86 architecture that powers the vast majority of PCs and servers globally. The company operates two primary segments: Intel Products (Client Computing Group and Data Center & AI), which generated $49.1B in FY2025 revenue, and Intel Foundry, the contract manufacturing arm that lost $10.3B on $17.8B in revenue as it builds out leading-edge 18A process technology. Under new CEO Lip-Bu Tan (appointed 2026), Intel is executing a high-stakes transformation from a vertically integrated chipmaker into a "foundry-first" platform — simultaneously competing with TSMC and Samsung for external customers while trying to regain process leadership. Revenue has fallen 33% from its 2021 peak of $79B to $52.9B in FY2025, and the dividend has been suspended as cash is redirected toward the foundry buildout.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | $32,228M | 61% | -3.0% | — | PC processors; 28.9% op margin; still largest segment |
| Data Center & AI (DCAI) | $16,919M | 32% | +5.0% | — | Server/AI chips; 20.2% op margin; recovering |
| Intel Foundry | $17,826M | 34% | +3.0% | — | Contract mfg; -57.9% op margin; massive investment phase |
| All Other (incl. Mobileye) | $3,563M | 7% | -1.0% | — | Mobileye + other; Altera deconsolidated Q3 2025 |
| Intersegment Eliminations | $-17,683M | — | — | — | Eliminates Foundry ↔ Products intercompany sales |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +0.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Transitional — Foundry Transformation: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | -0.2% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | -9.4% | <5% weak |
| Debt / EBITDA | 4.9x | >4x elevated |
| Revenue Trend | Declining 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $79,024 | $63,054 | $54,228 | $53,101 | $52,853 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | -20.2% | -14.0% | -2.1% | -0.5% |
| Gross Margin | 55.4% | 42.6% | 40.0% | 32.7% | 34.8% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $31,248 | $15,369 | $9,695 | $-299 | $9,492 |
| EBITDA Margin | 39.5% | 24.4% | 17.9% | -0.6% | 18.0% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $19,456 | $2,334 | $93 | $-11,678 | $-2,214 |
| Operating Margin | 24.6% | 3.7% | 0.2% | -22.0% | -4.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $19,868 | $8,014 | $1,689 | $-18,756 | $-267 |
| Net Margin | 25.1% | 12.7% | 3.1% | -35.3% | -0.5% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.86 | $1.94 | $0.40 | $-4.38 | $-0.06 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $9,127 | $-9,411 | $-14,279 | $-15,656 | $-4,949 |
| Annual DPS | $1.390 | $1.460 | $0.740 | $0.380 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $38,101 | $42,051 | $49,266 | $50,011 | $46,585 |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.33% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.300 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.0% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.83% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.50% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.56% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 87.5% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 12.5% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 9.92% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$11
🔴 Bear
$36
📊 Base
$72
🚀 Bull
$66.78
Current Price
$50
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 11.42% | $11 | ▼83.5% |
| 📊 Base | 12.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 9.92% | $36 | ▼46.2% |
| 🚀 Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 8.92% | $72 | ▲7.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.00B | $3.59B | $3.59B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.80B | $3.87B | $7.46B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.50B | $3.98B | $11.43B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.00B | $3.89B | $15.33B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.50B | $3.79B | $19.11B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.70B | $3.50B | $22.61B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.90B | $3.23B | $25.85B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $7.10B | $2.99B | $28.84B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.32B | $2.76B | $31.60B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.54B | $2.56B | $34.16B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$81.6B | PV(TV)=$27.7B (45% of EV) | EV=$61.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $61.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $11 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (11.42%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $81.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $27.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($34.2B) + PV of TV ($27.7B) = $61.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $52.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $11 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 12.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.00B | $7.28B | $7.28B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.50B | $7.86B | $15.14B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.00B | $8.28B | $23.42B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.50B | $8.56B | $31.99B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.00B | $8.72B | $40.71B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $14.84B | $8.41B | $49.12B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $15.73B | $8.11B | $57.24B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $16.67B | $7.82B | $65.06B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $17.67B | $7.55B | $72.61B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $18.74B | $7.28B | $79.88B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$258.8B | PV(TV)=$100.5B (56% of EV) | EV=$180.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $180.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $36 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.92%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $258.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $100.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($79.9B) + PV of TV ($100.5B) = $180.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $171.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $36 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 18.0% | Stage 2: 8.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.00B | $9.18B | $9.18B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.00B | $10.12B | $19.30B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $15.00B | $11.61B | $30.90B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.00B | $12.79B | $43.69B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $21.00B | $13.70B | $57.39B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $22.68B | $13.58B | $70.98B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $24.49B | $13.47B | $84.44B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $26.45B | $13.35B | $97.80B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $28.57B | $13.24B | $111.04B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $30.86B | $13.13B | $124.17B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$536.9B | PV(TV)=$228.4B (65% of EV) | EV=$352.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $352.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $72 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.92%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $536.9B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $228.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($124.2B) + PV of TV ($228.4B) = $352.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $343.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $72 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $46 | $49 | $52 | $56 | $61 |
| 8.4% | $43 | $45 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
| 8.9% | $39 | $41 | $43 | $46 | $48 |
| 9.4% | $36 | $38 | $40 | $42 | $44 |
| 9.9% | $34 | $35 | $37 | $38 | $40 |
| 10.4% | $32 | $33 | $34 | $35 | $37 |
| 10.9% | $30 | $31 | $32 | $33 | $34 |
| 11.4% | $28 | $29 | $30 | $31 | $32 |
| 11.9% | $26 | $27 | $28 | $29 | $29 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Micro Devices | AMD | 81.0x | 71.0x | 52.1x | — | High-growth GPU/CPU competitor |
| NVIDIA | NVDA | 37.7x | 32.5x | 46.9x | — | AI/data center leader; dominant GPU |
| QUALCOMM | QCOM | 32.0x | 13.5x | 13.8x | 2.75% | Mobile SoC; steady dividend payer |
| Texas Instruments | TXN | 31.5x | 20.6x | 60.6x | 2.40% | Analog/嵌入式; Dividend King |
| Broadcom | AVGO | 74.0x | 63.7x | 63.6x | — | Diversified semiconductor + software |
| Intel (current) | INTC | N/M | 15.2x | N/M | Suspended | Negative EPS; negative FCF; turnaround |
| Intel (5yr avg) | INTC | ~25x | ~15x | ~30x | ~2.5% | Historical averages; peak was $79B rev |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $0.000 |
| Current Yield | 0.00% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 0 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +-100.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +-39.7% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +-14.8% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 0.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Suspended |
DIVIDEND SUSPENDED — Intel eliminated its dividend in 2025 to fund foundry capex. No dividend is expected until FCF turns sustainably positive, likely not before 2028. This is a total return story, not an income story.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $4.86 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.94 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.40 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-4.38 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $-0.06 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.27 | $0.51 | $1.05 | 47 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.49 | $1.03 | $2.10 | 45 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $79.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $63.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $54.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $53.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $52.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $50.3B | $55.3B | $63.6B | 47 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $54.0B | $59.5B | $74.3B | 45 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Lee | HSBC | Strong Buy | $95 | +42.3% |
| Cody Acree | Benchmark | Strong Buy | $76 | +13.8% |
| Felix Pan | KGI Securities | Hold | $71 | +6.3% |
| John Vinh | KeyBanc | Buy | $70 | +4.8% |
| Ruben Roy | Stifel | Hold | $65 | -2.7% |
| Christopher Rolland | Susquehanna | Hold | $65 | -2.7% |
| Stacy Rasgon | Bernstein | Hold | $60 | -10.2% |
| C.J. Muse | Cantor Fitzgerald | Hold | $60 | -10.2% |
| Aaron Rakers | Wells Fargo | Hold | $55 | -17.6% |
| Timothy Arcuri | UBS | Hold | $52 | -22.1% |
| Suji Desilva | Roth Capital | Hold | $50 | -25.1% |
| Atif Malik | Citigroup | Hold | $48 | -28.1% |
| Srini Pajjuri | RBC Capital | Hold | $48 | -28.1% |
| Gil Luria | DA Davidson | Hold | $45 | -32.6% |
| Joseph Moore | Morgan Stanley | Hold | $41 | -38.6% |
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case: The Foundry Option Is Worth Something. Intel's $66 stock price implies the market is pricing a partial recovery — but not the full foundry upside. If Lip-Bu Tan executes on 18A and secures external customers (beyond Intel's own products), the foundry could be valued as a standalone entity worth $30-50B. CCG remains a cash cow at $9.3B operating income. DCAI is recovering with 20% margins. The stock at 50-60% of book value is pricing foundry failure as near-certain — any positive surprise drives re-rating.
Bear Case: This Is a Value Trap. Revenue has declined 33% in four years. The foundry lost $10.3B in FY2025 and may not break even until 2028+. Intel is burning $15-25B/year in capex on a strategy that competes with TSMC's proven scale. Meanwhile, AMD and NVDA continue to take share in data center. The $9.2B net debt understates real leverage when including $46.6B in gross debt and foundry capex commitments. Even at $66, the stock trades at ~130× forward EPS — expensive for a company with negative FCF and no dividend.
Our Position: Avoid at current levels. The after-hours surge to $75.80 on Q1 2026 results is a momentum trade, not a fundamental re-rating. Negative FCF for 4 consecutive years, suspended dividend, and an unproven foundry model make this a speculative bet, not an investment. If the foundry shows external customer traction and FCF turns positive, re-evaluate at $40-45.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Time Line · Tenure: Since 2024 (~2 yrs)
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: MODERATE
Key-person signals: visionary.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+1,159,210 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Intel Ceo History: From Moore to Lip-Bu Tan
From Gordon Moore's visionary leadership to Pat Gelsinger's ambitious comeback, explore the remarkable history of Intel's CEOs.
From Gordon Moore's visionary leadership to Pat Gelsinger's ambitious comeback, explore the remarkable history of Intel's CEOs.
Intel CEO Time Line & History | The Chip History Center
Paul is the only Intel CEO to have a non-technical background. The challenge over his tenure was in part to transform Intel from a company that sold parts out of catalogs into a marketing giant. He needed to find a new path for Intel in the
Paul is the only Intel CEO to have a non-technical background. The challenge over his tenure was in part to transform Intel from a company that sold parts out of catalogs into a marketing giant. He needed to find a new path for Intel in the
The Updated Legacy of Intel CEOs - Semiwiki
He started his career at Intel in 1979, where he spent 30 years in various roles and eventually rose to become the company’s first Chief Technology Officer (CTO). During his tenure at Intel, Gelsinger played a crucial role
He started his career at Intel in 1979, where he spent 30 years in various roles and eventually rose to become the company’s first Chief Technology Officer (CTO). During his tenure at Intel, Gelsinger played a crucial role
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Intel Updates Capital Allocation to Drive Long-Term Strategy
We are well into the ramp of 13th ... These actions include: Delivering $3 billion in cost savings in 2023, on the path to $8 billion to $10 billion in annualized savings by the end of 2025....
We are well into the ramp of 13th ... These actions include: Delivering $3 billion in cost savings in 2023, on the path to $8 billion to $10 billion in annualized savings by the end of 2025....
Actions to Accelerate our Progress - Intel Newsroom
Reducing Capital and Other Costs: ... capital efficiency and more normalized spending levels. This will reduce our 2024 capital expenditures by more than 20%, and we plan to reduce our non-variable cost of goods sold by rou
Reducing Capital and Other Costs: ... capital efficiency and more normalized spending levels. This will reduce our 2024 capital expenditures by more than 20%, and we plan to reduce our non-variable cost of goods sold by rou
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
4.3/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
228
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
- flexible
⚠️ Concerns
- layoffs
Employee Review Excerpts
Intel Corporation Reviews (31,719): Pros & Cons of Working A
"Good work culture and all good" Users say... "Company has bad management and bad Decision" "Frequent reorganizations and layoffs create instability and impact long" "If your manager is ba
"Good work culture and all good" Users say... "Company has bad management and bad Decision" "Frequent reorganizations and layoffs create instability and impact long" "If your manager is ba
Intel Corporation Reviews in US | Glassdoor
How is the work culture at Intel Corporation in US?Employees in US have rated Intel Corporation with 4 out of 5 for work-life-balance (5.1% higher than company-wide rating), 4.3 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (4.8% higher than company
How is the work culture at Intel Corporation in US?Employees in US have rated Intel Corporation with 4 out of 5 for work-life-balance (5.1% higher than company-wide rating), 4.3 out of 5 for diversity and inclusion (4.8% higher than company
Intel Corporation "culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
"Middle and upper management are in direct revolt against CEO and his plans." (in 228 reviews) ... See how the overall rating varies across different demographic groups at Intel Corporation. ... Good compensation, excellen
"Middle and upper management are in direct revolt against CEO and his plans." (in 228 reviews) ... See how the overall rating varies across different demographic groups at Intel Corporation. ... Good compensation, excellen
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Avoid — Intel Corporation (INTC)
Current price: $66.78 | Analyst Avg PT: $49.68
$11
🔴 Bear
$36
📊 Base
$72
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$40 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$35 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$30 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$70 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Avoid. Intel at $66.78 is priced for a foundry transformation that has not yet delivered. Negative FCF for 4 consecutive years, a suspended dividend, and $46.6B in gross debt make this a high-risk turnaround story, not a value investment. The after-hours pop to $75.80 only widens the gap between price and fundamentals. Base-case DCF value is $52 — the stock is trading 28% above fair value. Wait for FCF proof. If the foundry secures major external customers and FCF turns positive, reconsider at $40-45.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Normalization | Intel's FCF has been negative for 4 consecutive years: -$9.4B (2022), -$14.3B (2023), -$15.7B (2024), -$5.0B (2025). We use a normalized FCF base of $8.0B for FY2026E — reflecting: (1) OCF recovery to $11-14B range as margins improve under Lip-Bu Tan; (2) capex normalization from ~$25B peak to ~$20-21B; (3) working capital improvements. This implies ~12-15% FCF margin on consensus revenue of $55-56B. Intel's historical peak OCF was $29.5B (2021) and even in the trough year of 2025 OCF was $9.7B — so FCF is primarily a function of capex discipline going forward. |
| WACC | WACC = 12.22%. Key driver is the high beta (1.66), which reflects Intel's transformation risk and earnings volatility. Ke = 13.46% (Rf 4.33% + β 1.66 × ERP 5.5%). Kd = 3.56% (4.5% pre-tax × 0.79). Market cap weight: 87.5% equity / 12.5% debt. This WACC is intentionally conservative for a company with negative FCF and unproven strategy. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV of ~$52 is 4% above the analyst consensus PT of $49.68 — well within the ±35% threshold. However, the wide analyst PT range ($25–$95) underscores the extreme uncertainty. Intel's P/B of 1.53x suggests modest premium to book. At $66.78, the stock trades 28% above our base IV, consistent with market pricing of foundry optionality. |
| Terminal Growth | gT = 2.5% (base case). Intel is a mature company undergoing a transformation — terminal growth is capped at nominal GDP. If foundry fails, long-term growth could be below GDP (bear: 2.0%). If it succeeds, 3.0% is justified (bull). We do not assume Intel can grow faster than the economy indefinitely. |
| After-Hours Impact | After market close on Apr 23, 2026, Intel stock surged to ~$75.80 (+13.6%) on Q1 2026 earnings results. Our model uses the close price of $66.78 as the reference price. The after-hours move does not change our fundamental assessment — it likely reflects short-covering and momentum, not a structural re-rating. If sustained, the gap to fair value widens further. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.