Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Meta Platforms (META) • March 9, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 10.80% • Current Price: $644.86
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) was founded in 2004 by Mark Zuckerberg at Harvard. It went public in 2012 and has since grown into one of the world's most dominant digital advertising platforms. Meta operates the world's largest social graph, connecting 3.35 billion daily active users across its Family of Apps. After a rocky 2022 — dubbed the 'Year of Efficiency' — Meta executed one of the most dramatic corporate turnarounds in tech history, cutting 21,000 employees and refocusing on AI and profitability. The stock rose from $88 to $600+ in 2023-24.
Meta's two segments are the Family of Apps (99% of revenue) and Reality Labs. The company is now the dominant force in AI-powered advertising, and its open-source Llama LLM is aggressively competing with OpenAI and Google.
| Segment | Description | % Revenue | Revenue (FY25) | YoY Growth | Op. Margin |
|---|
| Family of Apps | Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger — ad revenue | ~99% | ~$199B | +22% | ~57% |
| Reality Labs | Quest VR headsets, Ray-Ban smart glasses, Metaverse R&D | ~1% | ~$2.2B | +15% | -130%+ |
Family of Apps continues to compound at 20%+ via AI-driven ad pricing (Advantage+), Reels monetization catching Feed, and WhatsApp Business expansion. Reality Labs loses ~$5B/yr but represents the long-term spatial computing bet. AI infrastructure CapEx ($60-65B in 2025) is the key near-term swing factor — consensus sees this normalizing post-2026 as Meta deploys custom MTIA silicon chips.
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $117,929 | $116,609 | $134,902 | $164,501 | $200,966 |
| EBITDA ($M) | $54,720 | $37,630 | $57,929 | $84,878 | $101,892 |
| Operating Income ($M) | $46,753 | $28,944 | $46,751 | $69,380 | $83,276 |
| Net Income ($M) | $39,370 | $23,200 | $39,098 | $62,360 | $60,458 |
| EPS (diluted) | $13.77 | $8.59 | $14.87 | $23.86 | $23.49 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $38,993 | $19,289 | $44,068 | $54,072 | $46,109 |
| Annual DPS | $0.000 | $0.000 | $0.000 | $2.000 | $2.100 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $13,873 | $26,591 | $37,234 | $49,060 | $83,897 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | -1.1% | +15.7% | +21.9% | +22.2% |
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.30% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.250 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 11.18% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 3.80% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.04% | × (1 − 20%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 95.2% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 4.8% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 10.78% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $53.11B | $47.93B | $47.93B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $60.01B | $48.88B | $96.82B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $67.82B | $49.86B | $146.67B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $76.63B | $50.85B | $197.52B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $86.59B | $51.86B | $249.37B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $93.52B | $50.54B | $299.92B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $101.00B | $49.27B | $349.19B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $109.08B | $48.02B | $397.21B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $117.81B | $46.81B | $444.02B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $127.24B | $45.63B | $489.64B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1571.3B | PV(TV)=$563.5B (54% of EV) | EV=$1053.1B |
Base Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $57.34B | $51.75B | $51.75B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $69.95B | $56.98B | $108.73B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $85.34B | $62.74B | $171.47B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $104.12B | $69.08B | $240.56B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $127.03B | $76.07B | $316.63B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $144.81B | $78.26B | $394.89B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $165.08B | $80.52B | $475.42B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $188.20B | $82.85B | $558.27B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $214.54B | $85.24B | $643.51B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $244.58B | $87.70B | $731.21B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$3229.7B | PV(TV)=$1158.2B (61% of EV) | EV=$1889.4B |
Bull Scenario
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $61.10B | $55.14B | $55.14B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $79.43B | $64.70B | $119.84B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $103.26B | $75.91B | $195.76B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $134.24B | $89.07B | $284.82B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $174.51B | $104.50B | $389.32B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $209.41B | $113.18B | $502.50B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $251.29B | $122.57B | $625.07B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $301.55B | $132.75B | $757.82B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $361.86B | $143.77B | $901.60B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $434.23B | $155.71B | $1057.31B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$6156.6B | PV(TV)=$2207.7B (68% of EV) | EV=$3265.0B |
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|
| 8.8% | $885 | $929 | $981 | $1042 | $1114 |
| 9.3% | $816 | $853 | $896 | $946 | $1004 |
| 9.8% | $755 | $787 | $823 | $864 | $912 |
| 10.3% | $702 | $729 | $759 | $794 | $834 |
| 10.8% | $655 | $678 | $704 | $733 | $766 |
| 11.3% | $613 | $633 | $655 | $680 | $708 |
| 11.8% | $575 | $593 | $612 | $633 | $657 |
| 12.3% | $541 | $556 | $573 | $591 | $612 |
| 12.8% | $511 | $524 | $538 | $554 | $572 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Fwd P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|
| META | 21.1x | 17.6x | 34x | 0.3% | Self |
| GOOGL | 21.0x | 14.1x | 24x | 0.5% | Search/AI |
| SNAP | NM | 13.5x | NM | None | Social media (subscale) |
| PINS | 28.0x | 12.8x | 34x | None | Visual search |
| RDDT | NM | 48.0x | NM | None | Social/Forums |
| META 5yr avg | ~20x | ~15x | ~26x | — | Own history |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.100 |
| Current Yield | 0.33% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 1 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +5.0% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +5.0% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.0% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 8.9% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 11.6% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
Token dividend (8.9% EPS payout, 12% FCF payout). No threat to FCF generation. Buybacks ($50B+/yr) are the primary capital return mechanism. Dividend is symbolic — management will grow it modestly over time but it is not an income stock.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $13.77 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $8.59 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $14.87 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $23.86 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $23.49 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $25.90 | $30.55 | $41.75 | 69 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $24.21 | $35.23 | $47.59 | 65 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|
| 2021 | $117.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $116.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $134.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $164.5B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $201.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $230.2B | $254.9B | $273.3B | 69 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $265.9B | $301.3B | $330.2B | 65 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $835.77 | Range $645–$1144
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|
| Thomas Champion | Piper Sandler | Buy | $880 | +36.5% |
| Ken Gawrelski | Wells Fargo | Buy | $856 | +32.7% |
| Gil Luria | DA Davidson | Strong Buy | $850 | +31.8% |
| Brian Nowak | Morgan Stanley | Buy | $825 | +27.9% |
| Joseph Bonner | Argus Research | Strong Buy | $800 | +24.1% |
(d) Earnings Surprise History
| Quarter | EPS Act vs Est | EPS Beat/Miss | Rev Act vs Est | Rev Beat/Miss | Guidance |
|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.03 vs $5.25 | +$0.78 ✅ | $40.6B vs $40.3B | +$0.3B ✅ | Raised |
| Q2 2025 | $6.43 vs $5.66 | +$0.77 ✅ | $42.3B vs $41.4B | +$0.9B ✅ | Raised |
| Q1 2025 | $6.43 vs $5.25 | +$1.18 ✅ | $42.3B vs $41.4B | +$0.9B ✅ | Raised |
| Q4 2024 | $8.02 vs $6.76 | +$1.26 ✅ | $48.4B vs $46.9B | +$1.5B ✅ | Raised |
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
META has beaten EPS estimates by 13-22% for 4 consecutive quarters — one of the most consistent outperformers in mega-cap tech. Wide bull/bear range ($645-$1,144) reflects legitimate uncertainty around AI CapEx ROI and Reality Labs drag. Base case EPS growth of 30% for FY2026E anchors the thesis.
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case — AI Is The Moat Widener: Meta's open-source Llama strategy is brilliant competitive judo — by commoditizing AI models, Meta pressures OpenAI/Anthropic's commercial moats while using its 3.35B-user social graph as a closed-loop AI training advantage. AI-powered ad relevance (Advantage+) is already inflating CPMs 15-20% YoY. As custom MTIA chips deploy in 2026-27, CapEx normalizes and free cash flow should re-accelerate toward $65-75B. At $835 consensus PT, the stock trades at 18x FY2026E FCF — reasonable for a compounding platform.
Bear Case — CapEx Treadmill + Antitrust: The FTC antitrust case seeking forced divestiture of Instagram and WhatsApp is the existential risk — META could lose 40% of engagement if it loses. AI CapEx ($60B+/yr) may not yield expected ad revenue uplift. EU regulatory pressure (DSA/DMA) could cap European growth. Reality Labs continues burning $5B+/yr with no near-term path to profitability.
Base Assumptions: FTC case settles short of divestiture (our base case, ~70% prob). AI CapEx peaks in 2025-2026, normalizes by 2027. FCF grows ~22% through 2030, decelerating as the business matures. META maintains 40%+ operating margins on Family of Apps. Current dip to $645 from $750+ highs in Jan 2026 is macro/tariff-driven, not thesis impairment.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — Meta Platforms (META)
Current price: $644.86 | Analyst Avg PT: $835.77
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$620 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$580 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$540 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$920 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Shares Held | 376 |
| Average Cost Basis | $515.75 |
| Current Market Value | $242,467 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+48,545 (+25.0%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.100/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $790/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 0.33% |
| Yield on Cost | 0.41% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $242,467 / $200,000 (121%) |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
