CVX
CVX
Accumulate 2026-04-19
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$183.99
Base IV
$197.62
Bear IV
$122.17
Bull IV
$285.95
Entry Zone: 130-170 · Sell Above: 240
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Chevron Corporation (CVX) • April 19, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 7.50% • Current Price: $183.99
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is the second-largest US integrated energy company by market capitalization, operating across every segment of the oil and gas value chain: upstream exploration and production (E&P), downstream refining and marketing, and a growing advantaged renewables portfolio. With ~3.5 million boe/d of production and operations in every major US basin plus international positions in Australia, Kazakhstan, and the Gulf of Mexico, CVX is a core holding for energy-sector exposure.
CVX is the premier US major on balance sheet quality — it carries net cash (cash exceeds debt), sports a 3.7% dividend yield, and has raised dividends for 38 consecutive years. The pending Hess acquisition adds world-class Guyana assets and positions CVX for the next decade of production growth. At $183.99, the stock trades near its 52-week range, offering an attractive entry for a high-quality energy major with visible capital return programs.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream E&P | $36,000M | 20% | +5.0% | — | Conventional + tight oil; Permian, GOM, Australia, Kazakhstan |
| Downstream R&M | $140,000M | 76% | +1.0% | — | Refining, marketing, additives, retail network |
| New Energies / Other | $4,000M | 4% | +10.0% | — | Renewables: RNG, geothermal, hydrogen, EV charging |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +2.2% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Mature / Integrated Energy: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $155,606 | $235,717 | $196,913 | $193,414 | $184,432 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +51.5% | -16.5% | -1.8% | -4.6% |
| Gross Margin | 40.7% | 38.3% | 39.5% | 38.4% | 41.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $33,417 | $55,974 | $43,343 | $36,004 | $36,493 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.5% | 23.7% | 22.0% | 18.6% | 19.8% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $15,492 | $39,655 | $26,017 | $18,722 | $16,361 |
| Operating Margin | 10.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 8.9% |
| Net Income ($M) | $15,625 | $35,465 | $21,369 | $17,661 | $12,299 |
| Net Margin | 10.0% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.14 | $18.28 | $11.36 | $9.72 | $6.63 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $21,131 | $37,628 | $19,780 | $15,044 | $16,592 |
| Annual DPS | $5.310 | $5.680 | $6.040 | $6.520 | $6.840 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.500 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 7.00% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 2.80% | × (1 − 30%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 91.0% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 9.0% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 7.50% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$122
🔴 Bear
$198
📊 Base
$286
🚀 Bull
$183.99
Current Price
$188
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -5.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | 7.50% | $122 | ▼33.6% |
| 📊 Base | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 7.50% | $198 | ▲7.4% |
| 🚀 Bull | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 7.50% | $286 | ▲55.4% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -5.0% | Stage 2: 0.0% | Terminal: 1.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.00B | $12.09B | $12.09B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.50B | $11.68B | $23.78B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.00B | $11.27B | $35.04B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.50B | $10.86B | $45.90B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $15.00B | $10.45B | $56.35B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $15.00B | $9.72B | $66.07B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $15.00B | $9.04B | $75.11B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $15.00B | $8.41B | $83.52B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $15.00B | $7.82B | $91.35B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $15.00B | $7.28B | $98.62B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$253.7B | PV(TV)=$123.1B (56% of EV) | EV=$221.7B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $221.7B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $122 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $253.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $123.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($98.6B) + PV of TV ($123.1B) = $221.7B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $226.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $122 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $17.00B | $15.81B | $15.81B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $18.50B | $16.01B | $31.82B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $19.50B | $15.70B | $47.52B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $20.50B | $15.35B | $62.87B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $21.50B | $14.98B | $77.85B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $22.04B | $14.28B | $92.13B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $22.59B | $13.62B | $105.74B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $23.15B | $12.98B | $118.72B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $23.73B | $12.38B | $131.10B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $24.33B | $11.80B | $142.90B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$451.1B | PV(TV)=$218.9B (61% of EV) | EV=$361.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $361.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $198 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $451.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $218.9B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($142.9B) + PV of TV ($218.9B) = $361.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $366.8B, divided by shares outstanding = $198 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $20.00B | $18.60B | $18.60B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $22.50B | $19.47B | $38.07B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $24.00B | $19.32B | $57.39B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $25.50B | $19.09B | $76.49B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $27.00B | $18.81B | $95.30B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $28.35B | $18.37B | $113.66B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $29.77B | $17.94B | $131.61B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $31.26B | $17.53B | $149.13B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $32.82B | $17.12B | $166.25B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $34.46B | $16.72B | $182.97B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$706.4B | PV(TV)=$342.8B (65% of EV) | EV=$525.7B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $525.7B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $286 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $706.4B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $342.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($183.0B) + PV of TV ($342.8B) = $525.7B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $530.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $286 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $255 | $281 | $315 | $364 | $436 |
| 6.0% | $226 | $246 | $271 | $304 | $350 |
| 6.5% | $204 | $219 | $237 | $261 | $292 |
| 7.0% | $185 | $197 | $211 | $229 | $251 |
| 7.5% | $170 | $179 | $190 | $204 | $221 |
| 8.0% | $157 | $164 | $173 | $184 | $197 |
| 8.5% | $145 | $152 | $159 | $167 | $178 |
| 9.0% | $136 | $141 | $147 | $154 | $162 |
| 9.5% | $127 | $131 | $136 | $142 | $149 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $8.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $18.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $11.36 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $9.72 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $6.63 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $4.61 | $8.64 | $16.41 | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $6.07 | $9.64 | $15.05 | 27 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $155.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $235.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $196.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $193.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $184.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $176.4B | $217.9B | $291.7B | 28 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $177.6B | $208.7B | $248.0B | 27 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alastair Syme | Citigroup | Strong Buy | $235 | +27.7% |
| Sam Margolin | Wells Fargo | Buy | $222 | +20.7% |
| Biraj Borkhataria | RBC Capital | Buy | $220 | +19.6% |
| Devin McDermott | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $212 | +15.2% |
| Lucas Herrmann | BNP Paribas | Buy | $174 | -5.4% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Net cash, fortress balance sheet: CVX holds net cash (~$5B excess cash vs. debt). In a commodity downturn, this provides a cushion that XOM and BP lack. The dividend and buyback program are fully funded even in a sub-$60 oil scenario.
- Hess acquisition upside: The Hess deal brings ~170k boe/d of low-breakeven production (Guyana: $40-45/bbl breakeven), Marathon arbitration resolution, and a potential ~$2-3/share FCF accretion by 2027. The deal has cleared major regulatory hurdles.
- Compelling FCF yield: At normalized FCF of $17-20B, CVX generates ~$9-11/share in FCF. The stock trades at ~2.4-2.8% FCF yield — a significant free cash flow return in a world where energy investors are starved for yield.
- Buyback velocity: CVX has been repurchasing $8-10B/yr of stock, which at current prices meaningfully adjusts the per-share metrics. At $183.99 vs. $150, the buyback program is less accretive but still EPS-dilutive in a positive way.
- 38 years of dividend raises: CVX is a Dividend Aristocrat with a 3.7% yield. The dividend is covered 3-4x by FCF in bear case. Energy sector alternative to utilities for income-focused portfolios.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Roundtable Previously · Tenure: Since 2018 (~8 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-2,083,772 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
History of Chevron CEOs
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
Demetrius G. Scofield served as the first CEO of Standard Oil Co. of California (later Chevron).
Chevron Leadership — Chevron
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
Mark A. Nelson*^ Vice Chairman Eimear P. Bonner*^ Chief Financial Officer T. Ryder Booth*^ Chief Technology and Engineering Officer Jeff B. Gustavson*^ President, New Energies R. Hewitt Pate*^ Chief Legal Officer Robert Clay Neff^ President
John Watson Named Chairman and CEO of Chevron Corporation |
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Chevron Research Co. in 1968 after earning his bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering from ... Dublin. Over the course of his 41-year career, O’Reilly held a range of senior-level positions across the company.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
1 © 2025 Chevron 3GP at TCO Fourth quarter 2024 earnings cal
The impact of the acquisition of PDC Energy on proved reserves remains positive due to · reserves additions from extensions and newly identified proved undeveloped well ... Chevron earnings: 2024 vs. 2023
The impact of the acquisition of PDC Energy on proved reserves remains positive due to · reserves additions from extensions and newly identified proved undeveloped well ... Chevron earnings: 2024 vs. 2023
Chevron Announces $16 billion 2024 Capex Budget — Chevron
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) today announced an expected organic capital expenditure range of $15.5 to $16.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) and an affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) budget of approxima
Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) today announced an expected organic capital expenditure range of $15.5 to $16.5 billion for consolidated subsidiaries (capex) and an affiliate capital expenditure (affiliate capex) budget of approxima
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- good pay
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Chevron Reviews (5,655): Pros & Cons of Working At Chevron |
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Chevron has an employee rating of 3.7 out of 5 stars, based on 5,655 company reviews on Glassdoor which indicates that most employees have a good working experience there.
Awesome place - Sales Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 25, 2025 · Sales · Current employee · Texas City, TX · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Amazing staff there to work eith · Cons · Bad pay to some degree · Show more · Sign in
Good - Research Scientist Chevron Employee Review
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 8, 2025 · Research scientist · Current employee, more than 1 year · Dhaka · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary is very good overall · Cons · Very pressuring to me in this hi job · Show mo
Chevron reviews · 5.0 · Apr 8, 2025 · Research scientist · Current employee, more than 1 year · Dhaka · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary is very good overall · Cons · Very pressuring to me in this hi job · Show mo
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Chevron Corporation (CVX)
Current price: $183.99 | Analyst Avg PT: $187.52
$122
🔴 Bear
$198
📊 Base
$286
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$170 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$155 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$130 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$240 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Accumulate. At $183.99, the shares trade meaningfully below the base-case value of $198, implying roughly 7% upside to fair value. Starter zone is $170 or below, with more aggressive adds on deeper weakness.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 9.6 |
| Average Cost Basis | $149.19 |
| Current Market Value | $1,766 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+334 (+23.3%) |
| Annual DPS | $6.840/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $66/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 3.72% |
| Yield on Cost | 4.58% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $1,766 / $200,000 (1%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| FCF Base | FY2025 FCF $16.6B is normalized — slightly above the 4-year average of $15.6B due to lower maintenance capex in a transition year. Use $16.5B as the base. FY2022 FCF ($37.6B) was inflated by working capital and high commodity prices — not representative. |
| WACC | Beta 0.50 (5-yr monthly vs. energy sector); Ke=7.0% (Rf=4.25%, β=0.50, ERP=5.5%); Kd=2.8% post-tax. Low debt weight (9%) — net cash position. WACC=7.5% is appropriate for a high-quality energy major with a 3.7% dividend and disciplined capital allocation. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$186 vs analyst PT $187.52 — within 1%. (PASS despite override). Bear IV ~$130 (meaningful downside if oil collapses). Bull IV ~$238 (strong upside in high-oil scenario). |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DCF ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DCF Hold 2026-04-22 — DCF Hold 2026-04-21 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-20 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-19 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-18 — DCF Trim 2026-04-16 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-15 — DCF Trim 2026-04-13 — DCF Trim 2026-04-10 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-10 — DDM Trim 2026-04-09 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-09 — DDM Trim 2026-04-08 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DCF Reduce 2026-04-07 — DDM Trim 2026-03-06 — DCF Hold