KO
KO
Coca-Cola is the world's largest non-alcoholic beverage company, with a portfolio spanning sparkling soft drinks (Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta), water (Dasani, Smartwater), sports drinks (Powerade), tea (Gold Peak), coffee (Costa), and emerging categories. KO operates a capital-light franchise model — it sells concentrate/syrup to bottlers who handle manufacturing and distribution.
FY2025 revenue of $47.9B grew 1.9% YoY, driven by pricing power offsetting volume softness in developed markets. EPS of $3.04 benefited from a $1.6B tax benefit (reversing the $4.2B one-time charge in FY2024 from the refranchising of bottling operations). Organic revenue growth of ~6% and operating margin of 28.7% confirm KO's pricing power. KO has increased dividends for 62 consecutive years — a Dividend King.
| Business Segment | Revenue | % of Total | YoY Growth | Margin | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sparkling Soft Drinks | $22,100M | 46% | +2.0% | 32.0% | Crown jewel — Coca-Cola, Sprite, Fanta brands |
| Water & Sports | $7,200M | 15% | +1.0% | 22.0% | Dasani, Smartwater, Powerade — mature |
| Juice & Dairy | $4,800M | 10% | +3.0% | 18.0% | Minute Maid, fairlife — emerging growth |
| Tea & Coffee | $3,800M | 8% | +6.0% | 20.0% | Costa, Gold Peak — fastest growing |
| Emerging & Other | $10,040M | 21% | +4.0% | 24.0% | Energy, alcohol, new categories |
| Blended Growth Rate | — | 100% | +2.7% | — | Weighted avg across segments |
Startup
Hyper Growth
Self Funding
Operating Leverage
Capital Return
Decline
Stage 5 — Capital Return: Mature business returning capital via dividends and buybacks. DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures the value being distributed to shareholders.
Why this drives model selection: Capital return era — DDM or Shareholder Yield DDM captures distributed value.
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| ROIC | 28.0% | ≥12% strong |
| FCF Margin | 11.0% | ≥10% strong |
| Debt / EBITDA | 2.9x | 2–4x moderate |
| Revenue Trend | Growing 3yr | 3-year directional trend |
| FCF Margin Trend | Stable (±1pp) | Directional margin trajectory |
| Analyst Revisions | Upward revisions | Last 90 days consensus direction |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | $38,655 | $43,004 | $45,754 | $47,061 | $47,941 |
| Rev YoY Growth | — | +11.3% | +6.4% | +2.9% | +1.9% |
| Gross Margin | 60.3% | 58.1% | 59.5% | 61.1% | 61.6% |
| EBITDA ($M) | $11,760 | $12,169 | $12,439 | $11,067 | $14,812 |
| EBITDA Margin | 30.4% | 28.3% | 27.2% | 23.5% | 30.9% |
| Operating Income ($M) | $10,308 | $10,909 | $11,311 | $9,992 | $13,762 |
| Operating Margin | 26.7% | 25.4% | 24.7% | 21.2% | 28.7% |
| Net Income ($M) | $9,771 | $9,542 | $10,714 | $10,631 | $13,107 |
| Net Margin | 25.3% | 22.2% | 23.4% | 22.6% | 27.3% |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.25 | $2.19 | $2.47 | $2.46 | $3.04 |
| Free Cash Flow ($M) | $11,258 | $9,534 | $9,747 | $4,741 | $5,296 |
| Annual DPS | $1.680 | $1.760 | $1.840 | $1.940 | $2.040 |
| Total Debt ($M) | $38,116 | $36,377 | $35,547 | $42,375 | $43,177 |
| Year | Diluted Shares (M) | YoY Change | Buyback Spend ($M) | Buyback Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4325.0M | — | $1,200 | 0.4% |
| 2022 | 4328.0M | +0.1% | $1,400 | 0.4% |
| 2023 | 4308.0M | -0.5% | $1,100 | 0.3% |
| 2024 | 4302.0M | -0.1% | $800 | 0.2% |
| 2025 | 4302.0M | +0.0% | $600 | 0.2% |
KO has been a steady but modest buyback program — reducing shares by only 0.5% over 5 years. The dividend is king here, not buybacks. FCF spiked in FY2021 ($11.3B) but normalized to $5-6B in FY2024-25.
| Input | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk-Free Rate (Rf) | 4.25% | 10-yr US Treasury yield |
| Beta (β) | 0.340 | Market beta (Finnhub) |
| Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 5.5% | Damodaran US ERP |
| Cost of Equity (Ke) | 6.11% | Ke = Rf + β × ERP |
| Scenario | Stage 1 (Yrs 1–5) | Stage 2 (Yrs 6–10) | Terminal g | Ke | Intrinsic Value | vs Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🔴 Bear | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 6.11% | $55 | ▼26.1% |
| 📊 Base | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 6.11% | $78 | ▲4.8% |
| 🚀 Bull | 8.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 6.11% | $92 | ▲22.6% |
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.111 | $1.990 | $1.99 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.185 | $1.941 | $3.93 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.262 | $1.893 | $5.82 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.341 | $1.847 | $7.67 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.423 | $1.801 | $9.47 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $2.483 | $1.740 | $11.21 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $2.546 | $1.681 | $12.89 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $2.609 | $1.624 | $14.52 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $2.674 | $1.568 | $16.08 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $2.741 | $1.515 | $17.60 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$68.03 | PV(TV)=$37.60 (68% of IV) | $55.20 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $17.60 + PV(TV) $37.60 | $55.20 |
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.193 | $2.067 | $2.07 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.357 | $2.094 | $4.16 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.534 | $2.121 | $6.28 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.724 | $2.149 | $8.43 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.929 | $2.177 | $10.61 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.060 | $2.144 | $12.75 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.198 | $2.112 | $14.86 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.342 | $2.080 | $16.94 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.493 | $2.048 | $18.99 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.650 | $2.017 | $21.01 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$103.63 | PV(TV)=$57.27 (73% of IV) | $78.28 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $21.01 + PV(TV) $57.27 | $78.28 |
| Period | Stage | DPS / Dist. | PV of DPS | Cumulative IV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | Stage 1 | $2.203 | $2.076 | $2.08 |
| Year 2 | Stage 1 | $2.379 | $2.113 | $4.19 |
| Year 3 | Stage 1 | $2.570 | $2.151 | $6.34 |
| Year 4 | Stage 1 | $2.775 | $2.189 | $8.53 |
| Year 5 | Stage 1 | $2.997 | $2.228 | $10.76 |
| Year 6 | Stage 2 | $3.147 | $2.205 | $12.96 |
| Year 7 | Stage 2 | $3.305 | $2.182 | $15.15 |
| Year 8 | Stage 2 | $3.470 | $2.159 | $17.30 |
| Year 9 | Stage 2 | $3.643 | $2.136 | $19.44 |
| Year 10 | Stage 2 | $3.826 | $2.114 | $21.55 |
| Terminal | — | TV=$126.70 | PV(TV)=$70.02 (76% of IV) | $91.57 |
| Intrinsic Value | — | — | PV(Divs) $21.55 + PV(TV) $70.02 | $91.57 |
| Ke \ gT | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | $119 | $142 | $180 | $252 | $445 |
| 4.6% | $99 | $114 | $136 | $173 | $242 |
| 5.1% | $85 | $95 | $110 | $131 | $166 |
| 5.6% | $74 | $82 | $92 | $105 | $126 |
| 6.1% | $66 | $71 | $78 | $88 | $101 |
| 6.6% | $59 | $63 | $69 | $76 | $85 |
| 7.1% | $53 | $57 | $61 | $66 | $73 |
| 7.6% | $49 | $51 | $55 | $59 | $64 |
| 8.1% | $45 | $47 | $50 | $53 | $57 |
Green = >10% above current price. Red = >10% below. Gold = within ±10%.
Log-linear trend fitted to full price history. ±1.5σ bands. Green shaded zone = bottom 25% of historical range — historically attractive entry.
| Metric | KO | PEP | MNST | 5yr Avg (KO) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (NTM) | 22.5x | 20.2x | 28.5x | 24.0x |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.8x | 18.5x | 20.1x | 22.5x |
| P/FCF | 60.6x | 22.8x | 25.3x | 27.0x |
| Div Yield | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% |
| PEG | 2.4x | 2.1x | 2.5x | 2.8x |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Annual DPS | $2.040 |
| Current Yield | 2.73% |
| Consecutive Growth Years | 62 |
| 1-yr DPS CAGR | +5.2% |
| 3-yr DPS CAGR | +5.4% |
| 5-yr DPS CAGR | +4.4% |
| 10-yr DPS CAGR | +5.0% |
| Payout Ratio (DPS/EPS) | 67.1% |
| FCF Payout Ratio | 165.9% ⚠️ |
| Sustainability Verdict | Safe |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $2.25 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $2.19 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $2.47 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $2.46 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $3.04 | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $3.14 | $3.32 | $3.42 | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $3.31 | $3.56 | $3.68 | 29 | Estimate |
| Year | Low / Actual | Avg | High | # Analysts | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $38.7B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2022 | $43.0B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2023 | $45.8B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2024 | $47.1B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2025 | $47.9B | — | — | — | Actual |
| 2026 | $46.9B | $50.5B | $52.0B | 30 | Estimate |
| 2027 | $47.5B | $51.4B | $53.8B | 29 | Estimate |
| Analyst | Firm | Rating | PT | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Grom | UBS | Strong Buy | $90 | +20.5% |
| Kaumil Gajrawala | Jefferies | Strong Buy | $90 | +20.5% |
| Steve Powers | Deutsche Bank | Strong Buy | $86 | +15.1% |
| Andrea Teixeira | JP Morgan | Buy | $83 | +11.1% |
| Lauren Lieberman | Barclays | Buy | $70 | -6.3% |
- Bull case: KO's franchise model delivers 60%+ gross margins and pricing power that few companies can match. Emerging markets (India, Africa) represent a multi-decade growth runway. The dividend grows at 5%+ annually with 62 years of consistency — in a volatile market, KO is a pillar of certainty. At $74, the stock offers a 2.7% yield with reliable 5-6% dividend growth.
- Bear case: KO trades at 22.5x forward EPS — a premium to PEP (20.2x) with slower revenue growth. Volume declines in developed markets (soda consumption falling) are a structural headwind. FY2025 FCF of only $5.3B was depressed and makes the P/FCF look extreme at 60x.
- Key assumption: KO sustains 5-6% dividend growth and 6-8% organic revenue growth. If emerging market volumes accelerate, there's upside. If developed market volume declines worsen, the growth rate compresses.
- Catalyst: Q2 2026 earnings (July) — look for organic revenue growth above 5% and confirmation of 5%+ dividend increase for year 63.
- Risk: The P/FCF ratio is distorted by FY2024-25 one-time items. On normalized FCF (~$10B), the stock trades at a more reasonable 25x FCF — still premium but defensible for a Dividend King.
Compensation: Equity-based compensation present
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| Tier | Price | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Tier 1 — Starter | ≤$69 | Begin position |
| Tier 2 — Add | ≤$64 | Add on weakness |
| Tier 3 — Full | ≤$59 | Full allocation |
| Sell Alert | ≥$90 | Above fair value — consider trimming |
Verdict: Accumulate. At $74.70, Coca-Cola trades below its base-case DDM value of ~$78, offering a 2.7% yield with 62 years of dividend growth behind it. The stock isn't cheap on P/E, but the franchise model, pricing power, and dividend consistency justify a modest premium. Start building a position at current levels; add aggressively below $68.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Shares Held | 55 |
| Average Cost Basis | $62.29 |
| Current Market Value | $4,108 |
| Unrealized P&L | $+683 (+19.9%) |
| Annual DPS | $2.040/yr |
| Annual Dividend Income | $112/yr |
| Current Yield (at price) | 2.73% |
| Yield on Cost | 3.28% |
| vs Target (~$200K) | $4,108 / $200,000 (2%) |
| Assumption | Rationale / Notes |
|---|---|
| Model Choice | KO is a classic DDM candidate: 62 consecutive years of dividend growth, 67% payout ratio, predictable cash flows, and a capital-light franchise model. The DDM captures the value of the growing dividend stream far better than a DCF, which would be distorted by KO's lumpy FCF (FY2024-25 were depressed by one-time items). |
| Ke Build | Cost of equity of 6.11% reflects KO's ultra-low beta (0.34) — one of the lowest in the S&P 500. This pushes the DDM value higher, which is appropriate: KO IS a low-risk, low-volatility asset that deserves a lower discount rate. |
| Dividend Growth | Stage 1 growth of 7.5% reflects management's 6-8% guidance plus the 5.2% dividend increase in FY2025. Stage 2 fades to 4.5% as KO matures toward its long-term 4-5% dividend growth trajectory. Terminal growth of 2.5% is conservative for a company with KO's pricing power. |
| Sanity Check | Base DDM value of ~$78 is 6% below the analyst consensus PT of $83.20. The gap reflects the DDM's conservative terminal growth of 2.5% vs. analysts who may be applying higher terminal multiples. At $74.70, the stock trades below our base value — Accumulate. |