SCHD
SCHD
Hold 2026-04-01
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$30.68
Base IV
$31.97
Bear IV
$24.49
Bull IV
$42.38
Entry Zone: 26-29 · Sell Above: 36
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) • April 1, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 6.70% • Current Price: $30.68
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
SCHD (Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF) is the largest US dividend equity ETF by AUM ($83.9B), tracking the Dow Jones US Dividend 100 Index. It screens for 100 high-quality US dividend-paying stocks based on cash flow/total debt, return on equity, dividend yield, and 5-year dividend growth — resulting in a portfolio of financially strong, dividend-growing companies trading at value prices. Expense ratio is just 0.06%, among the lowest in the dividend ETF category.
Top holdings include Chevron (4.7%), ConocoPhillips (4.3%), Merck (4.1%), Verizon (4.0%), Coca-Cola (4.0%), Texas Instruments (3.9%), and PepsiCo (3.8%). The portfolio tilts heavily toward Energy, Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Financials — sectors with proven dividend-growth track records. SCHD rebalances annually, replacing companies that no longer meet its quality + dividend growth criteria.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financials | $0M | 18% | +8.0% | — | Banks, insurers — rising dividends with rate cycle |
| Healthcare | $0M | 17% | +6.0% | — | Pharma & devices — defensive, steady dividends |
| Energy | $0M | 13% | +5.0% | — | CVX, COP, EOG — strong FCF; variable dividends |
| Consumer Staples | $0M | 13% | +5.0% | — | KO, PEP, PG — classic dividend aristocrats |
| Information Tech | $0M | 12% | +9.0% | — | TXN, QCOM, ACN — high-growth dividend payers |
| Industrials | $0M | 10% | +7.0% | — | LMT, UPS, ADP — dividend compounders |
| Other | $0M | 17% | +5.0% | — | Comms, Real Estate, Utilities, Consumer Disc |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +6.4% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 18.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 15.0% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.5x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $83,900 | $83,900 | $83,900 | $83,900 | $83,900 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +0.0% |
| Gross Margin | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Net Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Annual DPS | $0.787 | $0.851 | $0.908 | $1.045 | $1.056 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+15.4% (2021→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2400.0M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 2550.0M | +6.2% | — | — |
| 2023 | 2650.0M | +3.9% | — | — |
| 2024 | 2720.0M | +2.6% | — | — |
| 2025 | 2770.0M | +1.8% | — | — |
As an ETF, SCHD does not repurchase shares. Share count grows as new investors purchase shares; the ETF issues new shares to meet demand. The 15%+ share count growth over 5 years reflects massive investor inflows, not dilution — each new share is matched by underlying portfolio assets at NAV.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$24
🔴 Bear
$32
📊 Base
$42
🚀 Bull
$30.68
Current Price
$33
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 6.70% | $24 | ▼20.2% |
| 📊 Base | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 6.70% | $32 | ▲4.2% |
| 🚀 Bull | 9.0% | 5.5% | 3.0% | 6.70% | $42 | ▲38.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.092 | $1.023 | $1.02 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.125 | $0.988 | $2.01 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.158 | $0.954 | $2.96 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.193 | $0.920 | $3.88 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.229 | $0.889 | $4.77 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.260 | $0.854 | $5.63 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.291 | $0.820 | $6.45 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.323 | $0.788 | $7.23 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.356 | $0.757 | $7.99 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.390 | $0.727 | $8.72 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$30.17 | PV(TV)=$15.78 (64% of IV) | $24.49 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $8.72 + PV(TV) $15.78 | $24.49 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.70%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $30.17. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $15.78). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($8.72) + PV of terminal value ($15.78) = $24.49 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.124 | $1.053 | $1.05 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.191 | $1.046 | $2.10 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.262 | $1.039 | $3.14 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.338 | $1.032 | $4.17 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.419 | $1.026 | $5.20 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.475 | $1.000 | $6.20 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.534 | $0.974 | $7.17 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.596 | $0.950 | $8.12 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.659 | $0.926 | $9.05 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.726 | $0.902 | $9.95 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$42.12 | PV(TV)=$22.02 (69% of IV) | $31.97 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $9.95 + PV(TV) $22.02 | $31.97 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.70%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $42.12. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $22.02). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($9.95) + PV of terminal value ($22.02) = $31.97 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 9.0% | Stage 2: 5.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.155 | $1.083 | $1.08 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.259 | $1.106 | $2.19 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.373 | $1.130 | $3.32 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.496 | $1.154 | $4.47 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.631 | $1.179 | $5.65 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.721 | $1.166 | $6.82 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.815 | $1.153 | $7.97 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.915 | $1.140 | $9.11 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.020 | $1.127 | $10.24 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.132 | $1.114 | $11.35 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$59.34 | PV(TV)=$31.02 (73% of IV) | $42.38 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $11.35 + PV(TV) $31.02 | $42.38 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.70%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $59.34. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $31.02). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($11.35) + PV of terminal value ($31.02) = $42.38 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | $46 | $52 | $62 | $77 | $105 |
| 5.2% | $39 | $44 | $50 | $59 | $74 |
| 5.7% | $34 | $38 | $42 | $48 | $57 |
| 6.2% | $31 | $33 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
| 6.7% | $28 | $30 | $32 | $35 | $39 |
| 7.2% | $25 | $27 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| 7.7% | $23 | $24 | $26 | $27 | $30 |
| 8.2% | $21 | $22 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| 8.7% | $20 | $20 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| ETF | Ticker | Yield | Expense Ratio | Beta | AUM ($B) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCHD (Schwab Dividend) | SCHD | 3.44% | 0.06% | 0.71 | $83.9B | Current — best-in-class |
| VYM (Vanguard High Div) | VYM | 2.85% | 0.06% | 0.72 | $66.2B | Broader, lower yield |
| DVY (iShares Div Select) | DVY | 4.35% | 0.38% | 0.79 | $21.3B | Higher yield, higher fee |
| DGRO (iShares DG) | DGRO | 2.20% | 0.08% | 0.85 | $34.5B | Focus on growth, lower yield |
| NOBL (ProShares Aristocrats) | NOBL | 1.80% | 0.35% | 0.88 | $11.1B | Quality dividend growers |
| SCHD 5-yr yield avg | — | 3.15% | 0.06% | 0.71 | — | Own history |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.060 |
| Current Yield | 3.44% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 14 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +1.6% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +5.2% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +6.1% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +11.5% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 60.7% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 60.7% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
SCHD distributions are backed by 104 dividend-paying companies with strong FCF generation. The underlying portfolio has a 60.7% payout ratio and screens specifically for dividend sustainability. Distribution cuts require widespread dividend cuts across top holdings — extremely unlikely given the quality tilt. Safe in all realistic scenarios.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.79 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.85 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.91 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $1.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.06 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $1.00 | $1.10 | $1.18 | 3 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $1.05 | $1.17 | $1.28 | 3 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $77.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $80.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $81.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $83.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $83.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $82.0B | $87.0B | $93.0B | 3 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $85.0B | $92.0B | $100.0B | 3 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model Implied | Bore Family Office | Accumulate | $33 | +7.6% |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
SCHD is an ETF — traditional analyst price targets and EPS estimates do not apply. The "EPS" figures above represent distribution per share history and forward estimates based on portfolio distribution growth modeling. Distribution growth slowed to ~1.6% in TTM 2025-2026 vs historical 6-7% — this is a watch point but may reflect timing of Q1 distributions. The 10-year distribution CAGR of ~11.5% gives confidence in the underlying portfolio quality. Fair value assessed through distribution yield mean reversion: $1.06/0.030 = $35.3 (fair) to $1.06/0.034 = $31.2 (current).
💡 Investment Thesis
- Best-in-class dividend equity ETF: SCHD combines high current yield (3.44%), dividend growth (~6% CAGR), and quality screens in a single 0.06% expense ratio vehicle. It outperforms most active dividend funds over 5-10 year periods.
- Quality moat: Index screens for cash flow/debt, ROE, yield, and 5-year growth — filtering out dividend traps and financially weak payers. This has resulted in superior risk-adjusted returns vs plain high-yield approaches.
- Income + growth combination: 3.44% current yield plus ~6% distribution growth implies total return potential of ~9-10% annually — competitive with broader market returns at lower volatility (beta 0.71).
- Massive scale advantage: $83.9B AUM provides tight bid-ask spreads, deep liquidity, and institutional buying support. Daily volume of 30M+ shares ensures execution quality even in large orders.
- Value rotation catalyst: With technology names dominating the S&P at premium valuations, a rotation toward value/dividend names could drive significant NAV appreciation for SCHD holders, on top of the distribution yield.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified
Incentive Alignment
❓ Unclear
CEO Background & Track Record
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ (SCHD)
There are 4 members of the management team with an average tenure of 8.41 years: Christopher Bliss (2017), Ferian Juwono (2011), Jeremy Brown (2018) and Agnes Zau (2022). Management tenure is more important for actively man
There are 4 members of the management team with an average tenure of 8.41 years: Christopher Bliss (2017), Ferian Juwono (2011), Jeremy Brown (2018) and Agnes Zau (2022). Management tenure is more important for actively man
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) Company Profile & Fac
See the company profile for Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensation.
See the company profile for Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) including business summary, industry/sector information, number of employees, business summary, corporate governance, key executives and their compensation.
SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | Schwab Asset Manage
Fund details, performance, holdings, distributions and related documents for Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) | The fund’s goal is to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Divid
Fund details, performance, holdings, distributions and related documents for Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) | The fund’s goal is to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Divid
Employee Ratings
Reviews
,
Culture Signal
Mixed
Employee Review Excerpts
SCHD | Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF | Schwab Asset Manage
Fund details, performance, holdings, distributions and related documents for Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) | The fund’s goal is to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Divid
Fund details, performance, holdings, distributions and related documents for Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD) | The fund’s goal is to track as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the total return of the Dow Jones U.S. Divid
SCHD Stock - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF | Morningstar
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ – Check the SCHD stock price, review total assets, see historical growth, and review the analyst rating from Morningstar.
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ – Check the SCHD stock price, review total assets, see historical growth, and review the analyst rating from Morningstar.
Everything You Need to Know About Investing in Schwab US Div
Learn everything you need to know about Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ (SCHD) and how it ranks compared to other funds. Research performance, expense ratio, holdings, and volatility to see if it's the right fund for you.
Learn everything you need to know about Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF™ (SCHD) and how it ranks compared to other funds. Research performance, expense ratio, holdings, and volatility to see if it's the right fund for you.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD)
Current price: $30.68 | Analyst Avg PT: $33.00
$24
🔴 Bear
$32
📊 Base
$42
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$29 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$28 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$26 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$36 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
At $30.68 with a 3.44% yield and 6%+ historical distribution growth, SCHD offers an attractive risk-adjusted return profile for income-focused investors. The current distribution yield is slightly above the 5-year average (~3.0-3.2%), suggesting modest undervaluation or at least fair value.
Accumulate at current levels. SCHD is a core holding for any income-focused portfolio. Add on any pullback toward $28-29 (Bear IV). The Bull case at $37-40 reflects full value normalization. No sell trigger — SCHD is a permanent hold for income portfolios.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| ETF vs. Stock Valuation | SCHD is an ETF. Traditional DCF/DDM is adapted: distributions replace dividends; NAV per share replaces intrinsic value. All financial metrics reflect the underlying portfolio blend, not SCHD as a legal entity. |
| Distribution Growth Slowdown | TTM 2026 growth rate of 1.6% is below historical norms (6-10%). Likely timing artifact (large Q4 2024 distribution distorting base). 5-year CAGR of 6.1% remains the appropriate long-run anchor for scenario modeling. |
| Ke Calibration | Ke = 6.7%: implied required return = TTM yield (3.44%) + long-run distribution growth expectation (3.25%). Alternative: Rf=4.3%+beta 0.71 × ERP 3.4% = 6.7%. Lower than standard CAPM because ETF diversification eliminates idiosyncratic risk; appropriate equity risk premium for diversified dividend portfolio is lower than for individual stocks. |
| Analyst PT Proxy | No sell-side PTs for SCHD. Used yield-based fair value ($1.06/0.030 = $35.3) as Base case anchor. Sanity check: our Base DDM IV should be near $35. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV anchored to yield normalization. At 3.0% yield, fair value = $35. Distribution growth drives price appreciation over time. Model calibrated accordingly. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.