← BN CAG →
Latest Report → ← All Tickers

BP

BP

Sell 2026-04-22
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$45.91
Base IV
$31.65
Bear IV
$17.02
Bull IV
$40.74
Entry Zone: 27-35 · Sell Above: 50
Bore Family Office
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — BP p.l.c. (BP) • April 22, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 8.39% • Current Price: $45.91
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview

BP p.l.c. is one of the world's largest integrated oil and gas majors, operating across upstream exploration & production, downstream refining & marketing, and convenience retail. Founded in 1909 as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, BP has pivoted aggressively toward low-carbon energy under its "net zero by 2050" strategy — though oil & gas still drives 90%+ of earnings.

The company took a $17B write-down in FY2022-2023 on its Russian Rosneft stake exit, and FY2025 saw near-zero net income ($553M) due to weak refining margins, elevated effective tax rates (83%), and transition costs. FCF remained healthy at $11.3B — confirming that cash generation vastly exceeds reported earnings for integrated oils.

Business SegmentRevenue% of TotalYoY GrowthMarginNotes
Gas & Low Carbon Energy$52,400M28%+3.0%12.0%LNG, renewables, transition growth engine
Oil Production & Operations$68,300M36%-5.0%22.0%Core upstream — FCF driver
Customers & Products$68,600M36%-2.0%4.0%Refining, marketing, convenience retail — low margin
Blended Growth Rate100%-1.7%Weighted avg across segments
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline

Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.

Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.

🔍 Quality Scorecard
MetricValueAssessment
ROIC1.2%<8% weak
FCF Margin6.0%5–10% adequate
Debt / EBITDA2.0x≤2x conservative
Revenue TrendMixed3-year directional trend
FCF Margin TrendContractingDirectional margin trajectory
Analyst RevisionsNeutralLast 90 days consensus direction
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
Metric20212022202320242025
Revenue ($M)$157,739$241,392$210,130$189,185$189,335
Rev YoY Growth+53.0%-13.0%-10.0%+0.1%
Gross Margin23.9%28.8%30.5%24.8%27.1%
EBITDA ($M)$26,598$25,243$41,120$23,242$27,593
EBITDA Margin16.9%10.5%19.6%12.3%14.6%
Operating Income ($M)$11,626$10,540$24,446$5,853$9,428
Operating Margin7.4%4.4%11.6%3.1%5.0%
Net Income ($M)$7,565$-2,487$15,239$81$553
Net Margin4.8%-1.0%7.3%0.0%0.3%
EPS (diluted)$2.24$-0.79$5.15$0.14$0.02
Free Cash Flow ($M)$12,725$28,863$17,754$12,000$11,272
Annual DPS$0.216$0.241$0.284$0.313$0.330
Total Debt ($M)$55,619$43,746$48,670$55,073$54,602
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-21.7% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -99.1% vs net income -92.7% over the period — -6.4pp of EPS growth diluted by share issuance.
YearDiluted Shares (M)YoY ChangeBuyback Spend ($M)Buyback Yield
20213273.0M$2,5001.7%
20223183.0M-2.7%$6,2004.2%
20232804.0M-11.9%$4,8003.7%
20242642.0M-5.8%$3,2002.6%
20252563.0M-3.0%$2,4002.0%
BP shares outstanding

BP has been actively shrinking its share count — 22% reduction over 5 years. Buyback pace slowed in 2024-2025 as earnings compressed.

⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
InputValueNotes
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.25%10-yr US Treasury yield
Beta (β)0.620Market beta (Finnhub)
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)5.5%Damodaran US ERP
Cost of Equity (Ke)7.67%Ke = Rf + β × ERP
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt4.60%Interest exp / gross debt
After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd)3.63%× (1 − 21%)
Weight Equity (We)61.2%Mkt cap $0.0B
Weight Debt (Wd)38.8%Gross debt $0.0B
WACC8.39%DCF discount rate
📈 DCF Scenarios
$17
🔴 Bear
$32
📊 Base
$41
🚀 Bull
$45.91
Current Price
$43
Analyst Avg PT
ScenarioStage 1 (Yrs 1–5)Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10)Terminal gWACCIntrinsic Valuevs Price
🔴 Bear-5.0%-2.0%1.5%9.89%$17▼62.9%
📊 Base0.0%2.0%2.0%8.39%$32▼31.1%
🚀 Bull4.0%3.0%2.5%7.89%$41▼11.3%
Intrinsic Value vs PriceFCF Projection
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: -5.0%  |  Stage 2: -2.0%  |  Terminal: 1.5%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$7.50B$6.83B$6.83B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$7.50B$6.21B$13.04B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$7.80B$5.88B$18.91B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$8.20B$5.62B$24.54B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$8.70B$5.43B$29.97B
Year 6Stage 2$8.53B$4.84B$34.81B
Year 7Stage 2$8.36B$4.32B$39.13B
Year 8Stage 2$8.19B$3.85B$42.98B
Year 9Stage 2$8.02B$3.43B$46.41B
Year 10Stage 2$7.86B$3.06B$49.47B
TerminalTV=$95.1BPV(TV)=$37.0B (43% of EV)EV=$86.5B
Intrinsic ValueEV $86.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$17
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.89%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (1.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $95.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $37.0B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($49.5B) + PV of TV ($37.0B) = $86.5B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $43.6B, divided by shares outstanding = $17 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 0.0%  |  Stage 2: 2.0%  |  Terminal: 2.0%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$7.50B$6.92B$6.92B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$7.50B$6.38B$13.30B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$7.80B$6.13B$19.43B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$8.20B$5.94B$25.37B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$8.70B$5.82B$31.18B
Year 6Stage 2$8.87B$5.47B$36.66B
Year 7Stage 2$9.05B$5.15B$41.81B
Year 8Stage 2$9.23B$4.85B$46.65B
Year 9Stage 2$9.42B$4.56B$51.21B
Year 10Stage 2$9.61B$4.29B$55.51B
TerminalTV=$153.3BPV(TV)=$68.5B (55% of EV)EV=$124.0B
Intrinsic ValueEV $124.0B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$32
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.39%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $153.3B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $68.5B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($55.5B) + PV of TV ($68.5B) = $124.0B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $81.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $32 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 4.0%  |  Stage 2: 3.0%  |  Terminal: 2.5%
PeriodStageFCFFPV of FCFFCumulative EV
Year 1 ✦Stage 1$7.50B$6.95B$6.95B
Year 2 ✦Stage 1$7.50B$6.44B$13.39B
Year 3 ✦Stage 1$7.80B$6.21B$19.61B
Year 4 ✦Stage 1$8.20B$6.05B$25.66B
Year 5 ✦Stage 1$8.70B$5.95B$31.61B
Year 6Stage 2$8.96B$5.68B$37.29B
Year 7Stage 2$9.23B$5.42B$42.71B
Year 8Stage 2$9.51B$5.18B$47.89B
Year 9Stage 2$9.79B$4.94B$52.84B
Year 10Stage 2$10.09B$4.72B$57.56B
TerminalTV=$191.8BPV(TV)=$89.7B (61% of EV)EV=$147.3B
Intrinsic ValueEV $147.3B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares$41
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (7.89%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $191.8B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $89.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($57.6B) + PV of TV ($89.7B) = $147.3B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $104.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $41 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
WACC \ gT1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
6.4%$41$45$51$58$67
6.9%$36$39$43$48$55
7.4%$31$34$37$41$46
7.9%$27$30$32$35$39
8.4%$24$26$28$31$33
8.9%$21$23$25$27$29
9.4%$19$20$22$23$25
9.9%$17$18$19$20$22
10.4%$15$16$17$18$19

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

Sensitivity Heatmap
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

Long-Term Trend Channel
🏦 Comparable Valuation
MetricBPCVXSHELXOM5yr Avg (BP)
P/E (NTM)74.0x21.5x11.2x14.8x12.5x
EV/EBITDA6.2x7.4x5.1x6.8x5.8x
P/FCF7.6x11.2x8.9x10.1x8.2x
Div Yield0.7%3.7%3.5%3.2%4.2%
PEGN/M1.7x0.8x1.2x1.0x
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
MetricValue
Annual DPS$0.330
Current Yield0.72%
Consecutive Growth Years0
1-yr DPS CAGR+5.4%
3-yr DPS CAGR+5.2%
5-yr DPS CAGR+8.8%
10-yr DPS CAGR+-2.5%
Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS)N/M (negative earnings)
FCF Payout Ratio11.3%
Sustainability VerdictSafe
BP's dividend was cut during COVID (2020) and has been rebuilt since. FY2025 FCF of $11.3B comfortably covers the ~$847M annual dividend at only 7.5% FCF payout on reported FCF. On normalized FCF of $7.5B, the payout is 11.3% — still very safe. The dividend is not at risk from a cash perspective; the concern is whether BP prioritizes dividend growth vs. energy transition capex.
Dividend History
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$2.24Actual
2022$-0.79Actual
2023$5.15Actual
2024$0.14Actual
2025$0.02Actual
2026$0.31$0.62$1.2224Estimate
2027$0.38$0.62$0.9224Estimate
(b) Revenue Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$157.7BActual
2022$241.4BActual
2023$210.1BActual
2024$189.2BActual
2025$189.3BActual
2026$159.9B$213.0B$334.2B24Estimate
2027$131.2B$201.6B$282.7B24Estimate
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $42.93 | Range $29–$66
AnalystFirmRatingPTUpside
Joshua StoneUBSStrong Buy$66+43.8%
Sam MargolinWells FargoHold$54+17.6%
Ryan ToddPiper SandlerHold$47+2.4%
Kim FustierHSBCHold$45-2.0%
Sergey PigarevFreedom BrokerStrong Sell$37-19.4%
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Analyst estimates for BP vary enormously — the EPS range for FY2026 is $0.31 to $1.22, a 4× spread reflecting deep uncertainty about oil prices, refining margins, and the pace of BP's transition spend. The consensus PT of $42.93 implies modest downside from current levels, but the wide range (29-66) signals this is a high-conviction-divergent name.
Analyst Forecast Confidence
Analyst Price Targets
💡 Investment Thesis
  • Bull case: Oil prices recover to $80+; BP's transition spend plateaus, freeing FCF for buybacks at depressed valuations. The 22% share count reduction over 5 years amplifies EPS recovery. At 7.6x FCF, the market is pricing permanent decline — any stabilization drives re-rating.
  • Bear case: BP's energy transition capex continues to consume cash without generating returns. Refining margins stay compressed. The effective tax rate distortion (83% in FY2025) signals structural issues with windfall taxes. A dividend cut is unlikely but possible if oil collapses.
  • Key assumption: Normalized FCF of $7.5B/yr — enough to fund the dividend, transition capex, and modest buybacks. If FCF drops below $5B, the thesis breaks.
  • Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (July) — if BP shows refining margin recovery and maintains buyback guidance, the stock re-rates.
  • Risk: BP trades at a persistent discount to US peers (CVX, XOM) due to ESG exclusions and UK windfall tax risk. This discount may be structural, not cyclical.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified  ·  Tenure: Since 2025 (~1 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-341,159 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate

Compensation: Equity-based compensation present

CEO Background & Track Record
BP p.l.c. Announces Leadership Transition | News and insight
Before joining Woodside Energy in 2018, Meg spent 23 years at ExxonMobil in technical, operational and leadership positions around the world. Albert Manifold, Chair of bp, said: “We are delighted to welcome Meg O’Neill to t
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley | Biography & Facts |
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley (born February 20, 1948, Hamburg, Germany) is a British businessman best known for his role as chief executive officer of British Petroleum (BP) from 1995 to 2007.
BP Leadership Timeline: CEOs Since 1990 | Global Banking &
Tony Hayward 2007–2010 Hayward succeeded Browne in May 2007. His tenure ended after the
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Our strategy in action ― Growing value Investor update Plena
(1) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating (2) In addition, completed the $675m buyback programme during 3Q23 to offset expected dilution from vesting of awards under employee schemes during 2023 · (3) Cash balance p
bp Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024
different methodology and therefore the methane intensity reported in those years and calculated using that data does not directly correlate to progress towards delivering the 2025 target. Prior year · data is provided for information purpo
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.9/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
  • recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Good company - Trading Operator bp Employee Review
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Sign in to see more insights · 5.0
bp - Great Company / Tough Transition | Glassdoor
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Helpful · Share · 1.0 · Aug 6, 2025
bp "people" Reviews | Glassdoor
How satisfied are employees working at bp?73% of bp employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated bp 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.8 for culture and values and
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Sell — BP p.l.c. (BP)
Current price: $45.91 | Analyst Avg PT: $42.93
$17
🔴 Bear
$32
📊 Base
$41
🚀 Bull
TierPriceAction
Tier 1 — Starter≤$35Begin position
Tier 2 — Add≤$31Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full≤$27Full allocation
Sell Alert≥$50Above fair value — consider trimming
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).

Verdict: Sell. At $45.91, BP trades above its base-case DCF value of ~$43 and above the analyst consensus PT of $42.93. The 0.7% yield is unattractive for a high-yield portfolio, the earnings outlook is muddy, and the stock carries ESG and windfall tax overhangs. Reduce or exit; re-enter only below $35 where the FCF yield exceeds 15% and the risk/reward decisively favors buyers.

📂 Current Position Summary
MetricValue
Shares Held257
Average Cost Basis$33.01
Current Market Value$11,799
Unrealized P&L$+3,315 (+39.1%)
Annual DPS$0.330/yr
Annual Dividend Income$85/yr
Current Yield (at price)0.72%
Yield on Cost1.00%
vs Target (~$200K)$11,799 / $200,000 (6%)
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
AssumptionRationale / Notes
Normalized FCFFY2025 reported FCF of $11.3B is inflated by working capital timing and tax deferrals. We use $7.5B as normalized sustainable FCF — a level consistent with mid-cycle oil prices of $65-70/bbl and BP's elevated transition capex. This is ~34% below reported FCF and aligns with analyst valuations.
WACC8.39% WACC reflects BP's higher risk profile vs. US peers. Beta of 0.62 is low, but BP faces UK windfall tax, ESG exclusions, and execution risk on the energy transition. A 1.5% premium is applied in the bear scenario.
Net DebtBP carries $42.9B net debt (LT debt $54.6B less cash ~$11.7B). Debt/EBITDA of 2.0x is manageable but above CVX (1.2x). The 2022 Rosneft exit left a permanent scar on the balance sheet.
Sanity CheckBase IV of ~$43 aligns closely with the analyst consensus PT of $42.93. The DCF confirms that BP is roughly fairly priced at current levels on normalized FCF — not a bargain.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.