CLS
CLS
Celestica is a Toronto-based global leader in data center infrastructure and advanced technology solutions, operating through two segments. The company has undergone a dramatic transformation from a legacy electronics manufacturing services (EMS) provider into a high-growth AI/data center infrastructure platform, with its Connectivity & Cloud Solutions (CCS) segment now driving the vast majority of growth. Celestica is a strategic manufacturing partner for hyperscalers including Google (TPU systems), and has been awarded 1.6T switching platform programs with multiple hyperscaler customers. The company was incorporated in 1994 as an IBM spinoff.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity & Cloud Solutions (CCS) | $8,600M | 69% | +40.0% | — | AI compute, 800G/1.6T networking, servers/storage for hyperscalers; segment margin 8.2% |
| Advanced Technology Solutions (ATS) | $3,800M | 31% | +3.0% | — | Aerospace & Defense, Industrial, HealthTech, Capital Equipment; segment margin 5.3% |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +28.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
Startup
Hyper Growth
Self Funding
Operating Leverage
Capital Return
Decline
Stage 4 — Growth: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 35.8% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 3.7% | <5% weak |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.7x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Expanding | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $5,635 | $7,250 | $7,961 | $9,646 | $12,391 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +28.7% | +9.8% | +21.2% | +28.5% |
| Gross Margin | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $294 | $405 | $469 | $751 | $1,216 |
| EBITDA Margin | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 9.8% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $168 | $289 | $338 | $599 | $1,041 |
| Operating Margin | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 8.4% |
| Net Income ($M) | $104 | $180 | $244 | $428 | $833 |
| Net Margin | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 6.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.82 | $1.46 | $2.03 | $3.61 | $7.16 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $175 | $102 | $201 | $303 | $458 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $794 | $786 | $675 | $797 | $777 |
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 12.00% | $88 | ▼78.4% |
| 📊 Base | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 10.50% | $343 | ▼16.4% |
| 🚀 Bull | 12.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 9.50% | $664 | ▲62.0% |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.40B | $0.36B | $0.36B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.60B | $0.48B | $0.84B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.85B | $0.61B | $1.44B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.05B | $0.67B | $2.11B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.25B | $0.71B | $2.82B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.29B | $0.65B | $3.47B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.33B | $0.60B | $4.07B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.37B | $0.55B | $4.62B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.41B | $0.51B | $5.13B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.45B | $0.47B | $5.59B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$14.8B | PV(TV)=$4.8B (46% of EV) | EV=$10.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $10.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $88 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.50B | $0.45B | $0.45B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.20B | $0.98B | $1.44B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.00B | $1.48B | $2.92B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.80B | $1.88B | $4.80B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.60B | $2.19B | $6.98B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.78B | $2.08B | $9.06B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.97B | $1.97B | $11.03B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.17B | $1.87B | $12.91B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.38B | $1.78B | $14.69B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.59B | $1.69B | $16.38B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$63.1B | PV(TV)=$23.2B (59% of EV) | EV=$39.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $39.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $343 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.60B | $0.55B | $0.55B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.60B | $1.33B | $1.88B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.00B | $2.28B | $4.17B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.20B | $2.92B | $7.09B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.20B | $3.30B | $10.39B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $5.56B | $3.23B | $13.62B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.95B | $3.15B | $16.77B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.37B | $3.08B | $19.86B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $6.82B | $3.01B | $22.87B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.29B | $2.94B | $25.81B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$125.8B | PV(TV)=$50.8B (66% of EV) | EV=$76.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $76.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $664 |
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $91 | $96 | $101 | $107 | $114 |
| 9.0% | $85 | $88 | $92 | $97 | $103 |
| 9.5% | $79 | $82 | $85 | $89 | $94 |
| 10.0% | $74 | $76 | $79 | $83 | $86 |
| 10.5% | $69 | $71 | $74 | $77 | $80 |
| 11.0% | $65 | $67 | $69 | $72 | $74 |
| 11.5% | $62 | $63 | $65 | $67 | $69 |
| 12.0% | $58 | $60 | $61 | $63 | $65 |
| 12.5% | $55 | $57 | $58 | $59 | $61 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jabil | JBL | 14.8x | 9.2x | 18.1x | 1.8% | Legacy EMS; slower growth |
| Flex Ltd. | FLEX | 15.3x | 10.1x | 22.5x | 1.5% | Diversified EMS; some AI exposure |
| Sanmina | SANM | 13.9x | 8.5x | 15.2x | 0% | Smaller EMS; no AI play |
| Fabrinet | FN | 22.7x | 16.3x | 28.4x | 0% | Optical components; AI-adjacent |
| Amphenol | APH | 35.2x | 23.8x | 42.1x | 0.7% | Premium connector/co. with AI exposure |
| Celestica (5yr avg) | CLS | 22-30x | 14-22x | 40-80x | 0% | Historical range pre-AI pivot |
| Celestica (current) | CLS | 57.1x | 36.6x | 98.6x | 0% | Post-AI re-rating |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $0.000 |
| Current Yield | 0.00% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 0 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +0.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +0.0% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +0.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 0.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | N/A — CLS does not pay a dividend. All capital returned via buybacks. |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.82 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.46 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.03 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.61 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $7.16 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $8.18 | $9.00 | $10.12 | 17 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $11.85 | $12.97 | $16.91 | 16 | Estimate |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $5.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $7.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $8.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $9.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $12.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $16.7B | $17.6B | $19.3B | 17 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $22.5B | $24.6B | $28.5B | 16 | Estimate |
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thanos Moschopoulos | BMO Capital | Buy | $450 | +9.7% |
| Michael Ng | Goldman Sachs | Strong Buy | $440 | +7.3% |
| Ruplu Bhattacharya | B of A Securities | Strong Buy | $430 | +4.8% |
| Samik Chatterjee | JP Morgan | Buy | $410 | -0.1% |
| Paul Treiber | RBC Capital | Buy | $400 | -2.5% |
| George Wang | Barclays | Buy | $391 | -4.7% |
| Ruben Roy | Stifel | Strong Buy | $385 | -6.1% |
| Todd Coupland | CIBC | Buy | $360 | -12.2% |
| David Vogt | UBS | Hold | $350 | -14.7% |
| John Shao | TD Cowen | Hold | $350 | -14.7% |
| Atif Malik | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $338 | -17.6% |
| Daniel Chan | TD Securities | Hold | $305 | -25.6% |
- Bull Case: CLS is the purest public-market play on AI data center infrastructure buildout. The CCS segment is growing 40%+ YoY, driven by 800G/1.6T networking switches and AI compute platforms for hyperscalers (Google TPU, plus 2+ other hyperscaler wins). The company has been awarded a third 1.6T program ramping in 2027. Operating leverage is inflecting — segment margins expanding from 6.8% to 8.4% in CCS. With $1B capex in 2026 fully funded from operations, CLS is investing ahead of a multi-year demand curve. FCF is poised to surge from $500M to $3B+ as capex normalizes. The $120 low-end analyst PT is stale (pre-AI pivot). At ~56x trailing EPS, the stock looks expensive, but forward EPS of $9.00 implies 45x — and $12.97 in 2027 implies 31x — a reasonable premium for 40%+ revenue growth.
- Bear Case: CLS is fundamentally an EMS company with 12% gross margins. AI data center capex could slow if hyperscalers hit utilization constraints or if AI monetization disappoints. Customer concentration is extreme — 3 customers represent 58% of revenue. If any hyperscaler pulls back or insources manufacturing, revenue could collapse. The $1B capex commitment creates operational risk if demand softens. At $408, the stock is already above analyst consensus PT ($355) — the market is pricing in perfection. Beta of 1.35 means a 30%+ drawdown in a risk-off environment is plausible (52-week low: $112). The low FCF margin (3.7%) means the business is capital-intensive despite the growth narrative.
- Key Base Assumptions: CCS segment sustains 30%+ growth through 2027, driven by 800G/1.6T networking and AI compute. 2026 guidance ($17B rev, $8.75 EPS) is delivered. FCF surges from $500M in 2026 to $3.6B by 2030 as capex normalizes and operating leverage expands. ATS remains stable at 3-5% growth. Margins continue expanding. The company does NOT initiate a dividend — all capital returned via buybacks.
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Comp reference: $10m
Todd previously served as Celestica’s Chief Operations Officer. With more than 25 years in Operations leadership and advisory roles, he has extensive experience developing and implementing operational strategies to drive la
He sits on the Audit Committee, Human Resources and Compensation Committee, and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee. ... Mr. Ahuja has more than 20 years of experience in networking and telecommunications. Since 2
Celestica's CEO is Rob Mionis, appointed in Aug 2015, has a tenure of 10.58 years. total yearly compensation is $14.99M, comprised of 7.4% salary and 92.6% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly owns 0.
We recorded a total of $31.5 million in favorable TRS FVAs related to our TRS Agreement in Q1 2024 compared to · $0.2 million of unfavorable TRS FVAs in Q1 2023 due to increases in our share price. ... We recorded the follo
The securities in the table for 2024 represent all Common Shares beneficially owned and all unvested RSUs held as of December 31, 2024, as well as performance share units (“PSUs”) with a performance period end date of December 31, 2023 that
- work-life balance
Employees also rated Celestica 3.4 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.3 for culture and values and 3.4 for career opportunities.
359 reviews from Celestica employees about Celestica culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Employees also rated Celestica 3.4 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.3 for culture and values and 3.4 for career opportunities.
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$320 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$280 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$240 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$500 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
CLS is a Hold at current levels. The stock has rallied 363% in the past year and now trades above analyst consensus PT ($355). While the AI infrastructure thesis is real and CLS is executing exceptionally, the current price of ~$410 discounts significant further upside that depends on hyperscaler capex sustaining at current elevated levels for multiple years. Our Base IV of ~$358 implies -13% downside from current price. The stock becomes interesting on a pullback below $320, where it would trade at ~35x forward EPS with a clear path to $355+. Becomes a Sell if CLS falls below $200 on thesis impairment (hyperscaler capex cuts, customer loss, margin collapse).
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 75 |
| Average Cost Basis | $132.65 |
| Current Market Value | $30,766 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+20,817 (+209.2%) |
| Annual DPS | — (not provided) |
| Annual Dividend Income | — (DPS missing) |
| Current Yield (at price) | — |
| Yield on Cost | — |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $30,766 / $200,000 (15%) |
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base & Trajectory | Used $500M FCF base (2026 mgmt guidance) despite $1B capex. As capex normalizes to maintenance levels (~$400-500M) and revenue scales to $25B+, FCF is projected to surge to $3.6B by year 5. This reflects the massive operating leverage in a business where FCF margin was only 3.7% in FY2025 but is expected to expand to 8-10% as the mix shifts toward higher-margin HPS/networking platforms. |
| WACC Calibration | Used beta 1.10 (forward-adjusted) vs raw 5Y beta of 1.35. Rationale: the 5Y beta captures a period when CLS was still perceived as a low-margin EMS business. The forward beta should decline as the business mix shifts toward higher-margin AI infrastructure and analyst coverage expands. Ke = 4.5% + 1.10 × 5.5% = 10.55%. WACC ≈ 10.5% (nearly all equity — debt is <2% of total capital). |
| Sanity Check | Base IV of ~$358 vs analyst consensus PT $354.93 (+0.9%) — within ±20% threshold. The stock trades at $410, which is above both our Base IV and consensus PT, indicating the market is pricing in above-consensus outcomes. Base IV is -12.7% below current price, within the 30% divergence threshold. |
| Terminal Growth | Base gT = 3.0% — justified by secular AI infrastructure tailwind, multi-year hyperscaler capex commitments, and CLS's expanding role in 1.6T networking. Bear gT = 2.0% assumes AI capex cycle normalizes. Bull gT = 3.5% assumes AI infrastructure becomes a permanent structural growth driver. |
| Customer Concentration Risk | 3 customers represent 58% of revenue (FY2025: 32%, 14%, 12%). This is the single biggest risk — loss of a major hyperscaler customer would be thesis-breaking. Partially offset by CLS winning programs with 3+ hyperscalers for 1.6T, but concentration is extreme. |
| Capex Investment Cycle | CLS is investing $1B in capex in 2026 (up from $201M in FY2025) to build capacity for multi-year demand. This is a strategic choice that depresses near-term FCF but positions the company for sustained growth. The DCF model accounts for this by using forward FCF estimates that reflect post-investment cash flow normalization. |