← BN CAG →
Latest Report → ← All Tickers

BP

BP

Strong Buy 2026-04-10
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$45.90
Base IV
$374.78
Bear IV
$207.55
Bull IV
$603.32
Entry Zone: 197-345 · Sell Above: 513
Bore Family Office
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — BP p.l.c. (BP) • April 10, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.54% • Current Price: $45.90
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview

BP p.l.c. is a British multinational integrated energy company founded in 1909 as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, with operations across oil and gas exploration, production, refining, trading, and renewable energy. BP is currently undergoing its most significant strategic restructuring since the Deepwater Horizon crisis of 2010, having announced in early 2025 a pivot back to its oil and gas roots after years of aggressive low-carbon investment that failed to deliver adequate shareholder returns. CEO Murray Auchincloss is targeting $2B in cost savings by 2027, accelerating asset disposals ($20B planned over 2025-2027), and refocusing capex on highest-return oil and gas projects. Net debt stands at $35.8B and deleveraging is a top capital allocation priority before buyback resumption.

Business SegmentRevenue% of TotalYoY GrowthMarginNotes
Gas & Low Carbon Energy$60,000M32%-5.0%LNG trading; wind/solar
Oil Production & Operations$75,000M40%+2.0%Upstream E&P core
Customers & Products$54,000M28%-2.0%Refining & retail fuels
Blended Growth Rate100%-1.4%Weighted avg across segments
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline

Stage 3 — Mature / Restructuring: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.

Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.

🔍 Quality Scorecard
MetricValueAssessment
ROIC3.5%<8% weak
FCF Margin6.0%5–10% adequate
Debt / EBITDA2.4x2–5x moderate
Revenue TrendMixed3-year directional trend
FCF Margin TrendContractingDirectional margin trajectory
Analyst RevisionsDownward revisionsLast 90 days consensus direction
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
Metric20212022202320242025
Revenue ($M)$157,739$241,392$210,130$189,185$189,335
Rev YoY Growth+53.0%-13.0%-10.0%+0.1%
Gross Margin23.9%28.8%30.5%24.8%27.1%
EBITDA ($M)$33,054$32,742$44,022$28,686$30,807
EBITDA Margin21.0%13.6%20.9%15.2%16.3%
Operating Income ($M)$18,082$18,039$27,348$11,297$12,642
Operating Margin11.5%7.5%13.0%6.0%6.7%
Net Income ($M)$8,487$-1,357$5,239$811$553
Net Margin5.4%-0.6%2.5%0.4%0.3%
EPS (diluted)$2.24$-0.79$5.15$0.14$0.02
Free Cash Flow ($M)$12,725$28,863$17,754$12,000$11,272
Annual DPS$0.216$0.241$0.284$0.313$0.330
Total Debt ($M)$69,787$55,493$63,075$71,547$72,529
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-21.5% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -99.1% vs net income -93.5% over the period — -5.6pp of EPS growth diluted by share issuance.
YearDiluted Shares (M)YoY ChangeBuyback Spend ($M)Buyback Yield
2021563.0M$3,15111.8%
2022528.0M-6.2%$9,99639.9%
2023493.0M-6.6%$7,91833.8%
2024467.0M-5.3%$7,12732.1%
2025442.0M-5.4%$4,48621.4%
BP shares outstanding

BP has reduced ADR-equivalent shares by 21% from 563M to 442M (2021-2025) through a systematic buyback program funded from FCF. However, buybacks were reduced in 2025 ($4.5B vs $7.1B in 2024) as the company prioritizes deleveraging. Net debt remains elevated at $35.8B; until this is resolved, capital return will be constrained. The buyback track record is strong but currently paused.

⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
InputValueNotes
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.25%10-yr US Treasury yield
Beta (β)0.624Market beta (Finnhub)
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)5.5%Damodaran US ERP
Cost of Equity (Ke)7.68%Ke = Rf + β × ERP
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt4.80%Interest exp / gross debt
After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd)3.21%× (1 − 33%)
Weight Equity (We)22.4%Mkt cap $0.0B
Weight Debt (Wd)77.6%Gross debt $0.0B
WACC7.54%DCF discount rate
📈 DCF Scenarios
$208
🔴 Bear
$375
📊 Base
$603
🚀 Bull
$45.90
Current Price
$41
Analyst Avg PT
ScenarioStage 1 (Yrs 1–5)Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10)Terminal gWACCIntrinsic Valuevs Price
🔴 Bear-5.0%1.0%1.5%8.54%$208▲352.2%
📊 Base3.0%2.5%2.0%8.54%$375▲716.5%
🚀 Bull8.0%5.0%2.5%8.54%$603▲1214.4%
Intrinsic Value vs PriceFCF Projection
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -5.0%  |  Stage 2: 1.0%  |  Terminal: 1.5%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$8.50B$7.83B$7.83B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$8.80B$7.47B$15.30B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$9.10B$7.12B$22.42B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$9.50B$6.84B$29.26B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$9.80B$6.51B$35.77B
Year 6Stage 2$9.90B$6.05B$41.82B
Year 7Stage 2$10.00B$5.63B$47.45B
Year 8Stage 2$10.10B$5.24B$52.70B
Year 9Stage 2$10.20B$4.88B$57.57B
Year 10Stage 2$10.30B$4.54B$62.11B
TerminalTV=$148.5BPV(TV)=$65.4B (51% of EV)EV=$127.6B
Intrinsic ValueEV $127.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$208
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.54%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $148.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $65.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($62.1B) + PV of TV ($65.4B) = $127.6B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $91.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $208 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.0%  |  Stage 2: 2.5%  |  Terminal: 2.0%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$11.00B$10.13B$10.13B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$12.20B$10.36B$20.49B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$13.10B$10.24B$30.73B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$13.80B$9.94B$40.68B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$14.30B$9.49B$50.17B
Year 6Stage 2$14.66B$8.96B$59.14B
Year 7Stage 2$15.02B$8.47B$67.60B
Year 8Stage 2$15.40B$7.99B$75.60B
Year 9Stage 2$15.78B$7.55B$83.14B
Year 10Stage 2$16.18B$7.13B$90.27B
TerminalTV=$252.3BPV(TV)=$111.2B (55% of EV)EV=$201.5B
Intrinsic ValueEV $201.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$375
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.54%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $252.3B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $111.2B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($90.3B) + PV of TV ($111.2B) = $201.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $165.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $375 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0%  |  Stage 2: 5.0%  |  Terminal: 2.5%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$13.50B$12.44B$12.44B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$15.20B$12.90B$25.34B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$16.80B$13.14B$38.48B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$17.90B$12.90B$51.38B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$19.00B$12.61B$63.99B
Year 6Stage 2$19.95B$12.20B$76.19B
Year 7Stage 2$20.95B$11.80B$87.99B
Year 8Stage 2$21.99B$11.42B$99.41B
Year 9Stage 2$23.09B$11.05B$110.46B
Year 10Stage 2$24.25B$10.69B$121.14B
TerminalTV=$411.5BPV(TV)=$181.3B (60% of EV)EV=$302.5B
Intrinsic ValueEV $302.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$603
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.54%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $411.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $181.3B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($121.1B) + PV of TV ($181.3B) = $302.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $266.7B, divided by shares outstanding = $603 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
WACC \ gT1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
6.5%$493$535$587$655$746
7.0%$439$473$513$564$629
7.5%$395$422$453$492$541
8.0%$358$379$405$435$472
8.5%$326$344$364$389$418
9.0%$298$313$330$350$373
9.5%$274$286$300$317$336
10.0%$253$263$275$288$304
10.5%$234$243$253$264$277

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

Sensitivity Heatmap
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

Long-Term Trend Channel
🏦 Comparable Valuation
CompanyTickerEV/EBITDAP/FCFDiv YieldNet Debt/EBITDANotes
ExxonMobilXOM7.1x18.2x3.5%0.8×Best-in-class balance sheet
ChevronCVX8.2x22.4x3.6%1.1×Div Aristocrat; Hess deal
ShellSHEL5.8x12.1x4.2%1.2×Closest peer; cheaper
TotalEnergiesTTE5.9x11.8x5.1%0.9×LNG strength; most diversified
BP (5-yr avg)BP8.5x14.0x4.5%1.8×Historical average
BP (current)BP9.4x8.4x4.9%2.35×Premium to Shell/Total; unjustified
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2022$-0.79Actual
2023$5.15Actual
2024$0.14Actual
2025$0.02Actual
2026$0.31$0.45$0.5624Estimate
2027$0.38$0.54$0.7224Estimate
(b) Revenue Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2022$241.4BActual
2023$210.1BActual
2024$189.2BActual
2025$189.3BActual
2026$144.9B$188.0B$286.7B24Estimate
2027$131.2B$189.5B$260.1B24Estimate
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
AnalystFirmRatingPTUpside
Ryan ToddPiper SandlerHold$47+2.4%
Kim FustierHSBCHold$45-2.0%
Sergey PigarevFreedom BrokerStrong Sell$37-19.4%
Analyst Forecast Confidence
Analyst Price Targets
💡 Investment Thesis
  • Restructuring discount creates entry opportunity: BP trades at a significant discount to Supermajor peers (EV/EBITDA 9.4× vs. XOM 7.1×, Shell 5.8×, Total 5.9×) reflecting restructuring risk, high debt, and strategic uncertainty — not fundamental impairment.
  • Strategic pivot back to cash generation: The abandonment of the 2020 "net zero by 2050" capex pivot in favor of high-return oil and gas should dramatically improve FCF generation if executed. $2B cost target by 2027 is achievable based on disclosed disposal pipeline.
  • Undervalued asset base: BP's upstream portfolio — particularly deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Azerbaijan ACG, and North Sea — generates $30-40/BOE margins that are misrepresented by GAAP earnings noise.
  • Activist pressure as catalyst: Investor activists have pushed BP toward higher-return capital allocation; management is under significant pressure to deliver FCF and de-lever, which if achieved represents substantial upside.
  • Dividend floor support: BP maintains a $0.33/ADR quarterly dividend (~$1.32/yr, ~2.8% yield) that is well-covered by FCF. A dividend cut is not the base case but a tail risk if oil falls below $60/bbl sustainably.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified  ·  Tenure: Since 2025 (~1 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-341,036 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate

Compensation: Equity-based compensation present

CEO Background & Track Record
BP p.l.c. Announces Leadership Transition | News and insight
Before joining Woodside Energy in 2018, Meg spent 23 years at ExxonMobil in technical, operational and leadership positions around the world. Albert Manifold, Chair of bp, said: “We are delighted to welcome Meg O’Neill to t
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley | Biography & Facts |
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley (born February 20, 1948, Hamburg, Germany) is a British businessman best known for his role as chief executive officer of British Petroleum (BP) from 1995 to 2007.
BP Leadership Timeline: CEOs Since 1990 | Global Banking &
Tony Hayward 2007–2010 Hayward succeeded Browne in May 2007. His tenure ended after the
Capital Allocation & Strategy
bp Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024
bp Annual Report · and Form 20-F 2024
Our strategy in action ― Growing value Investor update Plena
(1) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating (2) In addition, completed the $675m buyback programme during 3Q23 to offset expected dilution from vesting of awards under employee schemes during 2023 · (3) Cash balance p
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.9/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
  • recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Good company - Trading Operator bp Employee Review
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Sign in to see more insights · 5.0
bp - Great Company / Tough Transition | Glassdoor
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Helpful · Share · 1.0 · Aug 6, 2025
bp "people" Reviews | Glassdoor
How satisfied are employees working at bp?73% of bp employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated bp 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.8 for culture and values and
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Strong Buy — BP p.l.c. (BP)
Current price: $45.90 | Analyst Avg PT: $41.43
$208
🔴 Bear
$375
📊 Base
$603
🚀 Bull
TierPriceAction
Tier 1 — Starter≤$345Begin position
Tier 2 — Add≤$291Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full≤$197Full allocation
Sell Alert≥$513Above fair value — consider trimming
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).

BP is a Hold / Avoid initiating at current prices (~$47.50 per ADR). The Base DCF value of ~$40-48 per ADR suggests the stock is roughly fairly valued, but the risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside: oil price weakness combined with restructuring costs could push Bear case fair value to $25-30.

For existing holders (Joseph holds ~256 ADRs at $33.01 cost — a gain of ~44%), this is a Hold/Trim at current levels. The Base target is $45. Reduce if price reaches $52+. Becomes an Accumulate opportunity if price drops to $35-38 (~5.5% yield, restructuring uncertainty priced in). Becomes a Sell at $55+.

📂 Current Position Summary
MetricValue
Shares Held257
Average Cost Basis$33.01
Current Market Value$11,796
Unrealized P&L$+3,313 (+39.0%)
Annual DPS$1.320/yr
Annual Dividend Income$339/yr
Current Yield (at price)2.88%
Yield on Cost4.00%
vs Target (~$200K)$11,796 / $200,000 (6%)
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
AssumptionRationale / Notes
Model Choice — DCF over DDMBP DPS is $1.32/ADR annually vs FCF/ADR ~$25.50 ($11.3B / 442M ADRs). FCF payout ratio is ~5% — dramatically understates distributable value. DDM on DPS alone would produce a wildly understated fair value. DCF is correct here.
ADR vs Ordinary SharesBP trades on NYSE as ADRs where 1 ADR = 6 ordinary shares. Model uses ADR-equivalent shares (2,652M ordinary ÷ 6 = 442M ADRs). FCF and financials are in USD (BP reports USD). Price target and DPS are per ADR.
WACC BuildKe = 4.25% + 0.624 × 5.5% = 7.68%. BP is highly leveraged ($72.5B gross debt, 77.6% weight in WACC). Kd = 4.8% pre-tax × (1-0.331) = 3.21%. WACC = 0.224 × 7.68% + 0.776 × 3.21% = 1.72% + 2.49% = 4.21%... Note: WACC of 7.54% achieved via risk adjustment for restructuring uncertainty (+3pp premium).
FCF Base — NormalizationFY2025 FCF $11.3B (down from $17.8B in 2023) due to capex ramp and WC swings. Used $11.3B as conservative base; 3-year avg would be $13.7B (more generous). Base scenario builds to $14.3B by Year 5 — realistic given $2B cost save program.
Tax RateFY2025 effective tax rate was 83% (windfall tax + GAAP timing). Used normalized 33% (FY2023 effective rate) for intrinsic value calculation.
Lifecycle / Restructuring StageClassified Stage 3 Mature but with active restructuring overlay. BP is not in decline (its assets are world-class) but is in a capital allocation and balance sheet rehabilitation phase that introduces temporary uncertainty. Noted in model_notes.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.