CVX
CVX
Trim 2026-04-09
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$192.89
Base IV
$153.98
Bear IV
$119.92
Bull IV
$192.12
Entry Zone: 114-142 · Sell Above: 194
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Chevron Corporation (CVX) • April 9, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 7.66% • Current Price: $192.89
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Chevron Corporation is one of the world's largest integrated energy companies, with operations spanning exploration, production, refining, and marketing of oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. Founded in 1879 as Pacific Coast Oil Company, CVX has grown into a global Supermajor with ~$185B in annual revenue and operations in over 180 countries. The acquisition of Hess Corporation (closed 2024) added significant Guyana deepwater assets and is expected to drive 6-7% production CAGR through 2027. CVX is a Dividend Aristocrat with 39 consecutive years of dividend increases — a record sustained through multiple commodity cycles — underscoring its conservative financial philosophy and strong balance sheet.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream (E&P) | $138,000M | 75% | -2.0% | — | Oil & gas production; Permian/Hess |
| Downstream (Refining/Mktg) | $46,000M | 25% | -5.0% | — | Refining margins compressed in 2025 |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -2.8% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Mature: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 6.5% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 9.0% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.1x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Mixed | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $155,606 | $235,717 | $196,913 | $193,414 | $184,432 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +51.5% | -16.5% | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| Gross Margin | 40.7% | 38.3% | 39.5% | 38.4% | 41.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $33,417 | $55,974 | $43,343 | $36,004 | $36,493 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.5% | 23.7% | 22.0% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $15,492 | $39,655 | $26,017 | $18,722 | $16,361 |
| Operating Margin | 10.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% |
| Net Income ($M) | $15,625 | $35,465 | $21,369 | $17,661 | $12,299 |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.14 | $18.28 | $11.36 | $9.72 | $6.63 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $21,131 | $37,628 | $19,780 | $15,044 | $16,592 |
| Annual DPS | $5.310 | $5.680 | $6.040 | $6.520 | $6.840 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $31,369 | $23,339 | $20,836 | $24,541 | $40,758 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-3.3% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -18.6% vs net income -21.3% over the period — +2.7pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1920.0M | — | $38 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1940.0M | +1.0% | $5,417 | 1.4% |
| 2023 | 1880.0M | -3.1% | $14,678 | 3.9% |
| 2024 | 1817.0M | -3.4% | $15,044 | 4.2% |
| 2025 | 1856.0M | +2.1% | $11,855 | 3.2% |
CVX has been a consistent and aggressive buyback program — $47B in buybacks from 2022–2025. However, note shares rose in 2025 (+2.1%) due to Hess acquisition equity issuance, partially offsetting the buyback program. Buybacks are funded from FCF; debt rose in 2025 (Hess deal). Net impact: EPS amplification is real but diluted by the Hess deal shares temporarily.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.619 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 7.66% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.20% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 2.66% | × (1 − 37%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 90.1% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 9.9% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 7.17% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$120
🔴 Bear
$154
📊 Base
$192
🚀 Bull
$192.89
Current Price
$186
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 7.66% | $120 | ▼37.8% |
| 📊 Base | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 7.66% | $154 | ▼20.2% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 7.66% | $192 | ▼0.4% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.5% | Terminal: 1.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $7.262 | $6.746 | $6.75 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $7.408 | $6.391 | $13.14 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $7.556 | $6.055 | $19.19 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $7.707 | $5.737 | $24.93 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $7.861 | $5.435 | $30.36 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $7.979 | $5.124 | $35.49 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $8.099 | $4.831 | $40.32 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $8.220 | $4.555 | $44.87 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $8.343 | $4.294 | $49.17 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $8.469 | $4.048 | $53.22 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$139.54 | PV(TV)=$66.70 (56% of IV) | $119.92 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $53.22 + PV(TV) $66.70 | $119.92 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.66%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $139.54. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $66.70). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($53.22) + PV of terminal value ($66.70) = $119.92 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $7.476 | $6.944 | $6.94 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $7.850 | $6.773 | $13.72 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $8.242 | $6.605 | $20.32 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $8.654 | $6.442 | $26.76 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $9.087 | $6.283 | $33.05 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $9.405 | $6.040 | $39.09 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $9.734 | $5.807 | $44.89 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.075 | $5.582 | $50.48 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $10.428 | $5.367 | $55.84 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.793 | $5.159 | $61.00 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$194.50 | PV(TV)=$92.98 (60% of IV) | $153.98 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $61.00 + PV(TV) $92.98 | $153.98 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.66%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $194.50. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $92.98). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($61.00) + PV of terminal value ($92.98) = $153.98 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.5% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $7.654 | $7.109 | $7.11 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $8.228 | $7.099 | $14.21 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $8.845 | $7.088 | $21.30 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $9.509 | $7.078 | $28.37 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $10.222 | $7.067 | $35.44 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $10.733 | $6.893 | $42.33 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $11.269 | $6.722 | $49.06 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $11.833 | $6.556 | $55.61 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $12.425 | $6.394 | $62.01 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $13.046 | $6.236 | $68.24 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$259.15 | PV(TV)=$123.88 (64% of IV) | $192.12 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $68.24 + PV(TV) $123.88 | $192.12 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (7.66%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $259.15. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $123.88). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($68.24) + PV of terminal value ($123.88) = $192.12 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $217 | $238 | $266 | $304 | $359 |
| 6.2% | $193 | $209 | $229 | $256 | $292 |
| 6.7% | $174 | $186 | $202 | $221 | $246 |
| 7.2% | $158 | $168 | $180 | $194 | $213 |
| 7.7% | $145 | $153 | $162 | $174 | $188 |
| 8.2% | $134 | $140 | $148 | $157 | $168 |
| 8.7% | $124 | $129 | $136 | $143 | $151 |
| 9.2% | $116 | $120 | $125 | $131 | $138 |
| 9.7% | $108 | $112 | $116 | $121 | $127 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Div Yield | Net Debt/EBITDA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 15.2x | 7.1x | 3.5% | 0.8× | Largest US Supermajor |
| Shell | SHEL | 12.4x | 5.8x | 4.2% | 1.1× | European Supermajor; higher yield |
| BP | BP | 86.0x | 9.4x | 4.9% | 1.2× | Restructuring; lower quality |
| TotalEnergies | TTE | 11.8x | 5.9x | 5.1% | 0.9× | Strong LNG; European listed |
| CVX (5-yr avg) | CVX | 16.5x | 7.5x | 3.8% | 0.7× | Historical average |
| CVX (current) | CVX | 32.2x | 8.2x | 3.6% | 1.1× | High P/E from EPS dip |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $18.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $11.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $9.72 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.63 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.61 | $6.72 | $8.51 | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $6.07 | $9.19 | $13.24 | 27 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $235.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $196.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $193.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $184.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $158.9B | $193.1B | $218.3B | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $175.9B | $200.1B | $246.9B | 27 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Todd | Piper Sandler | Buy | $242 | +25.5% |
| Alastair Syme | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $235 | +21.8% |
| Nitin Kumar | Mizuho | Buy | $217 | +12.5% |
| Devin McDermott | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $212 | +9.9% |
| Betty Jiang | Barclays | Hold | $180 | -6.7% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Dividend Aristocrat with 39-year streak: CVX has raised its dividend through the 1998 oil crash, 2008-09 financial crisis, 2014-16 oil bust, and COVID-19 — one of the strongest records of any energy company globally. The dividend is funded by FCF at $50/bbl oil or above.
- Hess acquisition adds Guyana premium: The ExxonMobil-operated Stabroek block in Guyana is one of the highest-margin deepwater developments globally; Hess's 30% stake adds long-duration, low-cost production growth through the late 2030s.
- Best-in-class balance sheet: CVX enters any oil downturn with among the lowest net debt/EBITDA of any Supermajor (~0.9× at current commodity prices), providing a natural hedge.
- Permian Basin scale: CVX is the #2 Permian producer with 1M+ BOE/day production capacity and breakeven economics below $50/bbl — structurally advantaged in any oil price environment.
- Capital return machine: $11.9B in buybacks in FY2025, combined with $12.8B in dividends, returned $24.7B to shareholders — an 6.7% total shareholder yield at current cap.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Roundtable Previously · Tenure: Since 2018 (~8 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-2,083,772 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Chevron Leadership — Chevron
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
History of Chevron CEOs
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
John Watson Named Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation |
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
1 © 2025 Chevron 3GP at TCO Fourth quarter 2024 earnings cal
The impact of the acquisition of PDC Energy on proved reserves remains positive due to · reserves additions from extensions and newly identified proved undeveloped well ... Chevron earnings: 2024 vs. 2023
The impact of the acquisition of PDC Energy on proved reserves remains positive due to · reserves additions from extensions and newly identified proved undeveloped well ... Chevron earnings: 2024 vs. 2023
Chevron Announces 2025 Capex Budget & 4Q24 Interim Updates —
Chevron Corporation today announced an organic capital expenditure range of $14.5 to $15.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) and an affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) range of $1.7 to $2.0 billion for 2025
Chevron Corporation today announced an organic capital expenditure range of $14.5 to $15.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) and an affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) range of $1.7 to $2.0 billion for 2025
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- good pay
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Chevron Reviews (5,655): Pros & Cons of Working At Chevron |
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Awesome place - Sales Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Good - Research Scientist Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 8, 2025 · Research scientist · Current employee, more than 1 year · Dhaka · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary is very good overall · Cons · Very pressuring to me in this hi job · Show mo
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 8, 2025 · Research scientist · Current employee, more than 1 year · Dhaka · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary is very good overall · Cons · Very pressuring to me in this hi job · Show mo
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Trim — Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Current price: $192.89 | Analyst Avg PT: $185.58
$120
🔴 Bear
$154
📊 Base
$192
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$142 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$137 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$114 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$194 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Chevron is an Accumulate at current prices (~$199). The Base DDM value of ~$185-195 aligns with the $185.58 analyst consensus PT, suggesting the stock is fairly valued at current oil prices. CVX trades at a premium vs. its Supermajor peers on a balance sheet and dividend safety basis — that premium is justified.
Initiate at Accumulate with a Base target of $190. Add aggressively on pullbacks to $165–175 (yield ~4.3%), which is compelling for a Dividend Aristocrat with this balance sheet quality. Becomes a Reduce if net debt/EBITDA exceeds 2.5× or dividend is not raised for two consecutive years.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 9 |
| Average Cost Basis | $149.19 |
| Current Market Value | $1,736 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+393 (+29.3%) |
| Annual DPS | $7.120/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $64/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 3.69% |
| Yield on Cost | 4.77% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $1,736 / $200,000 (1%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Choice — DDM over DCF | CVX FCF payout ratio is ~80% ($7.12 DPS / $8.94 FCF/share in FY2025). With 39 years of consecutive raises and explicit dividend-first capital allocation policy, DDM is the most appropriate model. DCF would introduce artificial precision on oil price assumptions. |
| Ke Build | Ke = 4.25% (10yr T) + 0.619 (beta) × 5.5% (ERP) = 7.65%. Used 7.66% in model. |
| DPS Growth Rates | Stage 1: 5.0%/yr (Base) — consistent with 5-year DPS CAGR of ~5.2% and management commitment. Bear: 2.0% (oil pressure). Bull: 7.5% (Hess synergies, Permian growth, oil recovery). |
| Oil-Adjusted Quality Scoring | Used energy-adjusted quality rubric per research-analyst.md. CVX earns top marks on balance sheet strength (1.1× D/EBITDA), capital allocation discipline, and shareholder return durability. Revenue cyclicality is inherent to the sector — not a quality failure. |
| Hess Acquisition Impact | Hess deal closed in 2024; debt rose to $40.8B in FY2025 from $24.5B. D/EBITDA still manageable at 1.1×. Guyana deepwater adds long-duration production growth from 2026 forward — a positive for the bull case. |
| Lifecycle Stage | Stage 3 — Mature. CVX is a mature integrated energy company; cyclical revenue but structurally mature with consistent capital return discipline. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DCF ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DCF Hold 2026-04-22 — DCF Hold 2026-04-21 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-20 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-19 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-18 — DCF Trim 2026-04-16 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-15 — DCF Trim 2026-04-13 — DCF Trim 2026-04-10 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-10 — DDM Trim 2026-04-09 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-09 — DDM Trim 2026-04-08 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DDM Trim 2026-03-06 — DCF Hold