IREN
IREN
Hold 2026-03-13
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$41.37
Base IV
$60.80
Bear IV
$7.89
Bull IV
$287.17
Entry Zone: 8-56 · Sell Above: 244
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — IREN Limited (IREN) • March 13, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 15.50% • Current Price: $41.37
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
IREN Limited (formerly Iris Energy) is an Australian-listed, Nasdaq-traded company operating large-scale Bitcoin mining facilities powered by 100% renewable energy, primarily hydro in Canada and North America. The company has rapidly expanded its hashrate capacity from under 1 EH/s in 2022 to 35+ EH/s by early 2026, positioning itself among the largest publicly traded miners globally.
IREN is executing a strategic pivot toward AI cloud computing, leveraging its purpose-built data center infrastructure to host NVIDIA H100/H200 GPU clusters for AI training and inference workloads. The Boden AI cloud facility in Texas is a key growth catalyst, with management targeting 800+ MW of total capacity by 2027. This dual-revenue model — Bitcoin mining cash flow funding AI capex — is the central investment thesis but carries significant execution risk.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Mining | $350M | 70% | +147.0% | — | 35+ EH/s; self-mined BTC sold at market |
| AI Cloud (Boden) | $151M | 30% | — | — | GPU colocation; launched FY2025; rapid ramp |
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 7.9% | 59.0% | 75.5% | $187 | $501 |
| EBITDA ($M) | 0.1% | 8.0% | -129.6% | 22.4% | $198 |
| Operating Income ($M) | -1.1% | 0.3% | -160.3% | -28.1% | 17.3% |
| Net Income ($M) | -60.4% | -419.8% | -171.9% | -29.0% | 6.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $-2.93 | $-10.25 | $-3.14 | $-0.29 | $0.39 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | -77.6% | -369.2% | -110.3% | -427.7% | -1127.0% |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $400 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +646.8% | +28.0% | +147.9% | +167.6% |
| EBITDA Margin | 1.3% | 13.6% | -171.7% | 12.0% | 39.6% |
| Operating Margin | -13.9% | 0.5% | -212.3% | -15.0% | 3.5% |
| Net Margin | -764.6% | -711.5% | -227.7% | -15.5% | 1.4% |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$8
🔴 Bear
$61
📊 Base
$287
🚀 Bull
$41.37
Current Price
$65
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 35.0% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 15.50% | $8 | ▼80.9% |
| 📊 Base | 80.0% | 28.0% | 2.5% | 15.50% | $61 | ▲47.0% |
| 🚀 Bull | 120.0% | 45.0% | 3.0% | 15.50% | $287 | ▲594.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 35.0% | Stage 2: 12.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.09B | $0.08B | $0.08B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.12B | $0.09B | $0.16B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.16B | $0.10B | $0.27B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.22B | $0.12B | $0.39B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.29B | $0.14B | $0.53B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.33B | $0.14B | $0.67B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.37B | $0.13B | $0.80B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.41B | $0.13B | $0.93B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.46B | $0.13B | $1.06B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.51B | $0.12B | $1.18B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$3.9B | PV(TV)=$0.9B (44% of EV) | EV=$2.1B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 80.0% | Stage 2: 28.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.12B | $0.10B | $0.10B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.21B | $0.16B | $0.26B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.38B | $0.25B | $0.51B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.68B | $0.38B | $0.89B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.23B | $0.60B | $1.49B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.57B | $0.66B | $2.15B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.01B | $0.73B | $2.88B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.58B | $0.81B | $3.70B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.30B | $0.90B | $4.60B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.22B | $1.00B | $5.60B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$33.3B | PV(TV)=$7.9B (58% of EV) | EV=$13.5B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 120.0% | Stage 2: 45.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.14B | $0.12B | $0.12B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.31B | $0.24B | $0.36B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.69B | $0.45B | $0.81B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.52B | $0.86B | $1.66B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.35B | $1.63B | $3.29B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.86B | $2.05B | $5.34B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $7.04B | $2.57B | $7.91B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.21B | $3.22B | $11.13B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $14.81B | $4.05B | $15.18B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $21.47B | $5.08B | $20.26B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$176.9B | PV(TV)=$41.9B (67% of EV) | EV=$62.1B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.5% | $74 | $77 | $79 | $82 | $85 |
| 14.0% | $70 | $72 | $74 | $76 | $79 |
| 14.5% | $65 | $67 | $69 | $71 | $73 |
| 15.0% | $61 | $63 | $65 | $67 | $69 |
| 15.5% | $58 | $59 | $61 | $62 | $64 |
| 16.0% | $55 | $56 | $57 | $59 | $60 |
| 16.5% | $51 | $53 | $54 | $55 | $57 |
| 17.0% | $49 | $50 | $51 | $52 | $53 |
| 17.5% | $46 | $47 | $48 | $49 | $50 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | EV/Revenue | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN (current) | 11x | 31x | N/M | — | Crypto+AI; high capex cycle |
| CLSK (CleanSpark) | 8x | 25x | N/M | — | Pure-play Bitcoin miner |
| MARA (Marathon) | 7x | 20x | N/M | — | Largest US miner by hashrate |
| RIOT Platforms | 6x | 22x | N/M | — | Miner + AI data center pivot |
| CoreWeave (pvt) | 15x+ | N/M | N/M | — | AI cloud; IPO expected 2025 |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $-3.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-0.29 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.39 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $-0.47 | $0.50 | $1.05 | 19 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $-6.17 | $-0.55 | $1.29 | 19 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $0.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.8B | $1.1B | $1.5B | 19 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.2B | $2.9B | $3.5B | 19 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $64.60 | Range $29–$82
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Knoblauch | Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | $82 | +98.2% |
| Mike Colonnese | HC Wainwright & Co. | Strong Buy | $80 | +93.4% |
| Paul Golding | Macquarie | Buy | $70 | +69.2% |
| Joseph Vafi | Canaccord Genuity | Strong Buy | $70 | +69.2% |
| Michael Ng | Goldman Sachs | Hold | $39 | -5.7% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY2025 | $0.39 vs $0.25 | +$0.14 ✅ | $163.0B vs $141.0B | +$22.0B ✅ | Raised AI targets |
| Q1 FY2025 | $0.12 vs $0.05 | +$0.07 ✅ | $128.0B vs $110.0B | +$18.0B ✅ | Reaffirmed |
| Q4 FY2024 | $-0.10 vs $-0.15 | +$0.05 ✅ | $62.0B vs $57.0B | +$5.0B ✅ | Positive AI commentary |
| Q3 FY2024 | $-0.08 vs $-0.14 | +$0.06 ✅ | $48.0B vs $42.0B | +$6.0B ✅ | Expansion on track |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Analyst dispersion is extreme: EPS range -$6.17 to +$1.29 for FY2027 reflects deep uncertainty about the AI cloud monetization timeline and capex-to-revenue conversion. Revenue estimates are wide ($816M–$3.5B for FY2027). The Goldman Sachs Hold at $39 (below current price) is a notable outlier, cautioning on execution risk. Consistent revenue beats in recent quarters suggest the mining business is performing, but AI cloud ramp is the key swing factor.
💡 Investment Thesis
- AI Cloud Pivot: IREN is converting stranded power capacity into GPU colocation — a far higher-value use than Bitcoin mining. Early Boden contracts suggest $1.5–2.0/watt/month pricing, implying $2.5B+ annual revenue potential at full build-out.
- Renewable Power Moat: 100% renewable energy at <$0.03/kWh provides structural cost advantage over US data center operators paying $0.06–0.10/kWh. This matters enormously as AI hyperscalers face ESG mandates.
- Scale Trajectory: From 1 EH/s (2022) to 35+ EH/s (2026), IREN has demonstrated exceptional execution on hardware deployment and facility construction.
- Joseph's Cost Basis: 2,739 shares at $7.01 avg — an extraordinary 490%+ unrealized gain. The current $41 price reflects AI pivot premium already.
- Bitcoin Mining as Free Optionality: BTC above $80K adds meaningful per-share value above mining costs; any further BTC price appreciation is pure upside.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — IREN Limited (IREN)
Current price: $41.37 | Analyst Avg PT: $64.60
$8
🔴 Bear
$61
📊 Base
$287
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$56 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$34 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$8 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$244 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
IREN is a Hold / Trim at $41 after a 490% gain from Joseph's $7 cost basis. The AI cloud pivot story is compelling but execution risk is high — GPU colocation is a competitive market with Microsoft, Google, and CoreWeave all competing aggressively. The Base DCF of ~$55 implies only 33% upside from current levels, and the model carries extreme uncertainty (Bear IV ~$9).
Recommendation: Trim 30–40% of position to lock in gains and reduce single-stock concentration risk. Hold core position for AI cloud monetization. Re-entry below $25 if execution disappoints. Do not add here — this is a position management decision, not a new buy.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 2,739.0 |
| Average Cost Basis | $7.01 |
| Current Market Value | $113,312 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+94,112 (+490.2%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $113,312 / $200,000 (57%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Approach | IREN is in an intense investment cycle — FCF is -$1.1B in FY2025 due to growth capex. Traditional FCF DCF requires normalizing to steady-state economics. Used $50M as FCF proxy base (FY2025 EBITDA $198M minus estimated maintenance capex). Growth rates modeled as FCF/distributable cash ramp, not top-line revenue. |
| WACC | Beta 2.20 (IREN is effectively leveraged to both BTC price and AI capex sentiment). Rf=4.30%, ERP=5.5%, Ke=16.40%. WACC=15.9% reflects high speculative risk. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$56. Analyst consensus PT $64.60 (+15% vs IV). Within ±20% threshold. Wide scenario spread (Bear $9 / Bull $230) reflects extreme uncertainty in both Bitcoin price and AI cloud monetization success. |
| Key Risks | Bitcoin price decline wiping out mining economics; AI cloud failing to sign hyperscaler contracts; GPU supply constraints; equity dilution from ongoing share issuance (shares grew 82% in FY2025); regulatory risk on crypto mining. |
| Position Note | Joseph holds 2,739 shares at $7.01 avg — ~490% unrealized gain. Position is now $113K market value. Trim recommendation to lock in gains and right-size to target $200K at full position. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.