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PEP

PEP

Hold 2026-04-03
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$157.01
Base IV
$173.79
Bear IV
$138.61
Bull IV
$212.70
Entry Zone: 146-160 · Sell Above: 181
Bore Family Office
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) • April 3, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 6.56% • Current Price: $157.01
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview

PepsiCo is a global food and beverage giant founded in 1965 through the merger of Pepsi-Cola and Frito-Lay, though Pepsi-Cola's roots trace back to 1893. Today, PepsiCo operates one of the world's largest convenient food and beverage portfolios with 23 billion-dollar brands including Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Gatorade, Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Quaker, and Tropicana. The company generates approximately 60% of revenue from its snacks/convenient foods business (Frito-Lay) and 40% from beverages, a mix that provides superior margins compared to pure-play beverage competitors.

PepsiCo operates across seven reportable segments spanning North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa/Middle East/South Asia, and Asia Pacific. The company employs approximately 315,000 people and serves customers in more than 200 countries. FY2025 revenue was $93.9B with EBITDA of $15.7B (16.7% margin).

Business SegmentRevenue% of TotalYoY GrowthMarginNotes
Frito-Lay North America (FLNA)$25,071M27%+2.0%29.5%Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, Tostitos — crown jewel with industry-leading margins
Quaker Foods North America (QFNA)$2,587M3%-6.0%18.0%Quaker Oats, Life cereal, Rice-A-Roni — mature, declining segment
PepsiCo Beverages NA (PBNA)$27,330M29%+1.0%11.0%Pepsi, Mountain Dew, Gatorade, Aquafina — volume pressure
Latin America (LatAm)$9,856M10%+8.0%16.5%Mexico, Brazil, Argentina — inflation-driven pricing
Europe$14,523M15%+3.0%12.5%UK, Germany, France, Russia exit impact
Africa, Middle East, South Asia (AMESA)$7,123M8%+5.0%14.5%Emerging markets — long-term growth driver
Asia Pacific (APAC)$7,435M8%+4.0%15.5%China, India — competitive but growing
Blended Growth Rate100%+2.6%Weighted avg across segments
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline

Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.

Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.

🔍 Quality Scorecard
MetricValueAssessment
ROIC11.8%8–12% adequate
FCF Margin8.2%5–10% adequate
Debt / EBITDA2.7x2–4x moderate
Revenue TrendGrowing 3yr3-year directional trend
FCF Margin TrendStable (±1pp)Directional margin trajectory
Analyst RevisionsNeutralLast 90 days consensus direction
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
Metric20212022202320242025
Revenue ($M)$79,474$86,392$91,471$91,854$93,925
Rev YoY Growth+8.7%+5.9%+0.4%+2.3%
Gross Margin53.3%53.0%54.2%54.6%54.1%
EBITDA ($M)$14,377$14,792$15,504$16,702$15,676
EBITDA Margin18.1%17.1%16.9%18.2%16.7%
Operating Income ($M)$11,162$11,512$11,986$12,887$11,498
Operating Margin14.0%13.3%13.1%14.0%12.2%
Net Income ($M)$7,618$8,910$9,074$9,578$8,240
Net Margin9.6%10.3%9.9%10.4%8.8%
EPS (diluted)$5.49$6.42$6.56$6.95$6.00
Free Cash Flow ($M)$6,991$5,604$7,924$7,189$7,672
Annual DPS$4.247$4.525$4.945$5.330$5.622
Total Debt ($M)$39,800$38,700$35,200$38,900$42,100
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-1.2% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +9.3% vs net income +8.2% over the period — +1.1pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
YearDiluted Shares (M)YoY ChangeBuyback Spend ($M)Buyback Yield
20211383.0M$1000.0%
20221377.0M-0.4%$2000.1%
20231374.0M-0.2%$1,0000.5%
20241372.0M-0.1%$8000.4%
20251367.0M-0.4%$5000.2%
PEP shares outstanding

PepsiCo prioritizes dividends over buybacks. Share count has declined only 1.2% over 5 years (from 1,383M to 1,367M shares). Annual buybacks of $500M-$1B are modest relative to the $7.7B dividend payout. The company allocates ~90% of FCF to dividends and uses the remainder for opportunistic buybacks and debt management. This is appropriate for a Stage 5 Capital Return company.

📈 DDM Scenarios
$139
🔴 Bear
$174
📊 Base
$213
🚀 Bull
$157.01
Current Price
$162
Analyst Avg PT
ScenarioStage 1 (Yrs 1–5)Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10)Terminal gKeIntrinsic Valuevs Price
🔴 Bear3.5%2.5%2.0%6.56%$139▼11.7%
📊 Base5.5%4.0%2.5%6.56%$174▲10.7%
🚀 Bull7.0%5.0%3.0%6.56%$213▲35.5%
Intrinsic Value vs PriceFCF Projection
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5%  |  Stage 2: 2.5%  |  Terminal: 2.0%
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$5.889$5.527$5.53
Year 2Stage 1$6.095$5.368$10.89
Year 3Stage 1$6.309$5.214$16.11
Year 4Stage 1$6.529$5.064$21.17
Year 5Stage 1$6.758$4.919$26.09
Year 6Stage 2$6.927$4.731$30.82
Year 7Stage 2$7.100$4.551$35.37
Year 8Stage 2$7.278$4.378$39.75
Year 9Stage 2$7.459$4.211$43.96
Year 10Stage 2$7.646$4.050$48.01
TerminalTV=$171.03PV(TV)=$90.60 (65% of IV)$138.61
Intrinsic ValuePV(Divs) $48.01 + PV(TV) $90.60$138.61
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.56%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $171.03. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $90.60). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($48.01) + PV of terminal value ($90.60) = $138.61 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.5%  |  Stage 2: 4.0%  |  Terminal: 2.5%
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$6.003$5.633$5.63
Year 2Stage 1$6.333$5.577$11.21
Year 3Stage 1$6.681$5.522$16.73
Year 4Stage 1$7.049$5.467$22.20
Year 5Stage 1$7.437$5.413$27.61
Year 6Stage 2$7.734$5.283$32.89
Year 7Stage 2$8.043$5.156$38.05
Year 8Stage 2$8.365$5.032$43.08
Year 9Stage 2$8.700$4.911$47.99
Year 10Stage 2$9.048$4.793$52.79
TerminalTV=$228.42PV(TV)=$121.00 (70% of IV)$173.79
Intrinsic ValuePV(Divs) $52.79 + PV(TV) $121.00$173.79
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.56%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $228.42. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $121.00). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($52.79) + PV of terminal value ($121.00) = $173.79 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.0%  |  Stage 2: 5.0%  |  Terminal: 3.0%
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$6.088$5.713$5.71
Year 2Stage 1$6.514$5.737$11.45
Year 3Stage 1$6.970$5.761$17.21
Year 4Stage 1$7.458$5.785$23.00
Year 5Stage 1$7.981$5.808$28.80
Year 6Stage 2$8.380$5.723$34.53
Year 7Stage 2$8.799$5.640$40.17
Year 8Stage 2$9.238$5.557$45.72
Year 9Stage 2$9.700$5.476$51.20
Year 10Stage 2$10.185$5.396$56.60
TerminalTV=$294.69PV(TV)=$156.11 (73% of IV)$212.70
Intrinsic ValuePV(Divs) $56.60 + PV(TV) $156.11$212.70
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.56%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $294.69. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $156.11). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($56.60) + PV of terminal value ($156.11) = $212.70 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
Ke \ gT1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
4.6%$247$285$340$430$601
5.1%$212$238$274$327$413
5.6%$185$204$229$263$314
6.1%$164$179$197$220$253
6.6%$148$159$172$189$212
7.1%$134$143$153$166$182
7.6%$123$129$138$148$160
8.1%$113$118$125$133$142
8.6%$104$109$114$121$128

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

Sensitivity Heatmap
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

Long-Term Trend Channel
🏦 Comparable Valuation
CompanyTickerP/EEV/EBITDAP/FCFDiv YieldNotes
Coca-ColaKO27.5x21.8x28.0x2.8%Pure beverage; lower margins
MondelezMDLZ24.2x17.1x22.5x2.5%Snacks peer; cocoa headwinds
General MillsGIS14.8x11.2x15.6x3.6%Packaged food; volume decline
Kellogg (Kellanova)K19.5x14.0x19.8x3.2%Post-split snacks focus
PEP 5-yr AvgPEP25.0x16.5x24.0x2.8%Historical range 22-28x P/E
PEP CurrentPEP26.2x13.7x28.0x3.6%At current price $157
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
MetricValue
Annual DPS$5.690
Current Yield3.62%
Consecutive Growth Years54
1-yr DPS CAGR+5.5%
3-yr DPS CAGR+4.4%
5-yr DPS CAGR+5.8%
10-yr DPS CAGR+7.2%
Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS)94.8% ⚠️
FCF Payout Ratio101.8% ⚠️
Sustainability VerdictWatch ⚠️
PepsiCo is a Dividend King with 54 consecutive years of dividend growth — an elite status shared by fewer than 50 companies globally. The 5-year DPS CAGR of 5.8% demonstrates consistent growth, and management has signaled mid-single digit dividend increases going forward. However, the FCF payout ratio of ~102% (FCF/share $5.59 vs DPS $5.69) is elevated. This is sustainable in the near term given PEP's balance sheet capacity and the temporary nature of FY2025 margin compression, but bears watching. The EPS payout ratio of 95% reflects one-time charges in FY2025; normalized EPS payout is closer to 70-75%. The dividend is safe but the company is prioritizing the streak over balance sheet conservatism.
Dividend History
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$5.49Actual
2022$6.42Actual
2023$6.56Actual
2024$6.95Actual
2025$6.00Actual
2026$8.38$8.71$9.1824Estimate
2027$8.76$9.30$10.0224Estimate
(b) Revenue Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$79.5BActual
2022$86.4BActual
2023$91.5BActual
2024$91.9BActual
2025$93.9BActual
2026$95.5B$99.5B$104.6B24Estimate
2027$98.2B$102.6B$109.4B24Estimate
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
AnalystFirmRatingPTUpside
Filippo FalorniCitigroupStrong Buy$182+15.9%
Michael LaveryPiper SandlerBuy$181+15.3%
Andrea TeixeiraJP MorganBuy$176+12.1%
Steve PowersDeutsche BankStrong Buy$169+7.6%
Robert MoskowTD CowenHold$165+5.1%
Consensus Avg14 AnalystsBuy$162+3.2%
Street LowVariousHold$140-10.8%
Analyst Forecast Confidence
Analyst Price Targets
💡 Investment Thesis
  • Dividend King Status: 54 consecutive years of dividend growth — management is committed to the streak and has ample balance sheet capacity to maintain it through cycles.
  • Frito-Lay Moat: FLNA generates ~30% operating margins with dominant share in salty snacks. This is the profit engine that funds dividends and acquisitions. No competitor comes close.
  • Defensive Positioning: Low beta (0.42) and recession-resistant demand make PEP a core defensive holding. People buy Doritos in any economy.
  • Valuation Support: At $157, trading 12% below 52-week high with a 3.6% yield — reasonable entry for a quality compounder. Base case DDM supports mid-$170s fair value.
  • Risk: Payout Strain: FCF payout >100% in FY2025 is the key concern. The streak matters more than balance sheet optionality — management will fund dividends with debt if needed.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: History Pepsi  ·  Tenure: Since 1994 (~32 yrs)  ·  ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH

Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.

Net Insider Buys (12m)
+384,603 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate

Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Performance-linked incentives noted

CEO Background & Track Record
Indra Nooyi - Wikipedia
Nooyi joined PepsiCo in 1994, and was named CEO in 2006, replacing Steven Reinemund, becoming the fifth CEO in PepsiCo's 44-year history. She started as PepsiCo's senior vice president for strategic planning from
Ramon Laguarta - Wikipedia
Laguarta graduated with bachelor's and master's degrees in business administration from ESADE Business School in Barcelona in 1985. In 1986 he received a master's degree in international management from the T
Indra Nooyi | Biography & Facts | Britannica Money
(born October 28, 1955, Madras ... and its associated brands. Nooyi served as the company’s CEO (2006–18) and chair of the board of directors (2007–19)....
Capital Allocation & Strategy
PepsiCo Announces Priorities to Enhance Shareholder Value an
Organic revenue performance: A measure that adjusts for the impacts of foreign exchange translation (on a constant currency basis, as defined above), acquisitions and divestitures, and every five or six years, the impact of an additional we
Investor Relations | PepsiCo
2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · Q4 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · Q3 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · Q2 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · Q1 2025 PepsiCo Earnings · View all earnings results · Find key insights, reports, and information to stay connected to our perform
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
385
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
  • recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
PepsiCo Human Resources Reviews | Glassdoor
Jul 4, 2025 · Human resources · Current employee, more than 3 years · Hyderābād · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Very good work culture sat & sun off · Cons · Noticed night to say any bad thing · S
PepsiCo Reviews (17,099): Pros & Cons of Working At PepsiCo
PepsiCo has an employee rating of 3.8 out of 5 stars, based on 17,099 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
PepsiCo Reviews in Purchase | Glassdoor
Nov 19, 2025 · Senior manager · Former employee, more than 5 years · Purchase, NY · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · interesting work with a variety of projects · Cons · constantly shifting priorities make focus unclear
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)
Current price: $157.01 | Analyst Avg PT: $162.36
$139
🔴 Bear
$174
📊 Base
$213
🚀 Bull
TierPriceAction
Tier 1 — Starter≤$160Begin position
Tier 2 — Add≤$156Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full≤$146Full allocation
Sell Alert≥$181Above fair value — consider trimming
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).

PepsiCo is a Hold/Accumulate at current levels. The stock offers a 3.6% yield with 54 years of consecutive dividend growth — elite quality that deserves a premium. Base case DDM suggests fair value in the mid-$170s, implying 10-15% upside from current levels. Accumulate on pullbacks to $150 or below for a more attractive entry yield of 3.8%+.

📂 Current Position Summary
MetricValue
Shares Held1,337.71
Average Cost Basis$156.56
Current Market Value$210,034
Unrealized P&L$+602 (+0.3%)
Annual DPS$5.690/yr
Annual Dividend Income$7,612/yr
Current Yield (at price)3.62%
Yield on Cost3.63%
vs Target (~$200K)$210,034 / $200,000 (105%)
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
AssumptionRationale / Notes
DPS BaseUsed current annual DPS of $5.69 ($1.4225/qtr × 4). This is the cash being distributed to shareholders. FCF/share is $5.59, so FCF payout is ~102% — tight but sustainable given balance sheet capacity.
Ke (Cost of Equity)Ke = 4.25% Rf + 0.42β × 5.5% ERP = 6.56%. Low beta reflects defensive consumer staples positioning. No premium added — Dividend King status with A+ balance sheet.
Growth RatesStage 1 (g1): Bear 3.5% / Base 5.5% / Bull 7.0% — anchored to historical 5-yr DPS CAGR of 5.8% and management mid-single digit guidance. Stage 2 fades to terminal over years 6-10.
Terminal GrowthgT: Bear 2.0% / Base 2.5% / Bull 3.0% — consumer staples can sustain low-single digit growth perpetually through pricing power.
Sanity CheckBase case IV should be within ±20% of $162.36 consensus PT. The model generates Base IV in $170-180 range — reasonable given conservative consensus and our slightly higher terminal growth.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.