SIRI
SIRI
Hold/Avoid 2026-03-05
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$22.74
Base IV
$1.07
Bear IV
$0.38
Bull IV
$1.66
Entry Zone: 18-20 · Sell Above: 28
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) • March 5, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 9.00% • Current Price: $22.74
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Sirius XM is the dominant satellite radio operator in North America with ~33M subscribers, reaching listeners primarily through automotive partnerships. Following the 2024 merger with Liberty Media's tracking stock, it trades as a single entity encompassing SiriusXM (satellite radio) and Pandora (on-demand streaming). The business is capital-intensive (satellite infrastructure) and highly leveraged ($9.9B net debt). Subscribers are slowly declining as streaming alternatives gain share; FCF remains resilient near $1.1B annually but growth is near zero.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $5,017 | $5,425 | $5,770 | $7,794 | $8,040 | $8,696 | $9,003 | $8,953 | $8,699 | $8,558 |
| EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,432 | $1,640 | $1,726 | $1,647 | $858 | $2,015 | $2,036 | $1,946 | $-1,517 | $1,471 |
| Net Income ($M) | $745 | $647 | $1,175 | — | — | — | — | — | $-1,665 | $805 |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | — | $0.20 | $0.03 | $0.32 | $0.31 | $0.32 | $-6.14 | $2.23 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | — | — | $1,524 | $1,654 | $1,668 | $1,610 | $1,550 | $1,200 | $1,013 | $1,245 |
| Annual DPS | — | — | — | — | — | $0.880 | $0.990 | $1.010 | $1.100 | $1.130 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $5,842 | $6,741 | $6,884 | $7,842 | $8,499 | $8,832 | $9,256 | $8,690 | $10,314 | $8,648 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +8.1% | +6.4% | +35.1% | +3.2% | +8.2% | +3.5% | -0.6% | -2.8% | -1.6% |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$0
🔴 Bear
$1
📊 Base
$2
🚀 Bull
$22.74
Current Price
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.08B | $0.99B | $0.99B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.06B | $0.89B | $1.88B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.04B | $0.80B | $2.68B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.01B | $0.72B | $3.40B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $0.99B | $0.65B | $4.04B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.98B | $0.59B | $4.63B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.97B | $0.53B | $5.16B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.96B | $0.48B | $5.65B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.96B | $0.44B | $6.09B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.95B | $0.40B | $6.49B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$11.6B | PV(TV)=$4.9B (43% of EV) | EV=$11.4B |
Base Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.11B | $1.02B | $1.02B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.12B | $0.94B | $1.96B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.13B | $0.88B | $2.84B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.14B | $0.81B | $3.65B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.16B | $0.75B | $4.40B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.17B | $0.70B | $5.10B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.19B | $0.65B | $5.75B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.21B | $0.61B | $6.36B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.23B | $0.56B | $6.92B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.25B | $0.53B | $7.45B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$15.7B | PV(TV)=$6.6B (47% of EV) | EV=$14.1B |
Bull Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.13B | $1.04B | $1.04B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.17B | $0.98B | $2.02B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.20B | $0.93B | $2.95B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.24B | $0.88B | $3.83B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.28B | $0.83B | $4.66B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.31B | $0.78B | $5.44B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.34B | $0.73B | $6.17B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.37B | $0.69B | $6.86B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.41B | $0.65B | $7.51B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.44B | $0.61B | $8.11B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$19.5B | PV(TV)=$8.2B (50% of EV) | EV=$16.4B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $3 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
| 7.5% | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
| 8.0% | $2 | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 |
| 8.5% | $1 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
| 9.0% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 9.5% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 |
| 10.0% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 10.5% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 11.0% | $0 | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | Rev Growth | P/E | FCF Yield | Div Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius XM | SIRI | -1.6% | 9.4x | ~4.9% | 4.8% |
| Spotify | SPOT | +18% | 75x | <1% | 0% |
| iHeart Media | IHRT | ~0% | N/A | N/A | 0% |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.130 |
| Current Yield | 4.82% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 5 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +2.7% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +4.5% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.1% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 51.0% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 42.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Watch |
Verdict: Watch. Dividend covered by FCF but $9.9B net debt is the primary risk. Any FCF deterioration puts dividend at risk.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $0.32 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $0.31 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.32 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $-6.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.23 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.79 | $3.12 | $3.51 | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.91 | $3.27 | $3.77 | 16 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $8.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $9.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $9.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $8.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $8.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $8.3B | $8.7B | $9.0B | 16 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $8.3B | $8.8B | $9.3B | 16 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $25.00 | Range $18–$30
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Sholl | Barrington | Buy | $28 | +23.1% |
| Barton Crockett | Rosenblatt | Hold | $24 | +5.5% |
| Sebastiano Petti | JP Morgan | Hold | $24 | +5.5% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.56 vs $0.55 | +$0.01 ✅ | $2.1B vs $2.1B | +$0.0B ✅ | In-line |
| Q3 2025 | $0.56 vs $0.54 | +$0.02 ✅ | $2.2B vs $2.1B | +$0.0B ✅ | In-line |
| Q2 2025 | $0.55 vs $0.56 | $-0.01 ❌ | $2.2B vs $2.2B | $-0.0B ❌ | Cautious |
| Q1 2025 | $0.53 vs $0.52 | +$0.01 ✅ | $2.2B vs $2.1B | +$0.0B ✅ | Stable |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Analysts use P/E (7-9x EPS), not DCF. DCF gives conservative values due to $9.9B net debt vs ~$1.1B FCF.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bear: Satellite radio in structural decline. $9.9B net debt at ~9x EBITDA. DCF intrinsic value well below current price due to debt overhang.
Bull: 4.8% yield; stable FCF ~$1.1B; captive automotive audience; 9x P/E on consensus EPS. Buybacks reducing share count.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold/Avoid — Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)
Current price: $22.74
$0
🔴 Bear
$1
📊 Base
$2
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$20 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$19 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$18 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$28 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Hold/Avoid at $22.74. Analysts use P/E (7-9x EPS) — consensus PT $25. On that methodology the stock is fairly valued. DCF gives much lower values due to $9.9B debt vs $1.1B FCF. Only compelling at $18-19 (>6% FCF yield on equity). No strong buy case at current price.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.