LCID
LCID
Hold 2026-03-12
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$10.68
Base IV
$19.61
Bear IV
$0.71
Bull IV
$87.58
Entry Zone: 1-18 · Sell Above: 74
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Lucid Group (LCID) • March 12, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 16.00% • Current Price: $10.68
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Lucid Group is a luxury electric vehicle manufacturer headquartered in Newark, California, producing the Lucid Air sedan — which holds the world record for EV range at 516 miles per charge. The company is majority-owned (~61%) by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF), which provides a significant capital backstop and strategic access to Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 mobility program. Lucid also licenses its powertrain and battery technology to Aston Martin, providing a nascent B2B revenue stream. The company is in early-stage production ramp with FY2025 vehicle deliveries of approximately 10,241 units, targeting significant production scale at its Arizona factory and planned Saudi Gigafactory (LCID-SA).
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vehicle Sales | $1,270M | 94% | +72.0% | — | Lucid Air luxury EV; FY2025 ~10,241 deliveries; price ~$68K–$250K |
| Technology Licensing & Services | $84M | 6% | +40.0% | — | Powertrain/battery tech licensing to Aston Martin and AMP (Saudi) |
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $27 | $608 | $595 | $808 | $1,354 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $-1,468 | $-2,407 | $-2,866 | $-2,725 | $-3,051 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $-1,530 | $-2,594 | $-3,100 | $-3,021 | $-3,502 |
| Net Income ($M) | $-4,747 | $-1,304 | $-2,828 | $-3,062 | $-3,682 |
| EPS (diluted) | $-64.10 | $-15.11 | $-13.59 | $-12.52 | $-11.81 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $-1,479 | $-3,301 | $-3,400 | $-2,904 | $-3,800 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $1,997 | $2,084 | $2,083 | $2,211 | $2,907 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +2151.9% | -2.1% | +35.8% | +67.6% |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.800 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 14.20% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 7.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 7.00% | × (1 − 0%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 68.0% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 32.0% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 16.00% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$1
🔴 Bear
$20
📊 Base
$88
🚀 Bull
$10.68
Current Price
$20
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 20.0% | 5.0% | 1.5% | 16.00% | $1 | ▼93.3% |
| 📊 Base | 50.0% | 25.0% | 2.5% | 16.00% | $20 | ▲83.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 80.0% | 40.0% | 3.0% | 16.00% | $88 | ▲720.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 20.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 1.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.12B | $0.10B | $0.10B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.14B | $0.11B | $0.21B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.17B | $0.11B | $0.32B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.21B | $0.11B | $0.44B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.25B | $0.12B | $0.55B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.26B | $0.11B | $0.66B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.27B | $0.10B | $0.76B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.29B | $0.09B | $0.85B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.30B | $0.08B | $0.93B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.32B | $0.07B | $1.00B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$2.2B | PV(TV)=$0.5B (34% of EV) | EV=$1.5B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 50.0% | Stage 2: 25.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.15B | $0.13B | $0.13B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.23B | $0.17B | $0.30B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.34B | $0.22B | $0.51B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $0.51B | $0.28B | $0.79B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.76B | $0.36B | $1.15B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.95B | $0.39B | $1.54B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.19B | $0.42B | $1.96B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.48B | $0.45B | $2.42B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.85B | $0.49B | $2.90B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.32B | $0.53B | $3.43B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$17.6B | PV(TV)=$4.0B (54% of EV) | EV=$7.4B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 80.0% | Stage 2: 40.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.18B | $0.16B | $0.16B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.32B | $0.24B | $0.40B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $0.58B | $0.37B | $0.77B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.05B | $0.58B | $1.35B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.89B | $0.90B | $2.25B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.65B | $1.09B | $3.33B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.70B | $1.31B | $4.65B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $5.18B | $1.58B | $6.23B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.26B | $1.91B | $8.14B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.16B | $2.30B | $10.44B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$80.5B | PV(TV)=$18.3B (64% of EV) | EV=$28.7B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.0% | $24 | $25 | $26 | $27 | $28 |
| 14.5% | $23 | $23 | $24 | $25 | $26 |
| 15.0% | $21 | $22 | $23 | $23 | $24 |
| 15.5% | $20 | $20 | $21 | $22 | $22 |
| 16.0% | $19 | $19 | $20 | $20 | $21 |
| 16.5% | $17 | $18 | $18 | $19 | $19 |
| 17.0% | $16 | $17 | $17 | $18 | $18 |
| 17.5% | $15 | $16 | $16 | $16 | $17 |
| 18.0% | $14 | $15 | $15 | $15 | $16 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Price | Fwd P/E | EV/EBITDA | EV/Sales | Yield | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucid Group (LCID) | $10.68 | — | — | 2.0× | n/m | Hold |
| Rivian (RIVN) | $14 | — | — | 3.1× | n/m | Buy |
| Tesla (TSLA) | $278 | 89× | 43× | 7.2× | 0.4% | Hold |
| NIO (NIO) | $4 | — | — | 0.9× | n/m | Hold |
| Polestar (PSNY) | $2 | — | — | 0.5× | n/m | Hold |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $-64.10 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $-15.11 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $-13.59 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-12.52 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $-11.81 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $-9.11 | $-8.11 | $-6.56 | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $-7.89 | $-5.69 | $-3.97 | 14 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $1.7B | $2.4B | $3.3B | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.7B | $4.9B | $6.8B | 14 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $20.20 | Range $10–$30
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Gengaro | Stifel | Hold | $17 | +59.2% |
| Andres Sheppard | Cantor Fitzgerald | Hold | $14 | +31.1% |
| Andrew Percoco | Morgan Stanley | Sell | $10 | -6.4% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $-3.28 vs $-3.05 | $-0.23 ❌ | $0.2B vs $0.2B | +$0.0B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q2 2025 | $-3.02 vs $-2.91 | $-0.11 ❌ | $0.3B vs $0.3B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised |
| Q3 2025 | $-2.88 vs $-3.10 | +$0.22 ✅ | $0.4B vs $0.3B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised |
| Q4 2025 | $-2.63 vs $-2.95 | +$0.32 ✅ | $0.5B vs $0.4B | +$0.1B ✅ | Raised |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Extremely wide analyst PT range ($10–$30) underscores the binary nature of LCID's outlook. Morgan Stanley downgraded to Sell in December 2025 ($10 PT), citing cash burn trajectory. H2 2025 showed sequential improvement — Q4 revenue of $459M beat by $64M, suggesting production ramp is gaining traction. All forward EPS estimates remain deeply negative through 2027, with no analyst modeling profitability before 2029 at earliest.
💡 Investment Thesis
- Best-in-class technology: Lucid's 4.7-mile/kWh efficiency and 516-mile range represent genuine technological differentiation vs. Tesla and legacy OEM EVs — potential licensing revenue stream that the market currently undervalues.
- PIF sponsorship = perpetual funding backstop: Saudi Arabia's $770B wealth fund owns ~61% and has backstopped multiple capital raises. Existential risk (bankruptcy) is near-zero as long as PIF remains committed to Vision 2030 EV goals.
- Saudi Gigafactory ramp: LCID-SA factory will provide low-cost production capacity and captive Saudi government fleet demand — a captive market of 100K+ vehicles/year potential.
- Revenue inflection visible: FY2025 revenue $1.35B (+68% YoY); FY2026E $2.41B (+78%). If this trajectory holds, LCID approaches gross margin breakeven by 2027–2028.
- EV/Revenue cheap vs. peers: At $10.68/share, EV/FY2026E revenue = ~2x vs. Tesla at 7x and Rivian at 3x — LCID's technology and growth rate arguably deserve premium.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Lucid Group (LCID)
Current price: $10.68 | Analyst Avg PT: $20.20
$1
🔴 Bear
$20
📊 Base
$88
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$18 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$10 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$1 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$74 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
LCID is a speculative holding where fundamental DCF value is negative today — the investment thesis is entirely dependent on reaching scale, PIF support, and technology monetization. At $10.68, the stock is near the analyst low PT of $10 (Morgan Stanley Sell) but well below the average PT of $20.20. Hold small speculative position only. This is not a core holding — add only if conviction in Saudi rollout is high. Avoid at position sizes above 0.5% of portfolio.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 450.0 |
| Average Cost Basis | $44.40 |
| Current Market Value | $4,806 |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,174 (-75.9%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $4,806 / $200,000 (2%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.