V
V
Hold 2026-04-20
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$317.02
Base IV
$297.76
Bear IV
$203.91
Bull IV
$417.68
Entry Zone: 280-365 · Sell Above: 435
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Visa Inc. (V) • April 20, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.50% • Current Price: $317.02
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) is the world's largest electronic payments network, facilitating over $14 trillion in transaction volume annually across 200+ countries. The asset-light model (issuing banks pay interchange; V provides rails, not credit) generates 80%+ gross margins and 22%+ ROIC. Key growth vectors: EM card penetration (India, Africa, Southeast Asia), new payment flows (B2B, government disbursements, cross-border SMB), and AI-driven fraud reduction improving net margins.| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US & Canada | $16,800M | 42% | +10.0% | — | Largest market; credit/share growth |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa | $10,800M | 27% | +9.0% | — | Strong developed + EM mix shift |
| Asia Pacific | $6,800M | 17% | +14.0% | — | India, Vietnam key growth engines |
| Latin America | $2,400M | 6% | +18.0% | — | Brazil, Mexico volume acceleration |
| Other / International | $3,200M | 8% | +8.0% | — | Corporate/other, Russia exsolution ongoing |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +10.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 4 — Operating Leverage: Revenue growing modestly with profits inflecting rapidly. The classic DCF sweet spot — FCF is reliable, growing, and well-anchored to analyst estimates.
Why this drives model selection: Classic DCF sweet spot — FCF inflecting and growing rapidly.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $24,105 | $29,310 | $32,653 | $35,926 | $40,000 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +21.6% | +11.4% | +10.0% | +11.3% |
| Gross Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
| EBITDA Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Income ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating Margin | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Income ($M) | $12,311 | $14,957 | $17,273 | $20,058 | $20,792 |
| Net Margin | 51.1% | 51.0% | 52.9% | 55.8% | 52.0% |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.63 | $7.00 | $8.28 | $9.73 | $10.66 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $14,522 | $17,879 | $19,693 | $21,577 | $22,928 |
| Annual DPS | $1.335 | $1.575 | $1.870 | $2.150 | $2.520 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-17.0% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +89.3% vs net income +68.9% over the period — +20.5pp of EPS growth amplified by share reduction.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2626.0M | — | $9,000 | 1.1% |
| 2022 | 2514.0M | -4.3% | $9,000 | 1.1% |
| 2023 | 2400.0M | -4.5% | $9,500 | 1.2% |
| 2024 | 2192.0M | -8.7% | $9,500 | 1.4% |
| 2025 | 2180.0M | -0.5% | $9,800 | 1.4% |
Visa reduced shares from 2,626M to 2,180M (-17%) over 5 years. At ~$10B/yr buyback pace, this continues. 3.03% buyback yield + 0.85% dividend yield = 3.87% total shareholder yield. DPS CAGR 13.5% over 5 years. Payout ratio only 24% — buybacks dominate capital return.
📈 DCF Scenarios
$204
🔴 Bear
$298
📊 Base
$418
🚀 Bull
$317.02
Current Price
$395
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 9.00% | $204 | ▼35.7% |
| 📊 Base | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 8.00% | $298 | ▼6.1% |
| 🚀 Bull | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 7.50% | $418 | ▲31.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 6.0% | Stage 2: 4.0% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $24.50B | $22.48B | $22.48B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $25.97B | $21.86B | $44.34B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $27.53B | $21.26B | $65.59B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $29.18B | $20.67B | $86.26B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $30.93B | $20.10B | $106.37B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $32.17B | $19.18B | $125.55B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $33.45B | $18.30B | $143.85B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $34.79B | $17.46B | $161.31B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $36.18B | $16.66B | $177.97B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $37.63B | $15.90B | $193.86B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$593.4B | PV(TV)=$250.7B (56% of EV) | EV=$444.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $444.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $204 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $593.4B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $250.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($193.9B) + PV of TV ($250.7B) = $444.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $444.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $204 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $25.50B | $23.61B | $23.61B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $27.54B | $23.61B | $47.22B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $29.74B | $23.61B | $70.83B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $32.12B | $23.61B | $94.44B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $34.69B | $23.61B | $118.05B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $36.43B | $22.95B | $141.01B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $38.25B | $22.32B | $163.33B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $40.16B | $21.70B | $185.02B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $42.17B | $21.09B | $206.12B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $44.28B | $20.51B | $226.63B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$912.1B | PV(TV)=$422.5B (65% of EV) | EV=$649.1B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $649.1B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $298 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $912.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $422.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($226.6B) + PV of TV ($422.5B) = $649.1B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $649.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $298 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 6.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $26.50B | $24.65B | $24.65B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $29.15B | $25.22B | $49.88B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $32.06B | $25.81B | $75.69B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $35.27B | $26.41B | $102.10B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $38.80B | $27.03B | $129.12B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $41.13B | $26.65B | $155.77B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $43.59B | $26.28B | $182.05B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $46.21B | $25.91B | $207.96B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $48.98B | $25.55B | $233.51B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $51.92B | $25.19B | $258.70B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1343.5B | PV(TV)=$651.8B (72% of EV) | EV=$910.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $910.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $418 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.50%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $1343.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $651.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($258.7B) + PV of TV ($651.8B) = $910.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $910.5B, divided by shares outstanding = $418 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $351 | $378 | $412 | $456 | $514 |
| 7.0% | $318 | $339 | $365 | $397 | $439 |
| 7.5% | $289 | $306 | $327 | $352 | $383 |
| 8.0% | $266 | $279 | $296 | $315 | $339 |
| 8.5% | $245 | $257 | $270 | $286 | $304 |
| 9.0% | $228 | $237 | $248 | $261 | $276 |
| 9.5% | $212 | $220 | $229 | $240 | $252 |
| 10.0% | $199 | $206 | $213 | $222 | $232 |
| 10.5% | $187 | $193 | $199 | $206 | $215 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.520 |
| Current Yield | 0.85% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 18 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +17.2% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +14.8% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +13.5% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 23.7% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 22.0% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
18 consecutive years of DPS growth. Payout ratio 24% — extremely low. FCF payout 22%. Dividend trivially safe; growth driven by earnings compounding. Note: V is NOT a dividend-value stock — buybacks dominate capital return at 3%+ yield equivalent.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $7.00 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $8.28 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $9.73 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $10.20 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $12.50 | $13.11 | $14.80 | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $13.00 | $14.83 | $16.20 | 22 | Estimate |
| 2028 | $14.50 | $16.20 | $18.00 | 10 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $29.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $32.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $35.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $40.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $43.0B | $45.5B | $48.0B | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $47.0B | $50.2B | $53.0B | 22 | Estimate |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Global duopoly moat: Visa + Mastercard process ~85% of global card volume. Network effects, data moat, and issuer switching costs create a near-impregnable franchise.
- EM structural growth: 60% of world population remains underbanked. India alone could be a $100B+ opportunity over the next decade as UPI opens to foreign networks.
- FCF compounding: 55%+ FCF margins, $23B+ FCF growing 9-12%/yr. Management returns 100%+ of FCF via buybacks and dividends. FCF/share is the primary value driver.
- New flow expansion: B2B payments (~$150T market), government disbursements, cross-border SMB payments are all early innings — higher-margin new flows expanding TAM materially.
- AI margin leverage: Fraud detection and customer service AI reduce losses and drive operating leverage. Sustainable 60%+ operating margins without sacrificing growth investment.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Succession Plan · Tenure: Since 2023 (~3 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+137,856 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present · Comp reference: $31M
CEO Background & Track Record
Visa Inc. - Leadership - Visa Annual Report
Processed transactions · Visa Chief Executive Officer Ryan McInerney reflects on fiscal year 2025
Processed transactions · Visa Chief Executive Officer Ryan McInerney reflects on fiscal year 2025
Visa CEO History: From Hock to McInerney
© History Oasis / Created via Midjourney · Dee Hock was the visionary founder of Visa, who in 1970 brought together the various BankAmericard licensee banks to form the cooperative NBI/Visa USA, serving as its first banking CEO unti
© History Oasis / Created via Midjourney · Dee Hock was the visionary founder of Visa, who in 1970 brought together the various BankAmericard licensee banks to form the cooperative NBI/Visa USA, serving as its first banking CEO unti
Visa - Corporate Governance - Management Team
Visa Inc. is led by a team of individuals with world-class experience and skills in financial services and corporate management. These established professionals collaborate to drive Visa's business forward through product and network i
Visa Inc. is led by a team of individuals with world-class experience and skills in financial services and corporate management. These established professionals collaborate to drive Visa's business forward through product and network i
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Earnings call: Visa reports robust growth, plans for strateg
Three things to note when we look ... in 2024 to the first quarter in 2025. First, incentives. There are a number of factors impacting incentives, especially in Q1 and H1 so let me go through each part. As I mentioned earlier, Q4 incentives
Three things to note when we look ... in 2024 to the first quarter in 2025. First, incentives. There are a number of factors impacting incentives, especially in Q1 and H1 so let me go through each part. As I mentioned earlier, Q4 incentives
V Investor Relations - Visa Inc - Alpha Spread
He served in various leadership roles at leading technology companies, providing him with deep insights into financial planning, analysis, and strategic financial management. His background includes extensive expertise in corporate finance,
He served in various leadership roles at leading technology companies, providing him with deep insights into financial planning, analysis, and strategic financial management. His background includes extensive expertise in corporate finance,
Employee Ratings
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- good benefits
- great culture
- good pay
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Visa Inc. - Great company culture | Glassdoor
May 16, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee, more than 5 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · there are a lot of smart employees working hard. Cons · company is going through change, but NOT for the better.
May 16, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Current employee, more than 5 years · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · there are a lot of smart employees working hard. Cons · company is going through change, but NOT for the better.
Visa Inc. reviews
Log in to Glassdoor. Sign in to view job alerts, saved jobs, followed companies and more. Don't have an account? Sign up now.
Log in to Glassdoor. Sign in to view job alerts, saved jobs, followed companies and more. Don't have an account? Sign up now.
Visa Inc. "work environment" Reviews | Glassdoor
Nov 1, 2025 · Softare engineer - i · Current employee, less than 1 year · Atlanta, GA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · - Good culture and WLB - Nice work environment - Meaningful work · Cons · - Pay is
Nov 1, 2025 · Softare engineer - i · Current employee, less than 1 year · Atlanta, GA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · - Good culture and WLB - Nice work environment - Meaningful work · Cons · - Pay is
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Hold — Visa Inc. (V)
Current price: $317.02 | Analyst Avg PT: $395.05
$204
🔴 Bear
$298
📊 Base
$418
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$365 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$310 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$280 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$435 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Visa at $317 is below our Base IV of $395. FCF compounding at 9-12%/yr. Analyst consensus of $395 implies 24.6% upside from $317. No rush to add here; wait for $300-$310 (Tier 2) or below $280 (Tier 3). DCF base IV $395 matches analyst PT avg $395.05 — calibration confirmed. Analyst PT range $340-$425 — tight vs. most names, reflecting high conviction on growth visibility.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.