MTN
MTN
Accumulate 2026-03-29
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$126.49
Base IV
$151.81
Bear IV
$45.37
Bull IV
$290.00
Entry Zone: 48-140 · Sell Above: 246
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Vail Resorts (MTN) • March 29, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.06% • Current Price: $126.49
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Vail Resorts (NYSE: MTN) is the world's leading mountain resort operator, owning and operating 42 ski resorts across North America, Australia, and Europe including iconic properties like Vail, Breckenridge, Park City, and Whistler Blackcomb. The company generates ~60% of revenue from its Epic Pass subscription product, which provides pre-committed revenue and smooths seasonal volatility.
Founded in 1962 and headquartered in Broomfield, CO, Vail has built an unmatched portfolio of premium mountain assets with high barriers to entry — new destination ski resort permitting is virtually impossible. However, the company faces structural risks from climate change (shorter/weaker snow seasons), high leverage ($3.4B net debt, 4.0x EBITDA), and consumer discretionary spending sensitivity.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain (Ski Operations) | $2,640M | 89% | +2.7% | — | Lift revenue, ski school, dining, retail/rental at ski resorts; Epic Pass is ~60% of lift revenue |
| Lodging | $324M | 11% | +1.5% | — | Hotels, luxury rentals, golf; complementary to ski operations; lower margin |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +2.6% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 9.0% | 8–12% adequate |
| FCF Margin | 10.8% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 4.0x | 2–4x moderate |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Contracting | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Downward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,910 | $2,526 | $2,889 | $2,885 | $2,964 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +32.3% | +14.4% | -0.1% | +2.7% |
| Gross Margin | 94.1% | 93.5% | 93.0% | 93.5% | 93.9% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $514 | $854 | $774 | $768 | $856 |
| EBITDA Margin | 26.9% | 33.8% | 26.8% | 26.6% | 28.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $261 | $602 | $504 | $489 | $560 |
| Operating Margin | 13.7% | 23.8% | 17.4% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| Net Income ($M) | $128 | $348 | $266 | $231 | $280 |
| Net Margin | 6.7% | 13.8% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 9.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.13 | $8.55 | $6.69 | $6.09 | $7.53 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $410 | $518 | $323 | $378 | $320 |
| Annual DPS | $3.520 | $7.640 | $8.240 | $8.880 | $8.880 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $3,041 | $2,909 | $2,988 | $3,026 | $3,409 |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$45
🔴 Bear
$152
📊 Base
$290
🚀 Bull
$126.49
Current Price
$166
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -2.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 8.06% | $45 | ▼64.1% |
| 📊 Base | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 8.06% | $152 | ▲20.0% |
| 🚀 Bull | 8.5% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 8.06% | $290 | ▲129.3% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -2.0% | Stage 2: 1.0% | Terminal: 1.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.32B | $0.30B | $0.30B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.30B | $0.26B | $0.55B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.31B | $0.25B | $0.80B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.32B | $0.23B | $1.03B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.33B | $0.22B | $1.26B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.33B | $0.21B | $1.47B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.34B | $0.20B | $1.66B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.34B | $0.18B | $1.85B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.34B | $0.17B | $2.02B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.35B | $0.16B | $2.18B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$5.4B | PV(TV)=$2.5B (53% of EV) | EV=$4.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $4.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $45 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.06%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $5.4B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $2.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($2.2B) + PV of TV ($2.5B) = $4.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $1.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $45 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 4.5% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.38B | $0.35B | $0.35B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.42B | $0.36B | $0.71B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.46B | $0.36B | $1.08B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.49B | $0.36B | $1.44B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.52B | $0.35B | $1.79B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.54B | $0.34B | $2.13B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.56B | $0.32B | $2.45B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.58B | $0.31B | $2.76B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.60B | $0.30B | $3.06B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.62B | $0.28B | $3.34B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$11.4B | PV(TV)=$5.2B (61% of EV) | EV=$8.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $8.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $152 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.06%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $11.4B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $5.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($3.3B) + PV of TV ($5.2B) = $8.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $5.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $152 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 8.5% | Stage 2: 5.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.43B | $0.40B | $0.40B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.51B | $0.44B | $0.83B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.59B | $0.47B | $1.30B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.67B | $0.49B | $1.79B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.74B | $0.50B | $2.29B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.78B | $0.49B | $2.78B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.82B | $0.48B | $3.26B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.87B | $0.47B | $3.73B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.92B | $0.46B | $4.18B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.97B | $0.45B | $4.63B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$19.7B | PV(TV)=$9.1B (66% of EV) | EV=$13.7B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $13.7B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $290 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.06%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $19.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $9.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($4.6B) + PV of TV ($9.1B) = $13.7B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $10.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $290 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $199 | $222 | $252 | $292 | $348 |
| 6.6% | $170 | $189 | $211 | $240 | $279 |
| 7.1% | $147 | $162 | $179 | $201 | $229 |
| 7.6% | $128 | $139 | $153 | $170 | $191 |
| 8.1% | $112 | $121 | $132 | $145 | $161 |
| 8.6% | $98 | $105 | $114 | $125 | $138 |
| 9.1% | $85 | $92 | $99 | $108 | $118 |
| 9.6% | $75 | $80 | $86 | $93 | $102 |
| 10.1% | $65 | $70 | $75 | $81 | $88 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | P/E (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vail Resorts (MTN) | 19.0x | 9.5x | 14.7x | 7.0% | Ski resort operator; high leverage |
| Cedar Fair (FUN) | 16.0x | 8.5x | 12.0x | 5.5% | Amusement parks; seasonal |
| Six Flags Ent (FUN) | 15.0x | 8.0x | 11.5x | 3.0% | Value parks; post-merger |
| Marriott Vacations (VAC) | 11.2x | 8.2x | 10.5x | 3.5% | Resort/vacation ownership |
| MTN 5-yr avg | 25.0x | 13.5x | — | 4.5% | Historical reference |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $8.880 |
| Current Yield | 7.02% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 0 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +0.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +7.7% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.2% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 139.0% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 103.0% ⚠️ |
| Sustainability Verdict | Watch |
MTN's $8.88 dividend is dangerously close to FCF/share ($8.59 in FY2025), with EPS payout >100%. The dividend has been frozen at $2.22/qtr since early 2023 — management is not comfortable raising it. With net debt of $3.4B (4.0× EBITDA) and FCF constrained by capital expenditures for resort improvements, the dividend is sustainable only if FCF/share holds above $8.50. A poor snow season or macro slowdown could force a cut. Verdict: Watch / At Risk — dividend requires ongoing FCF recovery. Monitor FY2026 FCF trajectory closely; a cut to $6–7 is possible if conditions deteriorate.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $3.13 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $8.55 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $6.69 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $6.09 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $7.53 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $5.61 | $6.67 | $7.48 | 11 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $7.07 | $7.72 | $8.62 | 11 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.8B | $2.9B | $3.0B | 11 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.0B | $3.1B | $3.3B | 11 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Chaiken | Mizuho | Buy | $200 | +58.1% |
| Matthew Boss | JP Morgan | Hold | $156 | +23.3% |
| Stephen Grambling | Morgan Stanley | Hold | $147 | +16.2% |
| Brandt Montour | Barclays | Sell | $138 | +9.1% |
| Anthony Bonadio | Wells Fargo | Hold | $135 | +6.7% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Unmatched resort portfolio with near-zero competitive moat: Owning 42 resorts across North America, Europe, and Australia is effectively irreplicable — no new destination ski resorts are being permitted, and Vail has systematically acquired the best properties.
- Epic Pass subscription model transforms revenue visibility: ~60% of lift revenue is pre-committed via Epic Pass ($1,000/year), reducing weather sensitivity and providing visibility into next-season revenue regardless of snowfall timing.
- 7% yield with thin but adequate FCF coverage: At 7% yield on a 10%+ shareholder yield (including buybacks), MTN offers significant income while you wait for the business to re-rate.
- Significant upside to analyst consensus: 12 analysts with Buy consensus and $165.50 average PT — 31% upside from current price. The sell-off from $200+ reflects near-term weather/macro concerns, not structural impairment.
- Capital allocation discipline: $3.25B repurchased in recent years (24% of market cap); management has shown commitment to capital return even amid operational headwinds.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Vail Resorts (MTN)
Current price: $126.49 | Analyst Avg PT: $165.50
$45
🔴 Bear
$152
📊 Base
$290
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$140 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$99 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$48 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$246 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Initiate at Accumulate with a Base DDM price target of ~$115–130. MTN trades at significant discount to analyst consensus ($165.50) and the stock is down ~40% from its 2021 peak amid legitimate near-term concerns (weak FY2026 EPS) but solid long-term positioning.
The 7% dividend yield provides income support but FCF coverage is thin ($8.59 FCF/share vs. $8.88 DPS). Build a position below $120, targeting full size at $110–115. The risk/reward is compelling at current levels if you believe the Epic Pass model remains durable. A dividend cut would change the thesis; watch FCF/share trajectory carefully.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF/Share Base | Used $8.59 FCF/share (FY2025) as DDM base. EPS payout ratio >100% makes DPS-only DDM inappropriate; FCF is the proper distributable cash flow metric for MTN. |
| Ke = 11.8% | CAPM: Rf=4.35% + β=1.35 × ERP=5.5% = 11.775%. High beta reflects MTN's leverage (4x EBITDA), seasonal business, and consumer discretionary exposure. Higher Ke warranted vs. industrials. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$120–135 vs. analyst consensus PT $165.50 — within ±20% threshold. ✅ (DDM produces more conservative value than analyst PTs reflecting FCF coverage concerns.) |
| Dividend Sustainability | FCF/share $8.59 vs. DPS $8.88 — barely covered. One poor snow season ($500M EBITDA vs. normalized $850M) could reduce FCF/share to ~$6–7, which is below DPS. Management has frozen the dividend since 2023 in recognition of this constraint. |
| Epic Pass Value | The Epic Pass subscription model (~$1,000/pass × 2M+ holders = $2B+ pre-committed revenue) is a significant intangible asset not fully captured in a traditional DCF/DDM. This provides a floor to earnings even in poor snow years — partial explanation for analyst PTs above model IV. |
| Bear Case | A dividend cut to $5–6/share would likely accelerate the decline toward $70–80. Bear case is not just weather — it's leverage + weather + potential secular demand shift. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.