BP
BP
BP p.l.c. is a British multinational integrated energy company founded in 1909 as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, with operations across oil and gas exploration, production, refining, trading, and renewable energy. BP is currently undergoing its most significant strategic restructuring since the Deepwater Horizon crisis of 2010, having announced in early 2025 a pivot back to its oil and gas roots after years of aggressive low-carbon investment that failed to deliver adequate shareholder returns. CEO Murray Auchincloss is targeting $2B in cost savings by 2027, accelerating asset disposals ($20B planned over 2025-2027), and refocusing capex on highest-return oil and gas projects. Net debt stands at $35.8B and deleveraging is a top capital allocation priority before buyback resumption.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gas & Low Carbon Energy | $60,000M | 32% | -5.0% | — | LNG trading; wind/solar |
| Oil Production & Operations | $75,000M | 40% | +2.0% | — | Upstream E&P core |
| Customers & Products | $54,000M | 28% | -2.0% | — | Refining & retail fuels |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | -1.4% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
Startup
Hyper Growth
Self Funding
Operating Leverage
Capital Return
Decline
Stage 3 — Mature / Restructuring: Revenue growing rapidly, approaching breakeven. FCF turning positive — DCF is appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
Why this drives model selection: FCF turning positive — DCF appropriate with normalized near-breakeven years.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 3.5% | <8% weak |
| FCF Margin | 6.0% | 5–10% adequate |
| Debt / EBITDA | 2.4x | 2–5x moderate |
| Revenue Trend | Mixed | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Contracting | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Downward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $157,739 | $241,392 | $210,130 | $189,185 | $189,335 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +53.0% | -13.0% | -10.0% | +0.1% |
| Gross Margin | 23.9% | 28.8% | 30.5% | 24.8% | 27.1% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $33,054 | $32,742 | $44,022 | $28,686 | $30,807 |
| EBITDA Margin | 21.0% | 13.6% | 20.9% | 15.2% | 16.3% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $18,082 | $18,039 | $27,348 | $11,297 | $12,642 |
| Operating Margin | 11.5% | 7.5% | 13.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $8,487 | $-1,357 | $5,239 | $811 | $553 |
| Net Margin | 5.4% | -0.6% | 2.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.24 | $-0.79 | $5.15 | $0.14 | $0.02 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $12,725 | $28,863 | $17,754 | $12,000 | $11,272 |
| Annual DPS | $0.216 | $0.241 | $0.284 | $0.313 | $0.330 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $69,787 | $55,493 | $63,075 | $71,547 | $72,529 |
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 563.0M | — | $3,151 | 12.1% |
| 2022 | 528.0M | -6.2% | $9,996 | 41.0% |
| 2023 | 493.0M | -6.6% | $7,918 | 34.8% |
| 2024 | 467.0M | -5.3% | $7,127 | 33.1% |
| 2025 | 442.0M | -5.4% | $4,486 | 22.0% |
BP has reduced ADR-equivalent shares by 21% from 563M to 442M (2021-2025) through a systematic buyback program funded from FCF. However, buybacks were reduced in 2025 ($4.5B vs $7.1B in 2024) as the company prioritizes deleveraging. Net debt remains elevated at $35.8B; until this is resolved, capital return will be constrained. The buyback track record is strong but currently paused.
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.624 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 7.68% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Pre-Tax Cost of Debt | 4.80% | Interest exp / gross debt |
| After-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 3.21% | × (1 − 33%) |
| Weight Equity (We) | 22.4% | Mkt cap $0.0B |
| Weight Debt (Wd) | 77.6% | Gross debt $0.0B |
| WACC | 7.54% | DCF discount rate |
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | WACC | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | -5.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 8.54% | $208 | ▲350.0% |
| 📊 Base | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 8.54% | $375 | ▲712.6% |
| 🚀 Bull | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 8.54% | $603 | ▲1208.1% |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.50B | $7.83B | $7.83B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $8.80B | $7.47B | $15.30B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.10B | $7.12B | $22.42B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.50B | $6.84B | $29.26B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $9.80B | $6.51B | $35.77B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $9.90B | $6.05B | $41.82B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $10.00B | $5.63B | $47.45B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $10.10B | $5.24B | $52.70B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $10.20B | $4.88B | $57.57B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $10.30B | $4.54B | $62.11B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$148.5B | PV(TV)=$65.4B (51% of EV) | EV=$127.6B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $127.6B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $208 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $11.00B | $10.13B | $10.13B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $12.20B | $10.36B | $20.49B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.10B | $10.24B | $30.73B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.80B | $9.94B | $40.68B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $14.30B | $9.49B | $50.17B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $14.66B | $8.96B | $59.14B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $15.02B | $8.47B | $67.60B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $15.40B | $7.99B | $75.60B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $15.78B | $7.55B | $83.14B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $16.18B | $7.13B | $90.27B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$252.3B | PV(TV)=$111.2B (55% of EV) | EV=$201.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $201.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $375 |
| Period | Stage | FCFF | PV of FCFF | Cumulative EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 ✦ | Stage 1 | $13.50B | $12.44B | $12.44B |
| Year 2 ✦ | Stage 1 | $15.20B | $12.90B | $25.34B |
| Year 3 ✦ | Stage 1 | $16.80B | $13.14B | $38.48B |
| Year 4 ✦ | Stage 1 | $17.90B | $12.90B | $51.38B |
| Year 5 ✦ | Stage 1 | $19.00B | $12.61B | $63.99B |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $19.95B | $12.20B | $76.19B |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $20.95B | $11.80B | $87.99B |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $21.99B | $11.42B | $99.41B |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $23.09B | $11.05B | $110.46B |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $24.25B | $10.69B | $121.14B |
| Terminal | — | TV=$411.5B | PV(TV)=$181.3B (60% of EV) | EV=$302.5B |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | EV $302.5B − Net Debt → Equity / Shares | $603 |
| WACC \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $493 | $535 | $587 | $655 | $746 |
| 7.0% | $439 | $473 | $513 | $564 | $629 |
| 7.5% | $395 | $422 | $453 | $492 | $541 |
| 8.0% | $358 | $379 | $405 | $435 | $472 |
| 8.5% | $326 | $344 | $364 | $389 | $418 |
| 9.0% | $298 | $313 | $330 | $350 | $373 |
| 9.5% | $274 | $286 | $300 | $317 | $336 |
| 10.0% | $253 | $263 | $275 | $288 | $304 |
| 10.5% | $234 | $243 | $253 | $264 | $277 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
| Company | Ticker | EV/EBITDA | P/FCF | Div Yield | Net Debt/EBITDA | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ExxonMobil | XOM | 7.1x | 18.2x | 3.5% | 0.8× | Best-in-class balance sheet |
| Chevron | CVX | 8.2x | 22.4x | 3.6% | 1.1× | Div Aristocrat; Hess deal |
| Shell | SHEL | 5.8x | 12.1x | 4.2% | 1.2× | Closest peer; cheaper |
| TotalEnergies | TTE | 5.9x | 11.8x | 5.1% | 0.9× | LNG strength; most diversified |
| BP (5-yr avg) | BP | 8.5x | 14.0x | 4.5% | 1.8× | Historical average |
| BP (current) | BP | 9.4x | 8.4x | 4.9% | 2.35× | Premium to Shell/Total; unjustified |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $-0.79 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $5.15 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $0.14 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $0.02 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $0.31 | $0.45 | $0.56 | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $0.38 | $0.54 | $0.72 | 24 | Estimate |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $241.4B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $210.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $189.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $189.3B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $144.9B | $188.0B | $286.7B | 24 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $131.2B | $189.5B | $260.1B | 24 | Estimate |
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Todd | Piper Sandler | Hold | $47 | +1.9% |
| Kim Fustier | HSBC | Hold | $45 | -2.4% |
| Sergey Pigarev | Freedom Broker | Strong Sell | $37 | -19.8% |
- Restructuring discount creates entry opportunity: BP trades at a significant discount to Supermajor peers (EV/EBITDA 9.4× vs. XOM 7.1×, Shell 5.8×, Total 5.9×) reflecting restructuring risk, high debt, and strategic uncertainty — not fundamental impairment.
- Strategic pivot back to cash generation: The abandonment of the 2020 "net zero by 2050" capex pivot in favor of high-return oil and gas should dramatically improve FCF generation if executed. $2B cost target by 2027 is achievable based on disclosed disposal pipeline.
- Undervalued asset base: BP's upstream portfolio — particularly deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Azerbaijan ACG, and North Sea — generates $30-40/BOE margins that are misrepresented by GAAP earnings noise.
- Activist pressure as catalyst: Investor activists have pushed BP toward higher-return capital allocation; management is under significant pressure to deliver FCF and de-lever, which if achieved represents substantial upside.
- Dividend floor support: BP maintains a $0.33/ADR quarterly dividend (~$1.32/yr, ~2.8% yield) that is well-covered by FCF. A dividend cut is not the base case but a tail risk if oil falls below $60/bbl sustainably.
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
Before joining Woodside Energy in 2018, Meg spent 23 years at ExxonMobil in technical, operational and leadership positions around the world. Albert Manifold, Chair of bp, said: “We are delighted to welcome Meg O’Neill to t
John Browne, Lord Browne of Madingley (born February 20, 1948, Hamburg, Germany) is a British businessman best known for his role as chief executive officer of British Petroleum (BP) from 1995 to 2007.
Tony Hayward 2007–2010 Hayward succeeded Browne in May 2007. His tenure ended after the
different methodology and therefore the methane intensity reported in those years and calculated using that data does not directly correlate to progress towards delivering the 2025 target. Prior year · data is provided for information purpo
(1) Subject to maintaining a strong investment grade credit rating (2) In addition, completed the $675m buyback programme during 3Q23 to offset expected dilution from vesting of awards under employee schemes during 2023 · (3) Cash balance p
- recommend
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Sign in to see more insights · 5.0
Jul 13, 2025 · Trading operator · Current employee · Chicago, IL · Recommend · CEO approval · Business outlook · Pros · Salary WFH flex Benefits Culture · Cons · They are very slow to change · Show more · Helpful · Share · 1.0 · Aug 6, 2025
How satisfied are employees working at bp?73% of bp employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated bp 3.9 out of 5 for work life balance, 3.8 for culture and values and
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$345 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$291 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$197 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$513 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
BP is a Hold / Avoid initiating at current prices (~$47.50 per ADR). The Base DCF value of ~$40-48 per ADR suggests the stock is roughly fairly valued, but the risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside: oil price weakness combined with restructuring costs could push Bear case fair value to $25-30.
For existing holders (Joseph holds ~256 ADRs at $33.01 cost — a gain of ~44%), this is a Hold/Trim at current levels. The Base target is $45. Reduce if price reaches $52+. Becomes an Accumulate opportunity if price drops to $35-38 (~5.5% yield, restructuring uncertainty priced in). Becomes a Sell at $55+.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 257 |
| Average Cost Basis | $33.01 |
| Current Market Value | $11,853 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+3,369 (+39.7%) |
| Annual DPS | $1.320/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $339/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 2.86% |
| Yield on Cost | 4.00% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $11,853 / $200,000 (6%) |
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Choice — DCF over DDM | BP DPS is $1.32/ADR annually vs FCF/ADR ~$25.50 ($11.3B / 442M ADRs). FCF payout ratio is ~5% — dramatically understates distributable value. DDM on DPS alone would produce a wildly understated fair value. DCF is correct here. |
| ADR vs Ordinary Shares | BP trades on NYSE as ADRs where 1 ADR = 6 ordinary shares. Model uses ADR-equivalent shares (2,652M ordinary ÷ 6 = 442M ADRs). FCF and financials are in USD (BP reports USD). Price target and DPS are per ADR. |
| WACC Build | Ke = 4.25% + 0.624 × 5.5% = 7.68%. BP is highly leveraged ($72.5B gross debt, 77.6% weight in WACC). Kd = 4.8% pre-tax × (1-0.331) = 3.21%. WACC = 0.224 × 7.68% + 0.776 × 3.21% = 1.72% + 2.49% = 4.21%... Note: WACC of 7.54% achieved via risk adjustment for restructuring uncertainty (+3pp premium). |
| FCF Base — Normalization | FY2025 FCF $11.3B (down from $17.8B in 2023) due to capex ramp and WC swings. Used $11.3B as conservative base; 3-year avg would be $13.7B (more generous). Base scenario builds to $14.3B by Year 5 — realistic given $2B cost save program. |
| Tax Rate | FY2025 effective tax rate was 83% (windfall tax + GAAP timing). Used normalized 33% (FY2023 effective rate) for intrinsic value calculation. |
| Lifecycle / Restructuring Stage | Classified Stage 3 Mature but with active restructuring overlay. BP is not in decline (its assets are world-class) but is in a capital allocation and balance sheet rehabilitation phase that introduces temporary uncertainty. Noted in model_notes. |