ET
ET
Buy 2026-03-05
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$18.76
Base IV
$21.70
Bear IV
$19.01
Bull IV
$25.89
Entry Zone: 17-19 · Sell Above: 26
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Energy Transfer LP (ET) • March 5, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 9.00% • Current Price: $18.76
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Energy Transfer LP is one of the largest midstream energy companies in North America, operating ~125,000 miles of pipeline infrastructure spanning natural gas, NGLs, crude oil, and refined products. ~90% of EBITDA is fee-based. Founded by Kelcy Warren and grown aggressively through acquisitions. Growing LNG export footprint positions ET well for the US LNG capacity boom (expected to double by 2030). Distribution was cut 50% during COVID-19 but has been restored and growing since 2022.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $37,504 | $40,523 | $54,087 | $54,213 | $38,954 | $67,417 | $89,876 | $78,586 | $82,671 | $85,536 |
| EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,499 | $2,713 | $5,348 | $7,277 | $2,980 | $8,792 | $7,738 | $8,295 | $9,138 | $9,027 |
| Net Income ($M) | $995 | $954 | $1,694 | $3,592 | $-648 | $5,470 | $4,756 | $3,935 | $4,814 | $4,433 |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Annual DPS | — | — | — | $1.220 | $0.610 | $0.610 | $0.870 | $1.250 | $1.290 | $1.375 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +8.0% | +33.5% | +0.2% | -28.1% | +73.1% | +33.3% | -12.6% | +5.2% | +3.5% |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$19
🔴 Bear
$22
📊 Base
$26
🚀 Bull
$18.76
Current Price
$21
Analyst Avg PT
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.403 | $1.287 | $1.29 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.431 | $1.204 | $2.49 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.459 | $1.127 | $3.62 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.488 | $1.054 | $4.67 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.518 | $0.987 | $5.66 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.541 | $0.919 | $6.58 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.564 | $0.856 | $7.43 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.587 | $0.797 | $8.23 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.611 | $0.742 | $8.97 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.635 | $0.691 | $9.66 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$22.13 | PV(TV)=$9.35 (49% of IV) |
Base Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.423 | $1.306 | $1.31 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.473 | $1.240 | $2.55 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.524 | $1.177 | $3.72 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.578 | $1.118 | $4.84 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.633 | $1.061 | $5.90 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.674 | $0.998 | $6.90 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.716 | $0.939 | $7.84 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.759 | $0.883 | $8.72 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.803 | $0.830 | $9.55 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.848 | $0.780 | $10.33 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$26.92 | PV(TV)=$11.37 (52% of IV) |
Bull Scenario
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.451 | $1.331 | $1.33 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.530 | $1.288 | $2.62 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.615 | $1.247 | $3.87 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.703 | $1.207 | $5.07 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.797 | $1.168 | $6.24 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.869 | $1.114 | $7.35 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.944 | $1.063 | $8.42 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.021 | $1.015 | $9.43 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.102 | $0.968 | $10.40 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.186 | $0.924 | $11.32 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$34.48 | PV(TV)=$14.56 (56% of IV) |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $29 | $31 | $33 | $36 | $39 |
| 7.5% | $26 | $28 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| 8.0% | $24 | $25 | $27 | $28 | $31 |
| 8.5% | $22 | $23 | $25 | $26 | $27 |
| 9.0% | $21 | $22 | $23 | $24 | $25 |
| 9.5% | $20 | $20 | $21 | $22 | $23 |
| 10.0% | $18 | $19 | $20 | $20 | $21 |
| 10.5% | $17 | $18 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
| 11.0% | $16 | $17 | $17 | $18 | $18 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | Yield | EV/EBITDA | Dist. Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Transfer | ET | 7.3% | ~9x | ~1.8x |
| Enterprise Products | EPD | 5.8% | ~11x | ~1.7x |
| Kinder Morgan | KMI | 4.8% | ~10x | ~2.0x |
| Williams Cos. | WMB | 3.8% | ~11x | ~2.3x |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.375 |
| Current Yield | 7.32% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 3 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +5.8% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +3.2% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +3.2% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 114.0% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 55.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Verdict: Safe. GAAP payout >100% is meaningless for MLPs — use DCF coverage ~1.8x. Distribution growing steadily post-COVID.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $1.40 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.09 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $1.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $1.21 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.32 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $1.45 | $1.60 | $1.75 | 10 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.58 | $1.73 | $1.88 | 10 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $67.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $89.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $78.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $82.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $85.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $94.0B | $97.8B | $101.0B | 10 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $98.5B | $102.4B | $106.5B | 10 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $21.30 | Range $17–$23
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theresa Chen | Barclays | Buy | $22 | +17.3% |
| Jeremy Tonet | JP Morgan | Buy | $21 | +11.9% |
| Brandon Bingham | Scotiabank | Buy | $21 | +11.9% |
| Robert Kad | Morgan Stanley | Hold | $19 | +1.3% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.36 vs $0.34 | +$0.02 ✅ | $22.1B vs $21.6B | +$0.5B ✅ | Raised distribution |
| Q3 2025 | $0.34 vs $0.33 | +$0.01 ✅ | $21.7B vs $21.2B | +$0.5B ✅ | Raised distribution |
| Q2 2025 | $0.31 vs $0.30 | +$0.01 ✅ | $20.9B vs $20.5B | +$0.4B ✅ | In-line |
| Q1 2025 | $0.33 vs $0.32 | +$0.01 ✅ | $21.3B vs $21.0B | +$0.3B ✅ | In-line |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
10 analysts; consistent beats. MLP economics best tracked via distributable cash flow, not GAAP EPS.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull: 7.3% yield + 3-5%/yr distribution growth = 10%+ total return. LNG tailwind. 9x EV/EBITDA discount to EPD.
Bear: Kelcy Warren governance risk. $60B total debt. Distribution was cut 50% in 2020 — trust takes time to rebuild.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Buy — Energy Transfer LP (ET)
Current price: $18.76 | Analyst Avg PT: $21.30
$19
🔴 Bear
$22
📊 Base
$26
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$19 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$18 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$17 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$26 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Buy at $18.76. 7.3% yield; base DDM $21.70 vs analyst consensus $21.30. Starter $19; add at $17-18.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.