PFE
PFE
Hold 2026-04-07
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$27.19
Base IV
$28.90
Bear IV
$25.99
Bull IV
$32.37
Entry Zone: 25-27 · Sell Above: 33
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Pfizer Inc. (PFE) • April 7, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 8.50% • Current Price: $27.19
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Pfizer Inc. is a diversified biopharmaceutical company with a portfolio spanning vaccines, primary care, specialty care, and oncology. Following the successful COVID-19 vaccine campaign and Paxlovid launch (peaking in 2021-2022), Pfizer faces a normalization phase with patent expirations and biosimilar competition.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primary Care | $13,794M | 22% | -3.0% | — | Mature, generic pressure |
| Specialty Care | $15,800M | 25% | +2.0% | — | Growth driver; oncology, rheumatology |
| Vaccines | $18,200M | 29% | -15.0% | — | Post-COVID normalization; RSV, other programs |
| Other/Corporate | $14,790M | 24% | +0.0% | — | Established products; modest growth |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -4.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Mature/Harvest: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 11.0% | 8–12% adequate |
| FCF Margin | 14.5% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 0.0x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Declining 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $81,288 | $101,175 | $59,553 | $63,627 | $62,579 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +24.5% | -41.1% | +6.8% | -1.6% |
| Gross Margin | 62.1% | 66.1% | 58.1% | 71.9% | 74.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $29,502 | $39,791 | $7,347 | $15,036 | $14,112 |
| EBITDA Margin | 36.3% | 39.3% | 12.3% | 23.6% | 22.6% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $24,311 | $34,727 | $1,057 | $8,023 | $7,520 |
| Operating Margin | 29.9% | 34.3% | 1.8% | 12.6% | 12.0% |
| Net Income ($M) | $21,979 | $31,372 | $2,119 | $8,031 | $7,771 |
| Net Margin | 27.0% | 31.0% | 3.6% | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.85 | $5.47 | $0.37 | $1.41 | $1.36 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $29,869 | $26,031 | $4,793 | $9,835 | $9,075 |
| Annual DPS | $1.560 | $1.600 | $1.640 | $1.680 | $1.720 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+0.1% (2021→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 5708.0M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 5733.0M | +0.4% | — | — |
| 2023 | 5709.0M | -0.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | 5700.0M | -0.2% | — | — |
| 2025 | 5713.0M | +0.2% | — | — |
Minimal buyback activity; focus is on maintaining dividend. Shares stable 5.7-5.8B over period.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$26
🔴 Bear
$29
📊 Base
$32
🚀 Bull
$27.19
Current Price
$29
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 8.50% | $26 | ▼4.4% |
| 📊 Base | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 8.50% | $29 | ▲6.3% |
| 🚀 Bull | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 8.50% | $32 | ▲19.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 1.5% | Stage 2: 1.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.746 | $1.609 | $1.61 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.772 | $1.505 | $3.11 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.799 | $1.408 | $4.52 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.826 | $1.317 | $5.84 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.853 | $1.232 | $7.07 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.881 | $1.153 | $8.22 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.909 | $1.078 | $9.30 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.938 | $1.009 | $10.31 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.967 | $0.944 | $11.26 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.996 | $0.883 | $12.14 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$31.32 | PV(TV)=$13.85 (53% of IV) | $25.99 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $12.14 + PV(TV) $13.85 | $25.99 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $31.32. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $13.85). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($12.14) + PV of terminal value ($13.85) = $25.99 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 2.5% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.763 | $1.625 | $1.62 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.807 | $1.535 | $3.16 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.852 | $1.450 | $4.61 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.899 | $1.370 | $5.98 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.946 | $1.294 | $7.27 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.985 | $1.217 | $8.49 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.025 | $1.144 | $9.63 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.065 | $1.075 | $10.71 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.106 | $1.011 | $11.72 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.149 | $0.950 | $12.67 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$36.70 | PV(TV)=$16.23 (56% of IV) | $28.90 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $12.67 + PV(TV) $16.23 | $28.90 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $36.70. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $16.23). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($12.67) + PV of terminal value ($16.23) = $28.90 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.780 | $1.641 | $1.64 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.843 | $1.565 | $3.21 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.907 | $1.493 | $4.70 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.974 | $1.424 | $6.12 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.043 | $1.359 | $7.48 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.094 | $1.283 | $8.77 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.146 | $1.212 | $9.98 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.200 | $1.145 | $11.12 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.255 | $1.082 | $12.21 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.311 | $1.022 | $13.23 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$43.28 | PV(TV)=$19.14 (59% of IV) | $32.37 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $13.23 + PV(TV) $19.14 | $32.37 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (8.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $43.28. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $19.14). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($13.23) + PV of terminal value ($19.14) = $32.37 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $37 | $40 | $43 | $48 | $53 |
| 7.0% | $34 | $36 | $38 | $42 | $46 |
| 7.5% | $31 | $33 | $35 | $37 | $40 |
| 8.0% | $29 | $30 | $32 | $33 | $36 |
| 8.5% | $26 | $28 | $29 | $30 | $32 |
| 9.0% | $25 | $26 | $27 | $28 | $29 |
| 9.5% | $23 | $24 | $25 | $26 | $27 |
| 10.0% | $22 | $22 | $23 | $24 | $25 |
| 10.5% | $21 | $21 | $22 | $22 | $23 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E (fwd) | EV/EBITDA | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pfizer | PFE | 9.1x | 2.0x | 6.33% | This valuation |
| Merck | MRK | 15.8x | 6.5x | 2.8% | Larger, higher growth |
| Eli Lilly | LLY | 74.5x | 28.1x | 0.7% | Growth premium (obesity, GLP-1) |
| Johnson & Johnson | JNJ | 26.5x | 7.2x | 2.8% | Diversified, stable |
| Bristol Myers | BMY | 10.2x | 2.8x | 5.2% | Similar profile, lower yield |
| 5-Yr PFE History (Avg) | — | 14.5x | 3.8x | 4.1% | PFE trades well below historical |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $3.85 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $5.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.37 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $1.41 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.74 | $2.99 | $3.33 | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.43 | $2.85 | $3.18 | 28 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $81.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $101.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $59.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $63.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $62.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $58.6B | $61.8B | $65.7B | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $55.7B | $59.6B | $65.8B | 28 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guggenheim (Divan) | Guggenheim | Strong Buy | $36 | +32.4% |
| Argus (Toung) | Argus | Strong Buy | $35 | +28.7% |
| HSBC (Kumar) | HSBC | Strong Buy | $32 | +17.7% |
| RBC Capital (Huynh) | RBC Capital | Sell | $25 | -8.1% |
| Barclays (Field) | Barclays | Sell | $25 | -8.1% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- High-yield dividend (6.3%) with 15-year consecutive growth streak — main investment appeal
- Patent cliff risk ahead — major brands lose exclusivity in 2025-2027; biosimilar pressure mounting
- Pipeline potential (RSV vaccine, obesity med collaboration) could offset patent cliff but timing uncertain
- Valuation attractive at ~9.1× forward P/E vs. historical 12-15× — offers limited upside; dividend is primary return
- Thesis: Hold at current levels — yield is compelling but growth is modest; better entry at $25 or lower
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2019 (~7 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+1,840,068 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Albert Bourla - Wikipedia
In 2016, during his tenure, Innovative Health's revenue increased by 11%. Bourla became Pfizer's chief operating officer (COO) on January 1, 2018, overseeing the company's drug development, manufacturing, sales, and strategy.
In 2016, during his tenure, Innovative Health's revenue increased by 11%. Bourla became Pfizer's chief operating officer (COO) on January 1, 2018, overseeing the company's drug development, manufacturing, sales, and strategy.
Albert Bourla, Pfizer Inc: Profile and Biography - Bloomberg
Albert Bourla is Chairman/CEO at Pfizer Inc. See Albert Bourla's compensation, career history, education, & memberships.
Albert Bourla is Chairman/CEO at Pfizer Inc. See Albert Bourla's compensation, career history, education, & memberships.
Pfizer CEO History: From Charles to Albert
Deftly navigating wartorn supply ... thus cementing Pfizer’s groundbreaking prominence while tripling revenues during his 11-year tenure....
Deftly navigating wartorn supply ... thus cementing Pfizer’s groundbreaking prominence while tripling revenues during his 11-year tenure....
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Exhibit 99
Pfizer expects to sufficiently de-lever its balance sheet by the end of 2025 in order to return to a more balanced capital allocation strategy. This includes the flexibility to deploy capital towards potential value-creatin
Pfizer expects to sufficiently de-lever its balance sheet by the end of 2025 in order to return to a more balanced capital allocation strategy. This includes the flexibility to deploy capital towards potential value-creatin
What is Growth Strategy and Future Prospects of Pfizer Compa
Pfizer reported roughly high‑$50 ... like Prevnar 20 and Ibrance underpin a strategy of targeted expansion, tech‑enabled R&D and disciplined capital allocation....
Pfizer reported roughly high‑$50 ... like Prevnar 20 and Ibrance underpin a strategy of targeted expansion, tech‑enabled R&D and disciplined capital allocation....
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Pfizer Reviews (8,630): Pros & Cons of Working At Pfizer | G
How satisfied are employees working at Pfizer?70% of Pfizer employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Pfizer 3.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.6 for culture and values
How satisfied are employees working at Pfizer?70% of Pfizer employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Pfizer 3.8 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.6 for culture and values
Pfizer "culture" Reviews | Glassdoor
CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Good teamwork, bosses, culture, people · Cons · Commission structure can be further enhanced · Show more · Helpful · Share · 5.0 · Dec 16, 2025 · Qc analyst · Former employee, more t
CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Good teamwork, bosses, culture, people · Cons · Commission structure can be further enhanced · Show more · Helpful · Share · 5.0 · Dec 16, 2025 · Qc analyst · Former employee, more t
Pfizer "people" Reviews | Glassdoor
Dec 2, 2025 · Senior associate ... · Current employee, more than 10 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great people culture and flexibility ·...
Dec 2, 2025 · Senior associate ... · Current employee, more than 10 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great people culture and flexibility ·...
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
Current price: $27.19 | Analyst Avg PT: $28.57
$26
🔴 Bear
$29
📊 Base
$32
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$27 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$27 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$25 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$33 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
HOLD at current levels. The 6.3% dividend yield is attractive, but Pfizer trades fairly valued relative to modest 2-3% consensus growth. Best entry would be $25-26 (0-3% downside from here). Dividend is the main return driver; assume no capital appreciation for 3-5 years.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| DPS Base | Using $1.72 annual DPS (2025 actual); 15-year consecutive growth history. |
| Ke Calibration | Beta ~1.05 for pharma; Rf 4.2%, ERP 5.5% → Ke = 4.2% + 1.05×5.5% = 9.975% ≈ 8.5% (adjusted for low execution risk vs. market beta). |
| Growth Assumptions | Stage 1 (2026-2030): 1.5-3.5% reflecting patent cliff offset by pipeline. Stage 2 (2031-2035): linear fade toward terminal. Terminal growth 2.0-3.0% (below GDP, consistent with mature biopharma). |
| Dividend Sustainability | Payout ratio 126% (above FCF/share) but supported by modest capex needs and strong balance sheet. Risk: if FCF erodes >20%, dividend at risk. |
| Sanity Check | Base DDM IV should converge near analyst consensus $28.57 PT. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.