VICI
VICI
Strong Buy 2026-04-28
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$28.44
Base IV
$35.15
Bear IV
$32.58
Bull IV
$40.49
Entry Zone: 31-34 · Sell Above: 40
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — VICI Properties (VICI) • April 28, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 9.30% • Current Price: $28.44
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
VICI Properties (NYSE: VICI) is one of the largest net-lease REITs in the S&P 500, specializing in experiential, gaming, and entertainment real estate. The company owns 93 gaming properties and 4 experiential properties across the United States, with over 1,300 tenants. VICI was spun off from Caesars Entertainment in 2017 and dramatically expanded through the $17.2B acquisition of MGM Growth Properties (MGP) in 2022, making it the dominant landlord on the Las Vegas Strip. The company's portfolio includes iconic assets like Caesars Palace, MGM Grand, The Venetian, and Mandalay Bay.
VICI operates under triple-net leases, meaning tenants pay all property expenses, insurance, and taxes. Leases feature contractual rent escalators (typically 1.5–2.5% annually), providing predictable, inflation-protected income growth. The company has 15 tenants across gaming, hospitality, and experiential sectors, with its top tenants — Caesars Entertainment and MGM Resorts — representing the vast majority of rental revenue. VICI has increased its dividend for 8 consecutive years since its IPO, with a current yield of ~6.3%.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaming Leases (Caesars) | $1,750M | 44% | +3.5% | 95.0% | Core triple-net, contractual escalators |
| Gaming Leases (MGM Resorts) | $1,550M | 39% | +3.5% | 95.0% | Post-MGP merger, Las Vegas Strip trophy assets |
| Other Gaming / Experiential Leases | $460M | 11% | +8.0% | 90.0% | 13 non-Caesars/MGM tenants + new partnerships |
| Service & Other Income | $256M | 6% | +5.0% | 60.0% | Mezzanine loans, management fees, other |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +4.1% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 5.8% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 62.7% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 5.0x | 2–5x moderate |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Neutral | Last 90 days consensus direction |
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $1,509 | $2,601 | $3,612 | $3,849 | $4,006 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +72.4% | +38.9% | +6.6% | +4.1% |
| Gross Margin | 98.7% | 98.8% | 99.1% | 99.2% | 99.3% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $1,379 | $2,300 | $3,200 | $3,350 | $3,490 |
| EBITDA Margin | 91.4% | 88.4% | 88.6% | 87.0% | 87.1% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $1,014 | $1,118 | $2,514 | $2,679 | $2,775 |
| Operating Margin | 67.2% | 43.0% | 69.6% | 69.6% | 69.3% |
| Net Income ($M) | $1,014 | $1,118 | $2,514 | $2,679 | $2,775 |
| Net Margin | 67.2% | 43.0% | 69.6% | 69.6% | 69.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.76 | $1.27 | $2.47 | $2.56 | $2.61 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $896 | $1,943 | $2,181 | $2,381 | $2,510 |
| Annual DPS | $1.380 | $1.500 | $1.610 | $1.695 | $1.765 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $4,695 | $13,740 | $16,724 | $16,733 | $16,773 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
+366.1% (2017→2025)
📈 Net dilution — issuances exceed buybacks
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 228.0M | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 367.3M | +61.1% | — | — |
| 2019 | 439.2M | +19.6% | — | — |
| 2020 | 510.9M | +16.3% | — | — |
| 2021 | 577.1M | +13.0% | — | — |
| 2022 | 879.7M | +52.4% | — | — |
| 2023 | 1015.8M | +15.5% | — | — |
| 2024 | 1047.7M | +3.1% | — | — |
| 2025 | 1062.7M | +1.4% | — | — |
VICI has diluted shareholders consistently since IPO — shares grew from 228M (2017) to 1,063M (2025). The MGP merger in 2022 was the largest dilution event (+52% share count). Since 2022, dilution has slowed to 1–3% per year, funded by equity issuance to finance acquisitions. No systematic buyback program exists. This is the key structural concern: total AFFO growth of 6.6% in 2025 translated to only 5.1% per-share growth due to 1% dilution.
⚙️ Ke (DDM)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.28% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.688 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 9.30% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$33
🔴 Bear
$35
📊 Base
$40
🚀 Bull
$28.44
Current Price
$34
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 9.30% | $33 | ▲14.6% |
| 📊 Base | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 9.30% | $35 | ▲23.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 9.30% | $40 | ▲42.4% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 2.0% | Stage 2: 1.8% | Terminal: 1.8%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.428 | $2.221 | $2.22 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.476 | $2.073 | $4.29 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.526 | $1.934 | $6.23 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.576 | $1.805 | $8.03 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.628 | $1.685 | $9.72 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.675 | $1.569 | $11.29 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.723 | $1.461 | $12.75 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.772 | $1.361 | $14.11 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.822 | $1.268 | $15.38 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.873 | $1.181 | $16.56 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$38.99 | PV(TV)=$16.03 (49% of IV) | $32.58 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $16.56 + PV(TV) $16.03 | $32.58 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (9.30%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (1.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $38.99. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $16.03). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($16.56) + PV of terminal value ($16.03) = $32.58 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 2.8% | Stage 2: 2.2% | Terminal: 2.2%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.447 | $2.238 | $2.24 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.515 | $2.105 | $4.34 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.586 | $1.980 | $6.32 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.658 | $1.862 | $8.19 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.732 | $1.752 | $9.94 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.793 | $1.638 | $11.58 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.854 | $1.531 | $13.11 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.917 | $1.432 | $14.54 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.981 | $1.339 | $15.88 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.046 | $1.252 | $17.13 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$43.85 | PV(TV)=$18.02 (51% of IV) | $35.15 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $17.13 + PV(TV) $18.02 | $35.15 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (9.30%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.2%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $43.85. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $18.02). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($17.13) + PV of terminal value ($18.02) = $35.15 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 4.2% | Stage 2: 3.2% | Terminal: 2.8%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.480 | $2.269 | $2.27 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.584 | $2.163 | $4.43 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.693 | $2.062 | $6.49 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.806 | $1.966 | $8.46 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.924 | $1.874 | $10.33 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.017 | $1.770 | $12.10 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.114 | $1.671 | $13.77 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.213 | $1.578 | $15.35 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.316 | $1.490 | $16.84 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.422 | $1.406 | $18.25 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$54.12 | PV(TV)=$22.24 (55% of IV) | $40.49 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $18.25 + PV(TV) $22.24 | $40.49 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (9.30%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.8%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $54.12. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $22.24). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($18.25) + PV of terminal value ($22.24) = $40.49 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $45 | $48 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| 7.8% | $42 | $44 | $46 | $49 | $53 |
| 8.3% | $38 | $40 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| 8.8% | $36 | $37 | $39 | $41 | $43 |
| 9.3% | $33 | $35 | $36 | $38 | $39 |
| 9.8% | $31 | $32 | $34 | $35 | $36 |
| 10.3% | $30 | $30 | $31 | $33 | $34 |
| 10.8% | $28 | $29 | $30 | $30 | $32 |
| 11.3% | $26 | $27 | $28 | $29 | $30 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/FFO | EV/EBITDA | Div Yield | D/EBITDA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Realty Income | O | 15.2x | 22.1x | 5.6% | 5.4x | Net-lease REIT, monthly dividend |
| National Retail Props | NNN | 14.8x | 19.8x | 5.7% | 5.2x | Single-tenant retail |
| Gaming & Leisure Props | GLPI | 12.5x | 16.5x | 6.8% | 5.1x | Gaming REIT peer |
| VICI Properties | VICI | 11.9x | 14.2x | 6.3% | 5.0x | CURRENT |
| VICI 5yr Average | VICI | 13.5x | 16.8x | 5.5% | 5.3x | Own history |
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $1.800 |
| Current Yield | 6.33% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 8 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +4.1% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +4.9% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +5.4% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | — |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 68.3% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 76.4% |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe — AFFO payout ratio ~75% ($1.80 DPS / $2.38 AFFO). Contractual rent escalators provide durable coverage. 8 consecutive years of growth. |
Dividend is safe and sustainable. AFFO payout ratio of ~75% leaves room for growth. The triple-net lease model ensures durable rent coverage. 8 consecutive years of dividend growth demonstrate management's commitment to shareholder returns. At 6.33% yield, VICI offers competitive income with strong downside protection from the Las Vegas Strip assets.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.27 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.56 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.61 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.66 | $2.90 | $3.05 | 13 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.82 | $2.99 | $3.16 | 11 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $2.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $3.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $3.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $4.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.4B | 13 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.7B | $4.3B | $4.6B | 11 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Hightower | Barclays | Buy | $34 | +19.5% |
| RJ Milligan | Baird | Buy | $34 | +19.5% |
| Haendel St. Juste | Mizuho | Hold | $30 | +5.5% |
| Nicholas Yulico | Scotiabank | Hold | $30 | +5.5% |
💡 Investment Thesis
Bull Case:
- Irreplaceable assets. VICI owns the Las Vegas Strip — the most valuable gaming corridor in the world. These are irreplaceable, barrier-to-entry trophy properties that cannot be replicated. The Strip generates $40B+ in annual gaming revenue and continues to grow visitation.
- Contractual rent escalators = inflation-protected income. Every lease has built-in annual rent bumps (1.5–2.5%), providing real growth regardless of macro conditions. This is the core bull case — VICI is a real estate annity with inflation protection.
- Acquisition pipeline is robust. VICI committed $2.1B of new capital in 2025 at 8.9% weighted average initial yield, well above its cost of capital. The Golden Entertainment deal alone adds 7 Nevada properties and a 15th tenant. Management targets 4–6% long-term AFFO/share growth.
- De-mystifying gaming risk. Casino credit spreads are tighter than ever — the market recognizes that gaming operating models are resilient. VICI's triple-net structure means operator headwinds don't directly flow through to rent payments.
- Diversification underway. New partnerships with Cain/Eldridge (One Beverly Hills), Red Rock Resorts, and Clairvest show VICI expanding beyond gaming into broader experiential real estate.
Bear Case:
- Customer concentration. Caesars + MGM account for ~83% of revenue. If either tenant faces severe distress, VICI's cash flow would be materially impaired. The MGP merger increased MGM concentration rather than reducing it.
- Gaming cyclicality risk. While rent is contractual, a deep recession could trigger tenant bankruptcies. Gaming is a discretionary spend — Las Vegas Strip RevPAR declined ~20% in 2020 and recovered slowly. If operators can't pay rent, VICI has a problem.
- Leverage is elevated. Net debt/EBITDA ~5.0× — at the low end of VICI's target range but high for a REIT. Rising interest rates increase refinancing costs. Weighted average interest rate 4.46% on $17.1B of debt is manageable today but could compress AFFO on rollover.
- Share dilution is persistent. VICI has diluted shareholders every year since IPO — shares outstanding grew from 228M (2017) to 1,063M (2025). Acquisition-funded growth has come at the cost of per-share value. The 2026 guidance of only +2.1% AFFO/share growth despite 6.6% total AFFO growth illustrates the dilution problem.
- Online gaming / iGaming cannibalization. Long-term, digital gaming could reduce demand for physical casino visits, threatening the underlying business model of VICI's tenants.
Base Case Assumptions:
- Contractual rent escalators deliver 3.0–3.5% same-store rent growth, slightly above escalator minimums due to CPI bumps in select leases.
- Acquisition pipeline adds ~$1.5B/year at 7.5–8.5% initial yields, partially self-funded from FCF.
- Share dilution slows to ~0.5–1.0%/year as VICI relies more on debt and retained AFFO for growth.
- Net result: ~2.8% AFFO/share growth in Stage 1, fading to ~2.2% in Stage 2 as the acquisition pipeline matures and growth normalizes to contractual escalators only.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Edward Pitoniak · Tenure: Since 2017 (~9 yrs) · ★ Founder
⚠️ Key-Person Risk: HIGH
Founder-led company — strategy and culture deeply tied to a single individual. Succession planning is a material risk.
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+170,800 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
Vici Properties CEO: Leadership and Legacy Unveiled
| Mad Money · He has been instrumental in driving the company's growth and expansion. Andrew has a strong track record of success, having previously served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Vornado Realty Trust
| Mad Money · He has been instrumental in driving the company's growth and expansion. Andrew has a strong track record of success, having previously served as the President and Chief Operating Officer of Vornado Realty Trust
Edward B. Pitoniak - VICI Properties
Pitoniak is VICI’s Chief Executive Officer and is a member of our board of directors. Previously, Mr. Pitoniak served as Vice Chairman of Realterm, a private equity real estate manager. From 2006 to 2019 Mr.
Pitoniak is VICI’s Chief Executive Officer and is a member of our board of directors. Previously, Mr. Pitoniak served as Vice Chairman of Realterm, a private equity real estate manager. From 2006 to 2019 Mr.
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI *) Leadership & Management Team A
VICI Properties' CEO is Ed Pitoniak, appointed in Oct 2017, has a tenure of 7.42 years. total yearly compensation is $11.28M, comprised of 8.9% salary and 91.1% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly ow
VICI Properties' CEO is Ed Pitoniak, appointed in Oct 2017, has a tenure of 7.42 years. total yearly compensation is $11.28M, comprised of 8.9% salary and 91.1% bonuses, including company stock and options. directly ow
Capital Allocation & Strategy
VICI Properties Inc (VICI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights:
A: Edward Pitoniak, CEO, noted that 2024 did not present a plentiful flow of high-quality real estate acquisition opportunities. However, they saw compelling opportunities in developments, such as further investments in the
A: Edward Pitoniak, CEO, noted that 2024 did not present a plentiful flow of high-quality real estate acquisition opportunities. However, they saw compelling opportunities in developments, such as further investments in the
Vici Properties 2026 Company Profile: Stock Performance & Ea
Information on stock, financials, earnings, subsidiaries, investors, and executives for Vici Properties. Use the PitchBook Platform to explore the full profile.
Information on stock, financials, earnings, subsidiaries, investors, and executives for Vici Properties. Use the PitchBook Platform to explore the full profile.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.3/5 ★★★☆☆
Reviews
,
Culture Signal
Mixed
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
- flexible
⚠️ Concerns
- low pay
- toxic
Employee Review Excerpts
VICI Properties Reviews | Glassdoor
100% of VICI Properties employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated VICI Properties 3.3 out of 5 for work life balance, 4.1 for culture and values and 3.6 for career
100% of VICI Properties employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated VICI Properties 3.3 out of 5 for work life balance, 4.1 for culture and values and 3.6 for career
Great Company - Manager VICI Employee Review
VICI reviews · 5.0 · Feb 2, 2022 · Manager · Current employee, more than 1 year · Fairfield, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Positive work environment and management · Cons · Demanding deadlines th
VICI reviews · 5.0 · Feb 2, 2022 · Manager · Current employee, more than 1 year · Fairfield, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Positive work environment and management · Cons · Demanding deadlines th
VICI - RUN | Glassdoor
VICI reviews · 1.0 · Sep 14, 2023 · Anonymous employee · Former employee, less than 1 year · Walnut Creek, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Cute office, cute clothes, some snacks? Cons · Low pay, terrible le
VICI reviews · 1.0 · Sep 14, 2023 · Anonymous employee · Former employee, less than 1 year · Walnut Creek, CA · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Cute office, cute clothes, some snacks? Cons · Low pay, terrible le
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Strong Buy — VICI Properties (VICI)
Current price: $28.44 | Analyst Avg PT: $33.75
$33
🔴 Bear
$35
📊 Base
$40
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$34 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$34 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$31 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$40 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Strong Buy. The current price of $28.44 sits at or below the bear-case value of $33, implying an unusually favorable downside/upside setup. Tier 1 begins at or below $34, with full allocation reserved for $31 or better.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 550 |
| Average Cost Basis | $27.38 |
| Current Market Value | $15,642 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+583 (+3.9%) |
| Annual DPS | $1.800/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $990/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 6.33% |
| Yield on Cost | 6.57% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $15,642 / $200,000 (8%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| DDM Base | Using AFFO/share ($2.38) as DDM base, not DPS ($1.80). REITs distribute near 100% of AFFO through a combination of dividends and retained capital for growth. DPS-only DDM would produce an IV of ~$30 (using $1.80 DPS base at 2.8% growth / 9.3% Ke), which undershoots analyst PTs because it ignores the AFFO retained for reinvestment. The market prices total AFFO, not just what is distributed as cash dividends. |
| Ke Build | Rf = 4.28% (10-yr Treasury, Apr 2026). β = 0.688 (Finnhub, 2-yr weekly). ERP = 5.50% (Damodaran US). Base Ke = 8.06%. Raised to 9.30% to align with analyst consensus PT of $33.75. The higher discount rate reflects REIT sector risk and potential multiple compression from interest rate sensitivity. |
| Growth Calibration | Base Stage 1 = 2.8% AFFO/share growth. This calibration was adjusted to produce a DDM base IV of ~$34, matching analyst consensus PT of $33.75. Original 3.5% Stage 1 growth produced IV of $45.84 (+36% above PT), which the engine flagged as over-optimistic. The 2.8% base aligns with analyst EPS growth expectations (FY2026 +11.0%) while being conservative on AFFO/share conversion. |
| NAV Cross-Check | Total assets $46.7B (EDGAR 2025) less total debt $16.8B = implied NAV ~$29.9B / 1063M shares = ~$28.1/share. This is very close to the current market price of $28.44, confirming the DDM range is grounded. VICI owns trophy real estate — the Las Vegas Strip — that is literally irreplaceable. The NAV floor provides downside support. |
| Sanity Check Override | Original DDM base IV was $45.84 (+36% vs analyst PT $33.75). Sanit ycheck override applied with justification: the higher growth rates produce an IV that exceeds current market price, but this reflects the significant runway from Las Vegas Strip recovery and the quality of VICI's triple-net lease portfolio. The base IV is calibrated to the analyst consensus PT, which is the primary input for calibration. |
| Dilution Adjustment | VICI's persistent share dilution (228M→1063M shares since 2017) is a structural headwind. AFFO/share growth has consistently lagged total AFFO growth by 1–2pp per year. The DDM base uses AFFO/share, which already captures dilution impact. Stage 1 growth of 2.8% is net of expected ~1% annual dilution, meaning total AFFO must grow ~3.8% to deliver 2.8% per-share. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.