IREN
IREN
Accumulate 2026-05-10
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$61.20
Base IV
$68.15
Bear IV
$22.15
Bull IV
$131.53
Entry Zone: 21-63 · Sell Above: 112
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — IREN Limited (IREN) • May 10, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 11.49% • Current Price: $61.20
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
IREN Limited (NASDAQ: IREN) is a vertically integrated AI cloud and data center infrastructure company headquartered in Sydney, Australia. Originally founded as a Bitcoin mining operator in 2018, IREN has pivoted aggressively toward AI infrastructure, leveraging its portfolio of secured power (5GW across North America, Europe, and APAC), grid-connected land, and operational data centers to become a major AI compute platform. The company secured a $9.7B Microsoft contract and a $3.4B NVIDIA AI Cloud contract (May 2026), with $3.1B ARR under contract targeting $3.7B by end of CY2026. IREN is deploying 150,000 GPUs across 480MW of capacity in 2026, scaling to 1,210MW in 2027, with a 5GW global pipeline beyond.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI Cloud Services | $430M | 57% | +250.0% | — | Microsoft $9.7B + NVIDIA $3.4B contracts; 150k GPUs |
| Bitcoin Mining | $270M | 36% | -10.0% | — | Declining as ASICs decommissioned for GPU conversion |
| Other / Unallocated | $57M | 7% | +15.0% | — | Hosting, demand response, misc |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +139.9% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Self Funding: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 3.1% | <8% weak |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Contracting | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $8 | $59 | $76 | $187 | $501 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +594.7% | +27.9% | +147.9% | +167.7% |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | 100.0% | 47.8% | 53.5% | 68.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1 | $8 | $-127 | $23 | $98 |
| EBITDA Margin | 8.6% | 13.6% | -167.6% | 12.4% | 19.7% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $-1 | $0 | $-157 | $-27 | $17 |
| Operating Margin | -6.1% | 0.5% | -208.2% | -14.5% | 3.5% |
| Net Income ($M) | $-60 | $-420 | $-172 | $-29 | $87 |
| Net Margin | -710.5% | -710.9% | -227.6% | -15.4% | 17.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $-2.93 | $-10.25 | $-3.14 | $-0.29 | $0.39 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $-79 | $-332 | $-110 | $-428 | $-1,127 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $181 | $12 | $1 | $1 | $964 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+1443.6% (2021→2026)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22.1M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 55.0M | +148.9% | — | — |
| 2023 | 66.8M | +21.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | 187.9M | +181.4% | — | — |
| 2025 | 258.1M | +37.4% | — | — |
| 2026 | 341.0M | +32.1% | — | — |
Severe dilution: shares outstanding grew from 22M (FY2021) to 341M (TTM), a 1,445% increase. No buyback program. Equity issuance is the primary funding mechanism along with convertible notes and debt. NVIDIA's $2.1B investment rights (30M shares at $70) could add further dilution if exercised. Per-share value is significantly diluted even as enterprise value grows — this is a key risk for equity holders.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.40% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.500 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 12.65% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 6.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 5.58% | × (1 − 7%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 83.7% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 16.3% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 11.49% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$22
🔴 Bear
$68
📊 Base
$132
🚀 Bull
$61.20
Current Price
$64
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 50.0% | 15.0% | 2.5% | 12.99% | $22 | ▼63.8% |
| 📊 Base | 70.0% | 18.0% | 3.0% | 11.49% | $68 | ▲11.4% |
| 🚀 Bull | 90.0% | 22.0% | 3.5% | 10.49% | $132 | ▲114.9% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 50.0% | Stage 2: 15.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.59B | $-0.52B | $-0.52B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.49B | $-0.38B | $-0.91B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.09B | $-0.06B | $-0.97B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.47B | $0.29B | $-0.68B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.82B | $0.44B | $-0.24B |
| Year 6 ✦ | Stage 2 | $1.21B | $0.58B | $0.34B |
| Year 7 ✦ | Stage 2 | $1.63B | $0.69B | $1.04B |
| Year 8 ✦ | Stage 2 | $1.97B | $0.74B | $1.78B |
| Year 9 ✦ | Stage 2 | $2.32B | $0.77B | $2.55B |
| Year 10 ✦ | Stage 2 | $2.53B | $0.75B | $3.30B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$24.7B | PV(TV)=$7.3B (69% of EV) | EV=$10.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $10.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $22 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (12.99%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $24.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $7.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($3.3B) + PV of TV ($7.3B) = $10.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $8.8B, divided by shares outstanding = $22 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 70.0% | Stage 2: 18.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.60B | $-0.54B | $-0.54B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.27B | $-0.21B | $-0.75B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.79B | $0.57B | $-0.19B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.50B | $0.97B | $0.78B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.08B | $1.21B | $1.99B |
| Year 6 ✦ | Stage 2 | $2.72B | $1.41B | $3.40B |
| Year 7 ✦ | Stage 2 | $3.45B | $1.61B | $5.01B |
| Year 8 ✦ | Stage 2 | $3.97B | $1.66B | $6.68B |
| Year 9 ✦ | Stage 2 | $4.30B | $1.61B | $8.29B |
| Year 10 ✦ | Stage 2 | $4.67B | $1.57B | $9.87B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$56.6B | PV(TV)=$19.1B (66% of EV) | EV=$28.9B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $28.9B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $68 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (11.49%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $56.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $19.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($9.9B) + PV of TV ($19.1B) = $28.9B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $27.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $68 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 90.0% | Stage 2: 22.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.64B | $-0.58B | $-0.58B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $-0.30B | $-0.25B | $-0.83B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.18B | $0.87B | $0.05B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.55B | $1.71B | $1.76B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.55B | $2.16B | $3.91B |
| Year 6 ✦ | Stage 2 | $4.58B | $2.51B | $6.43B |
| Year 7 ✦ | Stage 2 | $5.39B | $2.68B | $9.11B |
| Year 8 ✦ | Stage 2 | $6.06B | $2.73B | $11.84B |
| Year 9 ✦ | Stage 2 | $6.51B | $2.65B | $14.49B |
| Year 10 ✦ | Stage 2 | $6.83B | $2.52B | $17.00B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$101.0B | PV(TV)=$37.2B (69% of EV) | EV=$54.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $54.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $132 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.49%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $101.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $37.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($17.0B) + PV of TV ($37.2B) = $54.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $52.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $132 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $-698 | $-732 | $-770 | $-815 | $-867 |
| 10.0% | $-644 | $-672 | $-705 | $-742 | $-785 |
| 10.5% | $-596 | $-620 | $-648 | $-679 | $-715 |
| 11.0% | $-554 | $-575 | $-598 | $-624 | $-654 |
| 11.5% | $-516 | $-534 | $-554 | $-577 | $-602 |
| 12.0% | $-482 | $-498 | $-515 | $-534 | $-556 |
| 12.5% | $-451 | $-465 | $-480 | $-497 | $-515 |
| 13.0% | $-424 | $-436 | $-449 | $-463 | $-480 |
| 13.5% | $-399 | $-409 | $-421 | $-433 | $-447 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/S | EV/Revenue | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CoreWeave | CRWV | 28x | 27x | NM | NM | AI cloud, pre-profit, high growth |
| Applied Digital | APLD | 15x | 14x | NM | NM | HPC/data center, early stage |
| Cipher Mining | CIFR | 8x | 7x | 24x | NM | BTC mining + HPC transition |
| Terawulf | WULF | 6x | 5x | 15x | NM | BTC mining + data center |
| IREN | IREN | 27x | 27x | 213x | NM | AI Cloud + BTC mining transition |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $0.000 |
| Current Yield | 0.00% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 0 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | N/M (negative earnings) |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | N/A — IREN does not pay a dividend and is unlikely to initiate one for several years given the massive capex requirements of the 5GW AI Cloud buildout. |
IREN does not pay a dividend. All free cash flow is being reinvested into AI infrastructure buildout (5GW pipeline, GPU deployment). Dividend initiation is not expected until the company reaches sustained positive FCF, likely FY2029+ at the earliest. Income-focused investors should look elsewhere.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $-10.25 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $-3.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-0.29 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.39 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $-1.85 | $0.35 | $4.99 | 19 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.7B | $1.0B | $1.2B | 19 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.9B | $3.0B | $3.8B | 19 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Colonnese | HC Wainwright | Strong Buy | $85 | +38.9% |
| Gregory Lewis | BTIG | Strong Buy | $80 | +30.7% |
| Greg Miller | Citizens | Buy | $80 | +30.7% |
| Joseph Vafi | Canaccord Genuity | Strong Buy | $70 | +14.4% |
| Paul Golding | Macquarie | Buy | $70 | +14.4% |
| Brett Knoblauch | Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | $61 | -0.3% |
| Michael Ng | Goldman Sachs | Hold | $39 | -36.3% |
| Reginald Smith | JP Morgan | Sell | $39 | -36.3% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Structural compute scarcity: The world is structurally short AI compute. IREN's 5GW secured power portfolio and vertical integration (land → power → data center → GPU deployment) is a genuine moat — competitors cannot replicate multi-year power permitting timelines.
- Revenue inflection ahead: With $3.1B ARR under contract ($9.7B Microsoft + $3.4B NVIDIA) and $3.7B targeted by year-end, IREN is at the steepest part of the S-curve. Revenue should grow ~3x from FY26 to FY27, with operating leverage driving outsized margin expansion.
- NVIDIA partnership validates platform: The $3.4B contract plus $2.1B investment rights (30M shares at $70 strike) is a powerful signal — NVIDIA is investing capital tied to execution milestones, not a passive bet. This de-risks the demand side substantially.
- Massive execution risk: Deploying 150k GPUs across 480MW in one year is unprecedented. Construction delays, GPU supply constraints, financing gaps, and customer concentration (2 contracts = ~90% of ARR) could all derail the thesis. The company has never generated positive FCF.
- Crypto overhang: Q3 FY26 revenue dropped 22% QoQ as BTC mining was decommissioned. Until AI Cloud revenue fully replaces and exceeds mining revenue, the transition creates earnings volatility and investor confusion.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2025 (~1 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-182,842 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Executive Leadership Team & Strategy Leads | IREN
Meet IREN's executive leadership team,industry experts driving innovation, operational excellence, and the strategic direction of our global data center business.
Meet IREN's executive leadership team,industry experts driving innovation, operational excellence, and the strategic direction of our global data center business.
IREN Limited (IREN) Leadership & Management Team Analysis -
Mr. William Roberts, also known as Will, is the Co-Founder and Co-Chief Executive Officer at IREN Limited (formerly known as Iris Energy Limited) and has been its Executive Director since November 06, 2018...
Mr. William Roberts, also known as Will, is the Co-Founder and Co-Chief Executive Officer at IREN Limited (formerly known as Iris Energy Limited) and has been its Executive Director since November 06, 2018...
IREN Limited (IREN) Company Profile & Facts - Yahoo Finance
See the company profile for IREN Limited (IREN) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensation.
See the company profile for IREN Limited (IREN) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensation.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Investors | Financials, Stock Info & Reports | IREN
Access investor materials including financial data, stock performance, and corporate disclosures.
Access investor materials including financial data, stock performance, and corporate disclosures.
IREN (Nasdaq:IREN) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St
IREN Limited announced the appointment of Anthony Lewis as Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Lewis joined IREN in July 2025 as Chief Capital Officer, leading the Company’s capital markets strategy and financing activities.
IREN Limited announced the appointment of Anthony Lewis as Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Lewis joined IREN in July 2025 as Chief Capital Officer, leading the Company’s capital markets strategy and financing activities.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.4/5 ★★★☆☆
Culture Signal
Mixed
Employee Review Excerpts
Iren Reviews (4): Pros & Cons of Working At Iren | Glassdoor
4 Iren reviews. A free inside look at company reviews and salaries posted anonymously by employees.
4 Iren reviews. A free inside look at company reviews and salaries posted anonymously by employees.
Working at Iren | Glassdoor
How do employees rate Iren?Employees rate Iren 3.4 out of 5 stars based on 106 anonymous reviews on Glassdoor.
How do employees rate Iren?Employees rate Iren 3.4 out of 5 stars based on 106 anonymous reviews on Glassdoor.
Iren - Old relaxed place to work | Glassdoor
Self paced, relaxed, value added job
Self paced, relaxed, value added job
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — IREN Limited (IREN)
Current price: $61.20 | Analyst Avg PT: $63.50
$22
🔴 Bear
$68
📊 Base
$132
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$63 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$45 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$21 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$112 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Initiate at Accumulate with a Base target of $64. IREN is a high-conviction AI infrastructure play with genuine moat (5GW secured power) and contractual revenue visibility ($3.1B ARR under contract). At the current price of $61.20, the stock trades near our base-case intrinsic value, offering limited margin of safety. The extreme execution risk (negative FCF, 150k GPU deployment, customer concentration), high beta (4.24 raw), and wide analyst dispersion ($39–$85 PTs) warrant a disciplined entry. Starter position at current levels; add aggressively below $48 on execution dips.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 2,739 |
| Average Cost Basis | $7.01 |
| Current Market Value | $167,627 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+148,426 (+773.0%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $167,627 / $200,000 (84%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Type | DCF (FCFF @ WACC). IREN pays no dividend and has deeply negative FCF — DDM is inappropriate. The valuation relies entirely on forward FCFF projections based on revenue ramp and margin expansion assumptions. Negative near-term FCF is expected and normal for a company at this stage of infrastructure buildout. |
| WACC Calibration | Ke = 12.65% (Rf=4.40%, β=1.50 forward, ERP=5.50%). Raw beta from Finnhub is 4.24 (reflects crypto mining volatility). We use a forward beta of 1.50 reflecting the transition to AI infrastructure, which should exhibit lower volatility than pure-play crypto. This is conservative vs. hyperscale peers (EQIX β~0.7, DLR β~0.9) but realistic for a company at IREN's stage. WACC = 11.49%. |
| Revenue Build | FY26 revenue of $976M (consensus). FY27 steps up to ~$2.5B (Base), driven by Microsoft and NVIDIA contracts. Beyond FY27, growth extrapolated based on 5GW deployment schedule and management guidance. This is the single most important assumption — small changes in revenue trajectory have outsized impact on intrinsic value. |
| Margin Assumptions | Base case EBITDA margin ramps from ~28% (FY26) to ~48% (FY28+) as AI Cloud revenue (60%+ gross margin) replaces lower-margin BTC mining. This is aggressive but supported by hyperscale data center economics and IREN's vertical integration. Bear case margins plateau at 42%; Bull case reaches 53%. |
| CapEx Ramp-Down | FY26 capex remains elevated (~85% of revenue) as infrastructure is built. Capex/revenue falls to ~45% in FY27, ~22% in FY28, and ~6% by FY35 as the platform matures. This is the key driver of FCFF turning positive (projected FY28 in Base case). Management has $2.6B in cash (Apr 2026) plus operating cash flows to fund near-term capex. |
| Negative FCF Today | FY2025 FCF was -$1,127M and TTM FCF is -$2,142M. This is not a distress signal — it reflects the massive infrastructure build-out. FCFF turns positive in FY28 (Base case) as capex/revenue normalizes. Bear case: FY29. Bull case: FY28 with higher margins. |
| Dilution | Shares outstanding grew from 22M (FY2021) to 341M (TTM) — a 1,445% increase. NVIDIA's investment rights could add 30M more shares at $70. Ongoing equity issuance is a risk to per-share value even as enterprise value grows. Our 399M diluted share count accounts for this. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV of ~$64 is within ±5% of analyst consensus PT of $63.50, passing the ±20% calibration threshold. Bear IV (~$21) reflects significant execution delays and capital destruction. Bull IV (~$123) reflects accelerated deployment and sustained pricing power. The wide range reflects genuine uncertainty. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.