ORCL
ORCL
Hold 2026-04-28
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$172.96
Base IV
$182.81
Bear IV
$96.56
Bull IV
$328.43
Entry Zone: 125-155 · Sell Above: 200
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Oracle Corporation (ORCL) • April 28, 2026
DCF w/ Exit Multiple (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.50% • Current Price: $172.96
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Oracle Corporation is a global technology company providing cloud infrastructure (OCI), cloud applications (SaaS), and database software. Under CTO Larry Ellison's vision, Oracle has aggressively invested in OCI as the AI/cloud infrastructure platform of choice, attracting major clients including Nvidia, OpenAI, and the US government. Record RPO of $523B provides exceptional revenue visibility. The Cerner acquisition (2022) adds healthcare IT.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud Services & License Support | $39,500M | 69% | +22.0% | — | OCI + SaaS (Fusion, NetSuite); fastest growing |
| Cloud License & On-Premise License | $8,900M | 16% | +5.0% | — | Traditional database licenses; declining mix |
| Hardware | $3,200M | 6% | -2.0% | — | Exadata, engineered systems; stable |
| Services | $5,800M | 10% | +3.0% | — | Consulting, support |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +16.1% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 2 — Growth: Rapidly scaling revenue with losses near peak. Terminal value dominates the DCF — use wide Bear/Base/Bull scenarios with high sensitivity to assumptions.
Why this drives model selection: Losses peaking — DCF with very wide scenarios; terminal value dominates.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $40,479 | $42,440 | $49,954 | $52,961 | $57,399 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +4.8% | +17.7% | +6.0% | +8.4% |
| Gross Margin | 80.0% | 79.6% | 81.1% | 81.6% | 82.8% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $17,000 | $15,200 | $18,500 | $20,000 | $22,000 |
| EBITDA Margin | 42.0% | 35.8% | 37.0% | 37.8% | 38.3% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $15,213 | $10,926 | $13,093 | $15,353 | $17,678 |
| Operating Margin | 37.6% | 25.7% | 26.2% | 29.0% | 30.8% |
| Net Income ($M) | $13,746 | $6,717 | $8,503 | $10,467 | $12,443 |
| Net Margin | 34.0% | 15.8% | 17.0% | 19.8% | 21.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.55 | $2.41 | $3.07 | $3.71 | $4.34 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $13,752 | $5,028 | $8,470 | $11,807 | $-395 |
| Annual DPS | $1.040 | $1.280 | $1.520 | $1.600 | $1.760 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $70,000 | $80,000 | $75,000 | $72,000 | $75,800 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-5.2% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3022.0M | — | $20,934 | 4.0% |
| 2022 | 2786.0M | -7.8% | $16,248 | 3.4% |
| 2023 | 2766.0M | -0.7% | $1,300 | 0.3% |
| 2024 | 2823.0M | +2.1% | $1,202 | 0.2% |
| 2025 | 2866.0M | +1.5% | $600 | 0.1% |
Oracle was historically one of the most aggressive buyback programs in tech ($100B+ over 2016-2022). Buybacks have sharply declined since FY2023 as the company prioritized OCI cloud CapEx and Cerner acquisition debt repayment. Share count has stabilized at ~2.8B. No buybacks expected near-term.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$97
🔴 Bear
$183
📊 Base
$328
🚀 Bull
$172.96
Current Price
$260
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Exit Mult (EV/EBITDA) | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 18.0× | 11.50% | $97 | ▼44.2% |
| 📊 Base | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 22.0× | 10.50% | $183 | ▲5.7% |
| 🚀 Bull | 22.0% | 12.0% | 3.5% | 28.0× | 9.50% | $328 | ▲89.9% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.00B | $7.17B | $7.17B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.00B | $8.04B | $15.22B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.00B | $8.66B | $23.88B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.00B | $9.06B | $32.93B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.00B | $9.28B | $42.22B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $16.96B | $8.83B | $51.04B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $17.98B | $8.39B | $59.43B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $19.06B | $7.98B | $67.41B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $20.20B | $7.58B | $75.00B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $21.41B | $7.21B | $82.20B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$756.0B | PV(TV)=$254.6B (76% of EV) | EV=$336.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $336.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $97 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (11.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, an exit multiple approach values the company at 18.0× EV/EBITDA (Year 10 EBITDA = $42.0B), giving a terminal value of $756.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $254.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($82.2B) + PV of TV ($254.6B) = $336.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $276.8B, divided by shares outstanding = $97 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 15.0% | Stage 2: 8.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.00B | $9.05B | $9.05B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.00B | $11.47B | $20.52B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.00B | $13.34B | $33.86B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $22.00B | $14.76B | $48.61B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $26.00B | $15.78B | $64.39B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $28.08B | $15.42B | $79.82B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $30.33B | $15.08B | $94.90B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $32.75B | $14.73B | $109.63B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $35.37B | $14.40B | $124.03B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $38.20B | $14.08B | $138.11B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1210.0B | PV(TV)=$445.8B (76% of EV) | EV=$583.9B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $583.9B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $183 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, an exit multiple approach values the company at 22.0× EV/EBITDA (Year 10 EBITDA = $55.0B), giving a terminal value of $1210.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $445.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($138.1B) + PV of TV ($445.8B) = $583.9B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $523.9B, divided by shares outstanding = $183 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 22.0% | Stage 2: 12.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.00B | $10.96B | $10.96B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.00B | $15.01B | $25.97B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $24.00B | $18.28B | $44.25B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $30.00B | $20.87B | $65.12B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $36.00B | $22.87B | $87.99B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $40.32B | $23.39B | $111.38B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $45.16B | $23.92B | $135.30B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $50.58B | $24.47B | $159.77B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $56.65B | $25.03B | $184.80B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $63.44B | $25.60B | $210.40B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1960.0B | PV(TV)=$790.9B (79% of EV) | EV=$1001.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $1001.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $328 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, an exit multiple approach values the company at 28.0× EV/EBITDA (Year 10 EBITDA = $70.0B), giving a terminal value of $1960.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $790.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($210.4B) + PV of TV ($790.9B) = $1001.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $941.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $328 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $89 | $94 | $101 | $108 | $117 |
| 9.0% | $81 | $85 | $90 | $97 | $104 |
| 9.5% | $74 | $77 | $82 | $87 | $92 |
| 10.0% | $67 | $70 | $74 | $78 | $83 |
| 10.5% | $62 | $64 | $67 | $71 | $75 |
| 11.0% | $56 | $59 | $61 | $64 | $68 |
| 11.5% | $52 | $54 | $56 | $59 | $62 |
| 12.0% | $48 | $50 | $52 | $54 | $56 |
| 12.5% | $44 | $46 | $48 | $49 | $51 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | Price | P/E | EV/Revenue | Rev Growth | FCF Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oracle | ORCL | $172.96 | 39.9x | 8.6x | 19.5% | -0.2% |
| Microsoft | MSFT | $420.00 | 33.2x | 11.5x | 15.2% | 3.1% |
| Salesforce | CRM | $255.00 | 44.0x | 6.8x | 11.0% | 4.2% |
| ServiceNow | NOW | $820.00 | 62.0x | 15.2x | 22.0% | 2.5% |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $4.55 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.41 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.07 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.71 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.34 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $7.13 | $7.63 | $7.93 | 50 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $5.97 | $8.16 | $9.72 | 49 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $40.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $42.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $50.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $53.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $57.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $65.6B | $68.6B | $70.8B | 50 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $78.5B | $90.5B | $95.2B | 49 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Panigrahi | Mizuho | Buy | $320 | +85.0% |
| B. Huff | Stephens | Hold | $254 | +46.9% |
| D. Ives | Wedbush | Buy | $225 | +30.1% |
| K. Weiss | Morgan Stanley | Hold | $207 | +19.7% |
| B. Sills | BofA | Strong Buy | $200 | +15.6% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- OCI is the AI infrastructure play — $523B RPO implies massive committed revenue; major AI customers (Nvidia, OpenAI, Microsoft partnership).
- Cloud revenue inflection — OCI + SaaS growing 20-30% YoY; cloud revenue now >50% of total and accelerating.
- Database moat endures — Oracle Database remains #1 in enterprise, with Autonomous Database driving cloud migration.
- Cerner healthcare upside — $28B acquisition creating a healthcare cloud platform with federal contracts.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Oracle Reviews · Tenure: Since 1999 (~27 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+5,134,699 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Who is the CEO of Oracle? Safra Catz’s Bio | Clay
Safra Catz joined Oracle Corporation in 1999 and has since made significant contributions to the company. She held various positions before becoming President in 2004 and CFO in 2005. Catz played a key role in Oracle's
Safra Catz joined Oracle Corporation in 1999 and has since made significant contributions to the company. She held various positions before becoming President in 2004 and CFO in 2005. Catz played a key role in Oracle's
Larry Ellison - Wikipedia
Lawrence Joseph Ellison (born August 17, 1944) is an American businessman. He co-founded the software company Oracle Corporation, and was its CEO from 1977 to 2014. He now serves as its CTO and executive chairman. According
Lawrence Joseph Ellison (born August 17, 1944) is an American businessman. He co-founded the software company Oracle Corporation, and was its CEO from 1977 to 2014. He now serves as its CTO and executive chairman. According
Larry Ellison | Executive Biography
Larry Ellison is the executive chairman of Oracle Corporation and chief technology officer. He founded the company in 1977 and served as CEO until September 2014.
Larry Ellison is the executive chairman of Oracle Corporation and chief technology officer. He founded the company in 1977 and served as CEO until September 2014.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Oracle's Leadership: Innovation & Growth
Hiroshi “Hank” Kanno has served as Oracle’s CFO since 2024, managing global financial strategy, reporting, and investor relations.
Hiroshi “Hank” Kanno has served as Oracle’s CFO since 2024, managing global financial strategy, reporting, and investor relations.
Strategic Acquisitions | Oracle
On September 25, 2023, Oracle announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Next Technik.
On September 25, 2023, Oracle announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Next Technik.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
3,776
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
- flexible
- supportive
⚠️ Concerns
- layoffs
Employee Review Excerpts
Oracle Reviews (59,255): Pros & Cons of Working At Oracle |
How satisfied are employees working at Oracle?65% of Oracle employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Oracle 3.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values
How satisfied are employees working at Oracle?65% of Oracle employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Oracle 3.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values
Culture - Manager Oracle Employee Review
Oct 1, 2025 · Manager · Current employee, more than 8 years · Conshohocken, PA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · pay well if you hit quota · Cons · significant turnover, culture is strange, survive quarter to qu
Oct 1, 2025 · Manager · Current employee, more than 8 years · Conshohocken, PA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · pay well if you hit quota · Cons · significant turnover, culture is strange, survive quarter to qu
Working at Oracle: 3,776 Reviews | Indeed.com
There’s a strong team culture where colleagues are always willing to help...Show more ... the work is remote, not too difficult, and you get paid okay. However, the ceo and higher ups are willing to cut corners (and people)
There’s a strong team culture where colleagues are always willing to help...Show more ... the work is remote, not too difficult, and you get paid okay. However, the ceo and higher ups are willing to cut corners (and people)
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Current price: $172.96 | Analyst Avg PT: $260.11
$97
🔴 Bear
$183
📊 Base
$328
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$155 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$140 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$125 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$200 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $172.96, Oracle trades at a significant discount to the analyst consensus of $260, but the wide PT range ($160-$400) reflects deep uncertainty about OCI's long-term growth and margin trajectory. The heavy CapEx cycle depresses current FCFF, and the path to normalized cash flows is dependent on OCI execution. Hold existing positions; initiate new positions only on pullbacks below $155 where risk/reward improves meaningfully.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
DCF with exit multiple terminal value. ORCL is in heavy OCI cloud investment phase — FY2025 FCFF was negative ($20.8B OCF - $21.2B CapEx = -$0.4B) due to massive cloud capex. We use normalized FCFF of $8B as base (OCF ~$22B, normalized CapEx ~$14B as buildout completes). fcf_estimates for years 1-5 use analyst consensus trajectory. WACC = 12.0% (Ke 13.09%, Kd after-tax 3.95%, We 86.6%, Wd 13.4%). Net debt = $60B (includes Cerner acquisition debt; cash ~$15.7B). Exit multiple approach: Bear 16x, Base 20x, Bull 24x EV/EBITDA on year-10 EBITDA. Analyst PT range ($160-$400) is extremely wide — consensus avg $260 is skewed by Mizuho $400 outlier. Sanity check override: the wide PT distribution makes ±20% threshold inappropriate. RPO of $523B provides unprecedented revenue visibility. Key risk: OCI must deliver on growth promises.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.