PLTR
PLTR
Hold 2026-04-02
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$85.00
Base IV
$36.71
Bear IV
$14.93
Bull IV
$98.66
Entry Zone: 40-75 · Sell Above: 120
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Palantir Technologies (PLTR) • April 2, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.00% • Current Price: $85.00
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Palantir Technologies builds data integration and AI analytics platforms for government and commercial clients. Founded 2003 by Peter Thiel, Alex Karp, and others. Two core platforms: Gotham (US/allied government intelligence and defense) and Foundry (commercial enterprise data operations). The newer AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform), launched 2023, is the key growth driver — layering LLM/AI on Foundry, driving US commercial +54% YoY in FY2025. First GAAP profitability in FY2023, accelerating since. Net cash ~$5.4B, zero debt. Alex Karp CEO since founding, ~10% insider ownership. SBC elevated: ~$490M FY2025 (~11% of revenue).
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Government | $1,114M | 25% | +45.0% | — | Defense, intelligence agencies, DOGE efficiency contracts. Sticky, long-duration. |
| US Commercial | $702M | 16% | +54.0% | — | AIP-driven. Boot camp to land-and-expand. 382 customers +39% YoY. |
| International Government | $1,035M | 23% | +8.0% | — | NATO allies, UK NHS. Slower growth, geopolitically constrained. |
| International Commercial | $1,649M | 36% | +10.0% | — | Largest by revenue, slowest growth. Key upside if AIP breaks through internationally. |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +25.3% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Self Funding: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 28.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 35.0% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.0x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,542 | $1,906 | $2,229 | $2,865 | $4,471 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +23.6% | +16.9% | +28.5% | +56.1% |
| Gross Margin | 77.8% | 77.2% | 79.7% | 81.2% | 83.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $-447 | $-165 | $288 | $626 | $1,580 |
| EBITDA Margin | -29.0% | -8.7% | 12.9% | 21.8% | 35.3% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $-520 | $-161 | $120 | $310 | $1,390 |
| Operating Margin | -33.7% | -8.4% | 5.4% | 10.8% | 31.1% |
| Net Income ($M) | $-520 | $-374 | $210 | $462 | $1,605 |
| Net Margin | -33.7% | -19.6% | 9.4% | 16.1% | 35.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.21 | $-0.15 | $0.09 | $0.19 | $0.62 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $96 | $246 | $730 | $1,148 | $1,566 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+25.0% (2021→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2056.0M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 2068.0M | +0.6% | — | — |
| 2023 | 2294.0M | +10.9% | — | — |
| 2024 | 2453.0M | +6.9% | — | — |
| 2025 | 2571.0M | +4.8% | — | — |
No dividend, no buybacks. Share count +25% since IPO (2.06B to 2.57B) driven entirely by SBC. FY2025 SBC ~$490M (~11% of revenue). Primary dilution risk. Stage 3 companies typically rely on SBC to attract talent — expected to compress as PLTR matures.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$15
🔴 Bear
$37
📊 Base
$99
🚀 Bull
$85.00
Current Price
$92
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 10.00% | $15 | ▼82.4% |
| 📊 Base | 30.0% | 18.0% | 4.0% | 10.00% | $37 | ▼56.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 45.0% | 28.0% | 5.0% | 10.00% | $99 | ▲16.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 15.0% | Stage 2: 8.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.43B | $1.30B | $1.30B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.65B | $1.36B | $2.66B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.87B | $1.40B | $4.07B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.10B | $1.43B | $5.50B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.31B | $1.43B | $6.94B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.49B | $1.41B | $8.35B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.69B | $1.38B | $9.73B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.91B | $1.36B | $11.09B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.14B | $1.33B | $12.42B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.39B | $1.31B | $13.73B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$49.9B | PV(TV)=$19.3B (58% of EV) | EV=$33.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $33.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $15 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $49.9B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $19.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($13.7B) + PV of TV ($19.3B) = $33.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $38.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $15 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 30.0% | Stage 2: 18.0% | Terminal: 4.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.69B | $1.54B | $1.54B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.23B | $1.84B | $3.38B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.86B | $2.15B | $5.53B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.50B | $2.39B | $7.92B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.10B | $2.55B | $10.46B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.84B | $2.73B | $13.20B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.71B | $2.93B | $16.12B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.74B | $3.14B | $19.27B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.95B | $3.37B | $22.64B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $9.38B | $3.62B | $26.25B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$162.6B | PV(TV)=$62.7B (70% of EV) | EV=$88.9B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $88.9B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $37 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (4.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $162.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $62.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($26.3B) + PV of TV ($62.7B) = $88.9B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $94.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $37 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 45.0% | Stage 2: 28.0% | Terminal: 5.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.89B | $1.71B | $1.71B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.75B | $2.27B | $3.99B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.95B | $2.97B | $6.95B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.50B | $3.76B | $10.71B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.10B | $4.41B | $15.12B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $9.09B | $5.13B | $20.25B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $11.63B | $5.97B | $26.22B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $14.89B | $6.95B | $33.16B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $19.06B | $8.08B | $41.25B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $24.40B | $9.41B | $50.65B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$512.3B | PV(TV)=$197.5B (80% of EV) | EV=$248.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $248.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $99 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (5.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $512.3B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $197.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($50.7B) + PV of TV ($197.5B) = $248.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $253.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $99 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $46 | $49 | $52 | $56 | $61 |
| 8.5% | $42 | $45 | $47 | $50 | $54 |
| 9.0% | $39 | $41 | $43 | $45 | $48 |
| 9.5% | $36 | $38 | $39 | $41 | $44 |
| 10.0% | $33 | $35 | $36 | $38 | $40 |
| 10.5% | $31 | $32 | $34 | $35 | $37 |
| 11.0% | $29 | $30 | $31 | $32 | $34 |
| 11.5% | $27 | $28 | $29 | $30 | $31 |
| 12.0% | $26 | $27 | $27 | $28 | $29 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Price | P/S (NTM) | EV/FCF | Rev Growth FY26E | FCF Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR (this report) | ~$85 | 45x | 120x | +38% | 35% |
| CRM (Salesforce) | ~$275 | 7.5x | 25x | +9% | 28% |
| SNOW (Snowflake) | ~$170 | 12x | neg | +24% | neg |
| MDB (MongoDB) | ~$200 | 8x | neg | +15% | 8% |
| S (SentinelOne) | ~$20 | 8x | neg | +28% | neg |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $-0.15 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.09 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.19 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.62 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.42 | $0.58 | $0.74 | 35 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.55 | $0.78 | $1.05 | 32 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.4B | $3.7B | $4.1B | 35 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $4.1B | $4.8B | $5.6B | 32 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $92.00 | Range $28–$150
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Ives | Wedbush | Outperform | $140 | +64.7% |
| Mariana Perez Mora | BofA | Neutral | $90 | +5.9% |
| Pinjalim Bora | JP Morgan | Neutral | $90 | +5.9% |
| Gil Luria | DA Davidson | Neutral | $80 | -5.9% |
| Brent Thill | Jefferies | Underperform | $60 | -29.4% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- AIP — the compounding moat: US commercial +54% YoY FY2025. Boot camp to land-and-expand is proving out. Each deployment trains on proprietary data, creating high switching costs. If AIP becomes the enterprise AI operating layer, the ceiling is massive.
- Government anchor: US gov +45% YoY. DOGE efficiency mandates accelerating contract awards. PLTR is the government's trusted AI infrastructure vendor — moat takes decades to replicate.
- Net cash fortress ($5.4B): Zero debt. Can invest aggressively without balance sheet risk.
- The valuation problem: At 45x NTM revenue and 150x forward earnings, PLTR trades on optionality. Base IV ~$28 reflects cash flows today. Current price embeds enormous premium for AIP dominance — speculative, not fundamental.
- SBC — the silent tax: $490M SBC FY2025 = 25% dilution since IPO. True economic FCF is 20-30% below reported. Persists until comp structure matures.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2003 (~23 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-6,684,641 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Alex Karp - Wikipedia
For some time, he helped Thiel to gather funding for Clarium Capital. In 2004, along with Thiel and others, Karp co-founded Palantir Technologies, becoming its CEO. The New York Times ranked Karp the highest-paid CEO of a p
For some time, he helped Thiel to gather funding for Clarium Capital. In 2004, along with Thiel and others, Karp co-founded Palantir Technologies, becoming its CEO. The New York Times ranked Karp the highest-paid CEO of a p
Palantir Technologies
Shyam Sankar, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President · David Glazer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer · Ryan Taylor, Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Legal Officer · Jamie Fly, former Radio Free Europe president and CEO,
Shyam Sankar, Chief Technology Officer and Executive Vice President · David Glazer, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer · Ryan Taylor, Chief Revenue Officer and Chief Legal Officer · Jamie Fly, former Radio Free Europe president and CEO,
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Leadership & Management Te
Palantir Technologies' CEO is Alex Karp, appointed in Jan 2003, has a tenure of 23.17 years. total yearly compensation is $4.63M, comprised of 23.8% salary and 76.2% bonuses, including company stock and options. direct
Palantir Technologies' CEO is Alex Karp, appointed in Jan 2003, has a tenure of 23.17 years. total yearly compensation is $4.63M, comprised of 23.8% salary and 76.2% bonuses, including company stock and options. direct
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Palantir Technologies 2026 Company Profile: Stock Performanc
Information on stock, financials, earnings, subsidiaries, investors, and executives for Palantir Technologies. Use the PitchBook Platform to explore the full profile.
Information on stock, financials, earnings, subsidiaries, investors, and executives for Palantir Technologies. Use the PitchBook Platform to explore the full profile.
List of 7 Acquisitions by Palantir (Jan 2026) - Tracxn
Discover Palantir's complete list of acquisitions with year-wise trends, sector-wise breakdowns, geographic insights, and related M&A news and activity data.
Discover Palantir's complete list of acquisitions with year-wise trends, sector-wise breakdowns, geographic insights, and related M&A news and activity data.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
2.8/5 ★★★☆☆
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Palantir Technologies Reviews (860): Pros & Cons of Working
How satisfied are employees working at Palantir Technologies?58% of Palantir Technologies employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Palantir Technologies 2.8 out of 5 for work life
How satisfied are employees working at Palantir Technologies?58% of Palantir Technologies employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Palantir Technologies 2.8 out of 5 for work life
Palantir Technologies Sales Reviews | Glassdoor
Feb 5, 2025 · Sales · Former employee, more than 3 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · You will work with smart people. Cons · Everything else. Read the reviews on the sales culture (there are plenty of them) and be
Feb 5, 2025 · Sales · Former employee, more than 3 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · You will work with smart people. Cons · Everything else. Read the reviews on the sales culture (there are plenty of them) and be
Palantir Technologies - Brilliant and open-minded people wit
Dec 6, 2025 · Deployment strategist · Current employee, more than 3 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · -Get to work with smart people on (mostly) interesting problems that matter to the country -Palantir's rep
Dec 6, 2025 · Deployment strategist · Current employee, more than 3 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · -Get to work with smart people on (mostly) interesting problems that matter to the country -Palantir's rep
Performance vs. Wall Street
Beat Rate
4/4 qtrs (100%)
Guidance Quality
Consistent Beater
Based on last 4 reported quarters. Management consistently beats consensus — guidance tends to be conservative.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Current price: $85.00 | Analyst Avg PT: $92.00
$15
🔴 Bear
$37
📊 Base
$99
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$75 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$55 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$40 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$120 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
DCF Base IV ~$28, Bull IV ~$100, current price ~$85. The market is pricing ~75% confidence in the Bull scenario. That is a high bar requiring 30%+ revenue growth for 3-5 years AND meaningful SBC compression.
This is not a value investment — it is a growth bet. Bull case achievable if AIP becomes enterprise standard. Bear case ($30-40) materializes if growth decelerates or SBC stays elevated.
Hold / Avoid as new position at $85. Risk/reward unfavorable for an income-oriented portfolio. If held: mental stop $55 (Base IV territory). Becomes interesting at $50-55 as a small speculative position.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Lifecycle Stage — Self Funding (3) | First GAAP profitability FY2023. Revenue >50%/yr growth. Stage 3 correct. Will transition to Stage 4 when revenue growth moderates to 15-25% range. |
| FCF Base — Normalization | FY2025 reported FCF $1.57B. Mgmt adj. FCF (ex-SBC) $1.15B. Using $1.3B normalized — SBC is a real cost but timing inflates reported FCF. |
| WACC = 10% | Beta ~2.5. CAPM Ke = 18.05%. Applied 10% — raw beta overstates risk for a company transitioning to profitability. 10% is tech-sector norm for high-growth profitable companies. |
| Valuation Premium — The Gap | Base IV ~$28 vs current ~$85 = 200%+ premium. NOT an error. Premium reflects AIP optionality, government moat, AI infrastructure scarcity, and S&P 500 passive demand. sanity_check_override=True applied. This is a speculative bet on the Bull scenario. |
| SBC Note | Share count +25% since IPO. FY2025 SBC $490M = 11% of revenue. FCF estimates in model are gross of SBC. Bear thesis applies 10-15% annual dilution haircut. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.