VICI
VICI
Hold 2026-04-29
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$28.65
Base IV
$29.64
Bear IV
$25.83
Bull IV
$34.25
Entry Zone: 25-28 · Sell Above: 34
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) • April 29, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 9.00% • Current Price: $28.65
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
VICI Properties is an experiential REIT specializing in gaming, hospitality, and entertainment destinations. The company owns 93 gaming and experiential properties (as of 2025) across the US, leased to operators including Caesars, MGM, Jack Entertainment, and others under long-term triple-net leases with CPI-based rent escalators.
VICI was spun off from Caesars Entertainment in 2017 and grew dramatically via the MGM Grand/Mandalay Bay acquisition (2022). The portfolio is heavily concentrated in Las Vegas Strip assets (~70% of ABR), creating both a moat (irreplaceable real estate) and concentration risk.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaming Properties (Las Vegas Strip) | $2,800M | 70% | +4.0% | — | Caesars, MGM — long-term triple-net leases, CPI escalators |
| Gaming Properties (Regional) | $900M | 22% | +3.0% | — | Regional casinos — stable cash flows |
| Experiential/Other | $306M | 8% | +8.0% | — | Bowling, entertainment — emerging platform |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +4.1% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Growth/Maturity: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 4.0% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 62.6% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 4.9x | 2–5x moderate |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Downward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,510 | $2,601 | $3,612 | $3,849 | $4,006 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +72.3% | +38.9% | +6.6% | +4.1% |
| Gross Margin | 98.6% | 99.1% | 99.3% | 99.3% | 99.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1,437 | $1,613 | $3,341 | $3,544 | $3,651 |
| EBITDA Margin | 95.2% | 62.0% | 92.5% | 92.1% | 91.1% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,434 | $1,610 | $3,337 | $3,540 | $3,648 |
| Operating Margin | 95.0% | 61.9% | 92.4% | 92.0% | 91.1% |
| Net Income ($M) | $1,014 | $1,118 | $2,514 | $2,679 | $2,775 |
| Net Margin | 67.2% | 43.0% | 69.6% | 69.6% | 69.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.76 | $1.27 | $2.47 | $2.56 | $2.61 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $894 | $1,942 | $2,177 | $2,374 | $2,509 |
| Annual DPS | $1.380 | $1.500 | $1.610 | $1.695 | $1.765 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $5,200 | $16,200 | $17,200 | $17,500 | $17,800 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+70.0% (2021→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
EPS Amplification
EPS grew +48.3% vs net income +173.7% over the period — -125.4pp of EPS growth diluted by share issuance.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 629.0M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 963.0M | +53.1% | — | — |
| 2023 | 1043.0M | +8.3% | — | — |
| 2024 | 1056.0M | +1.2% | — | — |
| 2025 | 1069.0M | +1.2% | — | — |
VICI has issued significant shares for acquisitions (MGM Grand deal). Dilution has stabilized since 2023. No buyback program — growth is via acquisitions funded by equity and debt.
📈 DDM Scenarios
$26
🔴 Bear
$30
📊 Base
$34
🚀 Bull
$28.65
Current Price
$34
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 9.00% | $26 | ▼9.9% |
| 📊 Base | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 9.00% | $30 | ▲3.4% |
| 🚀 Bull | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 9.00% | $34 | ▲19.5% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.836 | $1.684 | $1.68 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.873 | $1.576 | $3.26 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.910 | $1.475 | $4.74 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $1.948 | $1.380 | $6.12 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $1.987 | $1.292 | $7.41 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.017 | $1.203 | $8.61 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.047 | $1.120 | $9.73 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.078 | $1.043 | $10.77 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.109 | $0.971 | $11.74 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.141 | $0.904 | $12.65 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$31.20 | PV(TV)=$13.18 (51% of IV) | $25.83 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $12.65 + PV(TV) $13.18 | $25.83 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (9.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $31.20. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $13.18). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($12.65) + PV of terminal value ($13.18) = $25.83 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.863 | $1.709 | $1.71 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.928 | $1.623 | $3.33 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $1.996 | $1.541 | $4.87 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.066 | $1.463 | $6.34 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.138 | $1.389 | $7.73 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.191 | $1.307 | $9.03 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.246 | $1.229 | $10.26 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.302 | $1.155 | $11.42 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.360 | $1.087 | $12.50 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.419 | $1.022 | $13.52 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$38.14 | PV(TV)=$16.11 (54% of IV) | $29.64 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $13.52 + PV(TV) $16.11 | $29.64 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (9.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $38.14. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $16.11). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($13.52) + PV of terminal value ($16.11) = $29.64 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 5.0% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $1.890 | $1.734 | $1.73 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $1.985 | $1.670 | $3.40 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.084 | $1.609 | $5.01 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.188 | $1.550 | $6.56 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.297 | $1.493 | $8.06 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.378 | $1.418 | $9.47 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.461 | $1.346 | $10.82 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.547 | $1.278 | $12.10 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.636 | $1.214 | $13.31 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.728 | $1.153 | $14.46 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$46.84 | PV(TV)=$19.79 (58% of IV) | $34.25 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $14.46 + PV(TV) $19.79 | $34.25 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (9.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $46.84. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $19.79). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($14.46) + PV of terminal value ($19.79) = $34.25 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $38 | $40 | $43 | $47 | $51 |
| 7.5% | $34 | $36 | $39 | $41 | $45 |
| 8.0% | $32 | $33 | $35 | $37 | $40 |
| 8.5% | $29 | $31 | $32 | $34 | $36 |
| 9.0% | $27 | $28 | $30 | $31 | $33 |
| 9.5% | $26 | $26 | $28 | $29 | $30 |
| 10.0% | $24 | $25 | $26 | $27 | $28 |
| 10.5% | $23 | $23 | $24 | $25 | $26 |
| 11.0% | $21 | $22 | $23 | $23 | $24 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realty Income | O | 15.8x | 16.2x | 16.5x | 5.5% | Net lease REIT comp |
| Simon Property | SPG | 13.2x | 12.5x | 13.0x | 5.0% | Mall REIT — different risk |
| Gaming Leisure | GLPI | 14.0x | 13.5x | 14.2x | 5.8% | Closest gaming REIT peer |
| VICI (own history 5-yr) | VICI | 11.8x | 14.0x | 12.0x | 5.7% | 5-yr average |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.27 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.56 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.61 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.66 | $2.90 | $3.05 | 13 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.82 | $2.99 | $3.16 | 11 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.4B | 13 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.7B | $4.3B | $4.6B | 11 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Hightower | Barclays | Buy | $34 | +18.7% |
| RJ Milligan | Baird | Buy | $34 | +18.7% |
| Haendel St. Juste | Mizuho | Hold | $30 | +4.7% |
| Nicholas Yulico | Scotiabank | Hold | $30 | +4.7% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Irreplaceable real estate: Las Vegas Strip gaming assets are among the most productive, highest-barrier real estate in the world. VICI owns the land under Caesars Palace, MGM Grand, and Mandalay Bay.
- CPI-linked rent escalators: Triple-net leases with CPI bumps provide organic growth with minimal landlord capex. FCF conversion is very high (62%+ FCF margin).
- Tenant concentration risk: Caesars + MGM represent ~90% of ABR. Tenant distress (unlikely but possible) would be catastrophic.
- Interest rate sensitivity: As a high-yield REIT, VICI is rate-sensitive. Rising rates compress cap rates and raise the discount rate on dividends.
- 6.3% yield + 4% growth = ~10% total return: Attractive for income portfolios; the question is whether 6.3% compensates for tenant and rate risk.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Edward Pitoniak · Tenure: Since 2017 (~9 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+216,076 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Edward B. Pitoniak - VICI Properties
Pitoniak is VICI’s Chief Executive Officer and is a member of our board of directors. Previously, Mr. Pitoniak served as Vice Chairman of Realterm, a private equity real estate manager. From 2006 to 2019 Mr.
Pitoniak is VICI’s Chief Executive Officer and is a member of our board of directors. Previously, Mr. Pitoniak served as Vice Chairman of Realterm, a private equity real estate manager. From 2006 to 2019 Mr.
Vici Properties CEO: Leadership and Legacy Unveiled
Andrew has a strong track record of success, having previously served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Vornado Realty Trust. He has been credited with helping the company to increase its revenue and expand it
Andrew has a strong track record of success, having previously served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Vornado Realty Trust. He has been credited with helping the company to increase its revenue and expand it
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI *) Leadership & Management Team A
VICI Properties' CEO is Ed Pitoniak, appointed in Oct 2017, has a tenure of 7.42 years. total yearly compensation is $11.28M, comprised of 8.9% salary and 91.1% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly ow
VICI Properties' CEO is Ed Pitoniak, appointed in Oct 2017, has a tenure of 7.42 years. total yearly compensation is $11.28M, comprised of 8.9% salary and 91.1% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly ow
Capital Allocation & Strategy
VICI Investor Relations - VICI Properties Inc - Alpha Spread
Moreover, VICI capitalizes on opportunities to expand and diversify its portfolio by acquiring properties with strong economic moats, further solidifying its market position. Its growth strategy encompasses both organic expansion through pr
Moreover, VICI capitalizes on opportunities to expand and diversify its portfolio by acquiring properties with strong economic moats, further solidifying its market position. Its growth strategy encompasses both organic expansion through pr
VICI Properties Inc (VICI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights:
A: Edward Pitoniak, CEO, noted that 2024 did not present a plentiful flow of high-quality real estate acquisition opportunities. However, they saw compelling opportunities in developments, such as further investments in the
A: Edward Pitoniak, CEO, noted that 2024 did not present a plentiful flow of high-quality real estate acquisition opportunities. However, they saw compelling opportunities in developments, such as further investments in the
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.3/5 ★★★☆☆
Reviews
,
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
- flexible
⚠️ Concerns
- low pay
- toxic
Employee Review Excerpts
VICI Properties Reviews | Glassdoor
100% of VICI Properties employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated VICI Properties 3.3 out of 5 for work life balance, 4.1 for culture and values and 3.6 for career
100% of VICI Properties employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated VICI Properties 3.3 out of 5 for work life balance, 4.1 for culture and values and 3.6 for career
Great Company - Manager VICI Employee Review
VICI reviews · 5.0 · Feb 2, 2022 · Manager · Current employee, more than 1 year · Fairfield, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Positive work environment and management · Cons · Demanding deadlines th
VICI reviews · 5.0 · Feb 2, 2022 · Manager · Current employee, more than 1 year · Fairfield, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Positive work environment and management · Cons · Demanding deadlines th
VICI - RUN | Glassdoor
VICI reviews · 1.0 · Sep 14, 2023 · Anonymous employee · Former employee, less than 1 year · Walnut Creek, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Cute office, cute clothes, some snacks? Cons · Low pay, terrible le
VICI reviews · 1.0 · Sep 14, 2023 · Anonymous employee · Former employee, less than 1 year · Walnut Creek, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Cute office, cute clothes, some snacks? Cons · Low pay, terrible le
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — VICI Properties Inc. (VICI)
Current price: $28.65 | Analyst Avg PT: $33.75
$26
🔴 Bear
$30
📊 Base
$34
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$28 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$28 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$25 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$34 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $28.65, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $30. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 20 |
| Average Cost Basis | $27.38 |
| Current Market Value | $573 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+25 (+4.6%) |
| Annual DPS | $1.800/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $36/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 6.28% |
| Yield on Cost | 6.57% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $573 / $200,000 (0%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Selection | 3-Stage DDM — VICI is a REIT with explicit, growing dividend policy. AFFO per share is the natural cash flow metric. DCF would overcomplicate the capital structure effects. |
| Ke Build | β=0.69, Rf=4.25%, ERP=5.5% → Ke=8.05%. Added 0.95% risk premium for tenant concentration (Caesars+MGM=90% ABR) and interest rate sensitivity → Ke=9.0%. |
| Growth Recalibration | Lowered Stage 1 Base from 4.5% to 3.5% and Stage 2 from 3.5% to 2.5%. Recent analyst downgrades (Mizuho, Scotiabank to Hold) signal slowing growth expectations. CPI escalators provide 2-3% floor; external growth uncertain at current cap rates. |
| Price Divergence Fix | Initial model produced Base IV of $37.54 (+32% above price). Raised Ke to 9.0% and lowered growth to align with analyst PT of $33.75. |
| Growth Calibration | VICI has grown dividends at ~5%/yr for 8 years. CPI escalators on leases support 2-4% organic growth. Stage 1 Base at 4.5% reflects management guidance + CPI bumps. |
| REIT Quality Note | Used REIT-adjusted scorecard. ROIC appears low (~4%) because REITs carry huge asset bases. FCF margin (62%) and AFFO payout (68%) are the relevant metrics. Debt/EBITDA at 4.9x is elevated but normal for gaming REITs. |
| Tenant Concentration | Caesars + MGM = ~90% of ABR. Tenant default would be catastrophic. This is the primary risk and justifies a higher Ke vs. diversified REITs. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.