Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) • March 4, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 6.81% • Current Price: $58.73
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Mondelez International was created in October 2012 when Kraft Foods split into two companies:
Kraft Foods Group (North American grocery) and Mondelez International (global snacking). The name
blends "monde" (world) and "delez" (delicious). Mondelez retained the iconic global snacking brands
including Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, Toblerone, belVita, Triscuit, and Halls.
Business Segments (FY2025 revenue mix):
- Biscuits & Baked Snacks (~46% of revenue): Oreo, Chips Ahoy, belVita, Triscuit, LU, Club Social.
The largest and most profitable segment. Global biscuit market share ~16%. Growing in emerging markets.
- Chocolate (~34% of revenue): Cadbury Dairy Milk, Milka, Toblerone, Green & Black's.
Dominant in Europe and EM. This segment was most impacted by cocoa cost spikes in 2024-2025.
- Gum & Candy (~12% of revenue): Trident, Dentyne, Halls, Sour Patch Kids. Recovering post-COVID.
- Cheese & Grocery (~8% of revenue): Philadelphia, Dairylea. Legacy segment, lower growth.
Geographic mix: Europe ~40%, North America ~25%, AMEA ~20%, Latin America ~15%.
Significant EM exposure (45%+ of revenue) provides long-run volume growth but FX headwinds.
Key thesis: Mondelez owns some of the world's most durable snacking brands with pricing power
and long-term volume growth in EM. FY2025 was severely impacted by cocoa costs hitting generational highs
(cocoa futures up ~300% peak-to-trough 2023-2024). Management guided for cocoa cost relief beginning H2 2026
as locked-in high-cost supply rolls off. The market is pricing in a recovery — the question is pace and magnitude.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $28,720 | $31,500 | $36,020 | $36,440 | $38,540 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $4,500 | $4,900 | $5,500 | $5,400 | $5,200 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $3,482 | $3,640 | $4,090 | $3,850 | $3,530 |
| Net Income ($M) | $3,578 | $2,270 | $4,039 | $3,840 | $2,100 |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.04 | $1.96 | $3.62 | $3.42 | $1.89 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $3,176 | $3,002 | $3,602 | $3,523 | $3,235 |
| Annual DPS | $1.425 | $1.545 | $1.710 | $1.885 | $2.020 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $18,900 | $20,500 | $20,200 | $20,900 | $21,970 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +9.7% | +14.3% | +1.2% | +5.8% |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.380 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 6.39% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.80% | × (1 − 24%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 77.5% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 22.5% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 6.81% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $3.64B | $3.37B | $3.37B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $3.67B | $3.16B | $6.53B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $3.71B | $2.96B | $9.49B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $3.75B | $2.77B | $12.27B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.78B | $2.60B | $14.86B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.84B | $2.45B | $17.31B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.90B | $2.30B | $19.61B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.96B | $2.17B | $21.78B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $4.02B | $2.04B | $23.82B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $4.08B | $1.92B | $25.74B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$71.6B | PV(TV)=$33.7B (57% of EV) | EV=$59.5B |
Base Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $3.83B | $3.59B | $3.59B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $4.08B | $3.58B | $7.17B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $4.35B | $3.57B | $10.74B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $4.63B | $3.56B | $14.30B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $4.93B | $3.55B | $17.84B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $5.10B | $3.44B | $21.28B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.28B | $3.33B | $24.61B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $5.47B | $3.23B | $27.84B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $5.66B | $3.13B | $30.97B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $5.86B | $3.03B | $34.00B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$139.3B | PV(TV)=$72.1B (68% of EV) | EV=$106.1B |
Bull Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $4.00B | $3.78B | $3.78B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $4.44B | $3.96B | $7.74B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $4.92B | $4.16B | $11.89B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $5.47B | $4.36B | $16.25B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $6.07B | $4.57B | $20.83B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.40B | $4.56B | $25.39B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.75B | $4.55B | $29.94B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $7.12B | $4.53B | $34.47B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.51B | $4.52B | $38.99B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.93B | $4.51B | $43.50B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$290.6B | PV(TV)=$165.2B (79% of EV) | EV=$208.7B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 4.8% | $102 | $118 | $141 | $178 | $242 |
| 5.3% | $86 | $97 | $113 | $135 | $170 |
| 5.8% | $74 | $82 | $93 | $108 | $129 |
| 6.3% | $64 | $71 | $79 | $89 | $103 |
| 6.8% | $56 | $61 | $67 | $75 | $85 |
| 7.3% | $50 | $54 | $59 | $65 | $72 |
| 7.8% | $45 | $48 | $51 | $56 | $62 |
| 8.3% | $40 | $43 | $46 | $49 | $54 |
| 8.8% | $36 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $47 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | P/E (Fwd) | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Yield | FCF Yield |
|---|
| MDLZ (current) | 18.4x | 13.8x | 18.1x | 3.4% | 5.5% |
| KHC (Kraft Heinz) | 10.2x | 9.1x | 12.0x | 5.2% | 8.3% |
| GIS (General Mills) | 12.5x | 10.8x | 14.2x | 3.8% | 7.0% |
| CAG (Conagra) | 11.8x | 10.1x | 13.5x | 5.0% | 7.4% |
| HSY (Hershey) | 19.5x | 14.2x | 22.0x | 3.2% | 4.5% |
| Peer Average | 13.5x | 11.1x | 15.4x | 4.3% | 6.8% |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.020 |
| Current Yield | 3.44% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 13 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +7.2% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +5.7% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +7.2% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 107.0% ⚠️ |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 62.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | 🟡 Watch |
FCF payout ratio (~62%) is manageable and FCF comfortably covers the dividend. Headline EPS payout appears elevated (>100%) due to FY2025 earnings impact from cocoa cost spikes and FX headwinds — not reflective of ongoing dividend safety. Balance sheet leverage (net debt ~$19.8B) is elevated but stable. Dividend is safe as long as FCF remains above $3B. Watch: any further FCF compression below $2.5B would warrant a closer review.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2022 | $1.96 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.62 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.42 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.89 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.00 | $3.20 | $3.45 | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.26 | $3.49 | $3.76 | 22 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2022 | $31.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $36.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $36.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $38.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $38.5B | $40.5B | $42.2B | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $39.6B | $41.8B | $43.9B | 22 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $67.44 | Range $60–$78
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| Alexia Howard | Bernstein | Buy | $73 | +24.3% |
| Chris Carey | Wells Fargo | Buy | $70 | +19.2% |
| Thomas Palmer | JP Morgan | Buy | $67 | +14.1% |
| Brian Holland | DA Davidson | Hold | $64 | +9.0% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|
| Q1 2025 | $0.74 vs $0.89 | $-0.15 ❌ | $9.3B vs $9.5B | $-0.2B ❌ | Maintained |
| Q2 2025 | $0.45 vs $0.63 | $-0.18 ❌ | $8.9B vs $9.1B | $-0.2B ❌ | Lowered |
| Q3 2025 | $0.52 vs $0.69 | $-0.17 ❌ | $9.4B vs $9.2B | +$0.2B ✅ | Maintained |
| Q4 2025 | $0.18 vs $0.89 | $-0.71 ❌ | $10.9B vs $10.7B | +$0.2B ✅ | Improved FY26 |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
The wide EPS range for FY2026 ($3.00–$3.45) reflects genuine uncertainty around the pace of cocoa cost relief and margin recovery. Four consecutive quarters of EPS misses in 2025 have made analysts cautious — the consensus $3.20 represents ~69% EPS growth YoY, which is achievable if management's H2 2026 margin recovery guidance proves accurate. Revenue estimates are tighter ($38.5B–$42.2B), suggesting volume recovery is more predictable than margin. Watch Q1 2026 earnings for the first evidence of cost relief.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case: Cocoa futures have retreated ~40% from their 2024 peak. As MDLZ's hedged contracts
roll to lower-cost supply in H2 2026 and 2027, gross margins should recover toward 35%+. EPS consensus
for FY2026 is $3.20 — a ~69% recovery from depressed FY2025 GAAP EPS of $1.89. The stock at ~18x
FY2026 earnings is not cheap, but it's reasonable for a business with this brand quality and dividend
growth track record. Analyst consensus PT is $67.44 (+14.8% from current).
Bear Case: Cocoa prices could re-spike if West African production disappoints. Volume elasticity
from pricing actions may prove worse than expected (consumers trading down). FX headwinds from strong USD
could continue to pressure reported results despite operational improvement. Net debt of ~$19.8B limits
financial flexibility.
Key Watch Items: Q1 2026 earnings (May) — first read on margin recovery pace; cocoa futures
spot price monthly; organic revenue growth turning positive; volume/mix commentary in earnings calls.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ)
Current price: $58.73 | Analyst Avg PT: $67.44
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$62 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$55 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$50 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$78 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 3,212.51 |
| Average Cost Basis | $63.87 |
| Current Market Value | $188,671 |
| Unrealized P&L | $-16,512 (-8.0%) |
| Annual Dividend Income | $6,489/yr |
| Yield on Cost | 3.16% |
| vs Target Position (~$200K) | $188,671 vs $200,000 (94% of target) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
