POR
POR
Hold 2026-04-28
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$51.42
Base IV
$54.46
Bear IV
$51.17
Bull IV
$63.03
Entry Zone: 51-51 · Sell Above: 59
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Portland General Electric (POR) • April 28, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.50% • Current Price: $51.42
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Portland General Electric (POR) is an integrated electric utility serving approximately 950,000 customers across 1.9 million Oregonians. The company generates, transmits, and distributes electricity with a focus on clean energy transition.
Strategic initiatives: 615 MW of solar + battery storage projects (425 MW company-owned), pursuit of PacifiCorp Washington assets for expansion, and 5-7% long-term EPS growth guidance.
Regulatory environment: Operating under the Public Utility Commission of Oregon with cost-recovery mechanisms. Rate casepending
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Utility | $3,576M | 100% | +3.9% | — | Regulated electricity generation, transmission, and distribution |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +3.9% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $2,647 | $2,923 | $3,440 | $3,576 | $3,820 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +10.4% | +17.7% | +4.0% | +6.8% |
| Gross Margin | 36.7% | 34.8% | 34.4% | 37.0% | 37.0% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $814 | $854 | $1,008 | $1,133 | $1,220 |
| EBITDA Margin | 30.8% | 29.2% | 29.3% | 31.7% | 31.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $397 | $396 | $512 | $555 | $595 |
| Operating Margin | 15.0% | 13.5% | 14.9% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| Net Income ($M) | $233 | $228 | $313 | $306 | $330 |
| Net Margin | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.61 | $2.33 | $3.02 | $2.77 | $3.46 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $-92 | $-938 | $-490 | $-71 | $200 |
| Annual DPS | $1.788 | $1.877 | $1.975 | $2.075 | $2.200 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $3,386 | $3,905 | $4,354 | $4,662 | $4,700 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+29.1% (2021→2026)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 89.6M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 89.6M | +0.0% | — | — |
| 2023 | 98.0M | +9.3% | — | — |
| 2024 | 104.2M | +6.3% | — | — |
| 2025 | 110.7M | +6.3% | — | — |
| 2026 | 115.7M | +4.5% | — | — |
No meaningful buybacks in past 5 years. Capital return via dividends only (5% annual growth).
📈 DDM Scenarios
$51
🔴 Bear
$54
📊 Base
$63
🚀 Bull
$51.42
Current Price
$49
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 7.50% | $51 | ▼0.5% |
| 📊 Base | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 7.50% | $54 | ▲5.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 7.50% | $63 | ▲22.6% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.184 | $2.032 | $2.03 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.271 | $1.965 | $4.00 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.362 | $1.901 | $5.90 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.457 | $1.840 | $7.74 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.555 | $1.780 | $9.52 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.644 | $1.713 | $11.23 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.737 | $1.650 | $12.88 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.833 | $1.588 | $14.47 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.932 | $1.529 | $16.00 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.035 | $1.472 | $17.47 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$69.46 | PV(TV)=$33.70 (66% of IV) | $51.17 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $17.47 + PV(TV) $33.70 | $51.17 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $69.46. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $33.70). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($17.47) + PV of terminal value ($33.70) = $51.17 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.205 | $2.051 | $2.05 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.315 | $2.003 | $4.05 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.431 | $1.957 | $6.01 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.553 | $1.911 | $7.92 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.680 | $1.867 | $9.79 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.787 | $1.806 | $11.60 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.899 | $1.747 | $13.34 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.015 | $1.690 | $15.03 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.135 | $1.635 | $16.67 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.261 | $1.582 | $18.25 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$74.64 | PV(TV)=$36.21 (66% of IV) | $54.46 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $18.25 + PV(TV) $36.21 | $54.46 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $74.64. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $36.21). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($18.25) + PV of terminal value ($36.21) = $54.46 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 4.5% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.226 | $2.071 | $2.07 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.360 | $2.042 | $4.11 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.501 | $2.013 | $6.13 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.651 | $1.985 | $8.11 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.810 | $1.958 | $10.07 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.937 | $1.903 | $11.97 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.069 | $1.850 | $13.82 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.207 | $1.798 | $15.62 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.351 | $1.748 | $17.37 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.502 | $1.699 | $19.07 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$90.62 | PV(TV)=$43.97 (70% of IV) | $63.03 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $19.07 + PV(TV) $43.97 | $63.03 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $90.62. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $43.97). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($19.07) + PV of terminal value ($43.97) = $63.03 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $69 | $76 | $85 | $99 | $119 |
| 6.0% | $61 | $66 | $73 | $82 | $95 |
| 6.5% | $54 | $59 | $64 | $70 | $79 |
| 7.0% | $49 | $53 | $56 | $61 | $68 |
| 7.5% | $45 | $48 | $51 | $54 | $59 |
| 8.0% | $41 | $43 | $46 | $49 | $53 |
| 8.5% | $38 | $40 | $42 | $44 | $47 |
| 9.0% | $36 | $37 | $39 | $41 | $43 |
| 9.5% | $33 | $34 | $36 | $37 | $39 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.60 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.33 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.01 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.77 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.33 | $3.46 | $3.64 | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.40 | $3.64 | $3.90 | 16 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.6B | $3.8B | $4.1B | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.7B | $4.0B | $4.5B | 16 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregg Orrill | UBS | Hold | $55 | +7.0% |
| Aidan Kelly | JP Morgan | Hold | $54 | +5.0% |
| Nicholas Campanella | Barclays | Hold | $53 | +3.1% |
| Shahriar Pourreza | Wells Fargo | Hold | $49 | -4.7% |
💡 Investment Thesis
Core thesis: POR is a quality regulated utility trading at a reasonable entry point with attractive yield and modest growth.
- Regulated stability: Cost-of-service regulation provides predictable cash flow and limited earnings volatility.
- Clean energy transition: 615 MW of solar+storage pipeline supports long-term earnings growth while aligning with Oregon’s clean energy mandates.
- Capital return policy: 5% annual dividend growth with 60-70% long-term payout ratio targets.
- Expansion opportunity: Potential acquisition of PacifiCorp Washington assets could drive accretion and geographic diversification.
Risks: Interest rate sensitivity (high debt), capital expenditure inflation, regulatory delay, and Oregon’s challenging rate case environment.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Arizona Public · Tenure: Since 2017 (~9 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+106,236 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Corporate Governance | Portland General Electric Company
Renée J. James is the founder ... she held a variety of leadership positions at Intel Corporation throughout her 28-year tenure, serving as President of the company....
Renée J. James is the founder ... she held a variety of leadership positions at Intel Corporation throughout her 28-year tenure, serving as President of the company....
Portland General Electric Company (POR) Leadership & Managem
Portland General Electric's CEO is Maria Pope, appointed in Oct 2017, has a tenure of 8.5 years. total yearly compensation is $7.58M, comprised of 15.9% salary and 84.1% bonuses, including company stock and options. di
Portland General Electric's CEO is Maria Pope, appointed in Oct 2017, has a tenure of 8.5 years. total yearly compensation is $7.58M, comprised of 15.9% salary and 84.1% bonuses, including company stock and options. di
Portland General Electric CEO and Key Executive Team | Craft
Portland General Electric's President and Chief Executive Officer, Director is Maria Pope. Other executives include James Lobdell, Senior Vice President of Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; Jack E. Davis,
Portland General Electric's President and Chief Executive Officer, Director is Maria Pope. Other executives include James Lobdell, Senior Vice President of Finance, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; Jack E. Davis,
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Portland General Electric announces 2024 financial results a
$78 million in capital investments to continue system hardening and grid design efforts, expand situational awareness capabilities, implement specific inspection and maintenance, vegetation management, community outreach an
$78 million in capital investments to continue system hardening and grid design efforts, expand situational awareness capabilities, implement specific inspection and maintenance, vegetation management, community outreach an
Corporate Governance | Portland General Electric Company
McFarland rejoined PGE in 2024 and has over 20 years of experience across the Energy, Automotive, and Consumer Products industries with a focus on general management, operations, and product development.
McFarland rejoined PGE in 2024 and has over 20 years of experience across the Energy, Automotive, and Consumer Products industries with a focus on general management, operations, and product development.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
160
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- recommend
⚠️ Concerns
- toxic
- layoffs
Employee Review Excerpts
Portland General Electric Reviews (366): Pros & Cons of Work
Employees also rated Portland General Electric 3.5 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values and 3.6 for career opportunities. What are employees saying about Portland General Electric layoffs in 2025?Explo
Employees also rated Portland General Electric 3.5 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for culture and values and 3.6 for career opportunities. What are employees saying about Portland General Electric layoffs in 2025?Explo
Working at Portland General Electric: 160 Reviews | Indeed.c
The talk is big but the walk is small..... PAy equity is gross. The CEO gets 100% of their salary for a bonus but you cannot work hard enough to get 10%....The culture at the company is misaligned.
The talk is big but the walk is small..... PAy equity is gross. The CEO gets 100% of their salary for a bonus but you cannot work hard enough to get 10%....The culture at the company is misaligned.
Portland General Electric - Toxic CEO and Culture | Glassdoo
Pay and benefits are good. Focus on green energy seems quite solid. Due to disorder, expectations are low so if you can keep a cool head you can get promoted.
Pay and benefits are good. Focus on green energy seems quite solid. Due to disorder, expectations are low so if you can keep a cool head you can get promoted.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Portland General Electric (POR)
Current price: $51.42 | Analyst Avg PT: $48.55
$51
🔴 Bear
$54
📊 Base
$63
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$51 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$51 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$51 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$59 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: HOLD — Fair value range ($48–$64) implies limited upside at current price ($51.42). Enter on weakness below $45.
Buy zone: $43–$46 (Bear to Base IV) — attractive entry with 5%+ yield and 5% annual dividend growth.
Hold: Current position — dividend income attractive but capital appreciation limited near fair value.
Sell: Above $60 — full valuation already priced in; consider trimming above bull case IV.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 98.426 |
| Average Cost Basis | $42.57 |
| Current Market Value | $5,061 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+871 (+20.8%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.100/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $207/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 4.08% |
| Yield on Cost | 4.93% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $5,061 / $200,000 (3%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| DDM Base | Used DPS ($2.10 annual) as DDM base. POR has 75.8% payout ratio — elevated but justified for a regulated utility with stable cash flows. FCF/share would unduly penalize POR due to heavy capex (debt-financed infrastructure investments). |
| Ke Selection | Ke = 7.5% (vs. calculated 7.35%). Applied 15bps buffer for regulatory execution risk and interest rate sensitivity. β = 0.57 (low-beta utility), Rf = 4.25% (10-yr Treasury), ERP = 5.5% (Damodaran US). |
| Growth Rates | Stage 1 growth (5%) aligned with historical 5-year DPS CAGR (5.04%) and management’s 5-7% EPS guidance. Terminal growth (3%) reflects long-run GDP + 2% inflation. Bear case (4%) conservative; Bull case (6%) near upper bound of EPS guidance. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ($56) within 6% of analyst consensus PT ($48.55). DDM consistently values utilities higher than DCF due to debt-financed infrastructure (WACC understates true equity risk). Market prices POR at 9.4× EV/EBITDA vs. 7.5–10.0× peer median. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.