CMDY
CMDY
Strong Buy 2026-04-13
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$59.26
Base IV
$133.01
Bear IV
$103.47
Bull IV
$172.92
Entry Zone: 98-122 · Sell Above: 153
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY) • April 13, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 8.00% • Current Price: $59.26
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY) is a commodity ETF that provides exposure to a diversified basket of commodities through futures contracts. The ETF rolls futures contracts monthly to maintain continuous exposure to the commodity markets.
CMDY pays a high distribution yield (~10%) primarily from commodity futures rolling gains and underlying asset income. The high yield is not from earnings (ETFs don't have earnings) but from the structure of commodity futures markets and the ETF's distribution policy.
This is an income-focused ETF for investors seeking exposure to commodities through a tax-efficient structure. The high yield comes with higher volatility and potential return of capital components.
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return (Distribution Payer): Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | — | — |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Margin | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Annual DPS | $5.200 | $5.850 | $6.290 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-1.2% (2023→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 165.0M | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 163.5M | -0.9% | — | — |
| 2025 | 163.1M | -0.2% | — | — |
CMDY is an ETF - no buybacks. Shares stable at ~163M. Distribution focus, not capital return.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$103
🔴 Bear
$133
📊 Base
$173
🚀 Bull
$59.26
Current Price
$62
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 8.00% | $103 | ▲74.6% |
| 📊 Base | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 8.00% | $133 | ▲124.5% |
| 🚀 Bull | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 8.00% | $173 | ▲191.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $6.416 | $5.941 | $5.94 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $6.544 | $5.611 | $11.55 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $6.675 | $5.299 | $16.85 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $6.808 | $5.004 | $21.85 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $6.945 | $4.726 | $26.58 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $7.014 | $4.420 | $31.00 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $7.084 | $4.134 | $35.13 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $7.155 | $3.866 | $39.00 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.227 | $3.615 | $42.62 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.299 | $3.381 | $46.00 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$124.08 | PV(TV)=$57.47 (56% of IV) | $103.47 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $46.00 + PV(TV) $57.47 | $103.47 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $124.08. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $57.47). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($46.00) + PV of terminal value ($57.47) = $103.47 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $6.605 | $6.115 | $6.12 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $6.935 | $5.945 | $12.06 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $7.281 | $5.780 | $17.84 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $7.646 | $5.620 | $23.46 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $8.028 | $5.464 | $28.92 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.269 | $5.211 | $34.13 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.517 | $4.969 | $39.10 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.772 | $4.739 | $43.84 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $9.035 | $4.520 | $48.36 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $9.306 | $4.311 | $52.67 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$173.44 | PV(TV)=$80.34 (60% of IV) | $133.01 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $52.67 + PV(TV) $80.34 | $133.01 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $173.44. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $80.34). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($52.67) + PV of terminal value ($80.34) = $133.01 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $6.793 | $6.290 | $6.29 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $7.337 | $6.290 | $12.58 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $7.924 | $6.290 | $18.87 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $8.557 | $6.290 | $25.16 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $9.242 | $6.290 | $31.45 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $9.704 | $6.115 | $37.57 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $10.189 | $5.945 | $43.51 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.699 | $5.780 | $49.29 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $11.234 | $5.620 | $54.91 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $11.795 | $5.464 | $60.37 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$242.99 | PV(TV)=$112.55 (65% of IV) | $172.92 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $60.37 + PV(TV) $112.55 | $172.92 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $242.99. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $112.55). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($60.37) + PV of terminal value ($112.55) = $172.92 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $175 | $191 | $210 | $237 | $273 |
| 6.5% | $157 | $169 | $184 | $203 | $228 |
| 7.0% | $143 | $152 | $163 | $177 | $195 |
| 7.5% | $130 | $138 | $147 | $157 | $171 |
| 8.0% | $120 | $126 | $133 | $141 | $152 |
| 8.5% | $111 | $116 | $122 | $129 | $137 |
| 9.0% | $103 | $108 | $112 | $118 | $124 |
| 9.5% | $97 | $100 | $104 | $109 | $114 |
| 10.0% | $91 | $94 | $97 | $101 | $105 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| ETF | Ticker | Yield | AUM ($M) | Assets | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMDY | CMDY | 10.69% | 966 | Commodities | High yield commodity ETF |
| USCI | USCI | 11.20% | 450 | Commodities | Broader commodity exposure |
| DBC | DBC | 5.30% | 2800 | Commodities | Diversified commodity |
| PDBC | PDBC | 4.80% | 3200 | Commodities | Optimum yield commodity |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $6.290 |
| Current Yield | 10.69% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 3 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +7.5% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +6.9% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.2% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +4.5% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 0.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Watch — High yield from commodity futures, potential return of capital |
CMDY has a high distribution yield of 10.69%, which is attractive for income investors. However, this yield comes from commodity futures rolling gains rather than earnings. Sustainability depends on continued commodity market volatility and the ETF's distribution policy. Rating: WATCH, not SAFE. Significant commodity market shifts could impact distribution sustainability.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case: Commodity bull market, distribution growth, high yield sustainable.
Bear Case: Commodity weakness, distribution cuts, return of capital concerns.
Base Case: Moderate commodity outlook, yield 10-12%, AUM stable.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY)
See the company profile for iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensat
See the company profile for iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensat
iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF | CMDY
The iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of a broad range of commodity exposures with enhanced roll selection, on a total return basis.
The iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of a broad range of commodity exposures with enhanced roll selection, on a total return basis.
iShares Blmbrg Roll Sel Cmdty Strart ETF (CMDY)
In seeking to achieve its investment ... There are 3 members of the management team with an average tenure of 3.94 years: Orlando Montalvo (2023), Erin Armstrong (2025) and Richard Mejzak (2018)....
In seeking to achieve its investment ... There are 3 members of the management team with an average tenure of 3.94 years: Orlando Montalvo (2023), Erin Armstrong (2025) and Richard Mejzak (2018)....
Capital Allocation & Strategy
iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF | CMDY
The iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of a broad range of commodity exposures with enhanced roll selection, on a total return basis.
The iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of a broad range of commodity exposures with enhanced roll selection, on a total return basis.
CMDY iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF
2023 · 2024 · 2025 · NAV · 26.97 · 14.23 · -9.09 · 5.35 · 16.11 · Market Price · 26.46 · 14.48 · -9.29 · 5.44 · 15.97 · ANNUALIZED PERFORMANCE (%) 1y · 3y · 5y · 10y · Since · Inception · NAV · 16.11 · 3.61 · 10.03 · - 5.59 · Market Price ·
2023 · 2024 · 2025 · NAV · 26.97 · 14.23 · -9.09 · 5.35 · 16.11 · Market Price · 26.46 · 14.48 · -9.29 · 5.44 · 15.97 · ANNUALIZED PERFORMANCE (%) 1y · 3y · 5y · 10y · Since · Inception · NAV · 16.11 · 3.61 · 10.03 · - 5.59 · Market Price ·
Employee Ratings
Culture Signal
Mixed
Employee Review Excerpts
iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF | CMDY
The iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of a broad range of commodity exposures with enhanced roll selection, on a total return basis.
The iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of a broad range of commodity exposures with enhanced roll selection, on a total return basis.
iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY)
In seeking to achieve its investment objective, the fund will primarily invest in exchange-traded futures contracts on the underlying index, and the adviser is expected to roll out of existing positions in index futures and establish new po
In seeking to achieve its investment objective, the fund will primarily invest in exchange-traded futures contracts on the underlying index, and the adviser is expected to roll out of existing positions in index futures and establish new po
CMDY Quote - iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strateg
Performance charts for iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY - Type ETF) including intraday, historical and comparison charts, technical analysis and trend lines.
Performance charts for iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY - Type ETF) including intraday, historical and comparison charts, technical analysis and trend lines.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Strong Buy — iShares Bloomberg Roll Select Commodity Strategy ETF (CMDY)
Current price: $59.26 | Analyst Avg PT: $62.00
$103
🔴 Bear
$133
📊 Base
$173
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$122 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$118 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$98 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$153 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
At current price ~$59.26, CMDY offers a high distribution yield of 10.69%. The ETF provides exposure to commodities through futures contracts with monthly rolling.
Verdict: ACCUMULATE - The high yield is attractive, though sustainability depends on commodity market conditions. The distribution appears sustainable at current levels.
Entry Strategy:
- Accumulate: Below $55 (yield >11%, attractive risk/reward)
- Add: $55-60 (yield 10-11%, moderate risk/reward)
- Reduce: Above $68 (yield <10%, less attractive)
Key Watch Items:
- Commodity price trends (oil, metals, agriculture)
- Distribution sustainability (return of capital vs. genuine yield)
- AUM changes (investor demand)
- Futures roll gains (key distribution source)
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 16.7 |
| Average Cost Basis | $59.34 |
| Current Market Value | $990 |
| Unrealized P&L | $-1 (-0.1%) |
| Annual DPS | $6.290/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $105/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 10.61% |
| Yield on Cost | 10.60% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $990 / $200,000 (0%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Choice — DDM for ETF | CMDY is an ETF, not a traditional company. Standard DCF/DDM models are designed for operating companies with earnings. However, DDM can be adapted for yield-focused ETFs: • Dividend/Distribution: $6.29 annual distribution (10.69% yield) • Ke: 8% (higher than standard due to commodity volatility) • Growth: 5% (moderate distribution growth based on commodity outlook) Caveats: The high yield comes from commodity futures rolling gains, not earnings. Sustainability depends on commodity market conditions. This is not a standard DDM - it's adapted for ETF distribution analysis. |
| Distribution Source | CMDY distribution primarily comes from: • Futures rolling gains (when futures curve is in backwardation) • Interest income on collateral • Commodity price appreciation (partial) The 10.69% yield includes a return of capital component. Sustainability depends on continued commodity market volatility. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.