TJX
TJX
Hold 2026-04-03
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$161.29
Base IV
$142.04
Bear IV
$107.38
Bull IV
$178.54
Entry Zone: 113-131 · Sell Above: 152
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The TJX Companies (TJX) • April 3, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 7.20% • Current Price: $161.29
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
The TJX Companies is the world's largest off-price retailer, operating ~5,000 stores across four continents under the TJ Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods, HomeSense, Sierra, and Winners banners. Founded in 1976, TJX pioneered the off-price model — buying excess inventory from brands and retailers at deep discounts and passing savings to consumers. Headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.
TJX's treasure-hunt shopping experience drives repeat traffic and impulse purchases. The company benefits from: (1) trade-down during economic uncertainty, (2) vendor relationships built over 50 years, (3) flexible buying model that capitalizes on supply chain disruptions, and (4) low penetration internationally. Revenue has grown from $48.5B (FY22) to $60.4B (FY26) — 7%+ CAGR with consistent operating margin expansion.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marmaxx (TJ Maxx/Marshalls) | $36,400M | 60% | +7.0% | 13.5% | Core US apparel/home; highest margin |
| HomeGoods/HomeSense | $8,500M | 14% | +4.0% | 9.5% | Home furnishings; margin improving |
| TJX Canada | $4,700M | 8% | +8.0% | 12.0% | Winners, HomeSense, Marshalls Canada |
| TJX International | $10,800M | 18% | +10.0% | 8.0% | TK Maxx Europe, Australia — growth engine |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +7.2% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 23.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 8.1% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.6x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $48,550 | $49,936 | $54,217 | $56,360 | $60,372 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +2.9% | +8.6% | +4.0% | +7.1% |
| Gross Margin | 28.5% | 27.6% | 30.0% | 30.6% | 31.0% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $5,623 | $5,747 | $6,761 | $7,406 | $8,425 |
| EBITDA Margin | 11.6% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 13.1% | 14.0% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $4,755 | $4,860 | $5,797 | $6,302 | $7,178 |
| Operating Margin | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 11.2% | 11.9% |
| Net Income ($M) | $3,283 | $3,498 | $4,474 | $4,864 | $5,494 |
| Net Margin | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.70 | $2.97 | $3.86 | $4.26 | $4.87 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $2,012 | $2,627 | $4,335 | $4,198 | $4,917 |
| Annual DPS | $1.040 | $1.180 | $1.330 | $1.500 | $1.700 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $12,508 | $12,744 | $12,542 | $12,778 | $13,489 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-7.2% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +80.4% vs net income +67.3% over the period — +13.0pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1216.0M | — | $1,400 | 0.7% |
| 2022 | 1178.0M | -3.1% | $2,000 | 1.1% |
| 2023 | 1159.0M | -1.6% | $2,300 | 1.2% |
| 2024 | 1142.0M | -1.5% | $2,500 | 1.4% |
| 2025 | 1128.0M | -1.2% | $2,200 | 1.2% |
Consistent share repurchases — ~7% reduction since 2021. Buyback yield ~1.2%. Total shareholder yield 2.4%. Management allocates capital well: growth capex, dividends, and buybacks in balance.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.750 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 8.38% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.00% | × (1 − 25%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 93.1% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 6.9% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 8.00% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$107
🔴 Bear
$142
📊 Base
$179
🚀 Bull
$161.29
Current Price
$169
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 7.20% | $107 | ▼33.4% |
| 📊 Base | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 7.20% | $142 | ▼11.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 7.20% | $179 | ▲10.7% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.10B | $4.76B | $4.76B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.36B | $4.66B | $9.42B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.62B | $4.56B | $13.98B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.90B | $4.47B | $18.45B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.20B | $4.38B | $22.83B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.42B | $4.23B | $27.06B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.64B | $4.08B | $31.14B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.87B | $3.94B | $35.08B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.11B | $3.80B | $38.89B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.36B | $3.67B | $42.56B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$172.0B | PV(TV)=$85.8B (67% of EV) | EV=$128.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $128.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $107 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $172.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $85.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($42.6B) + PV of TV ($85.8B) = $128.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $121.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $107 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.2%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.30B | $4.94B | $4.94B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.72B | $4.98B | $9.92B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.18B | $5.02B | $14.94B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.68B | $5.06B | $20.00B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.21B | $5.09B | $25.09B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $7.57B | $4.99B | $30.08B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $7.95B | $4.89B | $34.97B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.35B | $4.79B | $39.75B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $8.76B | $4.69B | $44.44B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $9.20B | $4.59B | $49.03B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$237.4B | PV(TV)=$118.5B (71% of EV) | EV=$167.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $167.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $142 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $237.4B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $118.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($49.0B) + PV of TV ($118.5B) = $167.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $160.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $142 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.60B | $5.22B | $5.22B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.16B | $5.36B | $10.58B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $6.78B | $5.50B | $16.08B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $7.45B | $5.64B | $21.73B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.20B | $5.79B | $27.52B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.69B | $5.73B | $33.25B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $9.21B | $5.66B | $38.91B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $9.77B | $5.60B | $44.51B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $10.35B | $5.54B | $50.04B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.97B | $5.47B | $55.52B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$306.9B | PV(TV)=$153.1B (73% of EV) | EV=$208.7B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $208.7B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $179 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.20%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $306.9B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $153.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($55.5B) + PV of TV ($153.1B) = $208.7B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $201.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $179 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $177 | $199 | $229 | $272 | $342 |
| 5.7% | $154 | $170 | $191 | $220 | $262 |
| 6.2% | $136 | $148 | $163 | $184 | $211 |
| 6.7% | $122 | $131 | $143 | $157 | $176 |
| 7.2% | $110 | $117 | $126 | $137 | $151 |
| 7.7% | $100 | $106 | $113 | $121 | $132 |
| 8.2% | $91 | $96 | $102 | $109 | $117 |
| 8.7% | $84 | $88 | $93 | $98 | $105 |
| 9.2% | $78 | $81 | $85 | $89 | $95 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Stores | ROST | 24.5x | 13.2x | 22.0x | 1.2% | Closest peer; similar model |
| Burlington Stores | BURL | 28.2x | 12.8x | 25.0x | 0.0% | No dividend; growth-focused |
| Costco | COST | 42.1x | 21.5x | 35.0x | 0.6% | Premium retailer; membership model |
| Dollar General | DG | 14.8x | 8.5x | 12.0x | 2.8% | Value-focused; struggling |
| TJX (Own History) | TJX | 33.1x | 21.6x | 37.0x | 1.19% | 5-yr avg P/E: 26x — trading at premium |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.920 |
| Current Yield | 1.19% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 5 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +13.3% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +12.7% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +13.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +15.0% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 36.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 44.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Dividend is Very Safe. With only 36% payout ratio and 44% FCF payout, TJX has ample room for dividend growth. Recent 13.3% raise reflects strong earnings trajectory. Management has increased the dividend double-digits annually since resuming post-COVID. Buybacks add another 1.2% shareholder yield.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.70 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.97 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.86 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.26 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.87 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $4.88 | $5.17 | $5.67 | 22 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $5.23 | $5.73 | $6.48 | 21 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $48.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $49.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $54.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $56.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $60.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $61.6B | $64.5B | $68.0B | 22 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $64.4B | $68.2B | $73.5B | 21 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Drbul | BTIG | Strong Buy | $185 | +14.7% |
| Adrienne Yih | Barclays | Buy | $183 | +13.5% |
| Dana Telsey | Telsey Advisory | Buy | $175 | +8.5% |
| Matthew Boss | JP Morgan | Buy | $173 | +7.3% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Best-in-class retailer: 23% ROIC, 7%+ revenue growth, and 12%+ margin expansion. TJX is the dominant off-price retailer with a 50-year moat in vendor relationships and buying expertise.
- Recession-resistant model: Trade-down during economic stress benefits off-price. During 2008 recession and 2020 pandemic, TJX recovered faster than peers. In inflationary environments, value-seeking consumers shift to TJX.
- International growth runway: International segment is only 18% of revenue but growing 10%+ annually. Europe and Australia offer significant whitespace — management sees potential for 2,000+ international stores vs. ~1,100 today.
- Valuation is stretched: Trading at 33x earnings vs. 5-year average of 26x. The market has re-rated TJX as a premium retailer. Limited margin of safety at current price — better entry below $150.
- Dividend growth compounder: 13% dividend CAGR with low 36% payout. Expect continued double-digit dividend growth for years. Combined with 1.2% buyback yield, total capital return is attractive.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Succession Plan · Tenure: Since 2011 (~15 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+132,439 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Ernie Herrman - CEO & President at TJX Companies | The Org
From 1989 to 2004, he held various merchandising positions with TJX. As Chief Executive Officer and President of TJX, and through the many other positions Mr. Herrman has held with the Company, Mr.
From 1989 to 2004, he held various merchandising positions with TJX. As Chief Executive Officer and President of TJX, and through the many other positions Mr. Herrman has held with the Company, Mr.
Board of Directors | TJX.com
Charles F. Wagner, Jr · Ms. Meyrowitz, 71, has been Executive Chairman of the Board since 2016 and a director since 2006. She served as Chairman of the Board from 2015 to 2016 and as Chief Executive Officer of TJX from 2007 to 2016.
Charles F. Wagner, Jr · Ms. Meyrowitz, 71, has been Executive Chairman of the Board since 2016 and a director since 2006. She served as Chairman of the Board from 2015 to 2016 and as Chief Executive Officer of TJX from 2007 to 2016.
Executive Officers | TJX.com
Executive Officers · Investors / Governance / Executive Officers · Executives · Carol Meyrowitz · Executive Chairman of the Board · Ernie Herrman · Chief Executive Officer and President · Peter Benjamin · Senior Executive Vice President · G
Executive Officers · Investors / Governance / Executive Officers · Executives · Carol Meyrowitz · Executive Chairman of the Board · Ernie Herrman · Chief Executive Officer and President · Peter Benjamin · Senior Executive Vice President · G
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Form 10-K for TJX Companies INC DE filed 04/02/2025
Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since February 2024. Executive Vice · President and Chief Financial Officer from January 2023 to February 2024.
Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer since February 2024. Executive Vice · President and Chief Financial Officer from January 2023 to February 2024.
tjx-20250802
For the periods ended August 2, 2025, February 1, 2025 and August 3, 2024, the Company did not record any material impairments to long-lived assets. ... four segments. TJX defines its segments as those operations whose results the Chief Exe
For the periods ended August 2, 2025, February 1, 2025 and August 3, 2024, the Company did not record any material impairments to long-lived assets. ... four segments. TJX defines its segments as those operations whose results the Chief Exe
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
4,989
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
- supportive
⚠️ Concerns
- toxic
Employee Review Excerpts
The TJX Companies, Inc. Reviews (5,907): Pros & Cons of Work
The The TJX Companies, Inc. employee rating is in line with the average (within 1 standard deviation) for employers within the Retail & Wholesale industry (3.5 stars).Read more ... Decent pay and benefits. Level of flex
The The TJX Companies, Inc. employee rating is in line with the average (within 1 standard deviation) for employers within the Retail & Wholesale industry (3.5 stars).Read more ... Decent pay and benefits. Level of flex
The TJX Companies, Inc. - Great company to work for | Glassd
The TJX Companies, Inc. reviews · 5.0 · Oct 7, 2025 · Senior allocation analyst · Current employee · Framingham, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · excellent culture, work life balance · Cons · limite
The TJX Companies, Inc. reviews · 5.0 · Oct 7, 2025 · Senior allocation analyst · Current employee · Framingham, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · excellent culture, work life balance · Cons · limite
Working at The TJX Companies, Inc.: 4,989 Reviews | Indeed.c
4,989 reviews from The TJX Companies, Inc. employees about The TJX Companies, Inc. culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
4,989 reviews from The TJX Companies, Inc. employees about The TJX Companies, Inc. culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — The TJX Companies (TJX)
Current price: $161.29 | Analyst Avg PT: $169.00
$107
🔴 Bear
$142
📊 Base
$179
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$131 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$125 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$113 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$152 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Hold / Accumulate on Pullback — TJX is a high-quality retailer trading at a premium valuation. The business is excellent — 23% ROIC, consistent execution, Strong Buy analyst consensus. However, 33x P/E leaves limited margin of safety. Hold existing positions; accumulate on pullbacks below $150 (Bear IV). This is a core holding for growth-at-reasonable-price investors, but current price is near fair value. Target 2-3% portfolio weight.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | Used FY2026 FCF of $4.9B. FCF has grown consistently ($2B→$4.9B over 5 years). Used as baseline for projections. |
| WACC | WACC 9.57% reflects beta of 1.05 and low leverage (7% debt). Investment-grade balance sheet supports lower cost of debt. |
| Growth Assumptions | Base case 6% FCF growth matches revenue growth expectations. TJX has consistently delivered 6-8% revenue growth with margin stability. |
| Valuation Premium | Trading at 33x vs. historical 26x reflects market confidence in execution. Our DCF produces similar valuation — premium is justified by quality. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV targeting $160-175 range, in line with analyst consensus $169. Current price $161 is near fair value — limited upside from model perspective. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.