Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The Trade Desk (TTD) • March 11, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.53% • Current Price: $27.66
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
The Trade Desk (TTD) is the largest independent demand-side platform (DSP) in programmatic
advertising, founded in 2009 by CEO Jeff Green. Advertisers use TTD's platform to buy digital
ad inventory across connected TV (CTV), streaming, display, mobile, and audio channels in
real-time. As an independent DSP (not owned by a media company), TTD has no conflict of interest
— it acts purely as a buy-side agent for advertisers and agencies.
Recent Crisis: In February 2026, TTD reported Q4 FY2025
results that missed consensus revenue estimates. CEO Jeff Green publicly acknowledged execution
failures — a rare admission that spooked the market. The stock collapsed from ~$80 to ~$27,
erasing $25B+ in market cap. This was TTD's first significant miss since going public in 2016.
Multiple analysts cut price targets dramatically (Piper Sandler: $50 → $28; DA Davidson: $54 → $32).
Strategic Position: Despite the miss, TTD's long-term
thesis remains intact. Connected TV (CTV) is the fastest-growing segment of digital advertising.
TTD's Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) is becoming the privacy-preserving identity standard post-cookie.
Kokai AI platform (launched 2024) improves campaign performance through AI optimization.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,196 | $1,578 | $1,946 | $2,445 | $2,896 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $167 | $168 | $281 | $515 | $705 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $125 | $114 | $200 | $427 | $589 |
| Net Income ($M) | $138 | $53 | $179 | $393 | $443 |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.28 | $0.11 | $0.36 | $0.78 | $0.90 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $324 | $465 | $552 | $641 | $796 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $285 | $261 | $236 | $312 | $436 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +31.9% | +23.3% | +25.6% | +18.4% |
📈 DCF Scenarios
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 10.0% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 10.53% | $32 | ▲15.3% |
| 📊 Base | 18.0% | 10.0% | 2.5% | 10.53% | $50 | ▲82.4% |
| 🚀 Bull | 26.0% | 14.0% | 3.0% | 10.53% | $80 | ▲190.9% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.88B | $0.79B | $0.79B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $0.96B | $0.79B | $1.58B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.06B | $0.78B | $2.37B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.17B | $0.78B | $3.15B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.28B | $0.78B | $3.92B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.36B | $0.75B | $4.67B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.44B | $0.71B | $5.38B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.53B | $0.69B | $6.07B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.62B | $0.66B | $6.73B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.72B | $0.63B | $7.36B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$20.5B | PV(TV)=$7.5B (51% of EV) | EV=$14.9B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 18.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $0.94B | $0.85B | $0.85B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.11B | $0.91B | $1.76B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.31B | $0.97B | $2.73B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.54B | $1.03B | $3.76B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.82B | $1.10B | $4.86B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.00B | $1.10B | $5.96B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.20B | $1.09B | $7.06B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.42B | $1.09B | $8.14B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.67B | $1.08B | $9.23B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.93B | $1.08B | $10.30B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$37.4B | PV(TV)=$13.8B (57% of EV) | EV=$24.1B |
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 26.0% | Stage 2: 14.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.00B | $0.91B | $0.91B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.26B | $1.03B | $1.94B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.59B | $1.18B | $3.12B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.01B | $1.34B | $4.47B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.53B | $1.53B | $6.00B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.88B | $1.58B | $7.58B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.29B | $1.63B | $9.21B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.75B | $1.68B | $10.89B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.27B | $1.73B | $12.62B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.87B | $1.79B | $14.41B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$66.6B | PV(TV)=$24.5B (63% of EV) | EV=$38.9B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 8.5% | $63 | $66 | $70 | $74 | $79 |
| 9.0% | $58 | $61 | $64 | $67 | $72 |
| 9.5% | $54 | $56 | $59 | $62 | $65 |
| 10.0% | $51 | $52 | $54 | $57 | $60 |
| 10.5% | $47 | $49 | $51 | $53 | $55 |
| 11.0% | $44 | $46 | $47 | $49 | $51 |
| 11.5% | $42 | $43 | $44 | $46 | $47 |
| 12.0% | $40 | $41 | $42 | $43 | $44 |
| 12.5% | $38 | $38 | $39 | $40 | $42 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/FCF (NTM) | EV/Sales | Rev Growth | FCF Margin |
|---|
| The Trade Desk | TTD | 17x | 4.4x | +14% | 27% |
| Magnite | MGNI | 12x | 1.8x | +12% | 22% |
| DoubleVerify | DV | 18x | 3.5x | +14% | 25% |
| Integral Ad Science | IAS | 15x | 2.8x | +10% | 22% |
| PubMatic | PUBM | 8x | 1.5x | +8% | 30% |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| FY2021 | $0.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2022 | $0.11 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2023 | $0.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2024 | $0.78 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2025 | $0.90 | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2026 | $1.67 | $2.09 | $2.49 | 37 | Estimate |
| FY2027 | $1.81 | $2.43 | $2.84 | 34 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| FY2021 | $1.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2022 | $1.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2023 | $1.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2024 | $2.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2025 | $2.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| FY2026 | $3.0B | $3.3B | $3.6B | 37 | Estimate |
| FY2027 | $3.1B | $3.7B | $4.1B | 34 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $50.88 | Range $23–$115
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| Stephen Ju | UBS | Strong Buy | $44 | +59.1% |
| Justin Patterson | Keybanc | Buy | $35 | +26.5% |
| Tom White | DA Davidson | Strong Buy | $32 | +15.7% |
| Thomas Champion | Piper Sandler | Hold | $28 | +1.2% |
| Alicia Reese | Wedbush | Sell | $23 | -16.8% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|
| Q4 FY2025 | $0.33 vs $0.41 | $-0.08 ❌ | $0.7B vs $0.8B | $-0.0B ❌ | Q1 below consensus |
| Q3 FY2025 | $0.33 vs $0.39 | $-0.06 ❌ | $0.6B vs $0.6B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised Q4 |
| Q2 FY2025 | $0.39 vs $0.36 | +$0.03 ✅ | $0.6B vs $0.6B | +$0.0B ✅ | In-line |
| Q1 FY2025 | $0.22 vs $0.21 | +$0.01 ✅ | $0.6B vs $0.6B | +$0.0B ✅ | Raised FY |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
The February 2026 miss shattered TTD's 40-quarter beat streak. The wide PT range ($23–$115) reflects maximum analyst uncertainty — some believe the miss is temporary (infrastructure upgrade disruption), others see structural competitive erosion. Near-term PTs ($23–$44) from recently revised analysts are more reliable than the $115 target which has not been updated. Stock at $27.66 is already below 5 out of 5 recently revised analyst PTs, suggesting the selloff may have overshot to the downside.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case: The Q4 2025 miss was a one-time execution
failure during platform transition to Kokai AI. TTD's moat — independent DSP position, UID2
identity standard, CTV leadership — is intact. At $27, the stock trades at 17× current FCF,
the cheapest it has been since 2019. If TTD returns to 20%+ growth by Q3 2026, the stock
re-rates back to $50–70.
Bear Case: The miss was structural, not temporal.
Amazon DSP, Google DV360, and The Trade Desk are converging on the same premium CTV
inventory. Independent DSPs lose pricing power as walled gardens grow. Jeff Green's
admission of "disappointing" execution raises governance concerns. One miss becomes two.
Base Thesis: TTD is a screaming contrarian buy at
$27.66. The market has overreacted to one quarter's miss. FCF is $796M, growing, and the
company has $867M net cash. The stock trades at 4.4× EV/Sales vs a 5-year average of 15–20×
— the multiple compression is extreme. The real debate is whether this is a dip or a
deterioration. We think it's a dip. Analyst consensus PT of $50.88 implies 84% upside.
Joseph holds 314 shares @ $78.19 avg cost — currently -64.6% unrealized (-$15,797).
This is the portfolio's worst position by unrealized loss. The decision: hold and wait for
recovery, or cut losses. Given the DCF base case of $50 and the intact business fundamentals,
we recommend Hold — do not sell at these depressed levels, but do not average down aggressively
until Q1 FY2026 earnings show the miss was temporary.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — The Trade Desk (TTD)
Current price: $27.66 | Analyst Avg PT: $50.88
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$46 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$41 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$34 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$68 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 314 |
| Average Cost Basis | $78.19 |
| Current Market Value | $8,685 |
| Unrealized P&L | $-15,866 (-64.6%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $8,685 / $200,000 (4%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
