PEP
PEP
PepsiCo is a global food and beverage giant founded in 1965 through the merger of Pepsi-Cola and Frito-Lay, though Pepsi-Cola's roots trace back to 1893. Today, PepsiCo operates one of the world's largest convenient food and beverage portfolios with 23 billion-dollar brands including Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Quaker, and Tropicana. The company generates approximately 60% of revenue from its snacks/convenient foods business (Frito-Lay) and 40% from beverages, a mix that provides superior margins compared to pure-play beverage competitors.
PepsiCo operates across seven reportable segments spanning North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa/Middle East/South Asia, and Asia Pacific. The company employs approximately 315,000 people and serves customers in more than 200 countries. FY2025 revenue was $93.9B with EBITDA of $15.7B (16.7% margin).
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | $25,071M | 27% | +2.0% | 29.5% | Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Tostitos — crown jewel with industry-leading margins |
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | $2,587M | 3% | -6.0% | 18.0% | Quaker Oats, Life cereal, Rice-A-Roni — mature, declining segment |
| PepsiCo Beverages NA (PBNA) | $27,330M | 29% | +1.0% | 11.0% | Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Aquafina — volume pressure |
| Latin America (LatAm) | $9,856M | 10% | +8.0% | 16.5% | Mexico, Brazil, Argentina — inflation-driven pricing |
| Europe | $14,523M | 15% | +3.0% | 12.5% | UK, Germany, France, Russia exit impact |
| Africa, Middle East, South Asia (AMESA) | $7,123M | 8% | +5.0% | 14.5% | Emerging markets — long-term growth driver |
| Asia Pacific (APAC) | $7,435M | 8% | +4.0% | 15.5% | China, India — competitive but growing |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +2.6% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
Startup
Hyper Growth
Self Funding
Operating Leverage
Capital Return
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 11.8% | 8–12% adequate |
| FCF Margin | 8.2% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 2.7x | 2–4x moderate |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $79,474 | $86,392 | $91,471 | $91,854 | $93,925 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +8.7% | +5.9% | +0.4% | +2.3% |
| Gross Margin | 53.3% | 53.0% | 54.2% | 54.6% | 54.1% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $14,377 | $14,792 | $15,504 | $16,702 | $15,676 |
| EBITDA Margin | 18.1% | 17.1% | 16.9% | 18.2% | 16.7% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $11,162 | $11,512 | $11,986 | $12,887 | $11,498 |
| Operating Margin | 14.0% | 13.3% | 13.1% | 14.0% | 12.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $7,618 | $8,910 | $9,074 | $9,578 | $8,240 |
| Net Margin | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 8.8% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.49 | $6.42 | $6.56 | $6.95 | $6.00 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $6,991 | $5,604 | $7,924 | $7,189 | $7,672 |
| Annual DPS | $4.247 | $4.525 | $4.945 | $5.330 | $5.622 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $39,800 | $38,700 | $35,200 | $38,900 | $42,100 |
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1383.0M | — | $100 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1377.0M | -0.4% | $200 | 0.1% |
| 2023 | 1374.0M | -0.2% | $1,000 | 0.5% |
| 2024 | 1372.0M | -0.1% | $800 | 0.4% |
| 2025 | 1367.0M | -0.4% | $500 | 0.2% |
PepsiCo prioritizes dividends over buybacks. Share count has declined only 1.2% over 5 years (from 1,383M to 1,367M shares). Annual buybacks of $500M-$1B are modest relative to the $7.7B dividend payout. The company allocates ~90% of FCF to dividends and uses the remainder for opportunistic buybacks and debt management. This is appropriate for a Stage 5 Capital Return company.
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 6.56% | $139 | ▼11.7% |
| 📊 Base | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 6.56% | $174 | ▲10.7% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 6.56% | $213 | ▲35.5% |
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $5.889 | $5.527 | $5.53 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $6.095 | $5.368 | $10.89 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $6.309 | $5.214 | $16.11 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $6.529 | $5.064 | $21.17 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $6.758 | $4.919 | $26.09 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.927 | $4.731 | $30.82 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $7.100 | $4.551 | $35.37 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $7.278 | $4.378 | $39.75 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.459 | $4.211 | $43.96 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.646 | $4.050 | $48.01 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$171.03 | PV(TV)=$90.60 (65% of IV) | $138.61 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $48.01 + PV(TV) $90.60 | $138.61 |
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $6.003 | $5.633 | $5.63 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $6.333 | $5.577 | $11.21 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $6.681 | $5.522 | $16.73 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $7.049 | $5.467 | $22.20 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $7.437 | $5.413 | $27.61 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $7.734 | $5.283 | $32.89 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.043 | $5.156 | $38.05 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.365 | $5.032 | $43.08 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $8.700 | $4.911 | $47.99 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $9.048 | $4.793 | $52.79 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$228.42 | PV(TV)=$121.00 (70% of IV) | $173.79 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $52.79 + PV(TV) $121.00 | $173.79 |
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $6.088 | $5.713 | $5.71 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $6.514 | $5.737 | $11.45 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $6.970 | $5.761 | $17.21 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $7.458 | $5.785 | $23.00 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $7.981 | $5.808 | $28.80 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $8.380 | $5.723 | $34.53 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.799 | $5.640 | $40.17 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $9.238 | $5.557 | $45.72 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $9.700 | $5.476 | $51.20 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.185 | $5.396 | $56.60 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$294.69 | PV(TV)=$156.11 (73% of IV) | $212.70 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $56.60 + PV(TV) $156.11 | $212.70 |
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6% | $247 | $285 | $340 | $430 | $601 |
| 5.1% | $212 | $238 | $274 | $327 | $413 |
| 5.6% | $185 | $204 | $229 | $263 | $314 |
| 6.1% | $164 | $179 | $197 | $220 | $253 |
| 6.6% | $148 | $159 | $172 | $189 | $212 |
| 7.1% | $134 | $143 | $153 | $166 | $182 |
| 7.6% | $123 | $129 | $138 | $148 | $160 |
| 8.1% | $113 | $118 | $125 | $133 | $142 |
| 8.6% | $104 | $109 | $114 | $121 | $128 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coca-Cola | KO | 27.5x | 21.8x | 28.0x | 2.8% | Pure beverage; lower margins |
| Mondelez | MDLZ | 24.2x | 17.1x | 22.5x | 2.5% | Snacks peer; cocoa headwinds |
| General Mills | GIS | 14.8x | 11.2x | 15.6x | 3.6% | Packaged food; volume decline |
| Kellogg (Kellanova) | K | 19.5x | 14.0x | 19.8x | 3.2% | Post-split snacks focus |
| PEP 5-yr Avg | PEP | 25.0x | 16.5x | 24.0x | 2.8% | Historical range 22-28x P/E |
| PEP Current | PEP | 26.2x | 13.7x | 28.0x | 3.6% | At current price $157 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $5.690 |
| Current Yield | 3.62% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 54 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +5.5% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +4.4% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.8% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +7.2% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 94.8% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 101.8% ⚠️ |
| Sustainability Verdict | Watch ⚠️ |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $5.49 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $6.42 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $6.56 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $6.95 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.00 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $8.38 | $8.71 | $9.18 | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $8.76 | $9.30 | $10.02 | 24 | Estimate |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $79.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $86.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $91.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $91.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $93.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $95.5B | $99.5B | $104.6B | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $98.2B | $102.6B | $109.4B | 24 | Estimate |
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filippo Falorni | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $182 | +15.9% |
| Michael Lavery | Piper Sandler | Buy | $181 | +15.3% |
| Andrea Teixeira | JP Morgan | Buy | $176 | +12.1% |
| Steve Powers | Deutsche Bank | Strong Buy | $169 | +7.6% |
| Robert Moskow | TD Cowen | Hold | $165 | +5.1% |
| Consensus Avg | 14 Analysts | Buy | $162 | +3.2% |
| Street Low | Various | Hold | $140 | -10.8% |
- Dividend King Status: 54 consecutive years of dividend growth — management is committed to the streak and has ample balance sheet capacity to maintain it through cycles.
- Frito-Lay Moat: FLNA generates ~30% operating margins with dominant share in salty snacks. This is the profit engine that funds dividends and acquisitions. No competitor comes close.
- Defensive Positioning: Low beta (0.42) and recession-resistant demand make PEP a core defensive holding. People buy Doritos in any economy.
- Valuation Support: At $157, trading 12% below 52-week high with a 3.6% yield — reasonable entry for a quality compounder. Base case DDM supports mid-$170s fair value.
- Risk: Payout Strain: FCF payout >100% in FY2025 is the key concern. The streak matters more than balance sheet optionality — management will fund dividends with debt if needed.
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Performance-linked incentives noted
Nooyi joined PepsiCo in 1994, and was named CEO in 2006, replacing Steven Reinemund, becoming the fifth CEO in PepsiCo's 44-year history. She started as PepsiCo's senior vice president for strategic planning from
Laguarta graduated with bachelor's and master's degrees in business administration from ESADE Business School in Barcelona in 1985. In 1986 he received a master's degree in international management from the T
(born October 28, 1955, Madras ... and its associated brands. Nooyi served as the company’s CEO (2006–18) and chair of the board of directors (2007–19)....
Organic revenue performance: A measure that adjusts for the impacts of foreign exchange translation (on a constant currency basis, as defined above), acquisitions and divestitures, and every five or six years, the impact of an additional we
2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · Q4 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · Q3 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · Q2 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · Q1 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · View all earnings results · Find key insights, reports, and information to stay connected to our perform
- recommend
Jul 4, 2025 · Human resources · Current employee, more than 3 years · Hyderābād · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Very good work culture sat & sun off · Cons · Noticed night to say any bad thing · S
PepsiCo has an employee rating of 3.8 out of 5 stars, based on 17,099 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Nov 19, 2025 · Senior manager · Former employee, more than 5 years · Purchase, NY · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · interesting work with a variety of projects · Cons · constantly shifting priorities make focus unclear
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$160 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$156 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$146 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$181 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
PepsiCo is a Hold/Accumulate at current levels. The stock offers a 3.6% yield with 54 years of consecutive dividend growth — elite quality that deserves a premium. Base case DDM suggests fair value in the mid-$170s, implying 10-15% upside from current levels. Accumulate on pullbacks to $150 or below for a more attractive entry yield of 3.8%+.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 1,337.71 |
| Average Cost Basis | $156.56 |
| Current Market Value | $210,034 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+602 (+0.3%) |
| Annual DPS | $5.690/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $7,612/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 3.62% |
| Yield on Cost | 3.63% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $210,034 / $200,000 (105%) |
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| DPS Base | Used current annual DPS of $5.69 ($1.4225/qtr × 4). This is the cash being distributed to shareholders. FCF/share is $5.59, so FCF payout is ~102% — tight but sustainable given balance sheet capacity. |
| Ke (Cost of Equity) | Ke = 4.25% Rf + 0.42β × 5.5% ERP = 6.56%. Low beta reflects defensive consumer staples positioning. No premium added — Dividend King status with A+ balance sheet. |
| Growth Rates | Stage 1 (g1): Bear 3.5% / Base 5.5% / Bull 7.0% — anchored to historical 5-yr DPS CAGR of 5.8% and management mid-single digit guidance. Stage 2 fades to terminal over years 6-10. |
| Terminal Growth | gT: Bear 2.0% / Base 2.5% / Bull 3.0% — consumer staples can sustain low-single digit growth perpetually through pricing power. |
| Sanity Check | Base case IV should be within ±20% of $162.36 consensus PT. The model generates Base IV in $170-180 range — reasonable given conservative consensus and our slightly higher terminal growth. |