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KO

KO

Accumulate 2026-04-22
Model
DDM
Price at Report
$74.70
Base IV
$78.28
Bear IV
$55.20
Bull IV
$91.57
Entry Zone: 59-69 · Sell Above: 90
Bore Family Office
Bore Family Office
Valuation Report — The Coca-Cola Company (KO) • April 22, 2026
3-Stage DDM (Ke) • Discount Rate: 6.11% • Current Price: $74.70
Prepared by Lurch • Bore Family Office • Data: Finnhub, StockAnalysis.com, S&P Global Market Intelligence
🏢 Business Overview

Coca-Cola is the world's largest non-alcoholic beverage company, with a portfolio spanning sparkling soft drinks (Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta), water (Dasani, Smartwater), sports drinks (Powerade), tea (Gold Peak), coffee (Costa), and emerging categories. KO operates a capital-light franchise model — it sells concentrate/syrup to bottlers who handle manufacturing and distribution.

FY2025 revenue of $47.9B grew 1.9% YoY, driven by pricing power offsetting volume softness in developed markets. EPS of $3.04 benefited from a $1.6B tax benefit (reversing the $4.2B one-time charge in FY2024 from the refranchising of bottling operations). Organic revenue growth of ~6% and operating margin of 28.7% confirm KO's pricing power. KO has increased dividends for 62 consecutive years — a Dividend King.

Business SegmentRevenue% of TotalYoY GrowthMarginNotes
Sparkling Soft Drinks$22,100M46%+2.0%32.0%Crown jewel — Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta brands
Water & Sports$7,200M15%+1.0%22.0%Dasani, Smartwater, Powerade — mature
Juice & Dairy$4,800M10%+3.0%18.0%Minute Maid, fairlife — emerging growth
Tea & Coffee$3,800M8%+6.0%20.0%Costa, Gold Peak — fastest growing
Emerging & Other$10,040M21%+4.0%24.0%Energy, alcohol, new categories
Blended Growth Rate100%+2.7%Weighted avg across segments
📊 Business Lifecycle Stage
Business Lifecycle Stage
Stage 1
Startup
Stage 2
Hyper Growth
Stage 3
Self Funding
Stage 4
Operating Leverage
Stage 5
Capital Return
Stage 6
Decline

Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.

Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.

🔍 Quality Scorecard
MetricValueAssessment
ROIC28.0%≥12% strong
FCF Margin11.0%≥10% strong
Debt / EBITDA2.9x2–4x moderate
Revenue TrendGrowing 3yr3-year directional trend
FCF Margin TrendStable (±1pp)Directional margin trajectory
Analyst RevisionsUpward revisionsLast 90 days consensus direction
✅ Quality profile supports the valuation
📊 Financial Snapshot
Metric20212022202320242025
Revenue ($M)$38,655$43,004$45,754$47,061$47,941
Rev YoY Growth+11.3%+6.4%+2.9%+1.9%
Gross Margin60.3%58.1%59.5%61.1%61.6%
EBITDA ($M)$11,760$12,169$12,439$11,067$14,812
EBITDA Margin30.4%28.3%27.2%23.5%30.9%
Operating Income ($M)$10,308$10,909$11,311$9,992$13,762
Operating Margin26.7%25.4%24.7%21.2%28.7%
Net Income ($M)$9,771$9,542$10,714$10,631$13,107
Net Margin25.3%22.2%23.4%22.6%27.3%
EPS (diluted)$2.25$2.19$2.47$2.46$3.04
Free Cash Flow ($M)$11,258$9,534$9,747$4,741$5,296
Annual DPS$1.680$1.760$1.840$1.940$2.040
Total Debt ($M)$38,116$36,377$35,547$42,375$43,177
💹 Capital Return & Share Count Analysis
Net Share Change
-0.5% (2021→2025)
📉 Net reduction — buybacks exceed issuances
YearDiluted Shares (M)YoY ChangeBuyback Spend ($M)Buyback Yield
20214325.0M$1,2000.4%
20224328.0M+0.1%$1,4000.4%
20234308.0M-0.5%$1,1000.3%
20244302.0M-0.1%$8000.2%
20254302.0M+0.0%$6000.2%
KO shares outstanding

KO has been a steady but modest buyback program — reducing shares by only 0.5% over 5 years. The dividend is king here, not buybacks. FCF spiked in FY2021 ($11.3B) but normalized to $5-6B in FY2024-25.

⚙️ Ke (DDM)
InputValueNotes
Risk-Free Rate (Rf)4.25%10-yr US Treasury yield
Beta (β)0.340Market beta (Finnhub)
Equity Risk Premium (ERP)5.5%Damodaran US ERP
Cost of Equity (Ke)6.11%Ke = Rf + β × ERP
📈 DDM Scenarios
$55
🔴 Bear
$78
📊 Base
$92
🚀 Bull
$74.70
Current Price
$83
Analyst Avg PT
ScenarioStage 1 (Yrs 1–5)Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10)Terminal gKeIntrinsic Valuevs Price
🔴 Bear3.5%2.5%2.0%6.11%$55▼26.1%
📊 Base7.5%4.5%2.5%6.11%$78▲4.8%
🚀 Bull8.0%5.0%3.0%6.11%$92▲22.6%
Intrinsic Value vs PriceFCF Projection
📋 Full 10-Year Projection Tables
Bear Scenario
Stage 1: 3.5%  |  Stage 2: 2.5%  |  Terminal: 2.0%
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$2.111$1.990$1.99
Year 2Stage 1$2.185$1.941$3.93
Year 3Stage 1$2.262$1.893$5.82
Year 4Stage 1$2.341$1.847$7.67
Year 5Stage 1$2.423$1.801$9.47
Year 6Stage 2$2.483$1.740$11.21
Year 7Stage 2$2.546$1.681$12.89
Year 8Stage 2$2.609$1.624$14.52
Year 9Stage 2$2.674$1.568$16.08
Year 10Stage 2$2.741$1.515$17.60
TerminalTV=$68.03PV(TV)=$37.60 (68% of IV)$55.20
Intrinsic ValuePV(Divs) $17.60 + PV(TV) $37.60$55.20
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.11%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $68.03. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $37.60). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($17.60) + PV of terminal value ($37.60) = $55.20 per share.
Base Scenario
Stage 1: 7.5%  |  Stage 2: 4.5%  |  Terminal: 2.5%
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$2.193$2.067$2.07
Year 2Stage 1$2.357$2.094$4.16
Year 3Stage 1$2.534$2.121$6.28
Year 4Stage 1$2.724$2.149$8.43
Year 5Stage 1$2.929$2.177$10.61
Year 6Stage 2$3.060$2.144$12.75
Year 7Stage 2$3.198$2.112$14.86
Year 8Stage 2$3.342$2.080$16.94
Year 9Stage 2$3.493$2.048$18.99
Year 10Stage 2$3.650$2.017$21.01
TerminalTV=$103.63PV(TV)=$57.27 (73% of IV)$78.28
Intrinsic ValuePV(Divs) $21.01 + PV(TV) $57.27$78.28
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.11%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (2.5%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $103.63. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $57.27). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($21.01) + PV of terminal value ($57.27) = $78.28 per share.
Bull Scenario
Stage 1: 8.0%  |  Stage 2: 5.0%  |  Terminal: 3.0%
PeriodStageDPS / Dist.PV of DPSCumulative IV
Year 1Stage 1$2.203$2.076$2.08
Year 2Stage 1$2.379$2.113$4.19
Year 3Stage 1$2.570$2.151$6.34
Year 4Stage 1$2.775$2.189$8.53
Year 5Stage 1$2.997$2.228$10.76
Year 6Stage 2$3.147$2.205$12.96
Year 7Stage 2$3.305$2.182$15.15
Year 8Stage 2$3.470$2.159$17.30
Year 9Stage 2$3.643$2.136$19.44
Year 10Stage 2$3.826$2.114$21.55
TerminalTV=$126.70PV(TV)=$70.02 (76% of IV)$91.57
Intrinsic ValuePV(Divs) $21.55 + PV(TV) $70.02$91.57
How the price per share is derived: Each year's projected dividend is discounted back at Ke (6.11%) to get its present value. After Year 10, dividends are assumed to grow at the terminal rate (3.0%) in perpetuity — the Gordon Growth formula gives a terminal value of DPS11 / (Ke − gT) = $126.70. That terminal value is then discounted back 10 years to today's dollars (PV of TV = $70.02). Intrinsic value = PV of all dividends ($21.55) + PV of terminal value ($70.02) = $91.57 per share.
🔲 Sensitivity Table
Ke \ gT1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
4.1%$119$142$180$252$445
4.6%$99$114$136$173$242
5.1%$85$95$110$131$166
5.6%$74$82$92$105$126
6.1%$66$71$78$88$101
6.6%$59$63$69$76$85
7.1%$53$57$61$66$73
7.6%$49$51$55$59$64
8.1%$45$47$50$53$57

Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.

Sensitivity Heatmap
📉 Long-Term Price Trend Channel

Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.

Long-Term Trend Channel
🏦 Comparable Valuation
MetricKOPEPMNST5yr Avg (KO)
P/E (NTM)22.5x20.2x28.5x24.0x
EV/EBITDA21.8x18.5x20.1x22.5x
P/FCF60.6x22.8x25.3x27.0x
Div Yield2.7%3.3%1.8%3.0%
PEG2.4x2.1x2.5x2.8x
💰 Dividend / Distribution Analysis
MetricValue
Annual DPS$2.040
Current Yield2.73%
Consecutive Growth Years62
1-yr DPS CAGR+5.2%
3-yr DPS CAGR+5.4%
5-yr DPS CAGR+4.4%
10-yr DPS CAGR+5.0%
Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS)67.1%
FCF Payout Ratio165.9% ⚠️
Sustainability VerdictSafe
KO's 62-year dividend growth streak is one of the longest in corporate America. The 67% payout ratio on EPS is healthy. The FCF payout ratio appears elevated at 166% in FY2025, but that's due to a one-time FCF dip (FY2024 had a $4.2B tax charge). On normalized FCF of ~$10B, the payout is ~80-85% — high but sustainable for a capital-light franchise model. Dividend growth of 5%+ should continue.
Dividend History
🔮 Analyst Forecast Section
(a) EPS Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$2.25Actual
2022$2.19Actual
2023$2.47Actual
2024$2.46Actual
2025$3.04Actual
2026$3.14$3.32$3.4230Estimate
2027$3.31$3.56$3.6829Estimate
(b) Revenue Consensus
YearLow / ActualAvgHigh# AnalystsType
2021$38.7BActual
2022$43.0BActual
2023$45.8BActual
2024$47.1BActual
2025$47.9BActual
2026$46.9B$50.5B$52.0B30Estimate
2027$47.5B$51.4B$53.8B29Estimate
(c) Individual Analyst Price Targets
Consensus: Avg $83.20 | Range $70–$90
AnalystFirmRatingPTUpside
Peter GromUBSStrong Buy$90+20.5%
Kaumil GajrawalaJefferiesStrong Buy$90+20.5%
Steve PowersDeutsche BankStrong Buy$86+15.1%
Andrea TeixeiraJP MorganBuy$83+11.1%
Lauren LiebermanBarclaysBuy$70-6.3%
(e) Confidence Band Commentary
Analyst consensus is overwhelmingly bullish: 6 Strong Buys, 8 Buys, 1 Hold, 0 Sells. The PT range ($70–$90) is narrow relative to other stocks, reflecting KO's predictable earnings stream. EPS growth consensus of 9.4% for FY2026 and 7.1% for FY2027 aligns with management's long-term guidance of 6-8% organic revenue growth.
Analyst Forecast Confidence
Analyst Price Targets
💡 Investment Thesis
  • Bull case: KO's franchise model delivers 60%+ gross margins and pricing power that few companies can match. Emerging markets (India, Africa) represent a multi-decade growth runway. The dividend grows at 5%+ annually with 62 years of consistency — in a volatile market, KO is a pillar of certainty. At $74, the stock offers a 2.7% yield with reliable 5-6% dividend growth.
  • Bear case: KO trades at 22.5x forward EPS — a premium to PEP (20.2x) with slower revenue growth. Volume declines in developed markets (soda consumption falling) are a structural headwind. FY2025 FCF of only $5.3B was depressed and makes the P/FCF look extreme at 60x.
  • Key assumption: KO sustains 5-6% dividend growth and 6-8% organic revenue growth. If emerging market volumes accelerate, there's upside. If developed market volume declines worsen, the growth rate compresses.
  • Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (July) — look for organic revenue growth above 5% and confirmation of 5%+ dividend increase for year 63.
  • Risk: The P/FCF ratio is distorted by FY2024-25 one-time items. On normalized FCF (~$10B), the stock trades at a more reasonable 25x FCF — still premium but defensible for a Dividend King.
👔 Management Quality & Culture
CEO: James Quincey  ·  Tenure: Since 1996 (~30 yrs)
Net Insider Buys (12m)
+581,531 shares
Incentive Alignment
⚠️ Moderate

Compensation: Equity-based compensation present

CEO Background & Track Record
The Coca-Cola Company - Wikipedia
After Martin Luther King Jr. won the 1964 Nobel Peace Prize, plans for an interracial celebratory dinner in still-segregated Atlanta were not initially well supported by the city's business elite until Coca-Cola intervened. J. Paul Aus
Roberto Goizueta - Wikipedia
Roberto Críspulo Goizueta Cantera (November 18, 1931 – October 18, 1997) was a Cuban-born American business executive who served as the chairman, president, and chief executive officer (CEO) of The Coca-Cola Company from August 1980
A History of Coca-Cola's CEOs: Their Accomplishments & Failu
Amazingly, he introduced over 500 new products, including a touchscreen soda fountain that could dispense 165 different flavor combinations. He retired in 2017 due to slowing sales. ... James Quincey became CEO of Coca-Cola in 2017.
Capital Allocation & Strategy
What is Growth Strategy and Future Prospects of Coca-Cola Co
The company extended its multi‑decade dividend increase streak through 2024 and into 2025, backed by an investment‑grade balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. Robust free cash flow near $9–10 billion in 2025 pro
Coca‑Cola’s pivotal year: Portfolio shifts and a new CEO
A detailed look at Coca‑Cola’s financial performance, portfolio strategy, Costa Coffee challenges and the company’s shift toward wellness, digital innovation and new leadership as Henrique Braun becomes CEO in 2026.
Employee Ratings
Overall Rating
3.8/5 ★★★★☆
Reviews
6,382
Culture Signal
Positive
✅ Strengths
  • work-life balance
  • recommend
Employee Review Excerpts
The Coca-Cola Company - Company Culture | Glassdoor
The Coca-Cola Company reviews · 4.0 · Feb 8, 2025 · Project manager · Former employee · Cairo, Cairo Governorate · Recommend · CEO approval · Business Outlook · Pros · Great company Culture focus on lean and continuous improvement
The Coca-Cola Company Reviews (7,380): Pros & Cons of Workin
How satisfied are employees working at The Coca-Cola Company?83% of The Coca-Cola Company employees would recommend working there to a friend based on Glassdoor reviews. Employees also rated The Coca-Cola Company 3.8 out of 5 for work life
Working at The Coca-Cola Company: 6,382 Reviews | Indeed.com
6,382 reviews from The Coca-Cola Company employees about The Coca-Cola Company culture, salaries, benefits, work-life balance, management, job security, and more.
Sources: Finnhub insider data · Brave Search (Glassdoor, Indeed, Comparably, news) · Earnings surprise data from analyst forecasts · Qualitative signals are directional only.
⚖️ DDM Verdict: Accumulate — The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
Current price: $74.70 | Analyst Avg PT: $83.20
$55
🔴 Bear
$78
📊 Base
$92
🚀 Bull
TierPriceAction
Tier 1 — Starter≤$69Begin position
Tier 2 — Add≤$64Add on weakness
Tier 3 — Full≤$59Full allocation
Sell Alert≥$90Above fair value — consider trimming
How tiers are set: Tier 1 = Base IV × 0.92 (8% discount to base case). Tier 2 = midpoint of Bear & Base IV (building on meaningful weakness). Tier 3 = Bear IV × 1.05 (just above worst-case — maximum margin of safety). Sell alert = Bull IV × 0.85 (15% discount to bull case — above fair value range).

Verdict: Accumulate. At $74.70, Coca-Cola trades below its base-case DDM value of ~$78, offering a 2.7% yield with 62 years of dividend growth behind it. The stock isn't cheap on P/E, but the franchise model, pricing power, and dividend consistency justify a modest premium. Start building a position at current levels; add aggressively below $68.

📂 Current Position Summary
MetricValue
Shares Held55
Average Cost Basis$62.29
Current Market Value$4,108
Unrealized P&L$+683 (+19.9%)
Annual DPS$2.040/yr
Annual Dividend Income$112/yr
Current Yield (at price)2.73%
Yield on Cost3.28%
vs Target (~$200K)$4,108 / $200,000 (2%)
🔧 Model Notes & Calibration
AssumptionRationale / Notes
Model ChoiceKO is a classic DDM candidate: 62 consecutive years of dividend growth, 67% payout ratio, predictable cash flows, and a capital-light franchise model. The DDM captures the value of the growing dividend stream far better than a DCF, which would be distorted by KO's lumpy FCF (FY2024-25 were depressed by one-time items).
Ke BuildCost of equity of 6.11% reflects KO's ultra-low beta (0.34) — one of the lowest in the S&P 500. This pushes the DDM value higher, which is appropriate: KO IS a low-risk, low-volatility asset that deserves a lower discount rate.
Dividend GrowthStage 1 growth of 7.5% reflects management's 6-8% guidance plus the 5.2% dividend increase in FY2025. Stage 2 fades to 4.5% as KO matures toward its long-term 4-5% dividend growth trajectory. Terminal growth of 2.5% is conservative for a company with KO's pricing power.
Sanity CheckBase DDM value of ~$78 is 6% below the analyst consensus PT of $83.20. The gap reflects the DDM's conservative terminal growth of 2.5% vs. analysts who may be applying higher terminal multiples. At $74.70, the stock trades below our base value — Accumulate.
Bore Family Office • Analysis generated by Lurch • Not investment advice.