MDLZ
MDLZ
Accumulate 2026-04-07
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$58.21
Base IV
$72.01
Bear IV
$50.71
Bull IV
$111.27
Entry Zone: 48-66 · Sell Above: 95
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Mondelez International (MDLZ) • April 7, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 6.80% • Current Price: $58.21
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Mondelez International is a global snacking and chocolate company. FY2025 revenue $38.5B (+5.75%) was pressured by record cocoa inflation, compressing gross margin to 28.4% (from 39% prior year). Recovery expected 2H 2026.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chocolate & Gum | $12,000M | 31% | -8.0% | — | Hardest hit by cocoa inflation |
| Biscuits | $9,500M | 25% | +2.0% | — | Stable defensive |
| Crackers & Candy | $8,800M | 23% | +4.0% | — | Mixed |
| Beverage / Other | $7,700M | 20% | +8.0% | — | Higher growth |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +0.5% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Mature Growth: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-7.9% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1392.0M | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 1347.0M | -3.2% | $24 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 1282.0M | -4.8% | $25 | 0.0% |
Consistent ~1% annual share reduction. Buyback yield ~3.6% on market cap.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$51
🔴 Bear
$72
📊 Base
$111
🚀 Bull
$58.21
Current Price
$66
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 6.80% | $51 | ▼12.9% |
| 📊 Base | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 6.80% | $72 | ▲23.7% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 6.80% | $111 | ▲91.1% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 2.0% | Terminal: 2.4%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.10B | $2.90B | $2.90B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.20B | $2.81B | $5.71B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.35B | $2.75B | $8.46B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.50B | $2.69B | $11.15B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.65B | $2.63B | $13.78B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.72B | $2.51B | $16.28B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.80B | $2.40B | $18.68B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.87B | $2.29B | $20.97B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.95B | $2.19B | $23.15B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.03B | $2.09B | $25.24B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$93.8B | PV(TV)=$48.6B (66% of EV) | EV=$73.8B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $73.8B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $51 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.80%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.4%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $93.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $48.6B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($25.2B) + PV of TV ($48.6B) = $73.8B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $65.8B, divided by shares outstanding = $51 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0% | Stage 2: 3.0% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.40B | $3.18B | $3.18B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.65B | $3.20B | $6.38B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.95B | $3.24B | $9.63B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.25B | $3.27B | $12.89B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.57B | $3.29B | $16.18B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.71B | $3.17B | $19.35B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $4.85B | $3.06B | $22.41B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $4.99B | $2.95B | $25.36B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $5.14B | $2.85B | $28.21B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $5.30B | $2.74B | $30.95B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$136.2B | PV(TV)=$70.5B (69% of EV) | EV=$101.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $101.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $72 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.80%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $136.2B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $70.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($31.0B) + PV of TV ($70.5B) = $101.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $93.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $72 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.2%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.70B | $3.46B | $3.46B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.15B | $3.64B | $7.10B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.70B | $3.86B | $10.96B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.30B | $4.07B | $15.03B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.95B | $4.28B | $19.32B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.25B | $4.21B | $23.53B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.56B | $4.14B | $27.67B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $6.89B | $4.07B | $31.74B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.23B | $4.00B | $35.74B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.59B | $3.93B | $39.67B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$217.7B | PV(TV)=$112.8B (74% of EV) | EV=$152.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $152.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $111 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (6.80%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $217.7B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $112.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($39.7B) + PV of TV ($112.8B) = $152.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $144.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $111 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.8% | $85 | $98 | $115 | $143 | $193 |
| 5.3% | $73 | $82 | $94 | $111 | $137 |
| 5.8% | $63 | $70 | $78 | $90 | $106 |
| 6.3% | $56 | $61 | $67 | $75 | $86 |
| 6.8% | $50 | $54 | $59 | $65 | $72 |
| 7.3% | $45 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $62 |
| 7.8% | $41 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| 8.3% | $37 | $39 | $42 | $44 | $48 |
| 8.8% | $34 | $36 | $38 | $40 | $43 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.96 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.62 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.42 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.89 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.86 | $3.10 | $3.24 | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.19 | $3.45 | $3.79 | 28 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.0B | $0.0B | $0.0B | 28 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Bernstein | Buy | $73 | +25.4% |
| Morgan Stanley | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $70 | +20.3% |
| Wells Fargo | Wells Fargo | Buy | $70 | +20.3% |
| Deutsche Bank | Deutsche Bank | Hold | $54 | -7.2% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- FY2025 margin compressed to 28.4% by cocoa costs; recovery likely 2H 2026 as prices normalize
- FCF stable at $3.2B (8.4% margin); sustainable dividend with ~50% normalized payout
- Low-beta (0.38) defensive staple; 12-year dividend growth streak at 7.4% CAGR
- Analyst consensus Buy $66.33 (+14% upside); current $58 attractive
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Irene Rosenfeld · Tenure: Since 2017 (~9 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+1,806,310 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Dirk Van de Put to Become CEO of Mondelēz International as L
And he has achieved these results with a values-based leadership style and steadfast focus on people." Van de Put brings nearly 30 years of experience in the food and consumer package industry to this new leadership ro
And he has achieved these results with a values-based leadership style and steadfast focus on people." Van de Put brings nearly 30 years of experience in the food and consumer package industry to this new leadership ro
Dirk Van de Put - Wikipedia
Dirk Van de Put (born 14 May 1960) is a Belgian businessman, and the chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of Mondelez International. CEO since November 2017, he also became chairman in April 2018. Van de Put is a nati
Dirk Van de Put (born 14 May 1960) is a Belgian businessman, and the chairman and chief executive officer (CEO) of Mondelez International. CEO since November 2017, he also became chairman in April 2018. Van de Put is a nati
Mondelez CEO Dirk Van de Put A “Golden Opportunity”
109 on Chief Executive and RHR International’s CEO1000 Tracker, a ranking of top 1,000 CEOs of public and private companies. Rosenfeld’s leadership of the company spanned 11 years, first as CEO of Kraft Foods Group, then as
109 on Chief Executive and RHR International’s CEO1000 Tracker, a ranking of top 1,000 CEOs of public and private companies. Rosenfeld’s leadership of the company spanned 11 years, first as CEO of Kraft Foods Group, then as
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Mondelēz International Reports Q3 2025 Results | Mondelēz In
The company’s agreement with the buyer of its developed market gum business to distribute gum products in certain European markets ended in the first quarter of 2024. Acquisition-related items – includes acquisition-related costs, acquisiti
The company’s agreement with the buyer of its developed market gum business to distribute gum products in certain European markets ended in the first quarter of 2024. Acquisition-related items – includes acquisition-related costs, acquisiti
Mondelez International's Selective M&A Strategy
M&A Strategy Shift: Mondelez International (MDLZ) plans to adopt a selective M&A strategy in 2023, with management viewing acquisitions as a tool to support its snacking strategy, although high valuations limit the
M&A Strategy Shift: Mondelez International (MDLZ) plans to adopt a selective M&A strategy in 2023, with management viewing acquisitions as a tool to support its snacking strategy, although high valuations limit the
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.5/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
2,445
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- strong leadership
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Mondelēz International Reviews (4,730): Pros & Cons of Worki
How satisfied are employees working at Mondelēz International?74% of Mondelēz International employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Mondelēz International 3.5 out of 5 for work li
How satisfied are employees working at Mondelēz International?74% of Mondelēz International employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Mondelēz International 3.5 out of 5 for work li
Working at Mondelēz International: 2,445 Reviews | Indeed.co
2,445 reviews from Mondelēz International employees about Mondelēz International culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
2,445 reviews from Mondelēz International employees about Mondelēz International culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Mondelēz International Intern Reviews | Glassdoor
Sua percepção é valiosa e será ... Former employee, less than 1 year · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Freedom to explore ideas and collaborative culture....
Sua percepção é valiosa e será ... Former employee, less than 1 year · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Freedom to explore ideas and collaborative culture....
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Mondelez International (MDLZ)
Current price: $58.21 | Analyst Avg PT: $66.33
$51
🔴 Bear
$72
📊 Base
$111
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$66 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$61 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$48 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$95 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
ACCUMULATE
Base target $66. Cocoa recovery is the 2H 2026 catalyst. Add on weakness toward $54–56. Dividend yield 3.4% provides support.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.