NVDA
NVDA
Hold 2026-03-13
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$180.25
Base IV
$240.09
Bear IV
$63.99
Bull IV
$494.60
Entry Zone: 67-221 · Sell Above: 420
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) • March 13, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 11.50% • Current Price: $180.25
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
NVIDIA Corporation designs and manufactures graphics processing units (GPUs), system-on-chip units, and AI accelerators that power data centers, gaming, professional visualization, and autonomous vehicles. The company has achieved a near-monopoly in AI training infrastructure, with its H100 and Blackwell GPU families becoming the critical compute fabric for hyperscalers and AI labs globally.
NVIDIA's CUDA software ecosystem creates massive switching costs, with millions of developers writing GPU-accelerated code exclusively optimized for NVIDIA hardware. FY2026 revenues grew 65% to $215.9B as data center demand for AI compute remained insatiable; the Data Center segment alone contributed ~88% of total revenue.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Center | $115,200M | 88% | +93.0% | — | H100/H200/Blackwell AI GPUs + NVLink |
| Gaming | $11,400M | 9% | +9.0% | — | GeForce RTX consumer GPUs |
| Professional Viz | $1,500M | 1% | +15.0% | — | Quadro/RTX workstation graphics |
| Automotive | $1,100M | 1% | +55.0% | — | DRIVE platform for autonomous vehicles |
| OEM & Other | $740M | 1% | +5.0% | — | Legacy OEM GPU products |
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $26,914 | $26,974 | $60,922 | $130,497 | $215,938 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $11,215 | $5,768 | $34,480 | $83,317 | $133,230 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $10,041 | $4,224 | $32,972 | $81,453 | $130,387 |
| Net Income ($M) | $9,752 | $4,368 | $29,760 | $72,880 | $120,067 |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.39 | $0.17 | $1.19 | $2.94 | $4.90 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $8,132 | $3,808 | $27,021 | $60,853 | $96,676 |
| Annual DPS | $0.016 | $0.016 | $0.016 | $0.034 | $0.040 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $11,687 | $11,855 | $10,828 | $9,982 | $11,040 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +0.2% | +125.9% | +114.2% | +65.5% |
| EBITDA Margin | 41.7% | 21.4% | 56.6% | 63.8% | 61.7% |
| Operating Margin | 37.3% | 15.7% | 54.1% | 62.4% | 60.4% |
| Net Margin | 36.2% | 16.2% | 48.8% | 55.8% | 55.6% |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$64
🔴 Bear
$240
📊 Base
$495
🚀 Bull
$180.25
Current Price
$263
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.0% | 11.50% | $64 | ▼64.5% |
| 📊 Base | 50.0% | 20.0% | 3.0% | 11.50% | $240 | ▲33.2% |
| 🚀 Bull | 65.0% | 30.0% | 3.5% | 11.50% | $495 | ▲174.4% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 30.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $103.00B | $92.38B | $92.38B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $120.00B | $96.52B | $188.90B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $124.00B | $89.45B | $278.35B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $125.00B | $80.87B | $359.23B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $126.00B | $73.11B | $432.34B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $138.60B | $72.13B | $504.47B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $152.46B | $71.16B | $575.63B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $167.71B | $70.20B | $645.83B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $184.48B | $69.26B | $715.09B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $202.92B | $68.33B | $783.42B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$2178.8B | PV(TV)=$733.6B (48% of EV) | EV=$1517.0B |
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 50.0% | Stage 2: 20.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $162.30B | $145.56B | $145.56B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $210.50B | $169.32B | $314.88B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $265.50B | $191.53B | $506.41B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $316.80B | $204.97B | $711.38B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $356.50B | $206.86B | $918.24B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $427.80B | $222.63B | $1140.88B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $513.36B | $239.61B | $1380.48B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $616.03B | $257.87B | $1638.35B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $739.24B | $277.53B | $1915.88B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $887.09B | $298.69B | $2214.57B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$10749.4B | PV(TV)=$3619.4B (62% of EV) | EV=$5834.0B |
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 65.0% | Stage 2: 30.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $201.50B | $180.72B | $180.72B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $277.80B | $223.45B | $404.17B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $371.30B | $267.86B | $672.02B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $455.40B | $294.64B | $966.67B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $517.50B | $300.29B | $1266.95B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $672.75B | $350.11B | $1617.06B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $874.58B | $408.20B | $2025.26B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1136.95B | $475.93B | $2501.19B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1478.03B | $554.89B | $3056.08B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1921.44B | $646.96B | $3703.05B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$24858.6B | PV(TV)=$8370.1B (69% of EV) | EV=$12073.1B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $461 | $484 | $509 | $539 | $573 |
| 10.0% | $426 | $445 | $466 | $491 | $519 |
| 10.5% | $394 | $410 | $428 | $449 | $473 |
| 11.0% | $366 | $380 | $395 | $413 | $433 |
| 11.5% | $341 | $353 | $366 | $381 | $398 |
| 12.0% | $319 | $329 | $341 | $353 | $368 |
| 12.5% | $299 | $308 | $318 | $329 | $341 |
| 13.0% | $280 | $288 | $297 | $307 | $317 |
| 13.5% | $264 | $271 | $278 | $287 | $296 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | P/E (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA (current) | 37x | 27x | 46x | 0.02% | AI GPU monopoly; premium justified |
| NVDA (FY2024 avg) | 55x | 35x | 55x | — | Historical avg at AI ramp peak |
| NVDA (FY2025 avg) | 40x | 28x | 40x | — | Moderation as growth accelerated |
| AMD | 28x | 18x | 35x | — | GPU challenger; ~10-15% AI market share |
| AVGO (Broadcom) | 32x | 22x | 28x | 1.2% | ASIC/custom silicon for hyperscalers |
| QCOM | 16x | 12x | 14x | 2.3% | Mobile/edge AI; less data center exposure |
| INTC | N/M | 22x | N/M | 1.5% | Turnaround story; losing AI market share |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $0.040 |
| Current Yield | 0.02% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 5 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +18.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +50.0% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +20.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 0.8% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 0.1% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Token dividend; <0.05% yield. NVDA returns capital primarily via buybacks ($40B+/yr). Dividend is a symbolic gesture — no income thesis applies here.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $1.19 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.94 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.90 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $6.76 | $8.30 | $10.16 | 69 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $8.07 | $11.01 | $14.57 | 62 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $60.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $130.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $215.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $244.2B | $360.7B | $428.7B | 69 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $284.9B | $467.7B | $591.1B | 62 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $263.29 | Range $100–$360
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Feinseth | Tigress Financial | Strong Buy | $360 | +99.7% |
| Brett Knoblauch | Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | $300 | +66.4% |
| C.J. Muse | Cantor Fitzgerald | Buy | $300 | +66.4% |
| Atif Malik | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $300 | +66.4% |
| Matt Bryson | Wedbush | Buy | $300 | +66.4% |
| Harlan Sur | JP Morgan | Buy | $265 | +47.0% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 FY2026 | $4.93 vs $4.42 | +$0.51 ✅ | $393.7B vs $371.6B | +$22.1B ✅ | Raised |
| Q3 FY2026 | $4.02 vs $3.69 | +$0.33 ✅ | $351.3B vs $327.5B | +$23.8B ✅ | Raised |
| Q2 FY2026 | $3.46 vs $3.11 | +$0.35 ✅ | $300.4B vs $285.0B | +$15.4B ✅ | Raised |
| Q1 FY2026 | $2.94 vs $2.66 | +$0.28 ✅ | $261.0B vs $243.7B | +$17.3B ✅ | Raised |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Analyst range is extremely wide ($100–$360) reflecting deep disagreement on AI compute durability. The $100 bear is a China-decoupling/DeepSeek scenario; the $360 bull assumes continued Blackwell supercycle. NVDA has beaten EPS estimates by 9–12% for 4 consecutive quarters — street has struggled to model the demand magnitude. Forward estimates likely still too conservative.
💡 Investment Thesis
- AI Infrastructure Monopoly: NVIDIA controls ~80–90% of AI training GPU market share. Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are locked into CUDA ecosystems and have committed multi-year capex to NVIDIA platforms.
- Blackwell Demand Exceeds Supply: The next-generation Blackwell architecture (GB200 NVL72 racks at $3M+ each) is sold out through 2025–2026, with demand far outstripping TSMCs CoWoS packaging capacity.
- Software Moat (CUDA): 4M+ developers, 3,000+ GPU-optimized applications, and $10B+ annual software/services revenue (NIM microservices, DGX Cloud) create a platform business that compounds independently of hardware cycles.
- Sovereign AI Tailwind: Governments worldwide are building national AI infrastructure — a multi-hundred-billion dollar market that barely existed 24 months ago.
- FCF Machine: 44–47% FCF margins on $215B revenue; $96.7B FCF in FY2026; $40B+ in share buybacks. The balance sheet has $62.6B in cash vs $11B debt.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
Current price: $180.25 | Analyst Avg PT: $263.29
$64
🔴 Bear
$240
📊 Base
$495
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$221 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$152 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$67 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$420 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
NVDA is a Hold / Accumulate on Weakness at current prices ($180). The stock has corrected ~40% from its $330+ 2024 peak and now trades at 22x FY2027E earnings — a reasonable multiple for this franchise. The Base DCF of $240 (using analyst consensus FCF estimates for years 1–5) implies ~33% upside, which is more compelling than the prior growth-rate model suggested.
Joseph already holds 450 shares at a $43.66 cost basis — a massive 310%+ unrealized gain. Recommendation: Hold existing position; add below $165 (Bear IV zone). Trim above $330 (approaching Bull IV). The analyst consensus FCF build shows the stock is modestly undervalued at current prices vs Base case — but the Bear scenario at $108 is the real risk if AI capex moderates.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 450.28 |
| Average Cost Basis | $43.66 |
| Current Market Value | $81,163 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+61,504 (+312.8%) |
| Annual DPS | $0.040/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $18/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 0.02% |
| Yield on Cost | 0.09% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $81,163 / $200,000 (41%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | Used normalized $78.8B (avg FY2025 $60.9B + FY2026 $96.7B) vs reported FY2026 $96.7B. FY2026 FCF benefited from massive receivables build ($15.4B) which is a timing item. Conservative base prevents overestimating steady-state FCF. |
| WACC | Revised beta 1.35 (mega-cap franchise; original 1.65 was too punishing for a $4.4T near-monopoly platform with AAA-equivalent fundamentals). Rf=4.30% (10yr UST Mar 2026), ERP=5.5%. Ke = 4.30% + 1.35×5.5% = 11.73%. Kd=3.3% pretax after-tax 2.81%. We=99.76%. WACC=11.50%. This WACC is consistent with how market prices comparable mega-cap franchises (AAPL ~10–11%, MSFT ~10–11%; NVDA deserves slight premium for concentration risk). |
| FCF Estimates (Years 1–5) | Analyst consensus revenue estimates (StockAnalysis, 38–69 analysts) × FCF margin assumption by scenario. Base: $360.7B FY2027E × 45% = $162B; $467.7B FY2028E × 45% = $211B; yrs 3–5 derived from street CAGR × declining margin. Bear uses analyst low revenue ($244B/$285B) × 42% margin (margin compression risk). Bull uses analyst high revenue ($429B/$591B) × 47% margin (CUDA moat maintains pricing). Years 6–10 revert to g2 growth-rate extrapolation. |
| Growth Rates (Years 6–10) | Base: g2=20% (Stage 2; fading as market matures post-Blackwell cycle), gT=3.0%. Bear: g2=10% (commoditization, AMD/custom silicon gains share). Bull: g2=30% (sustained hyperscaler capex + sovereign AI infrastructure build). |
| Sanity Check | Base IV $240 vs analyst consensus PT $263.29 (-8.8%) — within ±20% threshold. The gap reflects analyst PTs often embedding a scarcity premium and optionality value that a DCF does not capture. Model output is directionally consistent with Street: current price ($180) is below Base IV ($240), suggesting modest undervaluation vs consensus expectations. |
| Key Risks | DeepSeek/inference efficiency reducing training compute demand; AMD MI300X gaining traction; China export control escalation; TSMC CoWoS capacity constraints limiting upside; customer capex cuts. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.