SWKS
SWKS
Accumulate 2026-04-03
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$55.19
Base IV
$86.20
Bear IV
$48.80
Bull IV
$134.80
Entry Zone: 51-79 · Sell Above: 115
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) • April 3, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 9.15% • Current Price: $55.19
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Skyworks Solutions designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, specializing in radio frequency (RF) chips that enable wireless connectivity in smartphones, IoT devices, and infrastructure. Founded in 2002 through the merger of Alpha Industries and Conexant's wireless business, Skyworks became a key supplier to Apple's iPhone, which now represents over 50% of revenue. The company is headquartered in Irvine, California with ~11,500 employees globally.
The business faces structural headwinds: smartphone unit volumes peaked in 2021, Apple is increasingly designing its own RF components in-house, and geopolitical restrictions limit China exposure. Revenue has declined from $5.5B (FY22) to $4.1B (FY25), while margins have compressed. However, the company generates exceptional free cash flow (~27% FCF margin) and maintains a net cash balance sheet, supporting a 12-year dividend growth streak.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile (Apple) | $2,200M | 54% | -15.0% | 35.0% | iPhone RF front-end; share at risk from Apple in-sourcing |
| Mobile (Android) | $900M | 22% | -8.0% | 28.0% | Samsung, Xiaomi, Oppo; China exposure |
| Broad Markets | $987M | 24% | +5.0% | 32.0% | IoT, Automotive, Infrastructure — growth engine |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -8.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 6 — Decline: Revenue and margins declining. Forward cash flows unreliable — asset value, sum-of-parts, or liquidation analysis is most appropriate.
Why this drives model selection: Forward cash flows unreliable — asset value or liquidation analysis.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 8.0% | 8–12% adequate |
| FCF Margin | 27.0% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.2x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Declining 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Downward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $5,109 | $5,486 | $4,772 | $4,178 | $4,087 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +7.4% | -13.0% | -12.4% | -2.2% |
| Gross Margin | 49.2% | 47.5% | 44.2% | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $2,049 | $2,217 | $1,739 | $1,089 | $963 |
| EBITDA Margin | 40.1% | 40.4% | 36.4% | 26.1% | 23.6% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,613 | $1,527 | $1,125 | $637 | $500 |
| Operating Margin | 31.6% | 27.8% | 23.6% | 15.2% | 12.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $1,498 | $1,275 | $983 | $596 | $477 |
| Net Margin | 29.3% | 23.2% | 20.6% | 14.3% | 11.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.97 | $7.81 | $6.13 | $3.69 | $3.08 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $1,134 | $935 | $1,646 | $1,668 | $1,106 |
| Annual DPS | $2.060 | $2.300 | $2.540 | $2.740 | $2.810 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $2,380 | $2,396 | $1,481 | $1,180 | $1,166 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-7.2% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -65.7% vs net income -68.2% over the period — +2.5pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 167.0M | — | $100 | 1.1% |
| 2022 | 163.0M | -2.4% | $350 | 3.9% |
| 2023 | 160.0M | -1.8% | $400 | 4.5% |
| 2024 | 162.0M | +1.2% | $300 | 3.4% |
| 2025 | 155.0M | -4.3% | $470 | 5.5% |
Aggressive buyback program — 5.7% share count reduction FY25. Buyback yield 5.71% plus dividend yield 5.15% = 11% total shareholder yield. Company prioritizes returns over growth capex.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.550 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 12.78% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.50% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.96% | × (1 − 12%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 87.8% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 12.2% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 9.15% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$49
🔴 Bear
$86
📊 Base
$135
🚀 Bull
$55.19
Current Price
$73
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -8.0% | -3.0% | 1.0% | 9.15% | $49 | ▼11.6% |
| 📊 Base | -2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 9.15% | $86 | ▲56.2% |
| 🚀 Bull | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 9.15% | $135 | ▲144.3% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -8.0% | Stage 2: -3.0% | Terminal: 1.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.90B | $0.82B | $0.82B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.80B | $0.67B | $1.50B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.72B | $0.55B | $2.05B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.66B | $0.46B | $2.51B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.61B | $0.39B | $2.91B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.59B | $0.35B | $3.26B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $0.57B | $0.31B | $3.57B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $0.56B | $0.28B | $3.85B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $0.54B | $0.25B | $4.09B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $0.52B | $0.22B | $4.31B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$6.5B | PV(TV)=$2.7B (39% of EV) | EV=$7.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $7.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $49 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.15%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (1.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $6.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $2.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($4.3B) + PV of TV ($2.7B) = $7.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $7.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $49 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: -2.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.05B | $0.96B | $0.96B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.00B | $0.84B | $1.80B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.98B | $0.75B | $2.55B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.97B | $0.68B | $3.24B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $0.96B | $0.62B | $3.86B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $0.98B | $0.58B | $4.44B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.00B | $0.54B | $4.98B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.02B | $0.51B | $5.48B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.04B | $0.47B | $5.96B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.06B | $0.44B | $6.40B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$15.1B | PV(TV)=$6.3B (50% of EV) | EV=$12.7B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $12.7B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $86 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.15%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $15.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $6.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($6.4B) + PV of TV ($6.3B) = $12.7B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $13.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $86 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.15B | $1.05B | $1.05B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.20B | $1.01B | $2.06B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.27B | $0.98B | $3.04B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.35B | $0.95B | $3.99B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $1.43B | $0.92B | $4.91B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $1.49B | $0.88B | $5.79B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $1.55B | $0.84B | $6.63B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $1.61B | $0.80B | $7.43B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $1.67B | $0.76B | $8.19B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $1.74B | $0.72B | $8.91B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$26.8B | PV(TV)=$11.2B (56% of EV) | EV=$20.1B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $20.1B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $135 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.15%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $26.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $11.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($8.9B) + PV of TV ($11.2B) = $20.1B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $20.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $135 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $117 | $124 | $133 | $143 | $156 |
| 7.6% | $108 | $114 | $120 | $128 | $138 |
| 8.2% | $99 | $103 | $108 | $114 | $121 |
| 8.6% | $93 | $97 | $101 | $106 | $112 |
| 9.1% | $87 | $91 | $94 | $98 | $103 |
| 9.7% | $81 | $84 | $87 | $90 | $94 |
| 10.1% | $78 | $80 | $82 | $85 | $89 |
| 10.6% | $74 | $76 | $78 | $80 | $83 |
| 11.2% | $69 | $71 | $73 | $75 | $77 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qorvo | QRVO | 14.2x | 7.8x | 9.5x | 0.0% | RF peer; no dividend |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | 16.8x | 10.2x | 14.2x | 2.1% | Premium valuation; broader portfolio |
| Broadcom | AVGO | 25.1x | 15.8x | 18.0x | 1.4% | Diversified; AI exposure |
| Texas Instruments | TXN | 28.5x | 16.2x | 24.0x | 2.8% | Analog leader; premium multiple |
| Skyworks (Own History) | SWKS | 11.5x | 8.7x | 7.6x | 5.15% | 5-yr avg P/E: 14.2x — trading at discount |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.840 |
| Current Yield | 5.15% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 12 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +1.8% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +3.8% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +6.6% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +10.0% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 109.0% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 39.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Dividend is Safe despite >100% payout ratio. With $1.1B FCF and only $432M in dividends (39% FCF payout), the dividend is well-covered. The company has raised dividends for 12 consecutive years. Buyback yield of 5.7% adds to total capital return. Monitor Apple revenue concentration — sustained decline could pressure FCF.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $8.97 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $7.81 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $6.13 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.69 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.08 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.95 | $4.78 | $5.17 | 31 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $4.15 | $5.05 | $5.89 | 28 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $5.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $5.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $4.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $4.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.6B | $3.8B | $4.1B | 31 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.4B | $3.9B | $4.2B | 28 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Vinh | Keybanc | Buy | $75 | +35.9% |
| Peter Peng | JP Morgan | Hold | $65 | +17.8% |
| Ruben Roy | Stifel | Hold | $65 | +17.8% |
| Atif Malik | Citigroup | Hold | $63 | +14.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Deep value with yield support: Trading at 11.5x FY26 EPS and 7.6x FCF with 5.15% dividend yield + 5.7% buyback yield = 11% total shareholder yield. Even with declining revenue, shareholders are well-compensated.
- FCF machine despite headwinds: 27% FCF margin is exceptional — company converts nearly $1 out of every $4 in revenue to cash. Balance sheet has net cash. Dividend is 39% of FCF — very safe.
- Secular decline risk is real: Apple in-sourcing, China restrictions, and smartphone saturation create a challenging long-term trajectory. Revenue has fallen 25% from peak with no clear catalyst for reversal.
- Optionality in WiFi 7 / AI smartphones: New content opportunities in WiFi 7, ultra-wideband, and AI-capable devices could stabilize or grow RF content per device even as units decline.
- Value trap warning: Cheap stocks can get cheaper. 13 analysts have a Hold consensus for a reason — this is not a growth story. Suitable for income-focused investors who can tolerate further downside.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2025 (~1 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+283,306 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Skyworks | Senior Management
Prior to joining Skyworks in 2010, Dr. Kasnavi spent 10 years as an investor and executive with Tallwood Venture Capital and was responsible for investments in Inphi (IPHI), Axiom Microdevices, Sequoia Communications and Qu
Prior to joining Skyworks in 2010, Dr. Kasnavi spent 10 years as an investor and executive with Tallwood Venture Capital and was responsible for investments in Inphi (IPHI), Axiom Microdevices, Sequoia Communications and Qu
Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS) Leadership & Management Team
Skyworks Solutions' CEO is Phil Brace, appointed in Feb 2025, has a tenure of 1.08 years. total yearly compensation is $24.88M, comprised of 2.3% salary and 97.7% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly
Skyworks Solutions' CEO is Phil Brace, appointed in Feb 2025, has a tenure of 1.08 years. total yearly compensation is $24.88M, comprised of 2.3% salary and 97.7% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly
Skyworks Solutions Inc Executive & Employee Information - Gl
He also served as Vice President and General Manager of the open market platforms business unit from 2010 to 2018. Prior to joining Skyworks in 2010, he spent 10 years as an investor and executive with Tallwood Venture Capi
He also served as Vice President and General Manager of the open market platforms business unit from 2010 to 2018. Prior to joining Skyworks in 2010, he spent 10 years as an investor and executive with Tallwood Venture Capi
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Skyworks Solutions 2026 Company Profile: Stock Performance &
Information on stock, financials, earnings, subsidiaries, investors, and executives for Skyworks Solutions. Use the PitchBook Platform to explore the full profile.
Information on stock, financials, earnings, subsidiaries, investors, and executives for Skyworks Solutions. Use the PitchBook Platform to explore the full profile.
Who Owns Skyworks Solutions Company? – PortersFiveForce.com
For a concise corporate timeline and earlier ownership context see Brief History of Skyworks Solutions. ... As of 2024–2025 Skyworks Solutions maintains a single-class, one-share-one-vote capital structure and a majority-in
For a concise corporate timeline and earlier ownership context see Brief History of Skyworks Solutions. ... As of 2024–2025 Skyworks Solutions maintains a single-class, one-share-one-vote capital structure and a majority-in
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
197
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Skyworks Solutions - Review | Glassdoor
Aug 27, 2025 · Business systems analyst · Former intern, more than 1 year · Woburn, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Gives you first hand knowledge about shop floor, wafer manufacturing and supply chain related topi
Aug 27, 2025 · Business systems analyst · Former intern, more than 1 year · Woburn, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Gives you first hand knowledge about shop floor, wafer manufacturing and supply chain related topi
Skyworks Solutions - Almost 10 years employed here | Glassdo
Aug 27, 2025 · Business systems analyst · Former intern, more than 1 year · Woburn, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Gives you first hand knowledge about shop floor, wafer manufacturing and supply chain related topi
Aug 27, 2025 · Business systems analyst · Former intern, more than 1 year · Woburn, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Gives you first hand knowledge about shop floor, wafer manufacturing and supply chain related topi
Skyworks Solutions - Company does not care about employees |
Aug 27, 2025 · Business systems analyst · Former intern, more than 1 year · Woburn, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Gives you first hand knowledge about shop floor, wafer manufacturing and supply chain related topi
Aug 27, 2025 · Business systems analyst · Former intern, more than 1 year · Woburn, MA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Gives you first hand knowledge about shop floor, wafer manufacturing and supply chain related topi
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Skyworks Solutions (SWKS)
Current price: $55.19 | Analyst Avg PT: $72.85
$49
🔴 Bear
$86
📊 Base
$135
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$79 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$68 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$51 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$115 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Hold / Accumulate on Weakness — Skyworks is a Stage 6 decline story with exceptional capital returns. The 11% total shareholder yield compensates for secular headwinds, but the Apple concentration risk and in-sourcing threat mean this is not a core holding. Accumulate below $50 (Bear IV) for income; avoid chasing above $60. If Apple announces further RF in-sourcing, reassess entire position. Suitable for ~1% portfolio weight as a high-yield satellite holding.
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | Used FY2025 FCF of $1,107M. FCF has been volatile ($935M→$1,646M→$1,668M→$1,106M) due to working capital swings. Used most recent year as baseline. |
| Discount Rate | WACC 9.15% reflects high beta (1.55) semiconductor exposure. Ke=12.78% but debt brings blended rate down. For DDM reference, using same 9.15% as Ke. |
| Terminal Growth | Low terminal growth (1-2.5%) reflects structural decline in core mobile RF market. Even Bull case assumes modest terminal growth — this is not a growth stock. |
| Apple Risk | Apple represents >50% of revenue and is actively designing in-house RF chips. Each 10% reduction in Apple revenue = ~$200M FCF headwind. Bear case assumes this accelerates. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV targeting $65-70 range, in line with analyst consensus $72.85. Current price $55 implies 30%+ upside to consensus — attractive if decline stabilizes. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.