TTD
TTD
Accumulate 2026-05-07
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$24.01
Base IV
$26.90
Bear IV
$16.53
Bull IV
$39.26
Entry Zone: 17-25 · Sell Above: 35
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) • May 7, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 14.50% • Current Price: $24.01
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
The Trade Desk is the leading independent demand-side platform (DSP) in programmatic advertising, serving brands and agencies across CTV, display, video, audio, and retail media. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in Ventura, CA, the company processes over $800M in daily bid requests and has expanded into connected TV (CTV), identity resolution (Unified ID 2.0), and commerce media partnerships. Revenue reached $2.90B in FY2025 with 27.5% FCF margins, though growth has decelerated from 31.9% (FY2022) to 18.5% (FY2025), and Q1 2026 guidance implies only ~10% YoY growth.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Programmatic Advertising (DSP) | $2,896M | 100% | +18.5% | — | No segment breakdown; all revenue from ad platform |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +18.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 17.8% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 27.5% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.6x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Downward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,196 | $1,578 | $1,946 | $2,445 | $2,896 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +31.9% | +23.3% | +25.6% | +18.5% |
| Gross Margin | 81.5% | 82.2% | 81.2% | 80.7% | 78.6% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $167 | $168 | $280 | $517 | $705 |
| EBITDA Margin | 14.0% | 10.6% | 14.4% | 21.1% | 24.3% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $125 | $114 | $200 | $427 | $589 |
| Operating Margin | 10.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 17.5% | 20.3% |
| Net Income ($M) | $138 | $53 | $179 | $393 | $443 |
| Net Margin | 11.5% | 3.4% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 15.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.28 | $0.11 | $0.36 | $0.78 | $0.90 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $324 | $465 | $552 | $641 | $796 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $285 | $261 | $236 | $312 | $436 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-1.0% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 498.5M | — | $57 | 0.5% |
| 2022 | 499.9M | +0.3% | $49 | 0.4% |
| 2023 | 500.2M | +0.1% | $647 | 5.4% |
| 2024 | 501.9M | +0.3% | $235 | 1.9% |
| 2025 | 493.6M | -1.7% | $1,380 | 11.6% |
TTD launched aggressive buybacks in FY2025, repurchasing $1.38B of stock (approximately 2.1% of market cap). FY2023 saw $647M in buybacks, and FY2024 $235M. Total share count declined from 501.9M (FY2024) to 493.6M (FY2025) diluted, a 1.7% reduction. The company has no dividend and returns capital exclusively through buybacks. Buyback yield at current prices is approximately 1.67%.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.38% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.080 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.36% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.40% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 2.55% | × (1 − 25%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 96.3% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 3.7% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 14.50% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$17
🔴 Bear
$27
📊 Base
$39
🚀 Bull
$24.01
Current Price
$46
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 17.00% | $17 | ▼31.1% |
| 📊 Base | 14.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 14.50% | $27 | ▲12.0% |
| 🚀 Bull | 18.0% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 13.00% | $39 | ▲63.5% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.86B | $0.73B | $0.73B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.93B | $0.68B | $1.41B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.00B | $0.63B | $2.04B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.08B | $0.58B | $2.62B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.17B | $0.53B | $3.15B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.23B | $0.48B | $3.63B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.29B | $0.43B | $4.06B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.35B | $0.39B | $4.44B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.42B | $0.35B | $4.79B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.49B | $0.31B | $5.10B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$10.5B | PV(TV)=$2.2B (30% of EV) | EV=$7.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $7.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $17 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (17.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $10.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $2.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($5.1B) + PV of TV ($2.2B) = $7.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $8.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $17 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 14.0% | Stage 2: 8.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.91B | $0.79B | $0.79B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.03B | $0.79B | $1.58B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.18B | $0.79B | $2.37B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.34B | $0.78B | $3.15B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.53B | $0.78B | $3.93B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.65B | $0.73B | $4.66B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.79B | $0.69B | $5.35B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.93B | $0.65B | $6.01B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.08B | $0.62B | $6.62B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.25B | $0.58B | $7.20B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$20.2B | PV(TV)=$5.2B (42% of EV) | EV=$12.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $12.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $27 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (14.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $20.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $5.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($7.2B) + PV of TV ($5.2B) = $12.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $13.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $27 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 18.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.94B | $0.83B | $0.83B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.11B | $0.87B | $1.70B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.31B | $0.91B | $2.60B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.54B | $0.95B | $3.55B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.82B | $0.99B | $4.54B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.00B | $0.96B | $5.50B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.20B | $0.94B | $6.44B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.42B | $0.91B | $7.35B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.67B | $0.89B | $8.24B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.93B | $0.86B | $9.10B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$31.9B | PV(TV)=$9.4B (51% of EV) | EV=$18.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $18.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $39 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (13.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $31.9B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $9.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($9.1B) + PV of TV ($9.4B) = $18.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $19.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $39 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.5% | $31 | $31 | $32 | $33 | $34 |
| 13.0% | $29 | $30 | $31 | $31 | $32 |
| 13.5% | $28 | $28 | $29 | $30 | $30 |
| 14.0% | $27 | $27 | $28 | $28 | $29 |
| 14.5% | $26 | $26 | $26 | $27 | $27 |
| 15.0% | $25 | $25 | $25 | $26 | $26 |
| 15.5% | $24 | $24 | $24 | $25 | $25 |
| 16.0% | $23 | $23 | $23 | $24 | $24 |
| 16.5% | $22 | $22 | $22 | $23 | $23 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🌊 Elliott Wave Analysis
Elliott Wave structure analysis based on 500 days of price history. Current position and wave progress help evaluate entry timing.
| Structure | Type | Span | Waves | Score | Rules |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impulse 1 | Impulse | $132.53 → $67.64 | 1→2→3→4→5 | 10.8 | R1:100 R2:100 R3:100 |
| Correction 2 | Correction | $89.76 → $20.09 | A→B→C | 5.4 | R1:100 R2:100 R3:100 |
Current position: In Correction 2, Wave C
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.11 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.78 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.90 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.95 | $1.08 | $1.25 | — | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.15 | $1.35 | $1.60 | — | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $1.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.0B | $3.2B | $3.4B | — | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.9B | — | Estimate |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Market leader in independent programmatic advertising — The Trade Desk is the largest independent DSP, benefiting from agency demand for neutral, transparent ad buying outside the walled gardens of Google/Meta/Amazon.
- Connected TV (CTV) is a structural tailwind — CTV ad spending is growing 20%+ annually, and TTD's OpenPath and Unified ID 2.0 give it a moat in identity resolution and supply-chain transparency for premium video inventory.
- FCF generative with strong margins — 27.5% FCF margin and $867M net cash position provide financial flexibility. FY2025 FCF of $796M grew 24% YoY, demonstrating operating leverage even as revenue growth slows.
- Significant risk from Publicis overhang — In March 2026, Publicis (one of the world's largest ad agency groups) reportedly advised clients against using TTD's platform, creating a cloud of uncertainty over near-term revenue trajectory.
- Valuation reset creates opportunity — At $24, TTD trades at 14.6x forward FCF and 11.3x forward P/E, near the low end of its historical range. The stock is down 73% from its 52-week high, pricing in substantial bad news already.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2009 (~17 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+9,098,927 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Our Leadership | The Trade Desk
Prior to Reddit, Vollero was the CFO of Allied Universal, the largest U.S. security and facility services firm. In addition, he served as Snapchat’s first CFO, guiding its IPO and transition to a public company. During his tenure at Snap, V
Prior to Reddit, Vollero was the CFO of Allied Universal, the largest U.S. security and facility services firm. In addition, he served as Snapchat’s first CFO, guiding its IPO and transition to a public company. During his tenure at Snap, V
Jeff Green - Founder & CEO at The Trade Desk | LinkedIn
Founder & CEO at The Trade Desk ... · Experience: The Trade Desk · Location: Ventura · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Jeff Green’s profile on LinkedIn, a ......
Founder & CEO at The Trade Desk ... · Experience: The Trade Desk · Location: Ventura · 500+ connections on LinkedIn. View Jeff Green’s profile on LinkedIn, a ......
The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Leadership & Management Team Anal
Trade Desk's CEO is Jeff Green, appointed in Nov 2009, has a tenure of 16.42 years. total yearly compensation is $6.76M, comprised of 17.8% salary and 82.2% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 1
Trade Desk's CEO is Jeff Green, appointed in Nov 2009, has a tenure of 16.42 years. total yearly compensation is $6.76M, comprised of 17.8% salary and 82.2% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 1
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Trade Desk (TTD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript - AOL
For Q4, we expect revenue to be at least $840 million. Excluding the benefit of U.S. Political ad spend in 2024, our estimated growth in Q4 of this year would be approximately 18.5% on a year-over-year basis.
For Q4, we expect revenue to be at least $840 million. Excluding the benefit of U.S. Political ad spend in 2024, our estimated growth in Q4 of this year would be approximately 18.5% on a year-over-year basis.
Our Leadership | The Trade Desk
Samantha Jacobson is Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk. As Chief Strategy Officer, Jacobson manages strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives to reinforce TTD’s position as a
Samantha Jacobson is Chief Strategy Officer and Executive Vice President at The Trade Desk. As Chief Strategy Officer, Jacobson manages strategic investments and cross-functional initiatives to reinforce TTD’s position as a
Employee Ratings
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- great culture
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
The Trade Desk "leadership" Reviews | Glassdoor
Dec 15, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee, more than 1 year · New York, NY · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Free lunch and decent office. Cons · The culture that once made this a great place to work
Dec 15, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee, more than 1 year · New York, NY · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Free lunch and decent office. Cons · The culture that once made this a great place to work
The Trade Desk Reviews (608): Pros & Cons of Working At The
"great culture and works always interesting" "Great people with years and (sometimes) decades of experience; a lot of people work 5+ years at the company" "great benefits and my boss cared about me&
"great culture and works always interesting" "Great people with years and (sometimes) decades of experience; a lot of people work 5+ years at the company" "great benefits and my boss cared about me&
The Trade Desk Trading Specialist Reviews | Glassdoor
Nov 13, 2025 · Trading specialist · Current employee, more than 3 years · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · The people and the culture are top of the list. The company has great benefits for
Nov 13, 2025 · Trading specialist · Current employee, more than 3 years · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · The people and the culture are top of the list. The company has great benefits for
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)
Current price: $24.01 | Analyst Avg PT: $46.22
$17
🔴 Bear
$27
📊 Base
$39
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$25 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$21 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$17 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$35 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Accumulate. At $24.01, The Trade Desk trades roughly 12% below our base-case DCF value of $27, offering a reasonable margin of safety for a high-quality platform with 27.5% FCF margins and a dominant position in independent programmatic advertising. The Publicis overhang is real but may prove temporary, and CTV structural growth remains intact. We recommend starting a position at current levels with fuller allocation reserved for $21 and below.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
TTD base case WACC of 14.5% reflects elevated risk from Publicis controversy (March 2026), revenue deceleration (guidance of ~10% for Q1 2026 vs 18.5% historical), and NASDAQ 100 removal (Dec 2025). Pure CAPM WACC (~10.7%) understates the real risk. The official analyst consensus PT of $46.22 includes stale pre-crash targets; recent post-crash analyst PT average is ~$31. Base IV of ~$27 is within 20% of recent consensus.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.