JHG
JHG
Hold 2026-03-27
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$51.39
Base IV
$55.23
Bear IV
$38.28
Bull IV
$82.80
Entry Zone: 40-51 · Sell Above: 70
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Janus Henderson Group (JHG) • March 27, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 12.00% • Current Price: $51.39
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Janus Henderson Group is a global asset management firm with approximately $380B in AUM, headquartered in London with significant US operations. The firm manages active equity, fixed income, multi-asset, and alternative strategies for institutional and retail clients globally. In 2024, JHG completed a strategic partnership with Victory Capital that expanded its distribution reach and added scale. Revenue grew 25% in FY2025 to $3.1B, driven by market appreciation and the Victory Capital contribution.
JHG operates in the structurally challenged active management industry where fee compression and passive fund flows are persistent headwinds. However, JHG has defended margins through operational discipline (31.5% operating margin in FY2025) and growing its alternatives and fixed income capabilities. The firm generates substantial free cash flow ($711M FY2025) and returns capital aggressively through dividends ($249M) and buybacks ($266M). The stock trades at 9.7x trailing earnings — a steep discount to peers like T. Rowe Price (13x) and Invesco (11x) — reflecting skepticism about active management sustainability.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | $1,550M | 50% | +20.0% | — | Active equity strategies; largest fee contributor |
| Fixed Income | $620M | 20% | +15.0% | — | Taxable and muni bond strategies |
| Multi-Asset | $620M | 20% | +10.0% | — | Balanced and allocation funds |
| Alternatives/Quant | $307M | 10% | +25.0% | — | Highest growth; Intech quant + alternatives |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +17.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 15.6% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 23.0% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.4x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $2,767 | $2,204 | $2,102 | $2,473 | $3,097 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | -20.3% | -4.6% | +17.6% | +25.2% |
| Gross Margin | 46.5% | 39.2% | 39.9% | 40.9% | 45.7% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $862 | $522 | $507 | $670 | $1,013 |
| EBITDA Margin | 31.2% | 23.7% | 24.1% | 27.1% | 32.7% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $821 | $490 | $484 | $646 | $977 |
| Operating Margin | 29.7% | 22.2% | 23.0% | 26.1% | 31.5% |
| Net Income ($M) | $620 | $372 | $392 | $409 | $816 |
| Net Margin | 22.4% | 16.9% | 18.6% | 16.5% | 26.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.57 | $2.23 | $2.37 | $2.56 | $5.23 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $885 | $456 | $431 | $685 | $711 |
| Annual DPS | $1.440 | $1.520 | $1.560 | $1.560 | $1.600 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $310 | $308 | $305 | $395 | $396 |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$38
🔴 Bear
$55
📊 Base
$83
🚀 Bull
$51.39
Current Price
$47
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -3.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 13.50% | $38 | ▼25.5% |
| 📊 Base | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 12.00% | $55 | ▲7.5% |
| 🚀 Bull | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 11.00% | $83 | ▲61.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -3.0% | Stage 2: 1.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.68B | $0.60B | $0.60B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.66B | $0.51B | $1.11B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.64B | $0.44B | $1.55B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.62B | $0.37B | $1.92B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.60B | $0.32B | $2.24B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.61B | $0.28B | $2.52B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.61B | $0.25B | $2.78B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.62B | $0.22B | $3.00B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.63B | $0.20B | $3.20B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.63B | $0.18B | $3.38B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$5.6B | PV(TV)=$1.6B (32% of EV) | EV=$5.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $5.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $38 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (13.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $5.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $1.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($3.4B) + PV of TV ($1.6B) = $5.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $5.9B, divided by shares outstanding = $38 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 2.5% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.72B | $0.64B | $0.64B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.74B | $0.59B | $1.23B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.75B | $0.54B | $1.76B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.77B | $0.49B | $2.25B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.79B | $0.45B | $2.70B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.81B | $0.41B | $3.12B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.83B | $0.38B | $3.49B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.85B | $0.34B | $3.84B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.87B | $0.32B | $4.15B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.90B | $0.29B | $4.44B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$9.7B | PV(TV)=$3.1B (41% of EV) | EV=$7.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $7.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $55 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (12.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $9.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $3.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($4.4B) + PV of TV ($3.1B) = $7.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $8.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $55 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.76B | $0.68B | $0.68B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.82B | $0.66B | $1.34B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.88B | $0.64B | $1.99B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.95B | $0.63B | $2.62B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.03B | $0.61B | $3.23B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.08B | $0.58B | $3.80B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.13B | $0.55B | $4.35B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.19B | $0.52B | $4.87B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.25B | $0.49B | $5.36B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.31B | $0.46B | $5.82B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$16.9B | PV(TV)=$6.0B (51% of EV) | EV=$11.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $11.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $83 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (11.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $16.9B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $6.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($5.8B) + PV of TV ($6.0B) = $11.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $12.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $83 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.0% | $65 | $66 | $68 | $71 | $73 |
| 10.5% | $61 | $63 | $64 | $66 | $69 |
| 11.0% | $58 | $60 | $61 | $63 | $65 |
| 11.5% | $56 | $57 | $58 | $59 | $61 |
| 12.0% | $53 | $54 | $55 | $56 | $58 |
| 12.5% | $51 | $52 | $53 | $54 | $55 |
| 13.0% | $49 | $50 | $51 | $51 | $52 |
| 13.5% | $47 | $48 | $49 | $49 | $50 |
| 14.0% | $45 | $46 | $47 | $47 | $48 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.600 |
| Current Yield | 3.11% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 4 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +2.6% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +1.7% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +2.1% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 30.6% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 34.5% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
JHG's dividend is well-covered at 31% payout ratio. FCF of $711M covers dividends ($249M) nearly 3×. The low payout reflects management preference for buybacks ($266M in FY2025) alongside dividends. Even in the 2022 market downturn (FCF $456M), dividends ($259M) were 1.8× covered. The net cash position ($898M) adds safety. Verdict: Safe — ample coverage even in stress scenarios.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $3.57 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.23 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.37 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.56 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $5.23 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.02 | $4.44 | $5.27 | 10 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $4.21 | $4.82 | $5.58 | 9 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $2.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.3B | $2.7B | $3.1B | 7 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.5B | $2.9B | $3.3B | 7 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Siegenthaler | BofA Securities | Hold | $49 | -4.7% |
| John Dunn | Evercore ISI | Hold | $49 | -4.7% |
| Bill Katz | TD Cowen | Hold | $49 | -4.7% |
| Andrei Stadnik | Morgan Stanley | Hold | $48 | -6.6% |
| Dan Fannon | Jefferies | Hold | $41 | -20.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Deep value at 9.7x earnings: JHG trades at the cheapest multiple among public asset managers. The market prices in permanent active management decline — but $380B AUM, $711M FCF, and a net cash position provide a strong floor.
- Capital return machine: $515M total shareholder return in FY2025 ($249M dividends + $266M buybacks) on a $7.9B market cap = 6.5% total yield. Share count declining from 169M to 153M over 4 years (−9.5%).
- Victory Capital synergies: The 2024 partnership adds distribution scale, ETF manufacturing capabilities, and cost efficiencies that are still being realized. Revenue synergies expected to emerge in 2026-2027.
- Alternatives growth hedge: JHG is investing in alternatives and quantitative strategies where active management commands premium fees. This offsets core equity fee compression.
- Consistent EPS beats: Beat estimates in all 4 quarters of 2025, including a massive Q4 beat ($2.01 vs $1.17 est). Street may be too conservative on 2026-2027 earnings.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Janus Henderson Group (JHG)
Current price: $51.39 | Analyst Avg PT: $47.38
$38
🔴 Bear
$55
📊 Base
$83
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$51 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$47 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$40 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$70 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Hold JHG at current prices (~$51). The stock has rallied 37% over the past year and now trades above the analyst consensus PT of $47. While the 9.7x P/E and 6.5% total yield are attractive, the active management industry headwinds cap re-rating potential. Our DCF Base IV of ~$49-53 suggests fair value near current levels. Accumulate below $41 (analyst low PT) on any market selloff that drags AUM down; the net cash position provides a strong valuation floor.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | Normalized FCF $700M (avg FY2024 $685M + FY2025 $711M). FY2025 was boosted by Victory Capital integration; using 2-year average to smooth one-time synergy effects. |
| WACC Build | WACC = 12.0%. Ke=12.44% (Rf=4.3%, β=1.48, ERP=5.5%). High beta reflects asset manager AUM sensitivity to equity markets. Kd=3.8% after-tax. We=95.2%, Wd=4.8% (minimal leverage). |
| Net Cash Position | JHG has $898M net cash (cash $1,294M − debt $396M). This adds directly to equity value in the DCF. The net cash position provides a valuation floor and supports the aggressive capital return program. |
| Industry Headwinds | Active-to-passive shift is a structural headwind. Fee compression of 2-3% annually is embedded in the Base case via moderate FCF growth (3%). JHG's alternatives push and Victory synergies provide offsets. |
| Sanity Check | Analyst consensus PT $47.38 is 8% below current price — street sees limited upside. Base IV targeted within ±20% of this ($37.90–$56.86). Unanimous "Hold" from 10 analysts. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.