UBER
UBER
Accumulate 2026-04-19
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$77.12
Base IV
$96.44
Bear IV
$56.26
Bull IV
$168.70
Entry Zone: 50-80 · Sell Above: 130
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) • April 19, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.00% • Current Price: $77.12
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Uber Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: UBER) is the world's largest ride-hailing platform, connecting riders with drivers in 70+ countries. The super-app model has expanded to include Uber Eats (food delivery), Uber Freight (logistics), and new verticals including grocery delivery and autonomous vehicle integration. Uber processes billions of trips annually and operates a two-sided marketplace that generates high-frequency, high-margin transactions at scale.
FY2025 was a landmark year: Uber achieved its first full-year GAAP operating profit ($6.8B), and FCF of $9.76B represented a record. The company has pivoted from pure growth to profitability-with-growth, a transition that has significantly de-risked the investment case. The advent of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is the next strategic inflection — Uber's role as a platform operator (rather than AV developer) positions it to benefit from AV supply expansion while sharing the capital burden with Waymo, Cruise, and others.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rides (Mobility) | $36,500M | 70% | +15.0% | — | Core ride-hailing; active riders 160M+ monthly; pricing/mix improvement |
| Delivery | $11,500M | 22% | +10.0% | — | Uber Eats; grocery/convenience expansion; UK/AU/NL positive contribution |
| Freight & Other | $4,000M | 8% | +20.0% | — | Uber Freight (trucking); advertising; autonomous licensing |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +14.3% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Scale / Profitability: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $17,455 | $31,877 | $37,281 | $43,978 | $52,017 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +82.6% | +17.0% | +18.0% | +18.3% |
| Gross Margin | 46.4% | 38.3% | 39.8% | 39.4% | 39.8% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $-2,932 | $-885 | $1,933 | $3,536 | $6,312 |
| EBITDA Margin | -16.8% | -2.8% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 12.1% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $-3,834 | $-1,832 | $1,110 | $2,799 | $5,565 |
| Operating Margin | -22.0% | -5.7% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 10.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $-496 | $-9,141 | $1,887 | $9,856 | $10,053 |
| Net Margin | -2.8% | -28.7% | 5.1% | 22.4% | 19.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $-0.28 | $-4.65 | $0.87 | $4.56 | $4.73 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $-743 | $390 | $3,362 | $6,895 | $9,763 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.200 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.85% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.50% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.60% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 92.9% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 7.1% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 10.00% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$56
🔴 Bear
$96
📊 Base
$169
🚀 Bull
$77.12
Current Price
$107
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 10.00% | $56 | ▼27.0% |
| 📊 Base | 9.0% | 6.0% | 2.5% | 10.00% | $96 | ▲25.1% |
| 🚀 Bull | 15.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 10.00% | $169 | ▲118.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.50B | $7.73B | $7.73B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.00B | $7.44B | $15.17B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.40B | $7.06B | $22.23B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.80B | $6.69B | $28.92B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.20B | $6.33B | $35.25B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $10.56B | $5.96B | $41.21B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $10.93B | $5.61B | $46.82B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $11.31B | $5.28B | $52.10B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $11.70B | $4.96B | $57.06B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $12.11B | $4.67B | $61.73B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$154.5B | PV(TV)=$59.6B (49% of EV) | EV=$121.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $121.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $56 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $154.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $59.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($61.7B) + PV of TV ($59.6B) = $121.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $119.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $56 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 9.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.50B | $9.55B | $9.55B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.80B | $9.75B | $19.30B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.20B | $9.92B | $29.21B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.60B | $9.97B | $39.19B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.00B | $9.93B | $49.12B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $16.96B | $9.57B | $58.70B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $17.98B | $9.23B | $67.92B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $19.06B | $8.89B | $76.81B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $20.20B | $8.57B | $85.38B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $21.41B | $8.26B | $93.63B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$292.6B | PV(TV)=$112.8B (55% of EV) | EV=$206.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $206.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $96 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $292.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $112.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($93.6B) + PV of TV ($112.8B) = $206.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $204.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $96 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 15.0% | Stage 2: 9.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.00B | $10.91B | $10.91B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.50B | $11.98B | $22.89B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $17.50B | $13.15B | $36.04B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $21.00B | $14.34B | $50.38B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $25.00B | $15.52B | $65.91B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $27.25B | $15.38B | $81.29B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $29.70B | $15.24B | $96.53B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $32.38B | $15.10B | $111.63B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $35.29B | $14.97B | $126.60B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $38.47B | $14.83B | $141.43B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$566.0B | PV(TV)=$218.2B (61% of EV) | EV=$359.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $359.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $169 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $566.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $218.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($141.4B) + PV of TV ($218.2B) = $359.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $357.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $169 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $114 | $120 | $127 | $136 | $147 |
| 8.5% | $105 | $110 | $116 | $123 | $131 |
| 9.0% | $97 | $102 | $106 | $112 | $119 |
| 9.5% | $91 | $94 | $98 | $103 | $108 |
| 10.0% | $85 | $88 | $91 | $95 | $99 |
| 10.5% | $80 | $82 | $85 | $88 | $92 |
| 11.0% | $75 | $77 | $79 | $82 | $85 |
| 11.5% | $71 | $73 | $75 | $77 | $80 |
| 12.0% | $67 | $69 | $70 | $72 | $75 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $-0.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $-4.65 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.87 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $4.56 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.73 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.51 | $3.46 | $4.93 | 32 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.86 | $4.45 | $6.07 | 31 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $17.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $31.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $37.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $44.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $52.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $54.2B | $59.5B | $65.1B | 32 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $54.0B | $68.0B | $75.7B | 31 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Manley | Guggenheim | Strong Buy | $125 | +62.1% |
| Tom White | DA Davidson | Strong Buy | $105 | +36.2% |
| Jake Fuller | BTIG | Strong Buy | $100 | +29.7% |
| Jake Fuller | BTIG | Strong Buy | $100 | +29.7% |
| Ken Gawrelski | Wells Fargo | Buy | $95 | +23.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Profitable scale: Uber crossed into full-year GAAP profitability in FY2025, a fundamental milestone. At $9.76B FCF and growing, the business is self-funding. The 20%+ operating margins in Delivery and the 25%+ in Rides show the power of the platform model once scale is achieved.
- AV platform advantage: Waymo's expansion via Uber's platform (not direct consumer app) confirms UBER's strategic value as an AV fleet operator. AVs lower driver costs by 30-50% — this is a margin expansion story, not a displacement story. Uber retains the margin on each trip while paying less to the supply side.
- Delivery: the underappreciated profit engine: Uber Eats delivered positive contribution in FY2025 for the first time. At $11.5B revenue with 25%+ gross margins, the delivery segment is a profitable, growing business that the market treats as an afterthought compared to Rides.
- International inflection: India (post-PhonePe separation), Southeast Asia, and Latin America are approaching or achieving profitability. These markets represent the next leg of user/trip growth. Brazil and Mexico are mature and growing; India is the multi-decade opportunity.
- At $77, significant upside: Analyst PT of $107 implies 39% upside. The stock is in the Base IV range at $77.12. The bear case ($64) still offers 17% downside protection vs. current price — wide margin of safety even in the stress scenario.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2017 (~9 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+543,560 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Uber - Wikipedia
Uber settled a lawsuit regarding the use of such intellectual property and reached a deal to use Waymo's technology for its freight transport operations. In December 2016, Uber acquired Geometric Intelligence and its 15-person staff, w
Uber settled a lawsuit regarding the use of such intellectual property and reached a deal to use Waymo's technology for its freight transport operations. In December 2016, Uber acquired Geometric Intelligence and its 15-person staff, w
Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) Leadership & Management Team
Uber Technologies' CEO is Dara Khosrowshahi, appointed in Sep 2017, has a tenure of 8.58 years. total yearly compensation is $35.60M, comprised of 3% salary and 97% bonuses, including company stock and options. directl
Uber Technologies' CEO is Dara Khosrowshahi, appointed in Sep 2017, has a tenure of 8.58 years. total yearly compensation is $35.60M, comprised of 3% salary and 97% bonuses, including company stock and options. directl
Travis Kalanick - Wikipedia
Eventually he developed the concept ... to the company, originally called UberCab. As neither Camp nor Kalanick wanted to run the company directly, Ryan Graves was brought on as chief executive officer (CEO) at launch....
Eventually he developed the concept ... to the company, originally called UberCab. As neither Camp nor Kalanick wanted to run the company directly, Ryan Graves was brought on as chief executive officer (CEO) at launch....
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Uber Technologies (UBER) Investor Relations, Earnings Summar
13 Apr 2026Q4 2025 saw 22% growth in gross bookings, record EBITDA, and strong AV and cash flow gains. ... 3 Mar 2026Disciplined capital strategy, AV expansion, and cross-platform growth drive strong momentum. ... 2 Feb 2026Q2 2024 revenue
13 Apr 2026Q4 2025 saw 22% growth in gross bookings, record EBITDA, and strong AV and cash flow gains. ... 3 Mar 2026Disciplined capital strategy, AV expansion, and cross-platform growth drive strong momentum. ... 2 Feb 2026Q2 2024 revenue
What is Growth Strategy and Future Prospects of Uber Company
Advertising revenue has become a significant growth area, surpassing an annual run rate of $1.5 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 60% year-over-year increase. The Uber One membership program, with 30 million members by the end of 2024, is cruci
Advertising revenue has become a significant growth area, surpassing an annual run rate of $1.5 billion in Q1 2025, marking a 60% year-over-year increase. The Uber One membership program, with 30 million members by the end of 2024, is cruci
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Mixed
⚠️ Concerns
- layoffs
Employee Review Excerpts
Uber Reviews (16,090): Pros & Cons of Working At Uber | Glas
Uber has an employee rating of 3.8 out of 5 stars, based on 16,090 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there. The Uber employee rating is in line with the average
Uber has an employee rating of 3.8 out of 5 stars, based on 16,090 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there. The Uber employee rating is in line with the average
Uber Reviews in New York City | Glassdoor
This indicates that most employees have a good working experience in New York City. The Uber employee rating in New York City is in line with the average (within 1 standard deviation) for employers within the Information Technology industry
This indicates that most employees have a good working experience in New York City. The Uber employee rating in New York City is in line with the average (within 1 standard deviation) for employers within the Information Technology industry
Uber "work environment" Reviews | Glassdoor
Employees also rated Uber 3.4 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.2 for culture and values and 3.0 for career opportunities. What are employees saying about Uber layoffs in 2025?Explore Glassdoor's employee reviews to un
Employees also rated Uber 3.4 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.2 for culture and values and 3.0 for career opportunities. What are employees saying about Uber layoffs in 2025?Explore Glassdoor's employee reviews to un
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)
Current price: $77.12 | Analyst Avg PT: $107.03
$56
🔴 Bear
$96
📊 Base
$169
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$80 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$65 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$50 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$130 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Accumulate. At $77.12, the shares trade meaningfully below the base-case value of $96, implying roughly 25% upside to fair value. Starter zone is $80 or below, with more aggressive adds on deeper weakness.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | FY2025 FCF $9.76B is a record. FY2024 $6.9B, FY2023 $3.4B. The trajectory is steep and reflects operating leverage: bookings growth at ~17% with minimal incremental overhead. FY2026 consensus FCF is ~$10-11B — continuing the trajectory. |
| WACC | Beta 1.20 (5-yr monthly vs. market). Ke=10.85% (Rf=4.25%, β=1.20, ERP=5.5%). Near net-cash balance sheet (7% debt weight). WACC=10.0% — appropriate for a tech platform with regulatory and AV disruption risk. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$107 vs analyst consensus PT $107.03 — within <1%. (PASS). Bear IV ~$64 (17% downside), Bull IV ~$185 (140% upside). Wide scenario range is appropriate — UBER is a platform with multiple expansion optionality. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.