BP
BP
Accumulate 2026-04-15
Model
DCF
Price at Report
$46.17
Base IV
$56.23
Bear IV
$33.96
Bull IV
$85.59
Entry Zone: 32-52 · Sell Above: 73
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — BP p.l.c. (BP) • April 15, 2026
Unlevered DCF (FCFF @ WACC) • Discount Rate: 9.32% • Current Price: $46.17
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
BP p.l.c. is one of the world's largest integrated energy companies, with operations across upstream (exploration & production), downstream (refining & marketing), and renewable & energy solutions segments. Following the Deepwater Horizon incident and subsequent strategic reset, BP has divested $35B+ in assets, reduced debt, and shifted toward a lower-carbon portfolio while maintaining strong upstream cash generation.
The company is currently in an early recovery phase, with management focusing on balance sheet discipline, shareholder returns via buybacks and dividends, and strategic capital allocation. BP's upstream assets generate robust free cash flow even at lower oil prices, and the company benefits from its integrated refining footprint and retail network.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upstream (O&G Production) | $132,000M | 69% | +3.0% | — | Low breakeven, high margin |
| Downstream (Refining & Marketing) | $50,000M | 26% | +1.0% | — | Margin compression in 2025 |
| Renewables & Energy Solutions | $7,000M | 4% | +15.0% | — | Early stage, capex heavy |
| BPC (BP Capital Partners) | $500M | 1% | +5.0% | — | Joint ventures, asset monetization |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +3.0% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline
Decline
Stage 3 — Recovery/Re-rating: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
🔍 Quality Scorecard
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 4.5% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 5.9% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 1.1x | ≤2x conservative |
| Revenue Trend | Mixed | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Contracting | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Downward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
⚠️ Elevated value trap risk — verify thesis before acting
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $157,739 | $241,392 | $210,130 | $189,185 | $189,335 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +53.0% | -13.0% | -10.0% | +0.1% |
| Gross Margin | 23.9% | 28.8% | 30.5% | 24.8% | 27.1% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $26,598 | $25,243 | $41,120 | $23,242 | $27,593 |
| EBITDA Margin | 16.9% | 10.5% | 19.6% | 12.3% | 14.6% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $11,626 | $10,540 | $24,446 | $5,853 | $9,428 |
| Operating Margin | 7.4% | 4.4% | 11.6% | 3.1% | 5.0% |
| Net Income ($M) | $7,565 | $-2,487 | $15,239 | $1,154 | $5,538 |
| Net Margin | 4.8% | -1.0% | 7.3% | 0.6% | 2.9% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.25 | $-0.79 | $5.27 | $0.14 | $0.02 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $12,725 | $28,863 | $17,754 | $12,000 | $11,272 |
| Annual DPS | $0.216 | $0.241 | $0.284 | $0.313 | $0.330 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $33,000 | $38,000 | $33,500 | $32,000 | $25,000 |
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-22.6% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
EPS Amplification
EPS grew -99.1% vs net income -26.8% over the period — -72.3pp of EPS growth diluted by share issuance.
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3355.0M | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 3165.0M | -5.7% | — | — |
| 2023 | 2893.0M | -8.6% | $3,500 | 2.6% |
| 2024 | 2731.0M | -5.6% | $5,000 | 4.0% |
| 2025 | 2598.0M | -4.9% | $5,000 | 4.2% |
BP restarted buybacks in 2023 after divestment proceeds funded debt reduction. Program continues through 2027 at $3.5B/yr minimum. Share count down 23% from 2021 peak.
⚙️ WACC Build (DCF)
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 1.150 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 10.53% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.80% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.79% | × (1 − 21%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 82.6% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 17.4% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 9.32% | DCF discount rate |
📈 DCF Scenarios
$34
🔴 Bear
$56
📊 Base
$86
🚀 Bull
$46.17
Current Price
$43
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 1.0% | 0.5% | 2.0% | 10.32% | $34 | ▼26.4% |
| 📊 Base | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 9.32% | $56 | ▲21.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 8.82% | $86 | ▲85.4% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 1.0% | Stage 2: 0.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.50B | $8.61B | $8.61B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.80B | $8.05B | $16.66B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.20B | $7.60B | $24.26B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.50B | $7.09B | $31.35B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $10.70B | $6.55B | $37.90B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $10.75B | $5.97B | $43.86B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $10.81B | $5.43B | $49.30B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.86B | $4.95B | $54.25B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $10.92B | $4.51B | $58.76B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.97B | $4.11B | $62.87B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$134.5B | PV(TV)=$50.4B (44% of EV) | EV=$113.2B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $113.2B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $34 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (10.32%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $134.5B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $50.4B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($62.9B) + PV of TV ($50.4B) = $113.2B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $88.2B, divided by shares outstanding = $34 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.5%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.00B | $10.06B | $10.06B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.50B | $9.62B | $19.68B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.00B | $9.19B | $28.87B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.50B | $8.75B | $37.62B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.00B | $8.33B | $45.95B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $13.32B | $7.81B | $53.75B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $13.66B | $7.32B | $61.07B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $14.00B | $6.86B | $67.94B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $14.35B | $6.43B | $74.37B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $14.71B | $6.03B | $80.41B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$221.1B | PV(TV)=$90.7B (53% of EV) | EV=$171.1B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $171.1B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $56 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (9.32%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $221.1B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $90.7B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($80.4B) + PV of TV ($90.7B) = $171.1B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $146.1B, divided by shares outstanding = $56 per share.
✦ Year-by-year analyst consensus FCF estimates (Base scenario)
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 6.5% | Stage 2: 4.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.50B | $11.49B | $11.49B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.20B | $11.15B | $22.63B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.00B | $10.86B | $33.50B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.80B | $10.55B | $44.05B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $15.60B | $10.22B | $54.28B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $16.30B | $9.82B | $64.09B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $17.04B | $9.43B | $73.52B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $17.80B | $9.05B | $82.57B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $18.60B | $8.69B | $91.27B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $19.44B | $8.35B | $99.62B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$344.0B | PV(TV)=$147.8B (60% of EV) | EV=$247.4B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $247.4B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $86 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected free cash flow is discounted back at WACC (8.82%) to get its present value. After Year 10, FCF grows at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of FCF11 / (WACC − gT) = $344.0B. That terminal value is discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $147.8B). Enterprise Value = PV of FCFs ($99.6B) + PV of TV ($147.8B) = $247.4B. Subtracting net debt gives equity value of $222.4B, divided by shares outstanding = $86 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $76 | $81 | $87 | $95 | $104 |
| 7.8% | $69 | $73 | $78 | $84 | $91 |
| 8.3% | $63 | $67 | $70 | $75 | $81 |
| 8.8% | $58 | $61 | $64 | $68 | $72 |
| 9.3% | $54 | $56 | $59 | $62 | $65 |
| 9.8% | $50 | $52 | $54 | $56 | $59 |
| 10.3% | $46 | $48 | $50 | $52 | $54 |
| 10.8% | $43 | $45 | $46 | $48 | $50 |
| 11.3% | $40 | $42 | $43 | $45 | $46 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🏦 Comparable Valuation
| Company | Ticker | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exxon Mobil | XOM | 16.8x | 9.2x | 11.5x | 3.7% | Integrated supermajor |
| Chevron | CVX | 18.2x | 9.8x | 11.0x | 3.7% | Integrated supermajor |
| BP | BP | 23.3x | 11.4x | 12.3x | 4.3% | Lower growth, higher yield |
| Enbridge | ENB | 11.2x | 7.1x | 8.4x | 8.2% | Canadian MLP-style |
| BP (own history 5-yr) | BP | 14.5x | 8.9x | 9.8x | 4.0% | 5-yr average multiples |
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $-0.13 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $0.86 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.02 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.00 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.30 | $0.62 | $1.22 | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.40 | $0.62 | $0.92 | 24 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $239.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $208.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $187.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $187.6B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $159.9B | $208.0B | $286.7B | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $131.2B | $197.3B | $260.1B | 24 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Margolin | Wells Fargo | Hold | $54 | +17.0% |
| Ryan Todd | Piper Sandler | Hold | $47 | +1.8% |
| Kim Fustier | HSBC | Hold | $45 | -2.5% |
| Ryan Todd | Piper Sandler | Hold | $44 | -4.7% |
| Sergey Pigarev | Freedom Broker | Strong Sell | $37 | -19.9% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- Undervalued at current price: BP trades at ~0.6x forward EV/EBITDA vs. 5-yr avg of 0.9x; 4.3% yield adds appeal.
- Shareholder return commitment: $15B+ buyback program running through 2027, plus 4.3% dividend yield.
- Capital discipline focus: Debt reduced to $25B (from $40B post-Panama), investment grade rating maintained.
- Upstream quality: Low breakeven costs ($35-40/bbl), cash flow resilience even in $50 oil environment.
- Re-rating potential: If oil prices stabilize and transition investments pay off, EV/EBITDA multiple could expand to 0.8-1.0x.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: Not identified · Tenure: Since 2025 (~1 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
-341,159 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
BP p.l.c. Announces Leadership Transition | News and insight
Before joining Woodside Energy in 2018, Meg spent 23 years at ExxonMobil in technical, operational and leadership positions around the world. Albert Manifold, Chair of bp, said: “We are delighted to welcome Meg O’Neill to t
Before joining Woodside Energy in 2018, Meg spent 23 years at ExxonMobil in technical, operational and leadership positions around the world. Albert Manifold, Chair of bp, said: “We are delighted to welcome Meg O’Neill to t
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley | Biography & Facts |
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley (born February 20, 1948, Hamburg, Germany) is a British businessman best known for his role as chief executive officer of British Petroleum (BP) from 1995 to 2007.
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley (born February 20, 1948, Hamburg, Germany) is a British businessman best known for his role as chief executive officer of British Petroleum (BP) from 1995 to 2007.
BP Leadership Timeline: CEOs Since 1990 | Global Banking &
Tony Hayward 2007–2010 Hayward succeeded Browne in May 2007. His tenure ended after the
Tony Hayward 2007–2010 Hayward succeeded Browne in May 2007. His tenure ended after the
Capital Allocation & Strategy
Our strategy in action ― Growing value Investor update Plena
(1) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating (2) In addition, completed the $675m buyback programme during 3Q23 to offset expected dilution from vesting of awards under employee schemes during 2023 · (3) Cash balance p
(1) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating (2) In addition, completed the $675m buyback programme during 3Q23 to offset expected dilution from vesting of awards under employee schemes during 2023 · (3) Cash balance p
bp Annual Report and Form 20-F 2024
different methodology and therefore the methane intensity reported in those years and calculated using that data does not directly correlate to progress towards delivering the 2025 target. Prior year · data is provided for information purpo
different methodology and therefore the methane intensity reported in those years and calculated using that data does not directly correlate to progress towards delivering the 2025 target. Prior year · data is provided for information purpo
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.9/5 ★★★★☆
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
Good company - Trading Operator bp Employee Review
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Sign in to see more insights · 5.0
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Sign in to see more insights · 5.0
bp - Great Company / Tough Transition | Glassdoor
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Helpful · Share · 1.0 · Aug 6, 2025
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Helpful · Share · 1.0 · Aug 6, 2025
bp "people" Reviews | Glassdoor
How satisfied are employees working at bp?73% of bp employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated bp 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.8 for culture and values and
How satisfied are employees working at bp?73% of bp employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated bp 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.8 for culture and values and
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DCF Verdict: Accumulate — BP p.l.c. (BP)
Current price: $46.17 | Analyst Avg PT: $42.93
$34
🔴 Bear
$56
📊 Base
$86
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$52 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$45 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$32 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$73 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Accumulate. At $46.17, the shares trade meaningfully below the base-case value of $56, implying roughly 22% upside to fair value. Starter zone is $52 or below, with more aggressive adds on deeper weakness.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DCF ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-22 — DCF Sell 2026-04-21 — DCF Strong Buy 2026-04-20 — DCF Strong Buy 2026-04-19 — DCF Strong Buy 2026-04-18 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-16 — DCF Strong Buy 2026-04-15 — DCF Accumulate 2026-04-13 — DCF Strong Buy 2026-04-10 — DCF Strong Buy 2026-04-09 — DCF Strong Buy 2026-04-08 — DCF Accumulate 2026-03-06 — DDM Hold