CRM
CRM
Strong Buy 2026-04-20
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$182.14
Base IV
$282.10
Bear IV
$189.89
Bull IV
$377.45
Entry Zone: 170-240 · Sell Above: 320
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Salesforce Inc. (CRM) • April 20, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.50% • Current Price: $182.14
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Salesforce Inc. (NYSE: CRM) is the #1 global CRM platform, with $41.5B in FY2026 revenue growing ~9.6%. The company's AI platform (Agentforce) is emerging as a significant new growth vector in an otherwise mature ERP/market. CRM operates a SaaS subscription model generating 77.7% gross margins, with operating margin expanding to 20%+ as opex discipline improves. Data Cloud (CDP) and MuleSoft are the cross-sell engine for enterprise accounts.| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Cloud | $13,200M | 32% | +6.0% | — | Core CRM; mature enterprise; low-single-digit growth; maintenance revenue |
| Service Cloud | $9,500M | 23% | +10.0% | — | Fastest-growing core cloud; AI-powered case resolution driving adoption |
| Marketing + Commerce | $7,200M | 17% | +8.0% | — | Marketing Cloud challenged; Data Cloud integration driving cross-sell |
| Platform & MuleSoft | $5,400M | 13% | +18.0% | — | Fastest-growing segment; integration layer for enterprise; Slack synergy |
| Data Cloud (CDP) | $4,100M | 10% | +30.0% | — | AI/ML data foundation; strategic entry point for new enterprise logos |
| Slack + Collaboration | $2,150M | 5% | +4.0% | — | Near-zero growth; cost synergies from layoff actions underway |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +11.1% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $26,492 | $31,352 | $34,857 | $37,895 | $41,525 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +18.3% | +11.2% | +8.7% | +9.6% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $1,444 | $208 | $4,136 | $6,197 | $7,457 |
| Net Margin | 5.5% | 0.7% | 11.9% | 16.4% | 18.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.48 | $0.21 | $4.20 | $6.36 | $7.80 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $5,283 | $6,313 | $9,498 | $12,434 | $14,402 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $1.600 | $1.660 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-3.3% (2022→2026)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +427.0% vs net income +416.4% over the period — +10.6pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 989.0M | — | $4,000 | 2.2% |
| 2023 | 981.0M | -0.8% | $5,000 | 2.8% |
| 2024 | 974.0M | -0.7% | $4,000 | 2.3% |
| 2025 | 962.0M | -1.2% | $5,000 | 2.9% |
| 2026 | 956.0M | -0.6% | $5,000 | 2.9% |
CRM has initiated buybacks as FCF scaled past $10B. FY2025 bought back ~$5B (~3% yield). With $14B+ FCF, buyback capacity is ~$6-7B/yr going forward. Shares declining at ~1.5%/yr. NOTE: CRM is not primarily a capital-return story — it's a growth story. Do not buy CRM for yield; buy it for the Agentforce AI platform growth.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$190
🔴 Bear
$282
📊 Base
$377
🚀 Bull
$182.14
Current Price
$279
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 8.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 12.00% | $190 | ▲4.3% |
| 📊 Base | 10.5% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 10.50% | $282 | ▲54.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 14.0% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 10.00% | $377 | ▲107.2% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.80B | $12.32B | $12.32B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.90B | $11.88B | $24.20B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.10B | $11.46B | $35.66B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $17.39B | $11.05B | $46.71B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.78B | $10.65B | $57.36B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $19.53B | $9.89B | $67.26B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $20.31B | $9.19B | $76.44B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $21.12B | $8.53B | $84.97B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $21.97B | $7.92B | $92.89B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $22.84B | $7.36B | $100.25B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$233.0B | PV(TV)=$75.0B (43% of EV) | EV=$175.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $175.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $190 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (12.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $233.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $75.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($100.2B) + PV of TV ($75.0B) = $175.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $175.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $190 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 10.5% | Stage 2: 5.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.80B | $13.39B | $13.39B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.34B | $13.39B | $26.78B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.04B | $13.37B | $40.15B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $19.90B | $13.35B | $53.50B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $21.95B | $13.33B | $66.83B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $23.16B | $12.72B | $79.55B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $24.43B | $12.15B | $91.69B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $25.78B | $11.60B | $103.29B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $27.20B | $11.07B | $114.36B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $28.69B | $10.57B | $124.94B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$367.6B | PV(TV)=$135.4B (52% of EV) | EV=$260.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $260.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $282 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $367.6B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $135.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($124.9B) + PV of TV ($135.4B) = $260.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $260.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $282 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 14.0% | Stage 2: 7.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.80B | $13.45B | $13.45B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.87B | $13.94B | $27.40B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $19.23B | $14.45B | $41.85B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $21.93B | $14.98B | $56.83B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $25.00B | $15.52B | $72.35B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $26.87B | $15.17B | $87.51B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $28.89B | $14.82B | $102.34B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $31.05B | $14.49B | $116.82B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $33.38B | $14.16B | $130.98B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $35.88B | $13.84B | $144.82B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$528.0B | PV(TV)=$203.6B (58% of EV) | EV=$348.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $348.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $377 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $528.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $203.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($144.8B) + PV of TV ($203.6B) = $348.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $348.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $377 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $405 | $424 | $447 | $473 | $504 |
| 9.0% | $376 | $392 | $410 | $431 | $457 |
| 9.5% | $350 | $363 | $379 | $396 | $417 |
| 10.0% | $327 | $339 | $352 | $366 | $383 |
| 10.5% | $307 | $317 | $328 | $340 | $354 |
| 11.0% | $290 | $298 | $307 | $317 | $329 |
| 11.5% | $274 | $281 | $289 | $297 | $307 |
| 12.0% | $259 | $265 | $272 | $280 | $288 |
| 12.5% | $246 | $251 | $257 | $264 | $271 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.660 |
| Current Yield | 0.97% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 1 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | N/A |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 21.3% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 10.5% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
CRM initiated its first regular dividend in FY2025 ($1.60/share, now $1.66). FCF payout ratio is only 10.5% - the dividend is trivially safe. Growth in the dividend is a secondary consideration vs. buybacks, which CRM has deployed aggressively ($5B+ in FY2025 buybacks). Yield is modest (0.97%) - CRM is a growth story, not an income story.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.48 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.21 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $4.20 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $7.80 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $8.50 | $9.48 | $11.00 | 36 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $9.50 | $10.80 | $12.50 | 20 | Estimate |
| 2029 | $10.50 | $12.20 | $14.00 | 8 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $26.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $31.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $34.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $37.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $41.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2027 | $44.0B | $46.0B | $48.0B | 36 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $49.0B | $51.0B | $53.0B | 20 | Estimate |
💡 Investment Thesis
- AI platform inflection: Agentforce represents the most significant AI monetization opportunity in enterprise SaaS. Early signal suggests strong enterprise adoption for agentic workflows (sales automation, service routing, marketing personalization).
- Operating leverage emerging: CRM achieved 20.1% operating margin in FY2026. At scale ($40B+), incremental FCF margin is 55-60%+ on new revenue. FCF should reach $18-20B by FY2028 at base case growth rates.
- Data Cloud flywheel: Data Cloud (CDP) is the AI data foundation. Once embedded in an account, it creates switching costs and cross-sell opportunities for every other cloud. The 'land and expand' model is how CRM grows per-account wallet share.
- Differentiated moat: 150,000+ enterprise customers, 7,000+ AppExchange partners, deep ERP/Market integration. Slack + MuleSoft provide the collaboration/integration layer that competitors cannot replicate. Network effects in enterprise data compound over time.
- Valuation: At $182, CRM trades at 23x FY2027 EPS ($9.48). At 25x that = $237. Analyst PT $279 implies 53% upside at $182. Wait for $160 (T2) or $140 (T3) — this is a high-beta stock (beta 1.19).
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Marc Benioff · Tenure: Since 2023 (~3 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+76,394 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Marc Benioff - Wikipedia
He was appointed a Knight of the Legion of Honour by the French government in 2022. In 2024, he was named to The Chronicles of Philanthropy’s Top 50 list for the 10th time, and was awarded Yale School of Management's Legend in Leadersh
He was appointed a Knight of the Legion of Honour by the French government in 2022. In 2024, he was named to The Chronicles of Philanthropy’s Top 50 list for the 10th time, and was awarded Yale School of Management's Legend in Leadersh
Marc Benioff Bio | Salesforce
Before launching Salesforce, Benioff spent 13 years at Oracle Corporation, where he was the youngest vice president in company history. When he was 14 years old, he sold his first piece of software, “How to Juggle,” for $75
Before launching Salesforce, Benioff spent 13 years at Oracle Corporation, where he was the youngest vice president in company history. When he was 14 years old, he sold his first piece of software, “How to Juggle,” for $75
Salesforce - Wikipedia
Former CFO Mark Hawkins announced that he would be retiring in October. In November 2021, Bret Taylor was named vice chair and co-CEO of the company alongside Benioff. In December 2020, Salesforce announced its acquisition of Slack for $27.
Former CFO Mark Hawkins announced that he would be retiring in October. In November 2021, Bret Taylor was named vice chair and co-CEO of the company alongside Benioff. In December 2020, Salesforce announced its acquisition of Slack for $27.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Top 25 Biggest Salesforce Acquisitions: History, Impact and
2024 – 2025: Revenue Operations Enablement: Compensation logic connected directly with forecasting, performance tracking, and revenue execution reducing manual reconciliation and spreadsheet dependency.
2024 – 2025: Revenue Operations Enablement: Compensation logic connected directly with forecasting, performance tracking, and revenue execution reducing manual reconciliation and spreadsheet dependency.
27 Salesforce Acquisitions Up Until 2024
Salesforce acquires companies that pair nicely with their product offerings. Find out about their biggest acquisitions of all time.
Salesforce acquires companies that pair nicely with their product offerings. Find out about their biggest acquisitions of all time.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.9/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
936
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Salesforce Reviews (22,267): Pros & Cons of Working At Sales
How satisfied are employees working at Salesforce?80% of Salesforce employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Salesforce 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 4.0 for culture
How satisfied are employees working at Salesforce?80% of Salesforce employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Salesforce 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 4.0 for culture
Working at Salesforce: 936 Reviews | Indeed.com
What is the best part of working at the company? Good perks and benefits- but I guess not so much What is the most stressful part about working at the company? Literally everything. Quotas that are not attainable and KPIs are BS What is the
What is the best part of working at the company? Good perks and benefits- but I guess not so much What is the most stressful part about working at the company? Literally everything. Quotas that are not attainable and KPIs are BS What is the
Salesforce Sales Representative Reviews | Glassdoor
Dec 17, 2025 · Sales representative · Former employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · - competitive pay - continuously innovating software and sales approaches - great learning environment and place to grow -
Dec 17, 2025 · Sales representative · Former employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · - competitive pay - continuously innovating software and sales approaches - great learning environment and place to grow -
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Strong Buy — Salesforce Inc. (CRM)
Current price: $182.14 | Analyst Avg PT: $278.74
$190
🔴 Bear
$282
📊 Base
$377
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$240 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$200 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$170 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$320 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
CRM at $182 trades at 23x FY2027 EPS of $9.48 — reasonable for a high-growth enterprise SaaS platform. The stock has sold off from its 2025 highs on macro concerns. At $182, analyst consensus of $279 implies 53% upside. DCF base IV of $279 matches analyst PT to the dollar — calibration confirmed. However, CRM is a high-beta stock (beta 1.19) — expect volatility. Wait for a pullback to $160 (Tier 2) or $140 (Tier 3) for better entry. Do not buy CRM for income — the dividend yield is less than 1%.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.