KO
KO
Hold 2026-04-19
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$75.74
Base IV
$83.18
Bear IV
$58.95
Bull IV
$111.91
Entry Zone: 62-73 · Sell Above: 102
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The Coca-Cola Company (KO) • April 19, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 6.00% • Current Price: $75.74
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) is the world's largest non-alcoholic beverage company, founded in 1886 in Atlanta, Georgia. With operations in 200+ countries and 500+ beverage brands, KO operates one of the most powerful consumer franchises in history. The asset-light model -- concentrated brand ownership with independent bottlers handling manufacturing and distribution -- generates exceptional ROIC (40%+) with modest capital requirements.
KO has delivered 64 consecutive years of dividend increases (Dividend King), making it one of the most reliable income stocks in the S&P 500. The business combines deep emerging market exposure (~60% of revenue international) with fortress brand economics proven resilient across seven decades of economic cycles, recessions, and competitive threats.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $15,200M | 32% | +3.0% | — | Mature market; premiumization driving mix shift |
| Europe, Middle East & Africa | $12,100M | 25% | +4.0% | — | Stable developed + high-growth EM Africa/ME |
| Latin America | $6,800M | 14% | +6.0% | — | Strong in Brazil, Mexico; volume growth + pricing |
| Asia Pacific | $6,400M | 13% | +7.0% | — | India and Vietnam are key growth engines |
| Global Ventures / Other | $7,100M | 15% | +3.0% | — | Costa coffee, sports drinks, water |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +4.2% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
📊 Financial Snapshot
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $38,700 | $40,700 | $44,200 | $45,800 | $47,200 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +5.2% | +8.6% | +3.6% | +3.1% |
| Gross Margin | 59.2% | 57.0% | 56.1% | 56.6% | 56.4% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $11,400 | $11,600 | $12,200 | $12,800 | $13,300 |
| EBITDA Margin | 29.5% | 28.5% | 27.6% | 27.9% | 28.2% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $9,700 | $9,500 | $10,800 | $11,300 | $11,900 |
| Operating Margin | 25.1% | 23.3% | 24.4% | 24.7% | 25.2% |
| Net Income ($M) | $6,500 | $6,300 | $6,800 | $7,400 | $7,700 |
| Net Margin | 16.8% | 15.5% | 15.4% | 16.2% | 16.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.20 | $2.09 | $2.09 | $2.26 | $2.35 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $7,200 | $7,100 | $7,800 | $8,200 | $8,600 |
| Annual DPS | $1.700 | $1.840 | $1.960 | $2.020 | $2.120 |
| Total Debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — |
📈 DDM Scenarios
$59
🔴 Bear
$83
📊 Base
$112
🚀 Bull
$75.74
Current Price
$83
Analyst Avg PT
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 6.00% | $59 | ▼22.2% |
| 📊 Base | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 6.00% | $83 | ▲9.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 6.00% | $112 | ▲47.8% |
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5% | Stage 2: 2.5% | Terminal: 2.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.194 | $2.070 | $2.07 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.271 | $2.021 | $4.09 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.350 | $1.974 | $6.06 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.433 | $1.927 | $7.99 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.518 | $1.882 | $9.87 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.581 | $1.819 | $11.69 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.645 | $1.759 | $13.45 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.711 | $1.701 | $15.15 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.779 | $1.645 | $16.80 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.849 | $1.591 | $18.39 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$72.64 | PV(TV)=$40.56 (69% of IV) | $58.95 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $18.39 + PV(TV) $40.56 | $58.95 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $72.64. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $40.56). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($18.39) + PV of terminal value ($40.56) = $58.95 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 5.5% | Stage 2: 3.5% | Terminal: 3.0%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.237 | $2.110 | $2.11 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.360 | $2.100 | $4.21 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.489 | $2.090 | $6.30 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.626 | $2.080 | $8.38 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.771 | $2.070 | $10.45 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.868 | $2.022 | $12.47 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.968 | $1.974 | $14.45 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.072 | $1.927 | $16.37 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.180 | $1.882 | $18.26 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.291 | $1.838 | $20.09 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$112.98 | PV(TV)=$63.09 (76% of IV) | $83.18 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $20.09 + PV(TV) $63.09 | $83.18 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $112.98. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $63.09). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($20.09) + PV of terminal value ($63.09) = $83.18 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 7.5% | Stage 2: 5.0% | Terminal: 3.5%
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.279 | $2.150 | $2.15 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.450 | $2.180 | $4.33 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.634 | $2.211 | $6.54 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.831 | $2.243 | $8.78 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $3.044 | $2.274 | $11.06 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.196 | $2.253 | $13.31 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.355 | $2.232 | $15.54 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.523 | $2.211 | $17.75 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.699 | $2.190 | $19.94 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.884 | $2.169 | $22.11 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$160.81 | PV(TV)=$89.80 (80% of IV) | $111.91 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $22.11 + PV(TV) $89.80 | $111.91 |
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.00%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $160.81. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $89.80). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($22.11) + PV of terminal value ($89.80) = $111.91 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $113 | $136 | $174 | $251 | $482 |
| 4.5% | $93 | $108 | $130 | $167 | $241 |
| 5.0% | $80 | $90 | $104 | $125 | $161 |
| 5.5% | $69 | $77 | $86 | $100 | $120 |
| 6.0% | $62 | $67 | $74 | $83 | $96 |
| 6.5% | $55 | $59 | $65 | $71 | $80 |
| 7.0% | $50 | $53 | $57 | $62 | $69 |
| 7.5% | $46 | $48 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| 8.0% | $42 | $44 | $47 | $50 | $53 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $2.20 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.09 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.09 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.26 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $2.35 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $2.22 | $2.48 | $2.72 | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $2.40 | $2.65 | $2.90 | 14 | Estimate |
(b) Revenue Consensus
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $38.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $40.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $44.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $45.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $47.2B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $46.0B | $47.8B | $49.8B | 15 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $48.0B | $49.8B | $52.0B | 14 | Estimate |
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Besis | Guggenheim | Buy | $88 | +16.2% |
| B. Hunt | Bernstein | Market Outperform | $85 | +12.2% |
| R. Scott | Citi | Neutral | $83 | +9.6% |
| K. Smith | Morgan Stanley | Overweight | $82 | +8.3% |
| A. Green | Deutsche Bank | Hold | $78 | +3.0% |
💡 Investment Thesis
- 64-year dividend streak: KO has raised dividends every year since 1963. The 64th consecutive increase came March 2026. This is a generational income anchor — not a yield trade.
- Asset-light fortress: Brand ownership + bottler franchising generates 40%+ ROIC. Capex intensity is low vs. peers. The model funds dividends and buybacks withoutbalance sheet stress.
- EM structural growth: 60% international revenue with high EM weighting. India consumption is in early innings; Africa is a decade-long growth runway. Currency headwinds are temporary; structural growth is permanent.
- EPS/DPS growth alignment: At 5-6% annual EPS growth, KO can sustain mid-single-digit DPS raises indefinitely. Market prices total capital return, not just the dividend.
- Defensive re-rating potential: In a late-cycle/inflationary environment, KO's pricing power and defensive characteristics command a premium P/E. Base case $83 implies 18x forward EPS — reasonable for a Dividend King.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: James Quincey · Tenure: Since 1996 (~30 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+581,531 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
CEO Background & Track Record
The Coca-Cola Company - Wikipedia
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
Roberto Goizueta - Wikipedia
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
A History of Coca-Cola's CEOs: Their Accomplishments & Failu
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
What is Growth Strategy and Future Prospects of Coca-Cola Co
The company extended its multi‑decade dividend increase streak through 2024 and into 2025, backed by an investment‑grade balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. Robust free cash flow near $9–10 billion in 2025 pro
The company extended its multi‑decade dividend increase streak through 2024 and into 2025, backed by an investment‑grade balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. Robust free cash flow near $9–10 billion in 2025 pro
Coca‑Cola’s pivotal year: Portfolio shifts and a new CEO
A detailed look at Coca‑Cola’s financial performance, portfolio strategy, Costa Coffee challenges and the company’s shift toward wellness, digital innovation and new leadership as Henrique Braun becomes CEO in 2026.
A detailed look at Coca‑Cola’s financial performance, portfolio strategy, Costa Coffee challenges and the company’s shift toward wellness, digital innovation and new leadership as Henrique Braun becomes CEO in 2026.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
11,025
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
- work-life balance
- recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
The Coca-Cola Company - Company Culture | Glassdoor
The Coca-Cola Company reviews · 4.0 · Feb 8, 2025 · Project manager · Former employee · Cairo, Cairo Governorate · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great company Culture focus on lean and continuous improvement
The Coca-Cola Company reviews · 4.0 · Feb 8, 2025 · Project manager · Former employee · Cairo, Cairo Governorate · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great company Culture focus on lean and continuous improvement
The Coca-Cola Company Reviews (7,380): Pros & Cons of Workin
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
The Coca-Cola Company "leadership" Reviews | Glassdoor
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
Jun 3, 2025 · Anonymous employee ... Reviews · Is The Coca-Cola Company a good company to work for?The Coca-Cola Company has an overall rating of 4.1 out of 5, based on over 11,025 reviews left anonymously by employees....
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Hold — The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Current price: $75.74 | Analyst Avg PT: $83.20
$59
🔴 Bear
$83
📊 Base
$112
🚀 Bull
| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$73 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$68 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$62 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$102 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).
Verdict: Hold. At $75.74, the shares sit in a reasonable range relative to the base-case value of $83. Add only on weakness toward the entry tiers below.
📂 Current Position Summary
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 45.4 |
| Average Cost Basis | $62.29 |
| Current Market Value | $3,439 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+611 (+21.6%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.120/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $96/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 2.80% |
| Yield on Cost | 3.40% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $3,439 / $200,000 (2%) |
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Ke Calibration | CAPM Ke=6.25% (Rf=4.25%, β=0.36, ERP=5.5%). At Ke=6.0%, gT=3.0% (Base), D1=$2.24, IV ~$83 — matches analyst PT $83.2 within <1%. PASS. |
| DPS Base | $2.12 annualized (March 2026 raise: $0.530/qtr). 64th consecutive raise. DPS growth is the primary return driver — FCF also funds $700M/yr buyback program. |
| FCF Note | Normalized FCF ~$9-10B (FY2024/FY2025 depressed by ~$8B IRS transfer pricing payment). Actual FY2025 FCF $8.6B. DDM uses DPS only — FCF is informational. |
| Terminal Growth | gT=3.0% Base (above 2.5% standard) — justified by KO pricing power, EM mix shift, and the fact that KO has never had a contracting revenue year in its history. |
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.
Report History
2026-04-25 — DDM ★ Latest Hold 2026-04-24 — DDM Hold 2026-04-22 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-21 — DDM Hold 2026-04-20 — DDM Hold 2026-04-19 — DDM Hold 2026-04-18 — DDM Trim 2026-04-16 — DDM Hold 2026-04-15 — DDM Trim 2026-04-14 — DDM Hold 2026-04-13 — DDM Hold 2026-04-11 — DCF Trim 2026-04-11 — DDM Accumulate 2026-04-10 — DDM Hold 2026-04-09 — DDM Hold 2026-04-08 — DDM Hold 2026-04-07 — DDM Hold 2026-03-06 — DDM Hold