META
META
Trim 2026-04-13
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$629.80
Base IV
$120.11
Bear IV
$68.49
Bull IV
$253.88
Entry Zone: 65-111 · Sell Above: 631
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) • April 13, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 9.00% • Current Price: $629.80
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
📈 DCF Scenarios
$68
🔴 Bear
$120
📊 Base
$254
🚀 Bull
$629.80
Current Price
$550
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 10.0% | 8.0% | 3.0% | 10.00% | $68 | ▼89.1% |
| 📊 Base | 15.0% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 9.00% | $120 | ▼80.9% |
| 🚀 Bull | 20.0% | 12.0% | 5.0% | 8.00% | $254 | ▼59.7% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 10.0% | Stage 2: 8.0% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $36.30B | $33.00B | $33.00B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $39.93B | $33.00B | $66.00B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $43.92B | $33.00B | $99.00B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $48.32B | $33.00B | $132.00B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $53.15B | $33.00B | $165.00B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $57.40B | $32.40B | $197.40B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $61.99B | $31.81B | $229.21B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $66.95B | $31.23B | $260.44B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $72.31B | $30.66B | $291.11B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $78.09B | $30.11B | $321.22B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$1149.0B | PV(TV)=$443.0B (58% of EV) | EV=$764.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $764.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $68 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $1149.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $443.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($321.2B) + PV of TV ($443.0B) = $764.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $784.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $68 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 15.0% | Stage 2: 10.0% | Terminal: 4.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $37.95B | $34.82B | $34.82B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $43.64B | $36.73B | $71.55B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $50.19B | $38.76B | $110.30B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $57.72B | $40.89B | $151.19B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $66.37B | $43.14B | $194.33B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $73.01B | $43.53B | $237.87B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $80.31B | $43.93B | $281.80B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $88.34B | $44.34B | $326.14B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $97.18B | $44.74B | $370.88B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $106.90B | $45.15B | $416.04B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$2223.5B | PV(TV)=$939.2B (69% of EV) | EV=$1355.3B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $1355.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $120 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (4.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $2223.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $939.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($416.0B) + PV of TV ($939.2B) = $1355.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $1375.3B, divided by shares outstanding = $120 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 20.0% | Stage 2: 12.0% | Terminal: 5.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $39.60B | $36.67B | $36.67B |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $47.52B | $40.74B | $77.41B |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $57.02B | $45.27B | $122.67B |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $68.43B | $50.30B | $172.97B |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $82.11B | $55.89B | $228.86B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $91.97B | $57.96B | $286.81B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $103.00B | $60.10B | $346.92B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $115.37B | $62.33B | $409.24B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $129.21B | $64.64B | $473.88B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $144.71B | $67.03B | $540.91B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$5065.0B | PV(TV)=$2346.1B (81% of EV) | EV=$2887.0B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $2887.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $254 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (5.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $5065.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $2346.1B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($540.9B) + PV of TV ($2346.1B) = $2887.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $2907.0B, divided by shares outstanding = $254 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $130 | $139 | $150 | $164 | $183 |
| 7.5% | $118 | $125 | $134 | $145 | $158 |
| 8.0% | $108 | $114 | $121 | $129 | $140 |
| 8.5% | $99 | $104 | $110 | $116 | $125 |
| 9.0% | $91 | $96 | $100 | $106 | $112 |
| 9.5% | $85 | $88 | $92 | $97 | $102 |
| 10.0% | $79 | $82 | $85 | $89 | $94 |
| 10.5% | $74 | $77 | $79 | $83 | $86 |
| 11.0% | $70 | $72 | $74 | $77 | $80 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Meta Platforms · Tenure: Since 2004 (~22 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+2,859,986 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Mark Zuckerberg - Wikipedia
Mark Elliot Zuckerberg (/ˈzʌkərbɜːrɡ/; born May 14, 1984) is an American businessman and programmer who co-founded the social media service Facebook and its parent company Meta Platforms. He serves as its chairman, chief ex
Mark Elliot Zuckerberg (/ˈzʌkərbɜːrɡ/; born May 14, 1984) is an American businessman and programmer who co-founded the social media service Facebook and its parent company Meta Platforms. He serves as its chairman, chief ex
Mark Elliot Zuckerberg, Meta Platforms Inc: Profile and Biog
Mark Elliot Zuckerberg is Chairman/CEO/Founder at Meta Platforms Inc. See Mark Elliot Zuckerberg's compensation, career history, education, & memberships.
Mark Elliot Zuckerberg is Chairman/CEO/Founder at Meta Platforms Inc. See Mark Elliot Zuckerberg's compensation, career history, education, & memberships.
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Leadership & Management Team Ana
Meta Platforms' CEO is Mark Zuckerberg, appointed in Jul 2004, has a tenure of 21.75 years. total yearly compensation is $27.22M, comprised of 0% salary and 100% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly o
Meta Platforms' CEO is Mark Zuckerberg, appointed in Jul 2004, has a tenure of 21.75 years. total yearly compensation is $27.22M, comprised of 0% salary and 100% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly o
Capital Allocation & Strategy
User | chroniclejournal.com - Meta Platforms Inc. (META): A
AI-Driven Renaissance (2023-2025): A strong resurgence driven by renewed focus on AI, improvements in the core advertising business, and disciplined spending, leading to new all-time highs. ... Social Media Dominance: Unparalleled g
AI-Driven Renaissance (2023-2025): A strong resurgence driven by renewed focus on AI, improvements in the core advertising business, and disciplined spending, leading to new all-time highs. ... Social Media Dominance: Unparalleled g
Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Stock Price, Market Cap, Segment
The overarching narrative from Meta's Q2 2025 earnings call was the accelerating pursuit of "personal superintelligence." CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized the increasing clarity of this long-term vision, underpinned by substant
The overarching narrative from Meta's Q2 2025 earnings call was the accelerating pursuit of "personal superintelligence." CEO Mark Zuckerberg emphasized the increasing clarity of this long-term vision, underpinned by substant
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.7/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
,
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- recommend
⚠️ Concerns
- toxic
Employee Review Excerpts
Meta Reviews in US | Glassdoor
The Meta employee rating in US is in line with the average (within 1 standard deviation) for employers within the Information Technology industry (3.7 stars).Read more ... Compensation is great. Opportunity for growth could
The Meta employee rating in US is in line with the average (within 1 standard deviation) for employers within the Information Technology industry (3.7 stars).Read more ... Compensation is great. Opportunity for growth could
Meta Company Reviews (41): Pros & Cons of Working At Meta Co
How satisfied are employees working at Meta Company?56% of Meta Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Meta Company 3.1 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for cu
How satisfied are employees working at Meta Company?56% of Meta Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated Meta Company 3.1 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.5 for cu
Meta Reviews: Pros And Cons of Working At Meta | Gla
Good company culture and empathetic leaders · Cons · Lots of changes and uncertainty at times · Show more · Helpful · Share · 5.0 · Jul 6, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Former employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business ou
Good company culture and empathetic leaders · Cons · Lots of changes and uncertainty at times · Show more · Helpful · Share · 5.0 · Jul 6, 2025 · Anonymous employee · Former employee · Recommend · CEO approval · Business ou
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Trim — Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)
Current price: $629.80 | Analyst Avg PT: $550.00
$68
🔴 Bear
$120
📊 Base
$254
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$111 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$94 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$65 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$631 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Trim. At $629.80, the shares are near or above the upper end of fair value. New buying is not attractive here, and risk/reward improves only on a pullback.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.