MDLZ
MDLZ
Mondelez International is a global snacking powerhouse — the world's second-largest confectionery company — with iconic brands including Oreo, Cadbury, Toblerone, Milka, belVita, Ritz, and Trident operating across 150+ countries. The company generates approximately 37% of revenues from Emerging Markets, providing meaningful long-term growth optionality as rising middle-class incomes drive premiumization. FY2025 was disrupted by a once-in-a-generation cocoa cost shock (Ivory Coast crop failures drove cocoa to $12,000+/tonne), collapsing gross margins from 39% to 28%; management guided 0-2% organic growth for 2026 with European chocolate recovery not expected until 2027, but the structural brand moats remain fully intact. MDLZ trades at a meaningful discount to intrinsic value — the cocoa impairment is temporary, the brand portfolio is permanent.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | $14,250M | 37% | +3.0% | — | Chocolate-heavy; most cocoa-exposed |
| North America | $8,460M | 22% | +2.0% | — | Oreo, Ritz, belVita, Trident |
| AMEA | $7,710M | 20% | +10.0% | — | Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Africa |
| Latin America | $4,250M | 11% | +8.0% | — | Brazil, Mexico; premium growth |
| Emerging Markets | $3,867M | 10% | +12.0% | — | High-growth frontier markets |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +5.6% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
Startup
Hyper Growth
Self Funding
Operating Leverage
Capital Return
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 9.0% | 8–12% adequate |
| FCF Margin | 8.4% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 4.4x | >4x elevated |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $28,720 | $31,496 | $36,016 | $36,441 | $38,537 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +9.7% | +14.4% | +1.2% | +5.8% |
| Gross Margin | 39.2% | 35.9% | 38.2% | 39.1% | 28.4% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $5,766 | $4,641 | $6,717 | $7,647 | $4,906 |
| EBITDA Margin | 20.1% | 14.7% | 18.7% | 21.0% | 12.7% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $4,653 | $3,534 | $5,502 | $6,345 | $3,548 |
| Operating Margin | 16.2% | 11.2% | 15.3% | 17.4% | 9.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $4,300 | $2,717 | $4,959 | $4,611 | $2,451 |
| Net Margin | 15.0% | 8.6% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 6.4% |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.04 | $1.96 | $3.62 | $3.42 | $1.89 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $3,176 | $3,002 | $3,602 | $3,523 | $3,235 |
| Annual DPS | $1.330 | $1.470 | $1.620 | $1.790 | $1.940 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $19,971 | $23,447 | $19,945 | $18,372 | $21,804 |
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1413.0M | — | $2,110 | 2.6% |
| 2022 | 1385.0M | -2.0% | $2,017 | 2.5% |
| 2023 | 1370.0M | -1.1% | $1,547 | 1.9% |
| 2024 | 1347.0M | -1.7% | $2,334 | 3.0% |
| 2025 | 1298.0M | -3.6% | $2,385 | 3.2% |
MDLZ has repurchased $1.5–2.4B/yr consistently since 2021, reducing diluted shares from 1,413M to 1,298M (−8.2% cumulative); buybacks are self-funded from FCF and ongoing even through the cocoa cost crisis. SBC ~$120-147M/yr partially offsets; net per-share impact is positive — EPS growth has outpaced net income growth by ~2pp/yr. Dividend raised to $2.00/share in Q1 2026 (+7.4% YoY), 12th consecutive annual increase.
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 6.50% | $37 | ▼36.8% |
| 📊 Base | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 6.50% | $73 | ▲25.5% |
| 🚀 Bull | 9.5% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 6.50% | $112 | ▲93.5% |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $2.80B | $2.63B | $2.63B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.00B | $2.64B | $5.27B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.10B | $2.57B | $7.84B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.20B | $2.49B | $10.33B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.30B | $2.41B | $12.74B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.37B | $2.31B | $15.04B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.43B | $2.21B | $17.25B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.50B | $2.12B | $19.37B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.57B | $2.03B | $21.40B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.64B | $1.94B | $23.34B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$82.6B | PV(TV)=$44.0B (65% of EV) | EV=$67.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $67.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $37 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.50B | $3.29B | $3.29B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $3.90B | $3.44B | $6.72B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.20B | $3.48B | $10.20B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.50B | $3.50B | $13.70B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.75B | $3.47B | $17.17B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $4.96B | $3.40B | $20.57B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $5.19B | $3.34B | $23.91B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $5.42B | $3.28B | $27.18B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $5.66B | $3.21B | $30.40B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $5.92B | $3.15B | $33.55B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$151.7B | PV(TV)=$80.8B (71% of EV) | EV=$114.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $114.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $73 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.00B | $3.76B | $3.76B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $4.60B | $4.06B | $7.81B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.10B | $4.22B | $12.03B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.50B | $4.28B | $16.31B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $5.90B | $4.31B | $20.62B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $6.25B | $4.29B | $24.90B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $6.63B | $4.27B | $29.17B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $7.03B | $4.25B | $33.41B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $7.45B | $4.23B | $37.64B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $7.90B | $4.21B | $41.85B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$232.4B | PV(TV)=$123.8B (75% of EV) | EV=$165.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $165.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $112 |
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.5% | $103 | $122 | $150 | $198 | $292 |
| 5.0% | $86 | $99 | $117 | $144 | $189 |
| 5.5% | $73 | $82 | $94 | $112 | $138 |
| 6.0% | $62 | $69 | $78 | $90 | $107 |
| 6.5% | $54 | $60 | $66 | $75 | $86 |
| 7.0% | $48 | $52 | $57 | $63 | $71 |
| 7.5% | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $60 |
| 8.0% | $38 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $52 |
| 8.5% | $34 | $36 | $38 | $41 | $45 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
| Company | Ticker | P/E (fwd) | EV/EBITDA | FCF Yield | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mondelez | MDLZ | 18.7× | 16.2× | 5.6% | 3.4% | Current — trough P/E; div raised to $2.00 |
| Hershey | HSY | 23.4× | 17.8× | 4.5% | 3.2% | Also cocoa-exposed |
| General Mills | GIS | 15.2× | 12.4× | 7.1% | 4.0% | Volume decline risk |
| Kellanova | K | 24.1× | 16.9× | 3.8% | 2.8% | Mars acquisition target |
| MDLZ 5-yr avg | — | 22.4× | 17.2× | 4.8% | 2.4% | Historical baseline |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $3.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $1.96 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.62 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.42 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $1.89 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.86 | $3.10 | $3.24 | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.19 | $3.45 | $3.79 | 28 | Estimate |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $28.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $31.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $36.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $36.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $38.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $38.0B | $40.5B | $42.2B | 29 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $39.6B | $41.8B | $43.8B | 28 | Estimate |
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexia Howard | Bernstein | Buy | $73 | +25.6% |
| Megan Alexander | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $70 | +20.5% |
| Chris Carey | Wells Fargo | Buy | $70 | +20.5% |
| Bingqing Zhu | Rothschild & Co | Hold | $55 | -5.4% |
| Stephen Powers | Deutsche Bank | Hold | $54 | -7.1% |
- Cocoa cost shock is temporary, brand moats are permanent — cocoa futures have already retreated 30%+ from peak; gross margins are set to recover to 34-37% by 2027 as MDLZ layers in lower-cost inventory. The brand portfolio is unchanged.
- Trading at trough valuation — at $58, MDLZ trades at 18.7× 2026E EPS ($3.10) vs. its historical 22-26× range; this is a once-in-a-decade entry point for a company with 10%+ annual EPS growth through most of the last decade.
- Emerging market secular growth — 37% EM revenue exposure with pricing power and brand loyalty; middle-class growth in Asia and Africa drives snacking volume regardless of developed-market trends.
- Systematic buyback program and dividend growth — MDLZ has bought back $1.5–2.4B/yr consistently while growing the dividend for 12 consecutive years; Q1 2026 raised to $0.50/quarter ($2.00 annualized, +7.4% YoY); shares outstanding declined from 1,413M to 1,298M (−8.2%) since 2021.
- Low beta = lower WACC = higher intrinsic value — with β=0.39, MDLZ's WACC is ~5.8%, among the lowest in consumer staples; every 50bps decline in cocoa risk premium expands intrinsic value materially.
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
He joins Mondelēz International from McCain Foods, a $9.1 billion CAD ($7.3 billion USD) privately held Canadian company that is the largest marketer and manufacturer of frozen french fries, potato specialties and appetizers with sales in m
Learn more about our Management Team who help us live our purpose and achieve our vision to lead the future snacking.
Dirk Van de Put is Chairman/CEO at Mondelez International Inc. See Dirk Van de Put's compensation, career history, education, & memberships.
The Investor Relations website contains information about Mondelēz International, Inc.'s business for stockholders, potential investors, and financial analysts.
2025 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2024 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2023 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2022 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2021 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2020 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2019 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2018 · Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 · 2017 · Q4 · Mr. Dirk Van de Put · Chairman & CEO ·
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| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$67 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$55 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$35 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$96 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Accumulate MDLZ at $55–62 — the stock is at trough multiples driven by a temporary commodity cost shock, while brand moats and EM growth optionality remain intact. The base case intrinsic value of ~$73 implies 26% upside; the bull case reaches $89. The dividend was just raised 7.4% to $2.00/share (3.44% yield at $58), reinforcing management's confidence in the recovery. Add aggressively below $55; initiate a starter position now for long-term income accounts. Becomes a Sell above $85 (25% premium to bull case) or if structural pricing power is shown to be permanently impaired.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 3,212 |
| Average Cost Basis | $63.87 |
| Current Market Value | $186,649 |
| Unrealized P&L | $-18,501 (-9.0%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.000/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $6,424/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 3.44% |
| Yield on Cost | 3.13% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $186,649 / $200,000 (93%) |
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Selection | MDLZ uses DCF per Lifecycle Stage 4 (Operating Leverage) classification. FCF payout ratio = $2.00 DPS / $2.49 FCF/share = 80.3% — close to DDM threshold, but the cocoa shock temporarily distorts both FCF and DPS growth, making DCF more appropriate as it can properly normalize the margin recovery. |
| FCF Base Normalization | FY2025 FCF of $3,235M is depressed by record cocoa costs. 3-year average (2023-2025) = $3,453M; normalized FCF (removing one-time cocoa impact) estimated at $3,200M conservatively. As gross margins recover from 28% → 35%+ by 2027, FCF should exceed $4.5B annually — this drives the bull case. |
| WACC Build | Ke = 4.3% + 0.39 × 5.5% = 6.45% (Finnhub β=0.39, updated 2026-04-06). Kd = 4.5% × (1-0.26) = 3.33%. We=82%, Wd=18%. Theoretical WACC = 5.89%. Applied WACC = 6.50% after adding ~61bps risk premium for: (1) cocoa cost recovery uncertainty, (2) elevated leverage (Debt/EBITDA ~4.4× in trough year vs normalized ~2.8×), (3) execution risk on European chocolate recovery timeline. Calibrated to align Base IV with analyst consensus PT of $66. Low beta is structurally justified — MDLZ is a consumer staples compounder. |
| Sanity Check | Base IV ~$73 vs analyst consensus PT $66.33 — approximately 10% above PT. This is within tolerance; the low WACC (5.80%) + recovery thesis justify premium. Bears using higher discount rates ($54 PT) represent maximum caution; base/bull analysts cluster $66-78, consistent with DCF output. |
| Cocoa Risk | The primary bear case risk is structural cocoa cost elevation. If cocoa stays at $8,000+/tonne permanently (vs historical $2,500-3,500), normalized gross margins may reset to 30-33% rather than 37-39%. This is the key watch variable. Cocoa futures have retreated to ~$8,500 from $12,000+ peak as of early 2026. |